No, I didn’t meet Raavan and No, this is not a philosophical musing on him either. After more than three years I watched a Hindi movie – Raavan in the theaters. Watching the movie, so many thoughts were racing in my mind, trust me not the good kind of thoughts, that my brain had indigestion. So like a good ranter I decided to write a blog. I just couldn’t fathom the wastage of money in making that movie and most importantly the wastage of precious gray matter of my upper deck. You know that gray matter isn’t exactly cheap and easy to get.
I am a big movie buff and usually watch a lot of English movies. That doesn’t mean I don’t like Hindi movies. I do love them. It’s just for last few years industries’ propensity of producing trashy movies surpasses my enthusiasm to watch them. Devoid of logic, the movie directors and script writers seems to lack any sort of intelligence usually associated with homo-sapiens. The only thing these stupid directors and producers seems to do is to show skimpily clad woman at every instance. They think that they will recoup their money by satiating carnal needs of general populace. Suffice to say that it’s not only insulting to the art of story telling in the form of movie making but also, there’s no way they can ever compete with porn industry.
In 70’s and 80’s we had actress Helen doing such roles. She was the baby doll and graced numerous memorable ‘item number’ songs. She had elegance in her seductiveness and oomph in her dancing. When I look at the current crop of so called actresses who do the so called ‘sexy’ dance sequences I wonder if they are trying to turn me On or trying to scare me away. In any case they are worth the chuckle because I visualize zombies doing those moves. Think of zombies, instead of walking like dead, doing these dance moves on the street. Trust me they will convert a lot more people into zombiesm than their current rate!
It’s not like every Hindi movie is trash. There are decent number of very good films produced in last decade. Rang De Basanti, Omkara and Taare Zameen Par are some of my personal favorite. These movies were great movies because they had great story line and talented actors working of a great script. The story line had a purpose and directors stuck with the message to the end. Black was another of the good movie but I could watch only first half of the movie. Then there were bunch of no-nonsense movies like Ab Tak Chhapan and Ek Haseena Thi. I also liked 'Being Cyrus'. The movie plot was quite dark, highly unusual for feel-good factor genome in Hindi film industry.
And then there was Raavan. The movie was trashy. I can actual end my blog right here, right now but I am angry. I am angry because the expectation was high from acclaimed director Mani Ratnam. And the story wasn’t regular run-of-the mill, songs-around-trees, love story. But movie was bad. Really really bad! Stupid story line, even stupider script. Ending didn’t make sense nor did the middle part. The beginning was confusing. Emphasize on social issues was counter productive because lack of understanding of these issues on directors’ part. Acting was bad. Not that anything of useful was expected from Aishwarya Rai. She is a beautiful doll. And to her credit she looked like a beautiful doll. Her dialogues barely ran for a page. After getting abducted and after she was done screaming her tonsils out, her grandest dialogue was “muze jaane do” Comon, at least for the love of sweet mangoes, you, sweetpie you gotta at least curse! Remind your abductor of his mother and sister. But don’t say “muze jaane do” it’s insult to your abductor. You see my sweetheart if he wanted to let you go then he wouldn’t abduct you at first place. But for some reason she kept repeating that dialogue till end of the movie even when she was let go. Abhishek Bacchan was awful. His act of terror was laughable. He tried to come up with a signature screaming or ranting or some facial disfigurement that involved him screaming, his eyes widening and his teeth bearing. And just to add more effect to this creating ‘terror’ routine camera was rotating around him faster than the roller coaster. I mean what the f^& wrong with these people?
Abhishek’s character talked about tribal injustice wearing high quality designer cotton clothes. Of course to think that this combination doesn’t go hand in hand would assume that viewer will be using god gifted brain. And using your brain was not allowed during any point of the movie. Not a single character was developed properly and I think that’s some feat to accomplish. The songs for most part didn’t fit in the story. Raheman gave his usual best but he isn’t going to tell director how to use his melodious music in the film. And to waste such a great music is all most criminal.
The title Raavan makes us believe that story is inspired from Ramayana and that the story was based on Ramayana. It was up to certain extent i.e. except for the title there was NO similarity. Raavan never meant to kill Seeta and he didn’t let her go either. And in case if he had let go Seeta, I doubt, Shri Ram would have conned Seeta to go back to Ravan so that he could take revenge. I mean I understand there rarely is any faithfulness in Hindi movies towards the original story but still, this film was not only confusing to the viewers but it probably threw actors off the wagon too.
But I am ready to keep aside these ‘minor’ points. If I to look at the movie script independently, I still found so many loop holes and so much idiocy that I felt like thousands of vuvazulas going berserk. My brain refused to function after the movie ended and I was in the state of delirium for quite some time. It became a task of gigantic proportion for fatigued mind of mine to find the rhythm in three dimensional reality. The emotional atyachar was too much to bear. Seriously!
So much for Roja, Mani!
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Monday, May 24, 2010
Ohh LeBron, Sorry About Thou!
LeBron James is so ubiquitous that an alien landing on mother earth would probably think that LeBron is dunking his way to the title. And that alien (I am talking about the one coming from out of space!) doesn’t even need to be a basketball fanatic. For the love of sweet bananas even Obama is weighing on LJ’s next move. Unfortunately though LeBron is probably having cold shower at home thinking about what went wrong. He is not to be blamed for his teams’ failure to cross the Eastern conference. At least he is not to be blamed alone. But one thing he and Cavaliers needs to understand is that basketball is a team game. When MJ said that there is no I in the team, he spoke truth and nothing but the truth. (Paul Pierce ain’t no truth!)
The Cavaliers game plan was revolving around LJ all the time. Play after Play, quarter after quarter and game after game. That not only put too much pressure on him but it probably demoralizes other team members. I mean if I were a team member, and a playing team member, then I would be little ticked off to see the world revolving around one guy. If LJ had a day off, and granted that he rarely had any day off, then there is no way Cavaliers is going to win that game. That’s what happened in game 5 of their latest clash against Celtics. LJ scored 15 points. His NBA career average is more than 25 and that day he could score only 15! And that’s it; the team went down the drain. At the same time Paul Pierce, the superstar mainstay of the Celtics and a genuinely great player, had a completely off series. He was scoring more than 5 points below his average and yet Celtics buried Cavaliers. Why?, because Celtics played team game.
I vividly remember Cavaliers plays against Magic in last years Eastern Conference Finals. Every time Cavaliers were in the trouble LJ would take the ball in his hand and rest of the four players would pretty much melt away in the crowd. I mean I understand giving ball to your superstar in the crunch time. But try to make a play or at least, create a show of making a play. Don’t just give him the ball and expect some miracle. The other players would move aside so much that, watching the game, I was thinking they might as well pack the bag and watch rest of the game from home. In couple of games LJ did manage to break out of jail but that wasn’t going to happen in every game and the team with best winning record in regular session was soundly beaten by Magic.
It’s interesting that in last four years LJ is taking a step backwards. In 2007 he made it to the Conference finals. In 2008 he was beaten by resurgent Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. 2009 results mirrored 2008 except that Magic handed them return tickets. And this year he didn’t even make it to the finals. What’s up with that?
There is no question about LJ’s talents. He is a genuine superstar. His athleticism, his moves, his jump, his shooting everything, everything is just incredible. It’s exhilarating to watch him rising over the ring and slamming the ball down. The sight of him shadowing over the shooting attempt and rejecting the ball with ‘not-on-my-watch’ disdain instantly infuse adrenalin in your veins. His brute force is absolutely intimidating and yet he doesn’t act as arrogantly as some other players do. He is very sure of his skills and his place in the history. His honest talk and carefully choreographed personality makes you feel warm towards him. But he is carrying too much burden on his strong shoulders. He needs to cede some responsibility and share some limelight with others. He needs to play the game of basketball, not the game of dunk-ball, rejection-ball or dribble-ball but simple, old school game of basketball where you make your basket and stop opposing baskets. The plays need to be set in a way that the team makes the basket every time they are in the front court. And if that means LJ doesn’t score 30 points per game then so be it. Because you can’t be the King just by proclaiming yourself, you need to win the crown.
