To say no one saw it coming would be an exaggeration. The timing was a surprise but all dynastic or family-centered political parties are bound to go through the phase of rebellion. It is just natural. A family member is given precedence over another and the other decides to split. Sometimes the split is successful while for most purposes, the usurper is defeated soundly. The two Laloo brothers fought but Tejaswi, the first choice of Laloo, emerged a winner. Bal Thackeray chose his son over a potentially more deserving candidate - his nephew. The nephew has been in the wilderness since then. Similarly, Stalin soundly defeated his elder brother and has been running DMK since then. In short, it was a matter of time before NCP also goes through the split. The nephew here is much stronger when it comes to public support and he is a strongman as well. While the daughter has been getting elected as a Member of Parliament for decades now, her sway over the Maharashtra electorate has been mediocre at best. Sharad Pawar seems to have decided to throw his weight behind his daughter instead of his nephew. There is a bit more nuance here that is critical. The senior Pawar has not relinquished his power yet. He has not given reigns to his daughter. He is desperately holding on to the power as if his life depends on it. Even at this advanced age, senior Pawar wants to be the kingmaker. Perhaps, he took that moniker given to him a bit more seriously.
Or Ajit Pawar saw the writing on the wall and decided to chart his path. The party has barely grown in the last two decades. Their vote share in MH has consistently come down since 1999. Their maximum seat winning was 71 seats out of 288 legislative seats. Unsurprisingly, the party recently got delisted as a National Party. With the rampaging BJP rushing ahead of everyone and the emergence of Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, now was the time for Ajit Pawar to branch out. Otherwise, there was a healthy chance of Ajit Pawar going down like Uddhav Thackeray. All these political equations make sense for Ajit Pawar and a good number of NCP leaders and MLAs. But does that mean BJP should take him under their wing? Politics is all about benefits and somehow, I do not see Ajit Pawar's defection helping BJP in any way. I foresee considerable headaches and concerns from within the party and most importantly, from the loyal vote base of BJP.
Sharad Pawar has been playing games from the shadows for far too long. He hoodwinked BJP and Devendra Fadnavis in 2019. The move he made not only ensured Uddhav Thackeray and Congress joined hands with NCP in forming the state government but I am sure senior Pawar got a kick out of him landing a knockout punch squarely on BJP's chin. The party known for a multitude of leaders, think tanks, cadre based organizations was so summarily defeated in the game of politics that it won't be surprising if the party and especially, Devendra Fadnavis decided to make this personal. With retribution in mind, they helped destroy Pawar Senior's party from the inside out. Perhaps, the vote share will split further favoring BJP in the 2023 Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. Perhaps, the confusion may lead to further infighting in Congress, in Uddhav's Shiv Sena, and NCP leading to more seats for BJP. All that is possible but what if BJPs vote share comes down? Can that happen? Perhaps.
This is simply because BJP has been projecting itself as the most non-corrupt party. There is an element of truth to that. Then BJP has been projecting itself as a political party that puts governance, development, and people's mandate above political slug-fest. They are the party that would not compromise on its principles and would even let go of power if needed. They have done that in the past. Those moves did not immediately bring them electoral benefits but that type of politics has gained them an extremely loyal voter base. Just look at the recent Karnataka Vidhan Sabha elections - the party's seat tally came down drastically but their vote share has not budged much. People who voted for them continued to vote for them. Another example is the Delhi Vidhan Sabha elections where BJP has barely any presence in the seat tally but their vote share has gone up in the last decade. All this is because of their fastidiousness with principles, ideology, and their capability to even let go of power for principles and ideology. And all this is no longer visible in the current scenario.
NCP and associated leaders have been accused of massive corruption. I will provide only one example, Ajit Pawar, irrigation minister for over a decade, is infamous for irrigation project scams worth billions of dollars. The cases have been long pending with no end in sight. Similarly, in the social engineering space, NCP has amped up caste-based, anti-Brahmin tirade that has led to multiple cases of violence and in creating disharmony in the society. The party is known as a party of only one caste while not serving even that caste appropriately. The last home minister of the state, a leading figure of NCP, has been embroiled in an extortion scandal and was in jail for months. Another home minister from this same party was helming when the 26/11 attacks happened. The list of corruption scandals, insidious political games, and complete failure when in administration for NCP is too long. Yet, BJP believes that combining forces with NCP and with Ajit Pawar is a good idea. Have they lost touch with their ideals, with their voters, and with their beliefs? Please don't tell me that there are no enemies in politics. You don't have to be enemies but you don't have to be friends as well. Remember, birds of the same feather flock together. Is BJP changing its feathers? Because NCP or Ajit Pawar surely are not going to change theirs!
As mentioned earlier, NCP has been fading for a long time in MH now. They would have ceased to be a political power very shortly. With a strong part of Shiv Sena already with them, the likelihood of the BJP winning a massive mandate in next year's Vidhan Sabha elections was very high. They may very well win the next election or even the next one after that. But in the long term this strategy will severely impact BJP.
