Modi Tsunami? (Part II)

My last blog kind of left few things hanging. There were some obvious questions and rejoinders to be added. If Congress and Soniagress are so shrewd then how come they do not dismantle Modi for challenging them? What is the source of his power? And what’s next?

Before I dive in, let me reiterate. All this pravachan is with confidence that Modi will win this election handsomely and become next PM. If he doesn’t for whatever reason, voter fraud, voting machine fraud etc., then, well, we are in trouble.

The central government lead by Congress party approached the Modi ‘problem’ with two pronged strategy. One was to entangle him riots, fake encounter or some other flimsy legal case. Second, was to hammer him down through media. I am sure there must be a lot more that was going on behind the scene. For example, the recent Sunday Guardian article shed light on nefarious activities purported by Hillary Clinton as the foreign minister of U.S. She tasked NGO from Nordic countries to find mass graves of Gujarat riots. Even if a single bone was to be found, she was ready lodge a complaint to UN and put sanctions on India. And the article further mentions that this task was done with active help of couple of central ministers and it further insinuates that Sonia was supporting this clandestine mission. Apart from a hilarious instance where the search party mistook buffalo bones for human ones and prematurely celebrated, they did not find anything. And, that’s because there was actually nothing.  Even the Special Task Force Investigation (STI) appointed and governed by Supreme Court of India did not find any wrongdoing on Modi’s part in Gujarat riots. So from siding with anti-national forces to cajoling Supreme Court into action, the government led by Congress and Soniagress left no stone unturned on countering Modi through legal system.

Then they tried their best in attacking Modi through media. The relentless scrutiny of print and digital media on Gujarat and Modi was numbing. These people all but convicted Modi of crime against humanity. The media onslaught, they thought, would impact electoral success that Modi was enjoying. Nothing worked because there is a crucial difference between Modi and the Delhi ‘lutyenites’ as Tavleen Singh calls them. Modi has a very big mass base. He is not in power because favors are thrown at him by ‘high-command’. He has earned it – through his development, through his oration, through shrewd political moves - he kept connecting with people. In democracy people’s support tantamounts to having a combo of  Karna’s kavach-kundal and Arjuna’s Indra-astra. Pretty awesome I would say!  He keeps getting elected by people of Gujarat and his shrewd marketing tactics means he has loyal and vociferous supporters outside of Gujarat.

A more nuanced point to note - Since he did this on his own, apart from gratitude, he doesn’t owe any favors (or money!) to anyone. That obviously saves him a lot of time, which to his credit; he ably uses to make further development

There is another source of power. And that is his clean image. He does not have a single corruption charge against him. In fact, there is not even a single accusation against him. Even the fertile mind of Kejariwal couldn’t conjure anything. The best he had was the supposed cozy relationship between Adani and Modi. Of course, it’s altogether different matter that the land dealings of Modi were praised by the Supreme Court. Truth stands no chance against Kerajriwal! In this day and age where the scams have reached astronomical amounts, it is hard to find a clean politician with enough power to reach the PM post. His ‘wife’ lives on her own and Modi’s siblings make their money through jobs, that is, they own no businesses.

I hear the recently published book of Manmohan’s media advisor is quite illuminating in this regard. I haven’t had opportunity to read the book as yet but the reviews make it clear that Manmohan was systematically made redundant by Sonia and her ilk. Whatever power he had was mostly used towards placating government’s allies. The Congress, its ministers, politicians and all the leeches on it formed a kind of eco system that served them well, nation be damned. Especially after an unexpected victory in 2009, these people completely forgot that they are in Delhi to serve the people. They were busy fighting each-other and to curry more favors from Sonia. Pretty much all of them completely lost the track of Modi who was positioning himself for Delhi. They thought raking up Gujarat riots would be enough but unfortunately for them (and fortunately for us!), the dam wasn’t good enough for a tsunami.

And, this tsunami is about to wash off the shady, underworld-esque, sycophant, arrogant, power-drunk, corrupt, incompetent, nepotism and anti-national Congress government of Delhi

Modi Tsunami?