Or in the case, a championship ring.
p.s. –oh and did I mention that Celtics is going to win this year? If not then here, CELETICS IS GOING TO WIN THIS YEAR!
The Cavaliers game plan was revolving around LJ all the time. Play after Play, quarter after quarter and game after game. That not only put too much pressure on him but it probably demoralizes other team members. I mean if I were a team member, and a playing team member, then I would be little ticked off to see the world revolving around one guy. If LJ had a day off, and granted that he rarely had any day off, then there is no way Cavaliers is going to win that game. That’s what happened in game 5 of their latest clash against Celtics. LJ scored 15 points. His NBA career average is more than 25 and that day he could score only 15! And that’s it; the team went down the drain. At the same time Paul Pierce, the superstar mainstay of the Celtics and a genuinely great player, had a completely off series. He was scoring more than 5 points below his average and yet Celtics buried Cavaliers. Why?, because Celtics played team game.
I vividly remember Cavaliers plays against Magic in last years Eastern Conference Finals. Every time Cavaliers were in the trouble LJ would take the ball in his hand and rest of the four players would pretty much melt away in the crowd. I mean I understand giving ball to your superstar in the crunch time. But try to make a play or at least, create a show of making a play. Don’t just give him the ball and expect some miracle. The other players would move aside so much that, watching the game, I was thinking they might as well pack the bag and watch rest of the game from home. In couple of games LJ did manage to break out of jail but that wasn’t going to happen in every game and the team with best winning record in regular session was soundly beaten by Magic.
It’s interesting that in last four years LJ is taking a step backwards. In 2007 he made it to the Conference finals. In 2008 he was beaten by resurgent Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. 2009 results mirrored 2008 except that Magic handed them return tickets. And this year he didn’t even make it to the finals. What’s up with that?
There is no question about LJ’s talents. He is a genuine superstar. His athleticism, his moves, his jump, his shooting everything, everything is just incredible. It’s exhilarating to watch him rising over the ring and slamming the ball down. The sight of him shadowing over the shooting attempt and rejecting the ball with ‘not-on-my-watch’ disdain instantly infuse adrenalin in your veins. His brute force is absolutely intimidating and yet he doesn’t act as arrogantly as some other players do. He is very sure of his skills and his place in the history. His honest talk and carefully choreographed personality makes you feel warm towards him. But he is carrying too much burden on his strong shoulders. He needs to cede some responsibility and share some limelight with others. He needs to play the game of basketball, not the game of dunk-ball, rejection-ball or dribble-ball but simple, old school game of basketball where you make your basket and stop opposing baskets. The plays need to be set in a way that the team makes the basket every time they are in the front court. And if that means LJ doesn’t score 30 points per game then so be it. Because you can’t be the King just by proclaiming yourself, you need to win the crown.
Or in the case, a championship ring.
p.s. –oh and did I mention that Celtics is going to win this year? If not then here, CELETICS IS GOING TO WIN THIS YEAR!
Wednesday, May 05, 2010
Around the world in one blog
So, Western nations sounded red alert for their citizens traveling to India. According to them (US, UK, Australia and even Canada!) another terrorist attack is imminent in New Delhi. I don’t think I heard anything of this sort coming from Indian government. But then to expect that is to believe that the current administration is actually interested in saving and protecting Indians. They are not. They don’t give a damn. They are happy to be in the power. They haven’t done anything to capture any of the masterminds (there are quite a few) of Mumbai terror attack and what’s worse they are actually having peace dialogue with Pakistan.
Pakistani Prime Minister - “Thanks for letting us kill innocent civilians in your country”
Mr. Manmohan Singh – “you are welcome”
Indian citizens – “can we at least expect you act tough against Naxalites ?”
Mr. Manmohan Singh – “absolutely not, they have right to do what they are doing. In fact, they have first right over resources available in this land”
Indian citizens –“thanks for letting us know. We will continue to vote for you”
The simmering pot of BJP seems to be quite calm lately. That is a development in itself. For quite some time none of the senior leaders could act like senior leaders. Toys were thrown out of pram all the time. Every day someone would get up and start talking. They finally got rid of old party chief and installed a new guy. This seems to be working so far. Rebels have fallen in line and infusion of fresh blood seems to be making its way to the brain. Let’s see how they fair in next round of state elections. One thing’s sure, they know that Delhi is still quite far but what they should know that the road to Delhi will have to go through Gandhinagar.
The Modi-IPL fiasco is finally off the front page but it will make a grand re-entry on May 11, the day Lalit Modi is asked to submit his response to the accusations. It was hilarious to read that most of the paperwork related to IPL is either non-existent or not available. In short deals worth of billions of dollars (the TV broadcasting rights alone were sold for a billion dollars i.e. forty-five thousand crore rupee!) were done either verbally or that there is so much to hide that the papers are locked in Swiss bank. The Board shouldn’t even wait for the enquiry because his ass can be fire for non-existent governance. Whatever happens at the end it’s certain that Mr. Lalit Modi ain’t coming back anytime soon. The conflict of interest was so rampant and so non-chalantly arrogant that none of criticism bothered to mention that Sunil Gavaskar and Ravi Shastri were making money doing match commentary and they were also part of the governing council.
You too Sunny?
The Greece seems to be off the hook, at least for time being. They were binge spending and now when the sugar daddy came knocking the door they are behaving as if they are the victims here. The recent article in Times paints Greeks as corrupt and tax-evading and yet they are protesting against the budget cuts. This whole crisis casts serious doubts on the future of EU. In college I took a course on economic integration of EU. The course detailed the formidable challenges faced by the member nations and how they dealt with them. The sheer amount of effort contributed by all the member nations is not only impressive but it also gives confidence that these nations can deal with any crises in the future. Sadly in their first major crises EU failed miserably. They dilly-dallied in their response and precious time, the most important component in such crises, was wasted for no sensible reason. When the big brothers of EU (Germany and France) did came around to rescue Greece they already lost their credibility and now, they will also loose truck load of money in Greek-hole.
And we will close this bulletin with Goldman Sachs. The financial behemoth, the elite amongst the elite, the cut-throat competitor etc. is lately getting whipped, slapped, slammed, kicked (in groin that is!) by every Joe Shmo. Perhaps, they should hire a better contingency planning team and top of the business PR firm. How arrogant you have to be to actually give out multi-billion dollar bonuses when you actively worked in brining economy down? Well, look no farther, Goldman’s right here. They are arrogant; they are crooked and of course, they are super rich. On one hand they sincerely believe that their counterparties, (i.e. their customers) who they cheated, were sophisticated and should have known better and yet they felt no shame taking billions of dollars directly from Government and indirectly from AIG when the bets they put in the market went sour. I guess their sophistication level needs some calibration.
Pakistani Prime Minister - “Thanks for letting us kill innocent civilians in your country”
Mr. Manmohan Singh – “you are welcome”
Indian citizens – “can we at least expect you act tough against Naxalites ?”
