Was the recent brief conflict between India and Pakistan a lost opportunity for India to inflict lasting damage on Pakistan? The dust has not yet settled in Pakistan from all the body-blow bombings Pakistan received from the Indian Air Force. So, to assess the war's outcome is a bit of a dicey proposition. The Indian armed forces and the Government of India (GoI) have also clarified that any adventure, either militarily or through proxy actors, will be considered an act of war. In short, the military hostilities may resume at any moment.
The Background:
After the brutal killings of innocent Hindu tourists in Kashmir, the GoI and Indian armed forces did not fall for a knee-jerk reaction. Instead, the armed forces and the government machinery started working in sync in shaping the response to the latest Islamic terrorist attack. The foreign ministry assiduously worked on foreign relations, while the armed forces must have put finishing touches on the plans to punish Pakistan. Not a single soul in India or abroad thought that these dastardly terrorist attacks would go unpunished. The buzz surrounding India's potential response sparked intense speculation: how robust would their retaliation be, and what goals would be accomplished through their attack? I feel the latter part of the question, where the wheels may have come off.
The Response:
Wow! The Indian armed forces unleashed a breathtaking display of power from the skies, a sight that left the Pakistanis in awe like never before! All three arms of the defence came together and unleashed the punishment. The technology was advanced, and so were the strategies. The escalatory steps were measured and precise. Initially, only the Islamic terrorist camps in Pakistani-occupied Kashmir and mainland Pakistan, spread across hundreds of kilometers, were hit virtually simultaneously with deadly precision by Indian firepower. Though Pakistanis will never confirm the exact number of deaths, hundreds of people, including some of the most dreaded terrorists, met their final fate before even knowing what hit them. The response from Pakistan was rather meek. They tried to increase the theater of war across the entire India-Pakistan border, but they did that by launching hundreds of drones. The strategy was futuristic, but it had two fatal flaws. First, they underestimated the defensive prowess of India, and second, they vastly overestimated the offensive prowess of the Chinese imports they had deployed. The counter response from the Indian forces was indeed a game changer, where an assortment of missiles from all three branches of the armed forces targeted a variety of Pakistani armed infrastructure across the length and breadth of their country. The airbases, seaports, and even Pakistan's nuclear fuel base were bombed with very high accuracy by Indian missiles. Bombings by the advanced Brahmos missile was the punch that brought sense to the Pakistan army brass. They immediately dialled world powers and unfurled the white flag. Pakistan called for a ceasefire, and to everyone's astonishment, India swiftly agreed!
And just like that, India again let go of Pakistan without Pakistan facing consequences for its actions. Pakistan can quickly build the airbases, ports, or runways of strategic importance. And Pakistanis will replace the dead terrorist with fresh recruits in no time. India did not even extract a minimal price from Pakistan for agreeing on the ceasefire. India could have asked them to hand over Hafiz Saeed in return for a truce? Maybe India could have asked for Dawood Ibrahim? Forget about these old-timer Islamic jihadi terrorists, India did not even ask Pakistan to hand over the master handlers of the Pehelgam attack!
What were India's real gains from all of this?
The Expectations:
Going into this conflict, India had strong international support, immense support from the Indians, and strong support from all political parties. The Indian economy is growing robustly, and the forex reserve is at a record high. In short, all the winds required to sail were present. And yet, India did not go for the Pakistani 'jugular'. The PoK was never physically attacked, and the Indian army never crossed the international border. Indian forces did not harm Pakistani civilians despite Pakistanis repeatedly attempting to kill Indian civilians. There were no threats to support Balochistan independence. Can we not have at least levelled the Karachi port? The armed forces and our honorable Prime Minister repeatedly discuss teaching Pakistan a lesson. I'm curious about the lesson that was meant to resonate with Pakistan. There was jargon like 'deterrants', or 'defensive offence', liberally thrown around, but it means nothing. Pakistan lost few jet planes, some radars, some airstrips but Pakistani will to create a Islamist Jihadi state, hell bent on destroying India and kill Hindus in India, is intact. The means may change, but their objective remains the same. I don't think they are even frightened of anything. If they can make India back down so quickly, what is there to be afraid of?
People will point towards India suspending the Indus Water Treaty. The step was pending for a long time. But India cannot logistically stop the Indus water right away. The infrastructure to halt or divert water enough to impact Pakistani agriculture adversely will take years, if not decades, to build. If only this is to be treated as the win for India, then we could have done that without any attacks. Launching BrahMos is meaningless if we are not following that with something of such a proportion that Pakistan will not even think about doing anything stupid ever again!
The Aftermath:
India's sheer military power was on display during this short war, and inversely, Pakistan's sheer lack of it was also displayed. However, India's military might not have changed the status quo. The Pakistani army and jihadis in Pakistan will regroup. They will take their time gaining strength, and they will bide their time for the right opportunity, and then they will again unleash Islamic terrorism on India.
The Modi government may have had legitimate reasons to withdraw entirely from the war. But for now, it feels like a huge letdown and a missed opportunity.