The elections are in full swing and the opinion polls are suggesting resounding victory for Modi and BJP. I personally do feel that BJP will get closer to 250 on its own. But this is not a math calculation. And, feelings have no value. Because if that was the case then Congress, with their listless, powerless, incompetent, morally and ethically corrupt PM (i.e. our dear Manmohan), would not have won the 2004 and 2009 election. In both of those elections opinion polls had suggested strong BJP current which was completely absent from the poll results! 

I hope the history does not repeat itself this time.

Election time usually time also brings the political vitriol to the surface. I think most of this criticism and back and forth of accusation is a staged drama. Especially in last couple of decades when the corruption went through the roof, you need to work with politicians / ministers from all parties to ensure one, you can continue the corrupt ways and second, to not to get caught. But at the same time to maintain the visage of political fight these politicians ‘fight’ with each other in front of crowd. It’s all good, except for the corruption of course. It is a good thing they fight only with accusation rather than guns. But this election is different. The hatred and contempt thrown Modi’s way is real. Politicians from across the country, save for the NDA allies, have pointed their guns towards one person. All these people, especially the ‘Soniagress’, genuinely hate Modi ji. One get the feeling that per these stooges Modi has no right to contest national elections. When Sonia says that Modi and BJP will destroy the ‘Hindustaniyat’, she means that. And in a way this is true too. Of course, her definition of ‘Bharatiyata’ is little different. I think she thinks true Bharatiyata is Bharatiya being slave of her.

Forget about 2002 riots, even if hadn’t happened, the opposition to Modi would have been equally strong. This is because he is sure to destabilize the coterie of Delhi, assiduously build by Congressites over last 60 odd years. And he will impact the Congress culture in two ways – power and money.

The cliché that power is money is true only certain extent. In Delhi, Congress cultivates power for survival. The equation works this way – hold on to the power at any cost and money –tons and tons of it, will follow. And, there is a time tested formula to get this equation right. In this power pyramid Gandhi family sits at the top, always. The source of money flows to them and power emanates from them. The power game becomes a game unto itself since serving people or nation takes the back-seat. As long as you are committed to keeping Gandhis in power, you shall prosper. This model is similar to Mughal structure. And just like Mughal Sultans would venture out to take ‘care’ of rebel appointees, Gandhis either sidelined or worse, killed the local appointees who gained too much power. (Rajesh Pilot, Sindia, YSR?) Moreover, the regional power brokers such as DMK et. Al also had to stay within their state borders. The Gandhis ensured that regional politician do not threaten their standing in Delhi. The Delhi was untouchable. Either they will rule it directly or in rare instances, their appointees would be put up as rag dolls. Another important tactic they succeeded in was handling the so called elites – media as well as social, within Delhi. They ably managed the media, the academics and so called ‘thinkers’ in Delhi through favors (inam!) and other such means.

Barring the era of P.V. Narsimharao government, this power structure remained intact. Even Vajapyee government couldn’t dent it. And then of course during the era of our ‘great’ Manmohan government, the la familia regained whatever power it had lost and then some. The generation of Congress politicians who owe their existence to the bread crumbs from Gandhi family now has their second generation in motion. The second generation obviously is more submissive to the Gandhi family than their elders. The cycle continues.

The hold of la familia can still be debated because power in and in itself is hard to quantify. But corruption is very apparent and dollar value can be put on the scandals. This is where the second act of Congressites regales in full glory. The corruption even by Congress’s standards has broken all records in last ten years. And if one looks closely then the actors in these biggest scandals includes not only the Congress ministers but also regional politicians. The ‘wealth’ so to speak is being distributed among the lesser actors. This may be because Congress had to share the illicit money to stay in the power or perhaps because scams were of such staggering proportions that they couldn’t possibly gobble it alone. In any case the allies as well as Congressites established a very successful business model of siphoning billions of dollars out of India. The power was still with Gandhis but the fruits were shared with everyone. For this business model to work staying in the power was paramount. No matter what the cost is, they have to literally rule Delhi.

And then there is Modi!

For last ten years Congress’s power over Delhi was absolute. The so called opposition i.e. BJP was either lost or silent. Congress did as it pleases as if the throwback era of Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi. But this year’s electoral change is not a merely change in winds but a potential tsunami that will wash off all the dirt that Congress has built in Delhi.

Let’s hope that tsunami actually materializes.