Mr. Manmohan Singh – “absolutely not, they have right to do what they are doing. In fact, they have first right over resources available in this land”
Indian citizens –“thanks for letting us know. We will continue to vote for you”
The simmering pot of BJP seems to be quite calm lately. That is a development in itself. For quite some time none of the senior leaders could act like senior leaders. Toys were thrown out of pram all the time. Every day someone would get up and start talking. They finally got rid of old party chief and installed a new guy. This seems to be working so far. Rebels have fallen in line and infusion of fresh blood seems to be making its way to the brain. Let’s see how they fair in next round of state elections. One thing’s sure, they know that Delhi is still quite far but what they should know that the road to Delhi will have to go through Gandhinagar.
The Modi-IPL fiasco is finally off the front page but it will make a grand re-entry on May 11, the day Lalit Modi is asked to submit his response to the accusations. It was hilarious to read that most of the paperwork related to IPL is either non-existent or not available. In short deals worth of billions of dollars (the TV broadcasting rights alone were sold for a billion dollars i.e. forty-five thousand crore rupee!) were done either verbally or that there is so much to hide that the papers are locked in Swiss bank. The Board shouldn’t even wait for the enquiry because his ass can be fire for non-existent governance. Whatever happens at the end it’s certain that Mr. Lalit Modi ain’t coming back anytime soon. The conflict of interest was so rampant and so non-chalantly arrogant that none of criticism bothered to mention that Sunil Gavaskar and Ravi Shastri were making money doing match commentary and they were also part of the governing council.
You too Sunny?
The Greece seems to be off the hook, at least for time being. They were binge spending and now when the sugar daddy came knocking the door they are behaving as if they are the victims here. The recent article in Times paints Greeks as corrupt and tax-evading and yet they are protesting against the budget cuts. This whole crisis casts serious doubts on the future of EU. In college I took a course on economic integration of EU. The course detailed the formidable challenges faced by the member nations and how they dealt with them. The sheer amount of effort contributed by all the member nations is not only impressive but it also gives confidence that these nations can deal with any crises in the future. Sadly in their first major crises EU failed miserably. They dilly-dallied in their response and precious time, the most important component in such crises, was wasted for no sensible reason. When the big brothers of EU (Germany and France) did came around to rescue Greece they already lost their credibility and now, they will also loose truck load of money in Greek-hole.
And we will close this bulletin with Goldman Sachs. The financial behemoth, the elite amongst the elite, the cut-throat competitor etc. is lately getting whipped, slapped, slammed, kicked (in groin that is!) by every Joe Shmo. Perhaps, they should hire a better contingency planning team and top of the business PR firm. How arrogant you have to be to actually give out multi-billion dollar bonuses when you actively worked in brining economy down? Well, look no farther, Goldman’s right here. They are arrogant; they are crooked and of course, they are super rich. On one hand they sincerely believe that their counterparties, (i.e. their customers) who they cheated, were sophisticated and should have known better and yet they felt no shame taking billions of dollars directly from Government and indirectly from AIG when the bets they put in the market went sour. I guess their sophistication level needs some calibration.
Friday, April 23, 2010
The most expensive tweet
The story in the Ramayana goes like this - Jatayu was a magnificent bird with huge wing span bearing greatest of strength. He also had a brother possessing equal, if not more, strength and propensity to show off. They both would roam the skies touching the stars at will. Then they decided to get closer to the Sun. By then they were flying on ego rather than their strength. Obviously their time had come. In their quest to assent the sun they lost everything. Jatayu’s brother was burnt to ashes but Jatayu survived. As if to teach the lesson to the future generation he was destined to pathetic life with burned wings squatting in earths’ dust.
This story is so apt for Lalit Modi and IPL and I wonder if only he had read this story and learned his lesson then things would have been much easier right now. Actually, things are still easy for him. He is still commissioner of IPL happily twittering and still arrogant in his insistence of innocence. Given the humongous amount of money raised and played around by IPL and involvement of Bollywood and given the general tendency of corruption prevalent in upper echelon of Indian society it would be incredibly stupid to think that he is clean. But right now he is just accused, not yet guilty. I think whether he is clean or not is irrelevant because his functioning rubbed so many people in a wrong way that they will do everything to bring him down. He thought he has figured out antidote for everything and in his stupefying self-importance he forgot the Sun that was coming down on him. That is, the Indian political class.
Actually it’s wrong to term those leeches as a Sun. They are black holes where incredible amount of money vanishes. They are the people who will paint their mother young and sale it to their father for profit. They are the Mafia, albeit the elected one! They want share in everything. Their blessings especially count most when you embezzle money or kill somebody. I am not sure if Modi paid his ‘dues’ to them because what Lalit Modi did was actually worse than killing or stealing.
Instead he brazenly created an empire that generated billions of dollars and needed no license, no new infrastructure and no government assistance of any sort to run. And even though BCCI is ruled by a politician, Modi managed to keep even him off the track too. Mind you, when it comes to cricket BCCI is still the supreme authority but with rapid advent of IPL they were left with lowly job of selecting Indian team for international tournaments. How sad! No big money (the selectors gets paid only Rs. 25 lakh per year for their job), no Hindi movie stars and absolutely no skimpily clad cheerleaders. Obviously they were upset and all they were waiting for was one misstep. And to their delight they found a huge blunder!
To be honest Lalit Modi is correct in his demand of Kochi franchise disclosing partners in the venture. Any professional institution should not have anything to hide. It’s their obligation to inform general populace (and the Tax folks!) the kind of people involved and the kind money paid or made. Except that for some reason Mr. Modi wanted that information only from Kochi franchise. Another complication was the involvement of a Union Cabinet Minister in Indian government. His girlfriend or future-wife got a sweet equity in the franchise and he just happens to be mentoring the franchise in their quest to win the bid. This dude, who also ran for the UN Secretary General position, is either dumb enough to actually believe in what he stated or dumb enough to think that public would believe in his story. Either way he is dumb. He lost his position in the government and his future wife had to forgo her equity in the franchise. Talk about pain! But he accused Modi of siphoning money in this fiasco.
Instead of dealing with this issue with level-headedness Modi decided to take ‘high’ road and in his dense arrogance published the detailed ownership of Kochi franchise on his Twitter. I mean common, the deal was worth$300 million and the best possible medium you could find is Twitter! Those 140 characters may prove to be the most expensive words ever spoken by him. By twittering he grabbed attention of vultures. And he is going to play heavy price for that. He will be forced out of his position for sure and once that position is gone he will fade out of the picture so fast that he won’t recognize himself in the mirror. Life without cheerleaders, four cell phones (he carries four cell phones to keep track of the business!), after-game parties, desperate hotties from Hindi film industry will sure suck.
The thing Mr. Modi forgot is that even though he single handedly created an extremely successful business model that churns out money in bushels, he is expendable. The IPL will run just fine without him at the helm. There are so many self-interests involved and so much money invested that even if he is sacked the engine will keep humming. But that’s not it. See this whole tamasha is for the viewing public and as long as they are glued to the TV or flocking to the stadiums, IPL will keep chugging forward. Modis will come and Modis will go, the king is the public and he was merely the servant.
This story is so apt for Lalit Modi and IPL and I wonder if only he had read this story and learned his lesson then things would have been much easier right now. Actually, things are still easy for him. He is still commissioner of IPL happily twittering and still arrogant in his insistence of innocence. Given the humongous amount of money raised and played around by IPL and involvement of Bollywood and given the general tendency of corruption prevalent in upper echelon of Indian society it would be incredibly stupid to think that he is clean. But right now he is just accused, not yet guilty. I think whether he is clean or not is irrelevant because his functioning rubbed so many people in a wrong way that they will do everything to bring him down. He thought he has figured out antidote for everything and in his stupefying self-importance he forgot the Sun that was coming down on him. That is, the Indian political class.
