Despite a somewhat confusing turn of events leading to India readily accepting a ceasefire request from Pakistan, the actions taken by India as part of Operation Sindoor may have far-reaching effects on the future of conflict with Pakistan.
1) Counter Intelligence - For the last two Islamic terrorist attacks, India responded in different ways. For the first one, India sent special forces into Pakistan-occupied Kashmir to eliminate the perpetrators. And the second time, India dropped precision bombs on terrorist camps, removing scores of Islamic terrorists in one go. So, the response to barbaric killings of Hindus in Pahalgam had to be not just different but severely more punishing. And the punishment rained from the sky. Indian armed forces hit multiple locations simultaneously, showcasing superior air power and Israel-level ground intelligence. The armed forces knew where to attack and what they were targeting, allowing them to select precise ammunition. These two advantages show that Indian intelligence has an excellent network of deeply embedded assets within Pakistan and Islamic terrorist organizations. Now, Pakistan not only has to worry about its completely exposed defense and defensive infrastructure, but it will have a tough time trusting anyone within its carefully built Islamic terrorist asset network.
2) "I will look for you, I will find you, and I will kill you" is a famous line from the action movie "Taken." The Indian attack strategy, in response to the Pahalgam attack, embodies the spirit of this dialogue. Indian political establishment finally crossed the mental barrier of 'jaane do' and decided to go for the kill. From now on, India's response to any Islamic terrorist attack from Pakistan will be unleashing violence. There will not be any equivocation in response. For the first time since the start of Islamic terrorism in India, i.e., since 1989 onwards, India has decided not only to respond but respond with a decidedly higher proportion. The operations will no longer be covert and time-bound. Instead, the response will be like an escalation matrix. The counter-response from Pakistan will be dealt with at a step higher intensity. The only way out for Pakistan will be a total defeat or a quick surrender.
3) The Indus Water Treaty weapon - India has finally invoked this weapon after more than 60 years. India always played the role of a big brother and allowed water to flow unabated into Pakistan. India did not even take its share of water as per the agreement and even allowed that water to flow into Pakistan. I don't know why we tried to be so magnanimous. Pakistan wants to occupy not just Kashmir but also kill Hindus in India. Their state policies and strategic goal of Pakistan, especially since Zia-ul-Haq's reign in the 1980s, has been to destroy or dismantle India, come what may. Pakistan sees itself as a soldier of Islam and considers attacking Hindu India as its sacred duty. How do you deal with such delusion? Certainly not through any sensible dialogue or through any rational understanding. The message, then, must be delivered from a position of strength and might. And among many options, leveraging Indust water is essential. Almost 90% of Pakistan's agricultural land relies on the life-giving waters of the Indus River for irrigation. This vital water source is the backbone of the country's farming industry, nurturing the fields that feed the nation. When a river runs dry or overflows its banks, the consequences are immediate and far-reaching, affecting the lives of tens of millions of people. The ripple effects of such events can transform communities overnight, leaving people struggling to adapt to a new reality. The Pakistani junta immediately labeled India's suspension of the Indus Water Treaty as an 'act of war,' and rightfully so. And just like the conventional war they lost in 48 hours, the Pakitan quickly realized they could not win the 'water' war either. Perhaps thirst and hunger will bring some sense to them. Or maybe not!
The consistent message from Indian political leaders and the Indian army is that they have established a red line. If Pakistan crosses that line, it will face severe consequences, including the destruction of its military resources and widespread starvation for millions. However, Pakistan will not stop its provocative behavior. They may remain quiet for a while until the situation calms down, but they are likely to revert to their old tactics soon enough. And when that happens, the real question is whether the Indian government and military will uphold the sanctity of the red line they have drawn.
