Saturday, August 19, 2023

The General Election of 2024 - Making of Great Chivda!

For those who are uninitiated - Chivda is a mixture. The food is popular partly because you never know what ingredient you will taste next. In Maharashtra or among the Marathi people, it's also used as a euphemism for a mess.

And that's exactly what the current Indian political situation looks like. You never know what will happen next or who will speak what next. You also never know who is the Prime Minster candidate. The so-called 'Chanakya' of Indian politics has his party in tatters. He was supposed to be leading the opposition effort to bring down the Modi government. Now he is trying to count how many MLAs he is left with. In the confusion, he is making new and contradictory statements every other day. I don't know if he is confused or if he still thinks he is tricking others. As Lincoln (allegedly!) had famously said, you can some people sometimes but you cannot fool all people all the time! 

The situation with Congress is more perplexing. They just won the Karnataka state election. This should 'refill' their empty coffers (the state Deputy Chief Minister has already told everyone that there is no money left for development. One doesn't have to wonder where all money will go!). Yet, the party is acting as if they are a non-existent force. The party still commands a 20% vote share in the country and yet, they meekly capitulated to the strong-arm tactics of AAP and Kejariwal. It was astonishing to Congress agreed to AAP's demand of opposing an ordinance on the governance of Delhi, that was always going to sail through the parliament. Is there no one in Congress who thinks rationally, thinks about ROI, or thinks about the party's future? AAP has always eaten into Congress vote share. AAP has not been able to make any serious dent in BJP's vote share. By supporting AAP in their childish game against the Central govt., Congress has gifted their vote share in Delhi to AAP. (which in the short term and from the perspective of the Delhi assembly election scenario, is bad news for the BJP) But somehow, despite missteps after missteps, Congress believes they are the pole position around which all opposition parties of India should gather and fight against Modi govt. in the next elections? The think tank in Congress should get their heads checked because if two rupees worth of a blogger like me can see through this stupidity then I wonder what sort of knuckleheads are running the show in Congress! 

There are a host of regional ambitions running wild. Some have personal vendettas like Nitish Kumar who is running out of allies to backstab. Yet, he believes Modi is the villain here. Vendetta politics can get you returns in the short term but on a grand level like the Indian general election and over the long term, personal vendetta will lead only to disaster. Nitish has been CM of Bihar for almost twenty years and back in 2005, he was primarily elected to throw out the Laloo gang. It is rather sad to see him now joining the Laloo gang in his attempt to take revenge on Modi. How will that serve anyone? And most importantly, do these people think that voters won't see through this game? 

Then there is Mamta. She is ready to kill anyone who will voice against her. She has done that multiple times. The bloodbath after the last assembly elections in Bengal was so bad that even god-awful people like Rajdeep Sardesai had to acknowledge the violence. Unfortunately, her violent politics means she cannot get out of Bengal and set the national stage for her ambition. Yet, she believes she is or should be the kingmaker in the next elections. The largest party by seats in the 2019 general election was BJP with more than 300 seats and Mamta's party, which is the fourth largest party by seats, won 22 seats. BJP has a vote share of more than 37% while Mamta's party has a 4% vote share. The party is decidedly regional and still, Mamta believes she is a PM candidate. I don't know what is the thought process here but the mixture of ambition and personal rivalry seems to be at play. 

I talked about only some of the key actors from the opposition camp. There are a host of competing personalities and parties that are in play. All this drama but unfortunately, the sad reality is there is no true opposition. And a functioning democracy should always have a capable and thoughtful opposition. These parties are family-run fiefdoms who just want to survive at any cost. There is no vision, there is no new thought. It's just noise. And this is the best we will have to make do with.