Actually it’s wrong to term those leeches as a Sun. They are black holes where incredible amount of money vanishes. They are the people who will paint their mother young and sale it to their father for profit. They are the Mafia, albeit the elected one! They want share in everything. Their blessings especially count most when you embezzle money or kill somebody. I am not sure if Modi paid his ‘dues’ to them because what Lalit Modi did was actually worse than killing or stealing.
Instead he brazenly created an empire that generated billions of dollars and needed no license, no new infrastructure and no government assistance of any sort to run. And even though BCCI is ruled by a politician, Modi managed to keep even him off the track too. Mind you, when it comes to cricket BCCI is still the supreme authority but with rapid advent of IPL they were left with lowly job of selecting Indian team for international tournaments. How sad! No big money (the selectors gets paid only Rs. 25 lakh per year for their job), no Hindi movie stars and absolutely no skimpily clad cheerleaders. Obviously they were upset and all they were waiting for was one misstep. And to their delight they found a huge blunder!
To be honest Lalit Modi is correct in his demand of Kochi franchise disclosing partners in the venture. Any professional institution should not have anything to hide. It’s their obligation to inform general populace (and the Tax folks!) the kind of people involved and the kind money paid or made. Except that for some reason Mr. Modi wanted that information only from Kochi franchise. Another complication was the involvement of a Union Cabinet Minister in Indian government. His girlfriend or future-wife got a sweet equity in the franchise and he just happens to be mentoring the franchise in their quest to win the bid. This dude, who also ran for the UN Secretary General position, is either dumb enough to actually believe in what he stated or dumb enough to think that public would believe in his story. Either way he is dumb. He lost his position in the government and his future wife had to forgo her equity in the franchise. Talk about pain! But he accused Modi of siphoning money in this fiasco.
Instead of dealing with this issue with level-headedness Modi decided to take ‘high’ road and in his dense arrogance published the detailed ownership of Kochi franchise on his Twitter. I mean common, the deal was worth$300 million and the best possible medium you could find is Twitter! Those 140 characters may prove to be the most expensive words ever spoken by him. By twittering he grabbed attention of vultures. And he is going to play heavy price for that. He will be forced out of his position for sure and once that position is gone he will fade out of the picture so fast that he won’t recognize himself in the mirror. Life without cheerleaders, four cell phones (he carries four cell phones to keep track of the business!), after-game parties, desperate hotties from Hindi film industry will sure suck.
The thing Mr. Modi forgot is that even though he single handedly created an extremely successful business model that churns out money in bushels, he is expendable. The IPL will run just fine without him at the helm. There are so many self-interests involved and so much money invested that even if he is sacked the engine will keep humming. But that’s not it. See this whole tamasha is for the viewing public and as long as they are glued to the TV or flocking to the stadiums, IPL will keep chugging forward. Modis will come and Modis will go, the king is the public and he was merely the servant.
Friday, April 09, 2010
In Us we Trust!
It was very disturbing and frustrating to see US agencies apprehending Mr. Hadley from Chicago and then convicting him for his role in orchestrating Mumbai massacre and actually, make him sing about his activities. And in the mean time we are still grappling to convict the terrorist who was caught on camera spraying bullets in innocent Mumbaikars. To say that our judicial and political system is rotten will be an understatement. But that’s not the worse part. The worse is that we are basically prepping ourselves for another ghastly murder rampage by Pakistanis in very short future. And if not convicting the terrorist isn’t the nadir then we are actually starting peace dialogue with Pakistan.
I think the real culprit is the Indian populace. Divided into thousands of castes and not ready to expand horizon. And, instead of using the democratic institution to the best of their advantage, they waste their precious vote on nothing. One would think that after thousand years of constant warfare, subjugation and widespread destruction Indians would treasure their freedom. They would fight for it, they will stand by it and they will do everything in their power to maintain it. We have huge standing army and those brave souls protect us so that we can sleep peacefully in our beds. And sleeping is what we exactly do. Do we realize how lucky we are? WE GET TO VOTE. There’s nothing more powerful than voting in the world. Not even the Nuclear bomb. None of our neighbor get to vote. But we do and that too in every five years. We are the masters of our destiny. We can choose our government. We can demand the change; rather, we can enforce the change. And, all that without shedding a drop of blood. Just look across Himalaya. Those poor souls can’t even use Google freely!
But we have decided to sell our vote for cheap. After thousand years of subjugation we have are yet again ready to gamble our freedom for superficiality. There is rarely any introspection on the national level, there is rarely any dialogue for positive change and there is rarely any collective action towards common goal. Instead we opted to have media frenzy, which apart from the fact being divisive, is also inaccurate for most part. Then we have musclo-cracy. Where angry mob- after burning few buses and ably imposing a Bandh- can get their demand fulfilled even if it’s detrimental to the society. Then we have wide swaths of middle class soundly asleep and readily available for slaughter to the wile praying politics and AK-47 wielding terrorist. And of course there is epidemic of consumerism aptly witnessed in IPL matches.
I sometimes believe that we deserve this treatment. We don’t respect ourselves. How are we going to get respect from others? We don’t care about our own brethren. We don’t care how many people are killed in a bomb blasts or in the killing rampages of terrorists. We simply don’t care about our society, our culture and our country. We still keep voting the most inept, inane and anti-national politicians to the helm. To expect anything from this morose, filthy and putrid political class would be a folly. And we love to be foolish, misguided and myopic. We elect these bastards again and again.
Forget about people in Bihar or Tamilnadu or in Bengal demanding justice for Mumbai massacre, what did Mumbaikars do after suffering the terrible events of 26th Nov? Nothing! Absolutely nothing! They went to bed thanking god that they weren’t the unfortunate ones facing the AK-47’s. And then they got up next morning and went to work as if nothing happened. Sometimes you wonder if they lost the touch with reality and the shared sense of humanity; and failing to realize the fact that with ever increasing population and straining resources, their existence depends more on mutual interests. I think herd mentality gives them false sense of security. As long as it ain’t me, I ain’t going to worry. Well, you better keep praying buddy because you never know!
Or you can use democratic machinery to demand justice.
There is no point in saying all this. Because I have said it numerous times before. In fact my commentary on 2006 Mumbai bomb blasts (yes there was a huge bomb blast in 2006 too!) was published in Indian Express. And I pretty much said the same thing. History doesn’t repeat without any reason.
P.S. – We are not only starting peace dialogue with Pakistan but our media hollered when none of the Pakistani cricket players got the IPL contract. Worse, one of our tennis female star, the so called icon for young woman, has decided to marry a Pakistani. I would love to know how on earth she couldn’t find a suitable match out of 14 crore Muslims in India. I can understand Love being blind (he is twice married and divorced!) but in this case, anti-national too.
And for all the mofo (like Indian Express and Times of India) who thinks she has right to marry a Pakistani I want to ask a simple question to her - If Pakistan is to attack us tomorrow, which it does on regular basis anyway, then who is she going to fight for?
I think the real culprit is the Indian populace. Divided into thousands of castes and not ready to expand horizon. And, instead of using the democratic institution to the best of their advantage, they waste their precious vote on nothing. One would think that after thousand years of constant warfare, subjugation and widespread destruction Indians would treasure their freedom. They would fight for it, they will stand by it and they will do everything in their power to maintain it. We have huge standing army and those brave souls protect us so that we can sleep peacefully in our beds. And sleeping is what we exactly do. Do we realize how lucky we are? WE GET TO VOTE. There’s nothing more powerful than voting in the world. Not even the Nuclear bomb. None of our neighbor get to vote. But we do and that too in every five years. We are the masters of our destiny. We can choose our government. We can demand the change; rather, we can enforce the change. And, all that without shedding a drop of blood. Just look across Himalaya. Those poor souls can’t even use Google freely!
