I know I know I was the one who wrote “Endulkar” blog some time ago. Call me a hypocrite or anything but at least I am ready to stand up to my fault. One lesson I learned is that no matter what, one should never write off a Champion. Champions are rarest of rare breed and hard to recognize but then Sachin's case is no secret. All though for what ever it's worth I must say that even in my last blog on him I expressed my admiration and respect for him. The reason for my recent epiphany was his blasting against Aussie in recent One Day international. I think it will be huge injustice to him if we see him only through the prism of statistics. Not that he comes out any less in that department. The staggering amount of runs he accumulated puts him in a rarefied air that’s usually reserved for grand masters of any trade. In fact, he doesn’t even have any other company or competition there. There are good players, there are great players and then there is Sachin Tendulkar.
Statistics is just one aspect of his grand career. To get obsessed by it is like getting lost in the woods and missing out the jungle. He started at the tender age of 17 when most of the kids are busy in doing nothing. Most of the kids are obsessed with some sort of sport or some sort of hobby but that’s the extent it goes it. Particularly in India the focus on education is so intense that if by any chance a kid is gifted with skills in certain sport then he or she is surely won’t be using them. But Sachin was one of millions. His early exploits in his school days were legendary by any standards. The way he scored runs and the way he would hit kids of his age around the ground is part of folklore. Of course he was lucky to be born in the city of Mumbai where Cricket has fanatical following. The city has produced numerous cricketing luminaries of international fame. At one point 80% percent of Indian team would hail from Mumbai alone. This helped Sachin in a sense that he was spotted early and was put on fast-track for Indian team. Still to debut against Pakistan in Pakistan was something. Not only you need talent to face Imran, Wasim and Waqar (it was Waqar Younis’s debut series too) but you need balls to stand against the these fiercest rivals. He had first one in ample and he showed second part quite successfully. Thus a star was truly born. But that still doesn’t truly capture his greatness.
The true greatness lies in his consistency. In recently ODI match against Australia it was fascinating to see him batting with Ravindra Jadeja who was born in 1988, merely a year before Sachin made his debut. For last twenty years he is scoring runs in every corner of the world and against every opponent possible. The sheer amount of travel and preparation would bring down mightiest of travelers. Then add the controversies surrounding game, internal team politics and generational change in the cricketing fraternity and the true character of a warrior starts to emerge. Oh and did I mention the burden of hundreds of millions of people for whom anything less than a century is a failure? The tremendous love showered on him by public comes at a very steep price.
His endurance, his all most religious zeal to score run and hunger to win for India over the span of twenty years truly makes him the greatest. Yes he scored runs but that’s merely a by product. It only shows that he knows his trade well. He is humble and never makes fuss about his status. He still talks in Marathi and still mingles with commoner whenever it’s feasible. Your truly was fortunate to see him up close twice. He was serene, focused and without an iota of attitude. He still carried his own kit and practiced with local kids (who are certain to tell the tale to their grandkids) telling them to throw ball at him as fast as possible. It was quite surprising to see how he remains firmly rooted in ground in such a limelight for twenty years.
I think he deserves Bharat-Ratna. And it shouldn’t be conferred to him when he is too old to walk but right now when he is still thrilling millions with his skills. I feel fortunate that I was part of the generation that witnessed the legend as it happened.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Saturday, November 07, 2009
The state of Afghanistan
As the debate over whether US should be sending more troops to Afghanistan rages the real question remains unanswered. In fact, no one is even asking the real question. The question do we need a nation called Afghanistan? What will happen if there is no Afghanistan? Actually you can ask that question about any country? But that will just be a stupid counter-argument. A country can be defined as a society living within same geographic region sharing the common history and culture working towards the common goal of prosperous future. In that sense, Afghanistan can be called as country. Even if we disregard the fact that no one there wants to work for prosperous future, they do share similar culture and history. But the point that tends to get lost it that the notion of a country or nation-state is itself relatively new. It’s a legacy of European colonist and has resulted into huge number of human loss in last sixty years or so. The tribal/nations of Africa especially are paying humongous price.
Afghanistan was never a unified entity. Whenever people talk about Afghanistan the timeline usually goes as far back as to Soviet invasion. For current memory that was the first time Afghanistan played its role as a playground for superpowers to fight. All though only because of Saudi money and American ammunition that Afghans could defeat Soviets, the fact that they won’t budge even in the face of insurmountable odds is quite something. And it may sound harsh but that’s what they like. They like to fight. If not foreign invaders then they will fight with each other or they will invade others (historically, they would invade Delhi). All the talk them having rich culture is kind of mystifying because if war and violence can be defined as culture then they do come out on the top of ‘cultured’ nations.
Afghanistan –known as Gandhar in ancient time, was always considered as frontier post for India. You cross Afghanistan’s rugged terrain and you get passage to reach fertile plains of Ganges. Alexander came the same way and he all most succeeded. The Huns did the same thing all though they settled and got assimilated in the local population. Still Afghanistan was known for higher seat of education. Taxila university was one of the biggest university in the world. But it changed completed with advent of Islam.
The first recorded invasion of Muslim Arabs was in 712 A.D. All though the invaders reached Multan, they turned back after looting. Then it became a frontier for Muslim zealots in their quest to expand Dar-Ul-Islam i.e. Muslim dominion. The region bore the bloodiest brunt. The native population was decimated or converted. The entire infrastructure was destroyed and places of learning were burnt down. Gradually all that’s left was warring and blood thirsty people wanting to and waiting for next fight. What was interesting is that once a Sultanate established their grip on Delhi (there were a factory line of them) the goal would be stop invasion of another foreign invader from the gates of Afghanistan or to stop the invasion of Afghans itself. Mughal Empire’s fight to keep that area under control was largely unsuccessful. Except for the brief period of 1650’s and 1660’s, Mughals were draining their treasury as well as soldiers into abyss.
With the fall of Mughal empire there was brief period of peace in Afghanistan under Nadir Shah dynasty but then they wasted no time in invading India numerous times.
