The recent Pahalgam attack was a shock to the system. The barbaric nature of it is not new to Kashmir since the Kashmiri Islamists have done a lot worse during the ethnic cleansing of Kashmiri Hindus in 1989. There have been attacks on Hindu pilgrims in the early 2000s, where scores were gunned down. All those attacks perpetrated by Islamic terrorists are only towards Hindus and for them being Hindus. All the stories from Kashmir of the local population being very helpful towards the tourists during this time confuse me. The "Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde" nature of local Kashmiri is hard to fathom. The local Kashmiri will be the first one to pay a hefty price for this dastardly act. Most have nothing to do with the attack, yet tourism will take a massive hit. All the 'shikaras,' restaurants, and hotels will be empty for some time. I hope the economic catastrophe will be short-term.
The second party to face the music, and rightfully so, will be Pakistan. The country is virtually broke. Hence, they continue to trudge along after throwing themselves in the bed of whoever loans them money. First, it was the US, a combination of Saudis and UAE. However, the US has pulled back, and Saudi/UAE has put filters on their money supply. So, Pakistan decided to change the beds with China. That 'relationship' is not going well, and it is a matter of time before Pakistan looks for a new 'partner.' But this time, there may not be any suitable prospects.
The state of Pakistan has been in a terminal decline for decades now. Despite ample resources regarding the fertile land of Indus (home of the oldest civilization in the world), trading ports, and mineral wealth of Balochistan, the economy is less than the economy of Mumbai. The population of Pakistan is 250 million, while the population of Mumbai is 15 million! The economy of Pakistan has been shrinking for the last few years. The hand loans from Arab friends have been drying, the fake money racket they successfully ran for decades came to a halt after demonetization in India a few years ago, and Chinese funds did not add much value to Pakistan's economy. A country can survive political instability, insurrection, coup, or rebellion, but enduring economic instability for a sustained period is almost impossible. People have to eat, so they have to work; if either does not happen for an extended period, the state or the society will fail. Pakistan is close to that point. The question is, why do these bloody shenanigans in India? Why not pay attention internally? And Build a road or two!
Two reasons- first, the old habits die hard, and second, no one in Pakistan knows how to govern their country anymore. The geopolitical events that Pakistan has expertly leveraged to its advantage in the past do not consider Pakistan valid. The 'West' was done with the Cold War more than 35 years ago, while the 'new world order' of post-9/11 happened more than 20 years ago. Pakistan, which is central to these events, has not gotten over it, though. Pakistani Army leveraged these events to milk billions of dollars from the West to fill their pockets and also to continually finger India for no apparent gains. The world has since moved from these events. India has grown into an economic powerhouse, and India's military forces, as recently as four years ago, gave a bloody nose to China. Yet, Pakistan continues to see the world through the lens of India (and Hindus!) Pakistan army and uneducated masses still dream of destroying Hindu India. In this delusion of theirs, Pakistan is the forebearer of Islamic invaders and marauders from medieval times, where they are the only 'true' soldiers of Islam. Pakistan, unfortunately, could never develop any other identity beyond religious zealotry. Any identity or ideology that is not progressive is on the road to perdition.
The tragedy is these religious dimwits will drag the innocents as well.
How will India and India's political leadership react to this? The initial signals are measured and mixed. There was no immediate military action at the border. However, a far more ominous step that India took was to announce their desire to block Indus water into Pakistan. Stopping Indus water will not be easy and will not be a quick leverage. The infrastructure and logistics will take some time. But when this happens, the majority of Pakistan will die of thirst, and whoever is left will starve. Asymmetric warfare is a new frontier in India-Pak conflict that does not bode well for Pakistan.
None of these are good signs for Pakistan. Worse, none of the key world powers said anything against India's initial steps. Even the usual suspects like the United Kingdom and China have kept mum. There is very likely to be military action. The Indian public is essentially expecting and demanding it. The last such wanton terrorist act was met with precise military actions deep within Pakistan's boundary. Something more significant than the last one is likely to happen.
How does Pakistan react to it? I don't know, but their reaction will decide their fate. If they react violently, it will lead to further escalation from the Indian armed forces, even leading to the independence of Balochistan.