But we have decided to sell our vote for cheap. After thousand years of subjugation we have are yet again ready to gamble our freedom for superficiality. There is rarely any introspection on the national level, there is rarely any dialogue for positive change and there is rarely any collective action towards common goal. Instead we opted to have media frenzy, which apart from the fact being divisive, is also inaccurate for most part. Then we have musclo-cracy. Where angry mob- after burning few buses and ably imposing a Bandh- can get their demand fulfilled even if it’s detrimental to the society. Then we have wide swaths of middle class soundly asleep and readily available for slaughter to the wile praying politics and AK-47 wielding terrorist. And of course there is epidemic of consumerism aptly witnessed in IPL matches.
I sometimes believe that we deserve this treatment. We don’t respect ourselves. How are we going to get respect from others? We don’t care about our own brethren. We don’t care how many people are killed in a bomb blasts or in the killing rampages of terrorists. We simply don’t care about our society, our culture and our country. We still keep voting the most inept, inane and anti-national politicians to the helm. To expect anything from this morose, filthy and putrid political class would be a folly. And we love to be foolish, misguided and myopic. We elect these bastards again and again.
Forget about people in Bihar or Tamilnadu or in Bengal demanding justice for Mumbai massacre, what did Mumbaikars do after suffering the terrible events of 26th Nov? Nothing! Absolutely nothing! They went to bed thanking god that they weren’t the unfortunate ones facing the AK-47’s. And then they got up next morning and went to work as if nothing happened. Sometimes you wonder if they lost the touch with reality and the shared sense of humanity; and failing to realize the fact that with ever increasing population and straining resources, their existence depends more on mutual interests. I think herd mentality gives them false sense of security. As long as it ain’t me, I ain’t going to worry. Well, you better keep praying buddy because you never know!
Or you can use democratic machinery to demand justice.
There is no point in saying all this. Because I have said it numerous times before. In fact my commentary on 2006 Mumbai bomb blasts (yes there was a huge bomb blast in 2006 too!) was published in Indian Express. And I pretty much said the same thing. History doesn’t repeat without any reason.
P.S. – We are not only starting peace dialogue with Pakistan but our media hollered when none of the Pakistani cricket players got the IPL contract. Worse, one of our tennis female star, the so called icon for young woman, has decided to marry a Pakistani. I would love to know how on earth she couldn’t find a suitable match out of 14 crore Muslims in India. I can understand Love being blind (he is twice married and divorced!) but in this case, anti-national too.
And for all the mofo (like Indian Express and Times of India) who thinks she has right to marry a Pakistani I want to ask a simple question to her - If Pakistan is to attack us tomorrow, which it does on regular basis anyway, then who is she going to fight for?
Thursday, March 04, 2010
P.S. - The Greece
It was depressing to read New York Times article on possible debt crises in United Kingdom a day after I published my blog. It also shows how our rating agencies are still soundly sleeping at the wheels. They recently threatened to cut ratings of Greece. It’s like Doctor showing up when patient is already dead. It’s just useless. The ratings are supposed to show the financial strength of the bond issuer that can be projected, with a reasonable confidence, into the future. I really don’t need these Rating agency bozos to tell me that Greece may default because well,I ALREADY KNOW. The Greek government was gentleman enough to tell me that they ain't got no money!
Anyways, talking about rating agency is another topic. And I should certainly blog about the working, or for that matter non-working, mechanism of these agencies. The point I wanted to make in this blog is to differentiate between sovereign debts. I remember reading long time ago (I think in Economic Times) how western nations are worried about very high level of debt maintained by Indian government. But the big difference between amount of debt Indian government owes in comparison with the amount that US government owes is who it owes money to. The US government or Greek government owes most of their money to foreign lenders; While Indian government borrows heavily from its own citizens. US government sells treasury bonds to raise the money required to run the country. While anyone can buy treasury, a huge and I mean really really huge portion of these bonds are bought by Chinese, Japanese and Saudi government. These governments have a lot of money in their hands and in terms of government stability, US government is the most stable institution in the world. So even if these governments are possibly loosing money by buying these bonds ( if inflation is higher than the interest you get paid then you are actually loosing money) they still keep buying these bonds as if there’s no tomorrow. Theoretically if these foreign governments are to ask their money back when bond matures (the maturity is usually 30 years) then US government may end up in default. Greek government was worse because they actually borrowed money than selling long-term bonds. Moreover, and I read about this in recent Times article, they actually lied on their balance sheet. They systematically rigged the deficit numbers, undervalued future liabilities and payments. They in fact forgot to log the military expenditure. I mean common…..you kidding me!
The debt that Indian government carries on its books is the money they borrowed from their own people. The savings rate is pretty high among Indians. And the tax bas, historically, have been low. So in order to run the functions, Government of India kept issuing various kinds of bonds. So technically speaking the government is in debt but if they are to default then, well, the country will already be in the trouble anyways.
This also makes me think (yes I am thinking a lot lately) or rather question the growth achieved by western nations. Their growth rate picked up quite a bit in last two-three decades and I wonder how much of that growth was because ‘steroid’ debt. Granted the technological innovations appreciably spurred the productivity but research needs to be done.
Anyways, talking about rating agency is another topic. And I should certainly blog about the working, or for that matter non-working, mechanism of these agencies. The point I wanted to make in this blog is to differentiate between sovereign debts. I remember reading long time ago (I think in Economic Times) how western nations are worried about very high level of debt maintained by Indian government. But the big difference between amount of debt Indian government owes in comparison with the amount that US government owes is who it owes money to. The US government or Greek government owes most of their money to foreign lenders; While Indian government borrows heavily from its own citizens. US government sells treasury bonds to raise the money required to run the country. While anyone can buy treasury, a huge and I mean really really huge portion of these bonds are bought by Chinese, Japanese and Saudi government. These governments have a lot of money in their hands and in terms of government stability, US government is the most stable institution in the world. So even if these governments are possibly loosing money by buying these bonds ( if inflation is higher than the interest you get paid then you are actually loosing money) they still keep buying these bonds as if there’s no tomorrow. Theoretically if these foreign governments are to ask their money back when bond matures (the maturity is usually 30 years) then US government may end up in default. Greek government was worse because they actually borrowed money than selling long-term bonds. Moreover, and I read about this in recent Times article, they actually lied on their balance sheet. They systematically rigged the deficit numbers, undervalued future liabilities and payments. They in fact forgot to log the military expenditure. I mean common…..you kidding me!
The debt that Indian government carries on its books is the money they borrowed from their own people. The savings rate is pretty high among Indians. And the tax bas, historically, have been low. So in order to run the functions, Government of India kept issuing various kinds of bonds. So technically speaking the government is in debt but if they are to default then, well, the country will already be in the trouble anyways.
This also makes me think (yes I am thinking a lot lately) or rather question the growth achieved by western nations. Their growth rate picked up quite a bit in last two-three decades and I wonder how much of that growth was because ‘steroid’ debt. Granted the technological innovations appreciably spurred the productivity but research needs to be done.
Tuesday, March 02, 2010
The Greece troubles
The Greece’s problem is emblematic in various ways. All though the base line story is heard numerous times in recent period. Especially so in the housing bubble. We have a party (a country in this case) borrowing beyond their means and bankers who helped them not only in borrowing but also masking the debt in such a way that the party could borrow more. The bankers reaped hefty fees (Goldman making $300 millions from Greece just in fees) and then started shorting the party, hoping that the party will default in near future. And Greece is indeed flirting with default. In both ways Banks makes a lot of money. I don’t think there is any better example of head you loose and tail I win!