As world started coming under the spell of western imperialism the Afghanistan gradually lost its prominence as gateway to India. Still for British imperialist the threat of Russians descending down the plains of Indus and Ganges was real. And their would do anything to preserve the jewel of their empire. Afghanistan unsurprisingly again became a playground between British and Russian empire. British Empire wanly tried to subdue the lawless and unforgiving tracts. They quickly learned that it’s easy just to position the tribes against each other and maintain the relative inert state rather than to establish a state. We can say that this strategy was largely successful as the area was in relative peace. Post independence i.e. after Indian independence, Afghanistan came into existence, for the first time in last thousand years or so, as a sovereign nation. Still the tribal region along Durrand line, the line that haphazardly divides Afghanistan and Pakistan, was still autonomous.
It wasn’t meant to last for long. Soviet invasion shattered the peace for good, though this time the prize wasn’t India. Afghanistan was merely another country to be won by two warring super powers. Afghanistan paid dear price. By the time Russians depart the Afghanistan was completely destroyed. Million or so people were killed and again, what’s left was unemployed young and middle aged people with lots of guns and ammunition and nothing to do. More importantly the nation of Afghanistan seized to exist for all practical purpose. It wasn’t a surprise that another disaster was waiting to happen.
It was quite interesting to see how these gun-wielding blood–thirsty terrorist, just like their forefathers, again descended onto India creating havoc in the state of Kashmir. The real perpetrators were Pakistanis but the it was no-brainer that these deranged people will soon spread tentacles through out the globe. What no one thought was that the repercussion would felt violently in New York.
That brings us back to US – another superpower – trying or rather, struggling to make the sense of situation in Afghanistan. And unless they think outside the box, Afghanistan would keep draining resources for decades. We need to realize that the concept of Afghanistan as a Nation just can’t take roots in the rough terrain of Hindu-kush Mountains. The best strategy would simply be to divide the country into the ‘tribe-stan’. Given autonomy to all the tribes and let them leave their life as they please. The only think, and admittedly not easy thing to do, is to keep eye on the ammunition that's going in and out of these tribes. This is all easier said than done.Anyone dares to table this idea even for the sake of discussion will face huge uproar from everyone.
Unfortunately, this won't necessarily solve or stem the problem of terrorism. Because the real cancer lies on the other side of the Durand Line and that will be one heck of a tumor to deal with.
Afghanistan was never a unified entity. Whenever people talk about Afghanistan the timeline usually goes as far back as to Soviet invasion. For current memory that was the first time Afghanistan played its role as a playground for superpowers to fight. All though only because of Saudi money and American ammunition that Afghans could defeat Soviets, the fact that they won’t budge even in the face of insurmountable odds is quite something. And it may sound harsh but that’s what they like. They like to fight. If not foreign invaders then they will fight with each other or they will invade others (historically, they would invade Delhi). All the talk them having rich culture is kind of mystifying because if war and violence can be defined as culture then they do come out on the top of ‘cultured’ nations.
Afghanistan –known as Gandhar in ancient time, was always considered as frontier post for India. You cross Afghanistan’s rugged terrain and you get passage to reach fertile plains of Ganges. Alexander came the same way and he all most succeeded. The Huns did the same thing all though they settled and got assimilated in the local population. Still Afghanistan was known for higher seat of education. Taxila university was one of the biggest university in the world. But it changed completed with advent of Islam.
The first recorded invasion of Muslim Arabs was in 712 A.D. All though the invaders reached Multan, they turned back after looting. Then it became a frontier for Muslim zealots in their quest to expand Dar-Ul-Islam i.e. Muslim dominion. The region bore the bloodiest brunt. The native population was decimated or converted. The entire infrastructure was destroyed and places of learning were burnt down. Gradually all that’s left was warring and blood thirsty people wanting to and waiting for next fight. What was interesting is that once a Sultanate established their grip on Delhi (there were a factory line of them) the goal would be stop invasion of another foreign invader from the gates of Afghanistan or to stop the invasion of Afghans itself. Mughal Empire’s fight to keep that area under control was largely unsuccessful. Except for the brief period of 1650’s and 1660’s, Mughals were draining their treasury as well as soldiers into abyss.
With the fall of Mughal empire there was brief period of peace in Afghanistan under Nadir Shah dynasty but then they wasted no time in invading India numerous times.
As world started coming under the spell of western imperialism the Afghanistan gradually lost its prominence as gateway to India. Still for British imperialist the threat of Russians descending down the plains of Indus and Ganges was real. And their would do anything to preserve the jewel of their empire. Afghanistan unsurprisingly again became a playground between British and Russian empire. British Empire wanly tried to subdue the lawless and unforgiving tracts. They quickly learned that it’s easy just to position the tribes against each other and maintain the relative inert state rather than to establish a state. We can say that this strategy was largely successful as the area was in relative peace. Post independence i.e. after Indian independence, Afghanistan came into existence, for the first time in last thousand years or so, as a sovereign nation. Still the tribal region along Durrand line, the line that haphazardly divides Afghanistan and Pakistan, was still autonomous.
It wasn’t meant to last for long. Soviet invasion shattered the peace for good, though this time the prize wasn’t India. Afghanistan was merely another country to be won by two warring super powers. Afghanistan paid dear price. By the time Russians depart the Afghanistan was completely destroyed. Million or so people were killed and again, what’s left was unemployed young and middle aged people with lots of guns and ammunition and nothing to do. More importantly the nation of Afghanistan seized to exist for all practical purpose. It wasn’t a surprise that another disaster was waiting to happen.
It was quite interesting to see how these gun-wielding blood–thirsty terrorist, just like their forefathers, again descended onto India creating havoc in the state of Kashmir. The real perpetrators were Pakistanis but the it was no-brainer that these deranged people will soon spread tentacles through out the globe. What no one thought was that the repercussion would felt violently in New York.
That brings us back to US – another superpower – trying or rather, struggling to make the sense of situation in Afghanistan. And unless they think outside the box, Afghanistan would keep draining resources for decades. We need to realize that the concept of Afghanistan as a Nation just can’t take roots in the rough terrain of Hindu-kush Mountains. The best strategy would simply be to divide the country into the ‘tribe-stan’. Given autonomy to all the tribes and let them leave their life as they please. The only think, and admittedly not easy thing to do, is to keep eye on the ammunition that's going in and out of these tribes. This is all easier said than done.Anyone dares to table this idea even for the sake of discussion will face huge uproar from everyone.
