It is always fun to watch Rahul Gandhi. He is not exactly a fool though he acts like one. He dances around with the words when it is fairly evident that he scarcely understands the words he utters. Rahul's political strategy is unhinged, lacks any cohesive direction, and is tone-deaf. The spurts of action followed by an extended holiday have been the only constant of his political career. Just look at the recently concluded, randomly named, 'Bharat Jodo Yatra'. With all the beard growing, Saddam looks led him to come back to barking about Adani only. He was shouting himself hoarse about Adani and Ambani before the 'Yatra'. Though he has conspicuously dropped Ambani from his accusations, it won't be long before Ambanis make a 'come back'. By the way, Rahul Gandhi was supposed to speak in terms of the President of India's speech at the start of the session. This was not meant to be an unhinged tirade against those he considers his enemies. Of course, decorum and responsibilities have never been his forte. He is also not in public talking about the recently presented Budget. The Budget of 2023 is the last of the major Budgets presented by the Modi government before the Lok Sabha polls of 2024. A budget in 2024 will be presented before the elections but it is likely to be a lame duck since the government elected post-2024 elections will surely make changes to it. Yet Rahul decides to skip the whole thing beyond giving some sound bytes? Sometimes I wonder if he is working for BJP. He is like a trojan horse of the BJP in the Congress camp.
But I am here to make a point in favor of Rahul. I want him to succeed in his mission of Bharat Jodo Yatra. Bizarrely, Rahul is critical for the success of emerging India.
In the last general election Congress party still held on to almost 20% of the vote share. These vote shares are scattered across the country. A key aspect to note here is that the vote share is for Lok Sabha elections. For example, Congress recently won the Vidhan Sabha state elections in Himachal Pradesh but in the last two Lok Sabha elections Congress has not won a single parliamentary seat. The state is a two-party state and Congress still holds almost 40% of votes in Lok Sabha elections. The state of Himachal is small but provides us with a good marker for the rest of the country. Though the vote share varies, the votes have splintered across the board. Congress is quite strong both in Madhya Pradesh and in Rajasthan but they have won exactly one Lok Sabha seat in the last two general elections. The party is completely decimated in UP and WB though.
Now if Congress is to go down further then the vote share is up for grabs. There are always strong regional players like TRS in Telangana or CPI in Kerala or even, TMC in WB who will get stronger. Which means their regional arm-flexing will become more potent. New entrants - unsavory ones like MIM and awful ones like AAP will also find an opportunity in grabbing that vote share. We have seen that happening both in Delhi and in Punjab where Congress vote share en-mass moved to AAP. And Muslim vote share both in UP and Bihar partially deserted Congress and moved to MIM. These small regional upstarts are exceptionally myopic in their view and detrimental to the growth of our country. AAP, for example, has readily jumped into bed with Khalistanis to win the Punjab elections. Their pandering to Khalistanis will not only lead to bloodshed in near future but will create a national security threat for India. AAP's and specifically, Kejriwal's lust for power has no limits. He will go to any extent to win. He won't think twice before siding with Pakistan if it will get him a Muslim vote share. The only reason Kejariwal is not speaking on China's behalf is that China is currently in alliance with Congress and there is no space or money for Kejariwal yet. Similarly, the history of MIM is full of Islamic fundamentalism and anti-Hindu rioting. MIMs forefathers butchered Hindus during the anti-Hindu pogrom of 1948 while current leaders of the party, especially the Owais brothers have regularly threatened Hindus in public forums. They carry the flames of 'independence from Hindus' mentality. The political legitimacy they are vying for on a pan-India level is nothing short of a disaster for the country.
Another key point to note here is, keeping Congress's vote share intact means total disruption in Opposition. The national-level outlook of non-BJP parties is somewhat hilarious. We have a bunch of thuggish, strongmen (and women!) like TMC, DMK, SP, and wannabes like TRS (though TRS is much better than most when it comes to the development of the state!). These parties know they do not and will not be able to have any sort of national imprint. Yet, they can all come together and elect a leader to represent them if they ever smell near victory in the general elections. Congress and especially Gandhis could never stomach a secondary role. If they are somewhat in a position of bargaining, they will either impose their will (i.e. Rahul) on the leadership or will disrupt the opposition unity. Any of these scenarios is critical for the BJP's success in 2024.
But why is it that only BJP should win in the next election? That's because they are the only national party left with some sort of sanity. Congress is rudderless and full of hubris. The regional parties are power-hungry, myopic (I said that before, didn't I?), without much of a national imprint. The reality is that there is nothing democratic about any of the regional outfits since most of them function like family-owned mafia businesses. If they come to power through coalition then Khuda Bachaye" Remember the mid-1990 era of IK Gujral and HD Deve Gowda?
The charisma of Modi is not just intact but it has grown substantially since the last election. And at this point, his popularity and pan-India appeal rival only Indira Gandhi's peak in the 1980s. BJP also has built a strong cadre-based organization and exceptionally well-oiled election machinery. But Indian politics and voters cannot be taken for granted. The country is vast in every possible facet. The aspirations and the expectations are a web of contradiction. Balancing all of it is an incredibly tough task. Yet, Modi and BJP are somehow managing to do it for the last 9 years. There are some misses, some blunders, and some mistakes but overall the report card is positive. And Rahul Gandhi is critical to India having similar positive report cards for next decade or so.