Granted, that no policy maker from Greece were forced to borrow at such a gigantic scale. They did it on their own. But that doesn’t absolve these God’s bankers from cardinal sins. What makes this activity criminal is the fact that these Greek policy makers collateralized the country resources (like revenues from the ports or airports for certain number of years) effectively selling their country to the bankers! If it were 18th century then in the case of default, the bankers (in this case Goldman Sachs) would have owned the Greece till the debt is paid. I even coined a new term to explain the phenomena - Credit Colonization. Colonization is so 20th century! At least mere colonization was good for the conquering nation. But the stuff bankers are doing doesn’t seem to benefit anyone except for themselves. The traders at Goldman Sachs and the mangers who efficiently sold debt to Greece do not care about welfare of anybody except for themselves. The bonus is their redemption.
The general prescription of growth IMF and World Bank usually prescribe is heavy de-regulation and privatization. For this argument’s sake we need to talk concentrate only on de-regulation point. In US there has been trend to deregulate with no or minimal oversight in financial industry. The Feds, the SEC and bunch of other agencies are still active but minimally so. Thus when Banks were coming up with highly cryptic and complex financial instruments these oversight agencies were napping. And when Banks used these instruments to bring down not only other world economies but also US economy these oversight agencies, well, were caught napping. In absence of any oversight or stringent regulations the juggling these Banks did was perfectly legal. I mean legality, one can argue, is subjective. All the instruments used in masking debt were within the gamut of what’s allowed. These bankers were so ahead of the curve that world is still catching up with workings of Options and Swaps. To be honest, it’s not that hard to understand how these instruments work but what makes them deadly is that how they are used and how intertwined they are with each other. The net effect, if contrary to your expectations or calculations, is negative then they will bring down the house so quickly that you stand no chance of surviving.
Another aspect, something I don’t see getting discussed popular publications, is that unlike Stock Market where value actually evaporates, the way these instruments work is that the value or the cost gets transferred to other party. Thus if someone’s loosing money then someone else made the exact amount. The US stock market lost trillions of dollars of value but value lost through the usage of financial instruments was the value gained by the folks who used them correctly. I mean we are talking about folks making hundreds of millions in single year!
This transfer of wealth brings me to my second point.
In economics there is a theory called trickle-down effect. According to the theorem entrepreneurs should be allowed to make as much money as possible through various measures like tax-cuts because the money makes its way down. These rich people with their infinite money will buy infinite amount of services and products. That way the money will find its way to the service providers like restaurant or product sellers like shopping malls. As mentioned earlier in this column, this theory played instrumental role in deregulating US financial industry in 1990’s. (Along with Mr. Greenspan) So far so good! But the evidence is quite contrary. In last thirty years or so, in America, the rich are richer and poor are getting poorer. The middle class is completely stagnated. Interestingly, the same scenario is repeated on global scale where rich nations are getting richer while poor nations are loosing their resources fast and dignity at even faster pace. Fancy that!
The Greece fiasco succinctly explains this contradiction. The policy makers are bozos for sure. Politics of the region played important role too. They couldn’t manage the budget and the deficit but they were dead set about joining EU. Now EU has stringent rules for deficit handling. So instead of taking the hard path of fiscal austerity they decided to actually go full throttle on spending. They borrowed more and banks helped them to do that. And then banks through products like derivatives, Futures and Options helped policy makers to keep the debt concealed. The cost this jugglery was not only the fees incurred to the bankers but also the future installment payments at higher interest rates to the banks who sold the products to them at first place. If you’re logical compass isn’t going coo-koo yet then wait for the climax. The valuable country resources were sold to the bankers at cheap price. The services that government ought to provide are forgone and the hard earned money of citizens was handed over to the Bankers.
Thus it’s an inverse trickle down effect. It’s a trickle-up effect!
You can apply this case study, with minor changes to lot of cases. The average debt owed by a US citizen is rising constantly over the years. The average debt held by US government is rising constantly. The average debt held by African countries is rising constantly. In fact, the debt is increasing rapidly everywhere. And someone’s selling this debt. And that someone is making huge money.
In short the very small minority in rich nations is sucking off wealth from whole planet. This trend will have far reaching impact on social, environmental as well as economical well being of every nation. I am not sure if anyone can stop this juggernaut from rolling. I am just worried that Greece could be just a trailer and horror movie is to follow soon.
Granted, that no policy maker from Greece were forced to borrow at such a gigantic scale. They did it on their own. But that doesn’t absolve these God’s bankers from cardinal sins. What makes this activity criminal is the fact that these Greek policy makers collateralized the country resources (like revenues from the ports or airports for certain number of years) effectively selling their country to the bankers! If it were 18th century then in the case of default, the bankers (in this case Goldman Sachs) would have owned the Greece till the debt is paid. I even coined a new term to explain the phenomena - Credit Colonization. Colonization is so 20th century! At least mere colonization was good for the conquering nation. But the stuff bankers are doing doesn’t seem to benefit anyone except for themselves. The traders at Goldman Sachs and the mangers who efficiently sold debt to Greece do not care about welfare of anybody except for themselves. The bonus is their redemption.
The general prescription of growth IMF and World Bank usually prescribe is heavy de-regulation and privatization. For this argument’s sake we need to talk concentrate only on de-regulation point. In US there has been trend to deregulate with no or minimal oversight in financial industry. The Feds, the SEC and bunch of other agencies are still active but minimally so. Thus when Banks were coming up with highly cryptic and complex financial instruments these oversight agencies were napping. And when Banks used these instruments to bring down not only other world economies but also US economy these oversight agencies, well, were caught napping. In absence of any oversight or stringent regulations the juggling these Banks did was perfectly legal. I mean legality, one can argue, is subjective. All the instruments used in masking debt were within the gamut of what’s allowed. These bankers were so ahead of the curve that world is still catching up with workings of Options and Swaps. To be honest, it’s not that hard to understand how these instruments work but what makes them deadly is that how they are used and how intertwined they are with each other. The net effect, if contrary to your expectations or calculations, is negative then they will bring down the house so quickly that you stand no chance of surviving.
Another aspect, something I don’t see getting discussed popular publications, is that unlike Stock Market where value actually evaporates, the way these instruments work is that the value or the cost gets transferred to other party. Thus if someone’s loosing money then someone else made the exact amount. The US stock market lost trillions of dollars of value but value lost through the usage of financial instruments was the value gained by the folks who used them correctly. I mean we are talking about folks making hundreds of millions in single year!
This transfer of wealth brings me to my second point.
In economics there is a theory called trickle-down effect. According to the theorem entrepreneurs should be allowed to make as much money as possible through various measures like tax-cuts because the money makes its way down. These rich people with their infinite money will buy infinite amount of services and products. That way the money will find its way to the service providers like restaurant or product sellers like shopping malls. As mentioned earlier in this column, this theory played instrumental role in deregulating US financial industry in 1990’s. (Along with Mr. Greenspan) So far so good! But the evidence is quite contrary. In last thirty years or so, in America, the rich are richer and poor are getting poorer. The middle class is completely stagnated. Interestingly, the same scenario is repeated on global scale where rich nations are getting richer while poor nations are loosing their resources fast and dignity at even faster pace. Fancy that!
The Greece fiasco succinctly explains this contradiction. The policy makers are bozos for sure. Politics of the region played important role too. They couldn’t manage the budget and the deficit but they were dead set about joining EU. Now EU has stringent rules for deficit handling. So instead of taking the hard path of fiscal austerity they decided to actually go full throttle on spending. They borrowed more and banks helped them to do that. And then banks through products like derivatives, Futures and Options helped policy makers to keep the debt concealed. The cost this jugglery was not only the fees incurred to the bankers but also the future installment payments at higher interest rates to the banks who sold the products to them at first place. If you’re logical compass isn’t going coo-koo yet then wait for the climax. The valuable country resources were sold to the bankers at cheap price. The services that government ought to provide are forgone and the hard earned money of citizens was handed over to the Bankers.