Unfortunately, this won't necessarily solve or stem the problem of terrorism. Because the real cancer lies on the other side of the Durand Line and that will be one heck of a tumor to deal with.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
la-la world of Rating Agencies
In recent credit crises one of the culprits that escaped scrutiny as well as public wrath was Rating Agency. Rating Agencies like S&P, Moody’s et al played most instrumental role in inflating the balloon and then realizing their mistake played pivotal role in bursting it. And yet no one seems to blame them for anything. In fact technically speaking, they are the sole culprit of the whole problem. We are blaming Wall Street bosses for their financial wizardry that ultimately consumed them, we are blaming investing funds for investing without due diligence. We are blaming mortgage companies for making predatory loans. And then the blame game shifts to which President should be blamed. But one thing’s is true that apart from the mortgage companies like New Century Finance neither investors nor Wall Street bosses did anything with criminal intent. Of course they don’t deserve any sympathy. But when you invest in a bond because it’s AAA and it turns out that the bond is actually less that BBB (i.e. below investing grade)and this discrepancy is because Rating Agency didn’t do their job well then who do you think should be blamed?
Let’s me try to paint little background for readers to see my argument easily.
Rating Agencies like S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch etc. are independent companies that rate anything and everything related to debt market. To rate means the probability of a borrower to return the money with interest and in given time. This way lender know how much risk they are taking and interest is charged based on the risk. Higher the probability of default i.e. borrower not returning money, higher the interest is charged. These agencies base their calculation on the publicly available data as well as by talking to the company bosses for better understanding of the company balance sheet. The calculations involve complex mathematical formulas coupled with equally complex statistics. They take into account years of data across the spectrum and then come up minimum standard that has a letter grades. And the companies satisfying these standards qualify for the grade. Rating Agencies have also increased their gamut by adding everything under the sky. They even rate sovereign nations, unsurprisingly applying different scales for different nations.
In 1970’s government of United States granted a special status NRSRO i.e. Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization- to certain rating agencies. Basically, government said that they trust these rating agencies for rating the debt market. Since then it became a rule for majority of mutual funds – the giants in the investing world – to buy the investment with certain minimum rating from these rating agencies. But the biggest use of Ratings is Risk Management division across the industry. Whether to invest or whether to lend depends on rating grade. With magic wand of ratings, risk management division decides or put restrictions on the business of lending or investing. Even if the rating criteria is internally developed, it still has to match or map it to the external rating grades i.e. NRSRO accredited ratings. And that’s precisely where trouble started. It was simply assumed that rating agencies know what to do and how to do their job. All though these rating agencies weren’t regulated or audited by government.
There is already a substantial argument against basing market behavior on rigid, one dimensional mathematical model. If history is the precursor then the one shouldn’t believe in such models at all. (LTCM, anyone?) As Prof. Taleb notes in his book ‘Black Swan’ in last century only ten days have had more trade than rest combined. And those ten days didn’t usher us into better world! In short humans behave rationally individually and stupidly in herds. But this argument is still raging and in absence of any worthy alternative markets will continue to rely on ratings and risk management models. So, stereotyping inherently irrational human behavior into math numbers wasn’t totally Rating Agencies fault. But giving rosy ratings to Structured debt and loans with shady origins was their fault.
One can discount such a blatant mismatch as a mistake but what’s interesting was the originators of the shady loans (originating, structuring and ultimately sale of debt is a long and complex process and will need a blog in itself to explain) used to pay fees to the rating agencies to find out how to make a low rated debt into high rated debt. In short, students after failing the test would go to t he teachers and pay them to get correct answers and re-submit the test again. The implication of such conflict of interest was felt through out the world as pension funds and mutual funds ended up buying such rigged investment blindly believing in the purity of the rating. And the Risk Management divisions, as mentioned earlier, based their ‘sound’ models on such ratings too. And as it became clear that the debt isn’t exactly of the high quality, the rating agencies decided to pull out the rug all at once. That was a double whammy because suddenly everyone is trying to sale such de-graded investments at once effectively accelerating credit crises. It’s rather banal to compare this scenario with pack of cards. Not that there weren’t fire alarms but they were conveniently forgotten. For example, the rating for WorldCom was BBB all most to the end when WorldCom filed for Bankruptcy then the biggest bankruptcy in US economic history. Same thing was repeated for Enron. Yet nothing happened and show went on.
And show will continue without even a blip this time too. The corrective measure is to actually challenge the existing notion of risk-management and free it from the clutches of morbid mathematical calculations. But that would be a long haul. In the mean time the sensible thing is to regulate the rating industry. Unfortunately, there aren’t any calls for that. They continue to remain de-facto kings in the investment world. With our money at their disposal they surely aren’t complaining!
Let’s me try to paint little background for readers to see my argument easily.
Rating Agencies like S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch etc. are independent companies that rate anything and everything related to debt market. To rate means the probability of a borrower to return the money with interest and in given time. This way lender know how much risk they are taking and interest is charged based on the risk. Higher the probability of default i.e. borrower not returning money, higher the interest is charged. These agencies base their calculation on the publicly available data as well as by talking to the company bosses for better understanding of the company balance sheet. The calculations involve complex mathematical formulas coupled with equally complex statistics. They take into account years of data across the spectrum and then come up minimum standard that has a letter grades. And the companies satisfying these standards qualify for the grade. Rating Agencies have also increased their gamut by adding everything under the sky. They even rate sovereign nations, unsurprisingly applying different scales for different nations.
In 1970’s government of United States granted a special status NRSRO i.e. Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization- to certain rating agencies. Basically, government said that they trust these rating agencies for rating the debt market. Since then it became a rule for majority of mutual funds – the giants in the investing world – to buy the investment with certain minimum rating from these rating agencies. But the biggest use of Ratings is Risk Management division across the industry. Whether to invest or whether to lend depends on rating grade. With magic wand of ratings, risk management division decides or put restrictions on the business of lending or investing. Even if the rating criteria is internally developed, it still has to match or map it to the external rating grades i.e. NRSRO accredited ratings. And that’s precisely where trouble started. It was simply assumed that rating agencies know what to do and how to do their job. All though these rating agencies weren’t regulated or audited by government.