The Political Start-Up - AAP

Election is on everyone's mind. Whether one likes Modi or not, the undeniable truth is that his candidacy has forced millions of people to think or talk about up-coming election. It's an achievement in itself. One more factor that briefly threatened to make this election more interesting is emergence of Kejariwal and his Aam Aadami Party. Him winning Delhi election was a watershed moment and should rightly be celebrated as epitome of our democratic process. People voted for change, people voted for honesty and in the process, voters also slapped the entrenched political establishment. Though I am a Modi supporter (just in case it was apparent from my prior blogs!), I respected Kejariwal and hoped for his continuing success. But it proved to be a mirage. The ensuing events after Kejariwal becoming CM of Delhi were both unexpected and unfortunate. Instead of building on electoral success, Kejariwal actively undermined himself and opted to go short on himself. Kejariwal worked hard and relentlessly in his beliefs and I thought, he could achieve so much more. I already ranted about Kejariwal in my prior blog. No need to add more to it. But I couldn’t help myself from dwelling on opportunity lost.

I had extensive discussion on the topic of Kejariwal and AAP with a colleague of mine. Needless to say he is a staunch AAP supporter and he presented some valid points. It made me rethink about AAP and Kejariwal for couple of days but at the end it actually increased my resentment and disappointment for Kejariwal. My colleague made following points:

• AAP is a start-up. The corruption has completely gone out of hands in India. People have just accepted corrupt and immoral activities as a new norm. AAP raises voice against it. In theory the party does give hope and strength to take a stand against status quo. 
• AAP is not based on the caste, religion or regional politics. The party is concerned about making lives better by holding politicians and bureaucrats to honest and moral standards. 
• AAP is a credible and positive counter-force to current crop of political parties that are deeply entrenched in Delhi circle.  
• He understands that AAP is a no-show in this election but he is investing in AAP – a start-up with a hope that they will grow and pay good dividends to the electorate in next five years or so.   

Though I would think Modi ji also as a positive force that is about to destabilize the Delhi culture, all in all, I agree with my friend here. It’s a unique perspective that takes the long view of this moment. It also somewhat lessens the pain of watching Kejariwal faltering in this election. Discussions aside, the reality is quite different though. Even if we consider AAP as a start-up then the ideas or ‘products’ they are putting on the table are already not resonating with its customers i.e. with voters. And without new voters i.e. without fresh capital, this start-up will fold within next five years. 

I think Kejariwal and AAP made couple of strategic mistakes after their grand show in Delhi assembly elections. And it is bound to affect survival of this start-up. 

• Kejariwal should have continued with his stint as a CM in Delhi. His antics and all, he showed his ineptness in governing a polity. He says he left the post for his ideals, for what he stands for. But if that is the case then he shouldn’t have joined the politics and stayed on course with Anna. Politics, apart from Ram-Rajya era, is another word for compromise. But a true good politician stays on course and ultimately achieves what he set for. The problems with Lokpal or with Delhi police or the interference of central government in Delhi government are not new. If he had shown that he could govern ably in spite of these issues then it would have shown to the voters that one doesn’t need to be corrupt to govern.

• The second blunder, the biggest one in that, was to target Modi on a national level. Perhaps, he thought since Congress is going to lose this national election badly, his political opponent is Modi. But there are couple of inherent fault in this thinking. One, Congress was in power in Delhi for last ten years. Those ten years are littered with staggering level of corruption. People are fed-up with Congress lead scandals, lack of leadership and price rise. In short, voters are angry at Congress, not at Modi. I am not saying BJP doesn’t have corrupt politicians in its fold, they do but the fact is that under Modi, Gujrat has progressed quite a bit and he has provided stable and decisive leadership. And most importantly there is not a single corruption charge against Modi! The strategy to target Modi instead of further chipping away Congress voters by going after Rahul or Sonia or for that matter, Shiela Dixit is proving to be a grand failure.

Doing political mistakes is okay, any new entrant has a learning curve. But with his antics, Kejariwal has a very short rope to climb out of mess. I don’t think voters will be affording many chances to him. The sad part is, now that he has jumped into politics, he cannot go back to being an activist. Not only we lost an honest and effective activist but in the process, we did not even gain a honest politician either!