Thus it’s an inverse trickle down effect. It’s a trickle-up effect!
You can apply this case study, with minor changes to lot of cases. The average debt owed by a US citizen is rising constantly over the years. The average debt held by US government is rising constantly. The average debt held by African countries is rising constantly. In fact, the debt is increasing rapidly everywhere. And someone’s selling this debt. And that someone is making huge money.
In short the very small minority in rich nations is sucking off wealth from whole planet. This trend will have far reaching impact on social, environmental as well as economical well being of every nation. I am not sure if anyone can stop this juggernaut from rolling. I am just worried that Greece could be just a trailer and horror movie is to follow soon.
Friday, January 29, 2010
Say what?
It’s funny to see Pakistani reaction to recent IPL auction. I mean, common, they should be the first one to get picked. In fact in the name of inclusiveness, IPL should be rechristened (this word may be blasphemous to the Islamic state of Pakistan!)as PPL – Pakistan Premier League. (No relation to Muslim League) They have done so much for the world and particularly for India that snubbing them like this reflects poorly on Indian attitude.
They have worked so hard for last twenty years or so that the least they deserve is a million dollar contract from IPL. Not just the cricketer but each and every one of the Pakistani deserve one million dollar contract from India. The terrorists especially so! They have attacked us in Kashmir killing thousands of our soldiers. They attacked us in Kargil killing, again, thousands of our soldiers. In the mean time they bombed the civilians in Mumbai repeatedly. But we still didn’t get the message. So they had to bomb us in various other cities at various point of time. Still nothing. So finally the decent souls of Pakistan citizenry took matter in their arms and stormed Mumbai with AK-47 in their hands. They had to find their own way in Mumbai! I mean, Indians couldn’t even provide them decent transportation. What kind of country are we?
And now the dastardly auction of IPL. It was final slap on Pakistan. All they want is to kill Indians, destroy our cities and just create anarchy. And in return they are asking only few million dollars worth of contracts on Cricketing term. Why are Indians so cheap? That’s just wrong…..wrong wrong wrong wrong……wrong wrong wrong….it’s WRONG!
On the ‘lighter’ note, the defense secretary of US came to India and pronounced that India can’t be held back if another attack like the one happened in Mumbai takes place again. Interesting comment indeed! Because I don’t remember something on this line emanating from any of the Indian government official. They have maintained their saintly demeanor and decided to not to act against anything or anyone. They are perfectly happy with the situation where innocent Indians are getting killed. But retaliation….now that’s against Gandhian principal, isn’t it?
P.S. – Shahrukh Khan – the superstar of INDIA wants Pakistani players in his team. Dude, why don’t go to Pakistan and start a new team? To this though, in the mean time, Pakistani Cricket board decided not to allow any Pakistani player to participate in IPL. Thanks for showing little decency and self-esteem because on this of border we have none of either.
They have worked so hard for last twenty years or so that the least they deserve is a million dollar contract from IPL. Not just the cricketer but each and every one of the Pakistani deserve one million dollar contract from India. The terrorists especially so! They have attacked us in Kashmir killing thousands of our soldiers. They attacked us in Kargil killing, again, thousands of our soldiers. In the mean time they bombed the civilians in Mumbai repeatedly. But we still didn’t get the message. So they had to bomb us in various other cities at various point of time. Still nothing. So finally the decent souls of Pakistan citizenry took matter in their arms and stormed Mumbai with AK-47 in their hands. They had to find their own way in Mumbai! I mean, Indians couldn’t even provide them decent transportation. What kind of country are we?
And now the dastardly auction of IPL. It was final slap on Pakistan. All they want is to kill Indians, destroy our cities and just create anarchy. And in return they are asking only few million dollars worth of contracts on Cricketing term. Why are Indians so cheap? That’s just wrong…..wrong wrong wrong wrong……wrong wrong wrong….it’s WRONG!
On the ‘lighter’ note, the defense secretary of US came to India and pronounced that India can’t be held back if another attack like the one happened in Mumbai takes place again. Interesting comment indeed! Because I don’t remember something on this line emanating from any of the Indian government official. They have maintained their saintly demeanor and decided to not to act against anything or anyone. They are perfectly happy with the situation where innocent Indians are getting killed. But retaliation….now that’s against Gandhian principal, isn’t it?
P.S. – Shahrukh Khan – the superstar of INDIA wants Pakistani players in his team. Dude, why don’t go to Pakistan and start a new team? To this though, in the mean time, Pakistani Cricket board decided not to allow any Pakistani player to participate in IPL. Thanks for showing little decency and self-esteem because on this of border we have none of either.
Thursday, January 07, 2010
The iPod Revolution
Honestly speaking I am not a technology guy at all. I love technology and I follow it quite a bit but my interest lay more in the Sales and Market Share. It’s good to know the OS that my iPhone works on but that doesn’t excite me as much. Yet one thing that stuck in my throat like tiny fish-bone is that during all the hoopla, discussions, articles and blogs over major events of last decade, Apple iPod did not feature anywhere. Granted, iPhone – the more advanced progeny of iPod’s that can dial, was chosen as Time Device of the Year but I think the launch of ipod in early part of this decade was a seismic event in the whole of technological world.
The original iPod, if we are to look at it now, was bulky, squary and rather heavy. But within few months after lunch it was the coolest thing on the mother earth. It had big bright screen and just one button. And attractive white color. Seriously, who knew that White will be hip again? The user interface was out of world and music quality wasn’t bad either. Moreover, the memory could store hundreds of thousands of songs. The whole world of music listeners were turned upside down. The CD players were already heading towards yard sales yet no body thought that the digital music players will shift the gear so quickly that the first generation digital players of Sony et al. will become obsolete too.
The original iPods were, actually, quite heavy on the wallet . Compared to other digital players they were wickedly expensive. I guess that’s why market didn’t pay too much attention to the iPod advances. Moreover, Apple wasn’t pioneer in this market. Sony had good quality digital players in the market for quite some time. I remember me buying my Sony digital player that had no bright screen but worked just fine. But the designing department of Apple stole the show. The single button interface was just too much of a draw and soon whole of young generation decided to go broke to buy iPods.
The seamless interface between iPod and iTunes was another factor that played major role in boosting iPod sales. Apple won over host of music companies and completely upstaged the existing model of selling music. Apple successfully managed to create a viable and cheaper alternative to piracy. The ability to buy a single song for a buck or an album for 10 bucks was incredible. Just by click of a button you could buy your music, put into your iPod and boom, you go.
All this changed the technological market for good. The companies had been playing catch-up with Apple since then. The iPod went through another set of drastic changes, strengthening their iron grip on the market. Suddenly, every digital player had to have a bright screen with minimum number of buttons. The memory had to be in multiple gigabytes. But Apple wasn't done yet. It continued on the path and pulled out another rabbit - iPhones. A phone that can play music or the music player that can dial phone, however way you want to see it. And it had only one key! It was iPhone’s turn to revolutionize the phone industry. Now all the phones had to be smart phones. The phones are getting better and faster. The data, once a costly indulgence, is becoming a necessity. The apps have drastically changed the way we operate in our surroundings.
The whole set of events are so furious in pace that I think people haven’t realized that they went to at least three or four generation worth of change in a music and phone industry in less than one generation. And the pace is only going to pick up. The phones ceased to exist merely as a phone rather it transformed into a palm computer. (if only the original Palms had thought about adding phone to their palms!) And the music player that started it all simply remained just one more feature in an all powerful phone.