There is already a substantial argument against basing market behavior on rigid, one dimensional mathematical model. If history is the precursor then the one shouldn’t believe in such models at all. (LTCM, anyone?) As Prof. Taleb notes in his book ‘Black Swan’ in last century only ten days have had more trade than rest combined. And those ten days didn’t usher us into better world! In short humans behave rationally individually and stupidly in herds. But this argument is still raging and in absence of any worthy alternative markets will continue to rely on ratings and risk management models. So, stereotyping inherently irrational human behavior into math numbers wasn’t totally Rating Agencies fault. But giving rosy ratings to Structured debt and loans with shady origins was their fault.
One can discount such a blatant mismatch as a mistake but what’s interesting was the originators of the shady loans (originating, structuring and ultimately sale of debt is a long and complex process and will need a blog in itself to explain) used to pay fees to the rating agencies to find out how to make a low rated debt into high rated debt. In short, students after failing the test would go to t he teachers and pay them to get correct answers and re-submit the test again. The implication of such conflict of interest was felt through out the world as pension funds and mutual funds ended up buying such rigged investment blindly believing in the purity of the rating. And the Risk Management divisions, as mentioned earlier, based their ‘sound’ models on such ratings too. And as it became clear that the debt isn’t exactly of the high quality, the rating agencies decided to pull out the rug all at once. That was a double whammy because suddenly everyone is trying to sale such de-graded investments at once effectively accelerating credit crises. It’s rather banal to compare this scenario with pack of cards. Not that there weren’t fire alarms but they were conveniently forgotten. For example, the rating for WorldCom was BBB all most to the end when WorldCom filed for Bankruptcy then the biggest bankruptcy in US economic history. Same thing was repeated for Enron. Yet nothing happened and show went on.
And show will continue without even a blip this time too. The corrective measure is to actually challenge the existing notion of risk-management and free it from the clutches of morbid mathematical calculations. But that would be a long haul. In the mean time the sensible thing is to regulate the rating industry. Unfortunately, there aren’t any calls for that. They continue to remain de-facto kings in the investment world. With our money at their disposal they surely aren’t complaining!
Friday, August 28, 2009
Shut the .....up!
Success has many fathers and failure has none. But in a very perverse manner a contradictory scene is developing on Indian political scene. BJP which lost the election seems to be taking new rabbits out of hat every other week, while Congress, which won the election, seems to be calm. Without usual drama they selected their cabinet ministry and started working as if there was never any election or as if it’s their right to be in the government. On the other hand the leadership in the BJP is crumbling under the pressure of defeat and its cadres are left without any sense of direction and purpose. Moreover, it is embarrassing to see way these ‘senior’ leaders are washing their dirty laundry in pubic. I am not saying there shouldn’t be disagreements but for the love of all that’s sweet on mother earth just shut the fuck up. First you got Uma Bharati then Yashwant Sinha, Murali Manohar Joshi and now Jaswant Singh and of all people, Arun Shourie! What the heck? What bit these intelligent people to run naked in public? I mean really, it’s just really uncool!
I always use to brag that BJP has deep leadership qualities amongst her ranks and file. And most of them are not corrupt and dedicated towards the goal. We had Mr. Vajapayee and Mr. Advani at the helm - two sages of Indian political scene. There is never any question about their integrity, honesty and devotion towards India. And since they have seen every possible up and down in India since independence, it’s just natural that they will usher India into new age of plural democracy and secular development. Then they had second defensive line of Jaswant Singh, Yashwant Sinha, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, Sikandar Bakhta et all. These folks were not exactly young but experienced, dedicated and for most purposes clean. And as if this was not enough they had third generation leadership emerging in Narendra Modi, Uma Bharati, Arun Jaitley, Sushama Swaraj and Pramod Mahajan. These folks not only had strong popular base (except for Arun Jaitley) but they were astute politicians who are also keenly aware of mood of emerging India. And then of course you have legendry foot soldiers of BJP who for most purposes graduated from RSS. These people were selfless, dedicated and motivated by higher cause.
Was this picture figment of (my) imagination or a mirage that BJP managed to create? Neither is true I guess because looking at BJP’s performance in last 20 years it is hard to believe that they would achieve all this without committed cadre base, sensible and intelligent mid-to-senior level and charismatic top rung. And BJP can’t create mirage of anything. That’s for sure. If they can then this is the best time to do that! So what happened? Where did they loose their common sense? What happened to all the discipline that RSS imparted? The fall has been so swift and so quick that it’s hard to fathom exactly when and where they lost all grey material?
The electoral defeat in 2004 general election was surely a shocker but the party did regroup and string of victories in state electoral (including establishing first government in South India) gave every indication that they are up for power in next general election. But it was not meant to be so. They did cling to their seats but the defeat was fatal. Congress swept through the polls and established themselves for another five years. Instead of introspecting senior members of the party started going berserk. Unless the party changes rank and file drastically, they are going down the drain pretty soon.
First of all, and it may seem extremely harsh, Mr. Advani needs to make a way. He is one of the greatest leaders and statesman that India has produced and surely one of the rarest breed who has capability to galvanize huge mass movements. Unfortunately though He is on wrong side of 80 and even if BJP wins the next general election, there is no way he could lead the nation. He not only loosing the control but it seems that he is completely dumbfounded to see his trusted lieutenants behaving in this manner. It will be sad to see him going in such circumstances. He certainly deserves a lot better. But fresh blood is extremely necessary at this juncture. If new leadership fails then at least they will fail after giving a fair shot. And no, Rajnath Singh can’t be his replacement! There are few choices apart from Narendra Modi. I think Sushama Swaraj fits the bill right now. She is intelligent and most importantly she has mass base.
Second, it is absolutely necessary for them to embrace Hindutva completely. It is the single factor that bought them to power. It was the reason they attracted educated middle class and it is the only viable ideology to attract poor to its fold. BJP, when ruling, showed how Hindutva seamlessly meshes up with development. So the Market and industries shouldn’t have any problems with Hindutva. On the social front though dilly-dallying with Hindutva has caused insurmountable damage. Glaring example is the sorry state of the party in Uttar Pradesh. They pretty much lost Delhi because of it. Uttar Pradesh is the most populace (I am including break-away states for this argument) state in India and has highest number of electorate votes. At one point BJP was winning more than 60 seats out of 89 and now they barely cross 10’s. It’s just pathetic.
Third, as mentioned earlier, they need to shut their mouth-holes. There is really no need to yap. They need to put their heads down and start working again. They have enough strength to win next general election. It’s just they need to stay as a united. If only they keep quite then they will hear the footsteps of inevitable doom. They need to be aware of this and should be scared.
And finally, I sincerely hope their next Prime Ministerial candidate is Narendra Modi. There is no alternative to him. They need to rally around him and he is the best hope at this point.
I always use to brag that BJP has deep leadership qualities amongst her ranks and file. And most of them are not corrupt and dedicated towards the goal. We had Mr. Vajapayee and Mr. Advani at the helm - two sages of Indian political scene. There is never any question about their integrity, honesty and devotion towards India. And since they have seen every possible up and down in India since independence, it’s just natural that they will usher India into new age of plural democracy and secular development. Then they had second defensive line of Jaswant Singh, Yashwant Sinha, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, Sikandar Bakhta et all. These folks were not exactly young but experienced, dedicated and for most purposes clean. And as if this was not enough they had third generation leadership emerging in Narendra Modi, Uma Bharati, Arun Jaitley, Sushama Swaraj and Pramod Mahajan. These folks not only had strong popular base (except for Arun Jaitley) but they were astute politicians who are also keenly aware of mood of emerging India. And then of course you have legendry foot soldiers of BJP who for most purposes graduated from RSS. These people were selfless, dedicated and motivated by higher cause.
Was this picture figment of (my) imagination or a mirage that BJP managed to create? Neither is true I guess because looking at BJP’s performance in last 20 years it is hard to believe that they would achieve all this without committed cadre base, sensible and intelligent mid-to-senior level and charismatic top rung. And BJP can’t create mirage of anything. That’s for sure. If they can then this is the best time to do that! So what happened? Where did they loose their common sense? What happened to all the discipline that RSS imparted? The fall has been so swift and so quick that it’s hard to fathom exactly when and where they lost all grey material?
The electoral defeat in 2004 general election was surely a shocker but the party did regroup and string of victories in state electoral (including establishing first government in South India) gave every indication that they are up for power in next general election. But it was not meant to be so. They did cling to their seats but the defeat was fatal. Congress swept through the polls and established themselves for another five years. Instead of introspecting senior members of the party started going berserk. Unless the party changes rank and file drastically, they are going down the drain pretty soon.
First of all, and it may seem extremely harsh, Mr. Advani needs to make a way. He is one of the greatest leaders and statesman that India has produced and surely one of the rarest breed who has capability to galvanize huge mass movements. Unfortunately though He is on wrong side of 80 and even if BJP wins the next general election, there is no way he could lead the nation. He not only loosing the control but it seems that he is completely dumbfounded to see his trusted lieutenants behaving in this manner. It will be sad to see him going in such circumstances. He certainly deserves a lot better. But fresh blood is extremely necessary at this juncture. If new leadership fails then at least they will fail after giving a fair shot. And no, Rajnath Singh can’t be his replacement! There are few choices apart from Narendra Modi. I think Sushama Swaraj fits the bill right now. She is intelligent and most importantly she has mass base.
Second, it is absolutely necessary for them to embrace Hindutva completely. It is the single factor that bought them to power. It was the reason they attracted educated middle class and it is the only viable ideology to attract poor to its fold. BJP, when ruling, showed how Hindutva seamlessly meshes up with development. So the Market and industries shouldn’t have any problems with Hindutva. On the social front though dilly-dallying with Hindutva has caused insurmountable damage. Glaring example is the sorry state of the party in Uttar Pradesh. They pretty much lost Delhi because of it. Uttar Pradesh is the most populace (I am including break-away states for this argument) state in India and has highest number of electorate votes. At one point BJP was winning more than 60 seats out of 89 and now they barely cross 10’s. It’s just pathetic.
Third, as mentioned earlier, they need to shut their mouth-holes. There is really no need to yap. They need to put their heads down and start working again. They have enough strength to win next general election. It’s just they need to stay as a united. If only they keep quite then they will hear the footsteps of inevitable doom. They need to be aware of this and should be scared.
And finally, I sincerely hope their next Prime Ministerial candidate is Narendra Modi. There is no alternative to him. They need to rally around him and he is the best hope at this point.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Hindutva and Youth
India has the fastest growing population of youth under 25. According to recent estimate more than 40% of Indian population falls in this bracket. So it’s just natural that they will be the one driving India’s future. As India increasingly embraces capitalistic ethos the consumption based culture will take deeper roots. I think this phenomenon, in particular, will provide biggest resistance to the spreading of Hindutva ideology. Forget about anti-Hindu media and Christian missionary supported national parties, the youth with insatiable thirst to buy newer cell phones, bikes and clothes may prove hardest to sell to the nationalistic concepts based on Hindutva.
At the same time the understanding about Hindutva philosophy is increasingly getting muddled because of activities that, in reality, has nothing to do with Hindutva. I think if we try to be true to the comment made by Supreme Court of India “The court came to the conclusion that the words "Hinduism" or "Hindutva" are not necessarily to be understood and construed narrowly, confined only to the strict Hindu religious practices unrelated to the culture and ethos of the People of India depicting the way of life of the Indian people” then we can attract more followers. The current youth population is nationalistic in every sense but their priorities have shifted drastically and we need to explain them the Hindutva in a language that they understand.
Sadly, the word Hindutva is usually associated with hooliganism. Shiv-Sena for example is known more about bashing parties and beating people on Valentine’s Day. The recent incident in Mangalore presents the whole concept in very poor light. I don’t think Hindutva is about not celebrating Valentine’s day or not going to pubs. I myself find Valentine’s Day etc. incredibly stupid but that doesn’t mean I have any right to resort to violent acts. Freedom of expression is paramount and should be protected at any cost.
Attacking MF Hussein’s paintings is a different scenario though. Because he offends the sentiments on purpose and law agencies or government doesn't take any action against him on purpose. If he paints paintings of Jesus Christ and Mother Mary in compromising positions or if he paints any picture of Allah then that's fine. His freedom to express his art should work both ways!
But such mundane stuff doesn't necessarily has anything to do with Hindutva either. Hindutva is a philosophy with wider spectrum. So, first, we need to distinguish between this kind of macho-Hindutva from real Hindutva.
The rise of capitalism, as mentioned in the beginning, is impossible to stop. . For the first in last couple of centuries Indians are finding opportunities to lift themselves out of poverty. And they are not going to stop for any ideological principal. Is Hindutva against Capitalism? I am not sure if it is related to any certain economic models. Any economic model as long as it benefits India and Indians is welcome. In current scenario, capitalistic economic model is proving boon to India (The situation may change in future but we should deal with it in future only)
I f, under the guise of Hindutva, organizations like Swadeshi moments attacks this model of economy then we are surely going to loose more base. Such ideology all though may sound legitimate to certain sections of the society should be dissociated from Hindutva.
Once we take out real Hindutva out of these incoherent and confusing acts done by organization related to Hindu politic then it will take spread for sure. Of course, that won't be it. But then we will be in a position to fight the real battle with staunchly anti-Hindu media and leftist academia.
At the same time the understanding about Hindutva philosophy is increasingly getting muddled because of activities that, in reality, has nothing to do with Hindutva. I think if we try to be true to the comment made by Supreme Court of India “The court came to the conclusion that the words "Hinduism" or "Hindutva" are not necessarily to be understood and construed narrowly, confined only to the strict Hindu religious practices unrelated to the culture and ethos of the People of India depicting the way of life of the Indian people” then we can attract more followers. The current youth population is nationalistic in every sense but their priorities have shifted drastically and we need to explain them the Hindutva in a language that they understand.
Sadly, the word Hindutva is usually associated with hooliganism. Shiv-Sena for example is known more about bashing parties and beating people on Valentine’s Day. The recent incident in Mangalore presents the whole concept in very poor light. I don’t think Hindutva is about not celebrating Valentine’s day or not going to pubs. I myself find Valentine’s Day etc. incredibly stupid but that doesn’t mean I have any right to resort to violent acts. Freedom of expression is paramount and should be protected at any cost.
Attacking MF Hussein’s paintings is a different scenario though. Because he offends the sentiments on purpose and law agencies or government doesn't take any action against him on purpose. If he paints paintings of Jesus Christ and Mother Mary in compromising positions or if he paints any picture of Allah then that's fine. His freedom to express his art should work both ways!
But such mundane stuff doesn't necessarily has anything to do with Hindutva either. Hindutva is a philosophy with wider spectrum. So, first, we need to distinguish between this kind of macho-Hindutva from real Hindutva.
The rise of capitalism, as mentioned in the beginning, is impossible to stop. . For the first in last couple of centuries Indians are finding opportunities to lift themselves out of poverty. And they are not going to stop for any ideological principal. Is Hindutva against Capitalism? I am not sure if it is related to any certain economic models. Any economic model as long as it benefits India and Indians is welcome. In current scenario, capitalistic economic model is proving boon to India (The situation may change in future but we should deal with it in future only)
I f, under the guise of Hindutva, organizations like Swadeshi moments attacks this model of economy then we are surely going to loose more base. Such ideology all though may sound legitimate to certain sections of the society should be dissociated from Hindutva.
Once we take out real Hindutva out of these incoherent and confusing acts done by organization related to Hindu politic then it will take spread for sure. Of course, that won't be it. But then we will be in a position to fight the real battle with staunchly anti-Hindu media and leftist academia.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Aftermath of Persian Elections
The fiasco in Iran seems to be finally over. I am not sure what and if it changed anything. We have an Islamic regime that barks at pretty much everyone. I must say that the regime probably does not reflect the general consensus in the country and that majority of the Persians do have sane mind. But anyone who denies existence of Holocaust must immediately be admitted to the mental asylum and arrested if that person is a head of the state. I can understand he wants to cater certain audience and he sincerely believes that his rants gives him certain aura but what he doesn’t realize is that his aura is aura of foolishness. But enough has been written about this madman.
The elections in Iran are different that how democratic elections that take place around the world. Persians do have right to vote and they do have candidates to choose from but the mandate can’t be used for quite a few matters related to the state and governance. For example, whether Persians believe that Israel should be wiped off the earth is irrelevant because the Revolutionary Guard - the powerful quasi-military institution in Iran, truly believes in ‘Zionist’ theory and that’s all it matters. The mandate of the people can be used only for intra-state governance. And even then the policies can’t step outside the gamut of Islamic principals.
The elected President then appoints whole bunch of officers through out the country increasing his strong hold over the bureaucracy. He is counseled by Revolutionary Guards as well as another of the religious council that sits between President’s arm of government and Revolutionary guard. And top of all this sits the Grand Ayatollah –the supreme leader, the ultimate arbitrary of all matters related to state. His words can not be doubted or his decisions can not be questioned. He sits above politics and yet he is heavily involved in all sorts of politics. He can dismiss anyone including the President. Like a King, he is not accountable to anything and to anyone. Though, the grand Ayatollah has not exercised his power frequently. At least, not visibly!
Whether Iran wants to hate US and UK is their choice. They don’t have to love western civilization nor do they need to embrace the western culture. If they want to be an Islamic republic and they should be an Islamic republic. Their grievances against UK and US are quite legitimate. Earlier in the days of Colonism and later under the guise of anti-Soviet build-up, these two western nations have messed up Persia quite unnecessarily. They were pawn for British Empire against Russian powerhouse and with the help of CIA, they overthrew democratically elected President in 1950’s. Later on they supported highly unpopular Shah Dynasty till 1979. But then whole of bunch of countries in the world were used and worse persecuted by British and American empires. Because that’s what Empires do. Similar case can be build against Turkish Empire or French colonial policies in Africa. Spanish empire! Anyone? The list is endless. But very few countries actually keep grieving. They rant, yes, but then they move on. They embrace capitalism whatever way is suitable and they try to attain progress. I think that’s where this proud civilization is slipping. And it is quite feasible that this frustration bubbled up through widespread protests.
At the same time we need to be little skeptical about the coverage in western media as well as relying on Facebook or Twitter. The protest seems to be or at least, recorded only in Tehran. The city’s the capital and metropolitan in every sense. And as is the case most of the world, the populace of big metros is usually more liberal. So, eruption of discontent in Tehran doesn’t mean folks in the other cities or in the countryside are sharing the same concern. But then, just to augment the contradiction further, protests in Tehran has been disruptive in the past. So, does recent protest has potential to herald Iran into another era of confusion and chaos? No one, including Persians themselves, knows the answer.
The protest was handled quite humanly if compared with such instances from the past. And in the face of strong warning, the protest fizzled out quietly. There seems to all most negligible use of force and very few people loosing lives. Of course, any loss of life is deplorable. But that’s how protest stuff works. The point is that Iranian rulers need to realize that they can enhance their own status and elevate their own country if they take this protest seriously. It’s absolutely retarded to keep blaming on western nations because even after the way this country is governed, if UK is still in the position to create mischief then all the Ayatollahs & Co. should resign in shame. The protest was genuine and they were peaceful. They simply wanted a recount, a legitimate request in any democratic institution. By calling them "dust" (who writes speeches for Ahmadinejad's?) or worse traitors is nothing but silly. Again they should not worry about what international media has to say. But to dismiss the huge protests on Tehran streets is showing cracks in the authoritative rule. The economy is still heavily based on Oil revenues and as oil prices has dropped like stone in the water in last couple of years, the macho attitude of the administration is not achieving anything. And when you are a supreme leader, you are not supposed to side with someone. And that's exactly Khamenie did. I think the protesters will be back in few years and that time it will be nastier than ever.
At the end of the day Persians are responsible of their own destiny. War-mongering, stupid brow-beating and constantly taking some ridiculous stand based on some ludicrous ideology is going to haunt the future of Iran for sure. World is moving on very rapidly and it's up to the folks in Iran to decide whether they want to part of the drama or just some loud bystanders.
The elections in Iran are different that how democratic elections that take place around the world. Persians do have right to vote and they do have candidates to choose from but the mandate can’t be used for quite a few matters related to the state and governance. For example, whether Persians believe that Israel should be wiped off the earth is irrelevant because the Revolutionary Guard - the powerful quasi-military institution in Iran, truly believes in ‘Zionist’ theory and that’s all it matters. The mandate of the people can be used only for intra-state governance. And even then the policies can’t step outside the gamut of Islamic principals.
The elected President then appoints whole bunch of officers through out the country increasing his strong hold over the bureaucracy. He is counseled by Revolutionary Guards as well as another of the religious council that sits between President’s arm of government and Revolutionary guard. And top of all this sits the Grand Ayatollah –the supreme leader, the ultimate arbitrary of all matters related to state. His words can not be doubted or his decisions can not be questioned. He sits above politics and yet he is heavily involved in all sorts of politics. He can dismiss anyone including the President. Like a King, he is not accountable to anything and to anyone. Though, the grand Ayatollah has not exercised his power frequently. At least, not visibly!
Whether Iran wants to hate US and UK is their choice. They don’t have to love western civilization nor do they need to embrace the western culture. If they want to be an Islamic republic and they should be an Islamic republic. Their grievances against UK and US are quite legitimate. Earlier in the days of Colonism and later under the guise of anti-Soviet build-up, these two western nations have messed up Persia quite unnecessarily. They were pawn for British Empire against Russian powerhouse and with the help of CIA, they overthrew democratically elected President in 1950’s. Later on they supported highly unpopular Shah Dynasty till 1979. But then whole of bunch of countries in the world were used and worse persecuted by British and American empires. Because that’s what Empires do. Similar case can be build against Turkish Empire or French colonial policies in Africa. Spanish empire! Anyone? The list is endless. But very few countries actually keep grieving. They rant, yes, but then they move on. They embrace capitalism whatever way is suitable and they try to attain progress. I think that’s where this proud civilization is slipping. And it is quite feasible that this frustration bubbled up through widespread protests.
At the same time we need to be little skeptical about the coverage in western media as well as relying on Facebook or Twitter. The protest seems to be or at least, recorded only in Tehran. The city’s the capital and metropolitan in every sense. And as is the case most of the world, the populace of big metros is usually more liberal. So, eruption of discontent in Tehran doesn’t mean folks in the other cities or in the countryside are sharing the same concern. But then, just to augment the contradiction further, protests in Tehran has been disruptive in the past. So, does recent protest has potential to herald Iran into another era of confusion and chaos? No one, including Persians themselves, knows the answer.
The protest was handled quite humanly if compared with such instances from the past. And in the face of strong warning, the protest fizzled out quietly. There seems to all most negligible use of force and very few people loosing lives. Of course, any loss of life is deplorable. But that’s how protest stuff works. The point is that Iranian rulers need to realize that they can enhance their own status and elevate their own country if they take this protest seriously. It’s absolutely retarded to keep blaming on western nations because even after the way this country is governed, if UK is still in the position to create mischief then all the Ayatollahs & Co. should resign in shame. The protest was genuine and they were peaceful. They simply wanted a recount, a legitimate request in any democratic institution. By calling them "dust" (who writes speeches for Ahmadinejad's?) or worse traitors is nothing but silly. Again they should not worry about what international media has to say. But to dismiss the huge protests on Tehran streets is showing cracks in the authoritative rule. The economy is still heavily based on Oil revenues and as oil prices has dropped like stone in the water in last couple of years, the macho attitude of the administration is not achieving anything. And when you are a supreme leader, you are not supposed to side with someone. And that's exactly Khamenie did. I think the protesters will be back in few years and that time it will be nastier than ever.
At the end of the day Persians are responsible of their own destiny. War-mongering, stupid brow-beating and constantly taking some ridiculous stand based on some ludicrous ideology is going to haunt the future of Iran for sure. World is moving on very rapidly and it's up to the folks in Iran to decide whether they want to part of the drama or just some loud bystanders.
Friday, June 05, 2009
The Tank Man
Since last week New York Times is buzzing 20th anniversary of Tienanmen Square massacre. Various articles, photographs and old reports were getting published trying to shed more light on that tragic event. But any new material is so scarce thanks to absolutely tight control over this incidence by Chinese government that basic questions like how many people were killed and what happened to the ones who were caught are still largely unanswered. If it were the western world, scores of books would have been published by now along with handful of movies. Few universities would have tried to set-up a Chair on this incidence too. It’s a different matter that excessive attention paid in western world even on minute incidence usually ends up muddling the water same as excessive crackdown on any dissent that Chinese government enforces.
Coming back to the topic, I was thinking about the photo that encapsulated the whole event. A lone guy in white shirt with some sort of shopping bag in his hand standing firmly and calmly in front of fleet of tanks. The road, bereft of any life, looks ominous with only tanks moving certain direction, most probably towards the protesters. In one of the recent reports it is mentioned that soldiers were firing indiscriminately from the tanks but it is hard to see any soldiers on the tanks. Amidst this firing and people scurrying around for cover, our hero, the “Tank Man” as popularly known now, is standing serenely ready to welcome the fleet of tanks. It makes me wonder, philosophies, what must be going through his mind at that time. His action doesn’t seem like taken in haste. In one of most recent photograph taken from another angle, published in New York Times, there is a considerable distance between where he took his last stand and the approaching tanks. Basically, he had time to run away. He had time to think to about his future, which obviously was quite bleak at that point. He had time convince himself to run. But he didn’t! What prompted him to be so valiant? Did he believe his act would spare lives of innocents by stopping the menacing march of tanks towards the protesters?
We would probably never know.
The fact that Chinese decided to turn on military grade tanks on their own citizens confirms the magnitude of the protest and uneasiness of the government. Would they really stop for a lone guy with shopping bags in his hands? Or rather, stopped by a lone guy with shopping bags in his hands? They didn’t and rest is history. No one knows the fate of ‘tank man’. Some think he survived and still living in China. I highly doubt that. I mean we have an authoritarian government that hangs even juvenile convicts and it would be totally out of character for them to spare his life, specially, after killing thousands of his protesters comrades with ease. After such a gruesome slaughter killing the tank man would be merely adding to statistics.
The unfathomable courage he showed is so exceptional and surprising that majority would call him a mad-man. These cynics will further point out that his protest didn’t stop the carnage. True, but he showed us the power to take a stand. Whether it changes the reality is for later part. The most important thing is to act. He didn’t care if anyone was following him or not. He didn’t care about the consequences. He didn’t make any speeches or grandiose statements nor did he write any books. There is no way that anyone could stand up against military tanks and bullets. And yet he decided to show his strength by standing in front of them. He didn’t attack those tanks with grenades. He didn’t attack them at all. He just wanted to stop them. Perhaps, he thought that he can reason with the military personnel in the tanks because he did climb on the tank looking for someone to talk to and you can all most feel that he wanted them the tank operator to think about consequence of their act. What ever may be the reason; his act was in sheer desperation he showcased the enduring spirit of humans to fight for others; to look beyond individual interest and stand up for greater cause.
Somehow I believe he didn’t think this profoundly at all. Because one, there was probably no time to do so. But moreover, thinking so much can diminish the resolve. His act was instinctive but resolute. In any case when you are facing your death through barrel of the tank or in the bed, the only thing that remains is the debate with your soul.. You are answerable to your own self. Did you do what you were supposed to do? Are you satisfied with your actions? Were you true to your conscious? He had satisfactory answers for himself and with tank gun pointed at him, he set himself free.
Coming back to the topic, I was thinking about the photo that encapsulated the whole event. A lone guy in white shirt with some sort of shopping bag in his hand standing firmly and calmly in front of fleet of tanks. The road, bereft of any life, looks ominous with only tanks moving certain direction, most probably towards the protesters. In one of the recent reports it is mentioned that soldiers were firing indiscriminately from the tanks but it is hard to see any soldiers on the tanks. Amidst this firing and people scurrying around for cover, our hero, the “Tank Man” as popularly known now, is standing serenely ready to welcome the fleet of tanks. It makes me wonder, philosophies, what must be going through his mind at that time. His action doesn’t seem like taken in haste. In one of most recent photograph taken from another angle, published in New York Times, there is a considerable distance between where he took his last stand and the approaching tanks. Basically, he had time to run away. He had time to think to about his future, which obviously was quite bleak at that point. He had time convince himself to run. But he didn’t! What prompted him to be so valiant? Did he believe his act would spare lives of innocents by stopping the menacing march of tanks towards the protesters?
We would probably never know.
The fact that Chinese decided to turn on military grade tanks on their own citizens confirms the magnitude of the protest and uneasiness of the government. Would they really stop for a lone guy with shopping bags in his hands? Or rather, stopped by a lone guy with shopping bags in his hands? They didn’t and rest is history. No one knows the fate of ‘tank man’. Some think he survived and still living in China. I highly doubt that. I mean we have an authoritarian government that hangs even juvenile convicts and it would be totally out of character for them to spare his life, specially, after killing thousands of his protesters comrades with ease. After such a gruesome slaughter killing the tank man would be merely adding to statistics.
The unfathomable courage he showed is so exceptional and surprising that majority would call him a mad-man. These cynics will further point out that his protest didn’t stop the carnage. True, but he showed us the power to take a stand. Whether it changes the reality is for later part. The most important thing is to act. He didn’t care if anyone was following him or not. He didn’t care about the consequences. He didn’t make any speeches or grandiose statements nor did he write any books. There is no way that anyone could stand up against military tanks and bullets. And yet he decided to show his strength by standing in front of them. He didn’t attack those tanks with grenades. He didn’t attack them at all. He just wanted to stop them. Perhaps, he thought that he can reason with the military personnel in the tanks because he did climb on the tank looking for someone to talk to and you can all most feel that he wanted them the tank operator to think about consequence of their act. What ever may be the reason; his act was in sheer desperation he showcased the enduring spirit of humans to fight for others; to look beyond individual interest and stand up for greater cause.
Somehow I believe he didn’t think this profoundly at all. Because one, there was probably no time to do so. But moreover, thinking so much can diminish the resolve. His act was instinctive but resolute. In any case when you are facing your death through barrel of the tank or in the bed, the only thing that remains is the debate with your soul.. You are answerable to your own self. Did you do what you were supposed to do? Are you satisfied with your actions? Were you true to your conscious? He had satisfactory answers for himself and with tank gun pointed at him, he set himself free.
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