Yet imprints of iPod will be unmistakable in everything that’s currently available and everything that will come in the future. The simplicity of the interface, the hip and cool nature of the design and high powered multi-functionality are some of the factors that every future developer has to take into account. What’s important is that the ferocity with which iPod cut through the technology world created only positive ripples. I don’t think any other event in last decade can rival the satisfaction generated by iPod and iPodic products.
A revolution with no side effect is extremely rare and certainly warrants a high place on the pedestal.
The original iPod, if we are to look at it now, was bulky, squary and rather heavy. But within few months after lunch it was the coolest thing on the mother earth. It had big bright screen and just one button. And attractive white color. Seriously, who knew that White will be hip again? The user interface was out of world and music quality wasn’t bad either. Moreover, the memory could store hundreds of thousands of songs. The whole world of music listeners were turned upside down. The CD players were already heading towards yard sales yet no body thought that the digital music players will shift the gear so quickly that the first generation digital players of Sony et al. will become obsolete too.
The original iPods were, actually, quite heavy on the wallet . Compared to other digital players they were wickedly expensive. I guess that’s why market didn’t pay too much attention to the iPod advances. Moreover, Apple wasn’t pioneer in this market. Sony had good quality digital players in the market for quite some time. I remember me buying my Sony digital player that had no bright screen but worked just fine. But the designing department of Apple stole the show. The single button interface was just too much of a draw and soon whole of young generation decided to go broke to buy iPods.
The seamless interface between iPod and iTunes was another factor that played major role in boosting iPod sales. Apple won over host of music companies and completely upstaged the existing model of selling music. Apple successfully managed to create a viable and cheaper alternative to piracy. The ability to buy a single song for a buck or an album for 10 bucks was incredible. Just by click of a button you could buy your music, put into your iPod and boom, you go.
All this changed the technological market for good. The companies had been playing catch-up with Apple since then. The iPod went through another set of drastic changes, strengthening their iron grip on the market. Suddenly, every digital player had to have a bright screen with minimum number of buttons. The memory had to be in multiple gigabytes. But Apple wasn't done yet. It continued on the path and pulled out another rabbit - iPhones. A phone that can play music or the music player that can dial phone, however way you want to see it. And it had only one key! It was iPhone’s turn to revolutionize the phone industry. Now all the phones had to be smart phones. The phones are getting better and faster. The data, once a costly indulgence, is becoming a necessity. The apps have drastically changed the way we operate in our surroundings.
The whole set of events are so furious in pace that I think people haven’t realized that they went to at least three or four generation worth of change in a music and phone industry in less than one generation. And the pace is only going to pick up. The phones ceased to exist merely as a phone rather it transformed into a palm computer. (if only the original Palms had thought about adding phone to their palms!) And the music player that started it all simply remained just one more feature in an all powerful phone.
Yet imprints of iPod will be unmistakable in everything that’s currently available and everything that will come in the future. The simplicity of the interface, the hip and cool nature of the design and high powered multi-functionality are some of the factors that every future developer has to take into account. What’s important is that the ferocity with which iPod cut through the technology world created only positive ripples. I don’t think any other event in last decade can rival the satisfaction generated by iPod and iPodic products.
A revolution with no side effect is extremely rare and certainly warrants a high place on the pedestal.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Is Financial Engineering Bad?
One of the constant criticisms emerging from recent credit crises is that financial engineering does not do any good to the society. To dismiss the whole work stream merely as jugglery that provides intellectual satisfaction to the brainy and a nightmare to the general public is kind of unfair. It’s like saying anything related to Nuclear reactor is bad. It depends on what you using nuclear reactor for. If it’s for power generation then it’s extremely clean and over the extended period of time costs less but if you are to build weapon then kaa-boom.
The securitization phenomenon – the root cause of the whole crises – is relatively new. It was crystallized in 1960’s and picked up the pace in late 80’s and 90’s. The concept is quite simple and intuitive at the core. If you have $100 to lend then you can loan it only to one person (considering the need is $100) or you can create a security out of it and free up the capital. Once you loan $100 at 10% per annum, the expectation is that you will receive $110 at the end of one year. Instead of waiting for one year, you can sale that loan to a third party for $102. You make $2 immediately while the third party makes $8 over the period of one year. Now you have $102 for loaning out. The cycle continues. This is the base logic. Now add thousands of loans together and then sell that product to the third party. The risk is transferred to third party at certain cost and more money is available for business. Securitization is primarily used in mortgages business, where the loans are given for non-liquid assets like buying houses or cars. The type of securitization I explained above is the simplest format and more complex products are built based on customer needs as well as market conditions. This phenomenon has potential to raise huge amount of capital. It also seamlessly matches people who have money with people who need money making debt a tradable liquid asset. The point to note here is that these assets are not as liquid as stock market or bond market. There is no centralized exchange to
So far so good!
The problem actually started when money raised through investor was single handedly diverted towards housing market. The supply of money was far more than actually needed. In short money became cheap. So, folks started building houses or buying houses in the hope the prices will keep going up and there will always be a buyer. That’s when law of gravity started working. I mean, literally! Home is an illiquid asset. You can’t flip it the way you can play with stock market. In the stock market the maximum loss is the amount of money invested. On the other hand, home keeps exhausting money in the form of maintenance cost and property taxes. So, if you failed to sale the house in time then you are pretty much screwed. Obviously default rates rose sharply. This alone shouldn’t have precipitated into a perfect storm. Both the regulators as well as banks knew that this bubble is bound to burst but they kept playing the game till the end. Bankers kept buying, structuring and servicing extremely complex, highly illiquid securitization products. Rating agencies kept their ratings for such products intact. CDS – Credit Default Swap is insurance in the finance world. As the name suggests, in case of default the seller of CDS pays you the money. AIG kept selling such CDS to practically everyone. The concentration risk became very high for most of the bank and yet the risk management departments in any of the banks failed to raise alarm. Regulators refused to even acknowledge that there is any bubble till the end. The economy, specially the size of US, is very hard to handle in short term. But if problem was identified and measures were taken to divert the flow of money into other sectors like renewable energy then that could have averted the disaster.
It is worth noting that not that all the criticism heaped on financial engineering is wrong. When huge amount of money started finding its way into housing market, size of this work stream vis-à-vis others started growing rapidly. It did not employ that many people nor did create any infrastructure. It was basically castles in the air that still created real gains to the investors rational enough to cash out in time. So when the whole thing crumbled there was nothing left and yet it created disproportionately large ripples across the whole economy. All though the whole housing market is valued in tune of couple of trillion dollars, in a typical fashion everyone wanted to get out at once. The result was that the stock market lost staggering 11 trillions worth of value. With short-term debt notes practically ceasing to exists, it all most brought down many companies to halt. New investment froze and new business floundered. The job loss that started in the banking sector soon engulfed all other sectors. People lost their retirement benefits, pension benefits and of course their investment. Wall Street for all practical purposes ceased to exist as three of the five investment banks either went bankrupt or were bought out. It was chaos for sure.
In the end lot of things went wrong at the same time for such a disaster. And I hope that the field of financial engineering is not made into a scapegoat.
The securitization phenomenon – the root cause of the whole crises – is relatively new. It was crystallized in 1960’s and picked up the pace in late 80’s and 90’s. The concept is quite simple and intuitive at the core. If you have $100 to lend then you can loan it only to one person (considering the need is $100) or you can create a security out of it and free up the capital. Once you loan $100 at 10% per annum, the expectation is that you will receive $110 at the end of one year. Instead of waiting for one year, you can sale that loan to a third party for $102. You make $2 immediately while the third party makes $8 over the period of one year. Now you have $102 for loaning out. The cycle continues. This is the base logic. Now add thousands of loans together and then sell that product to the third party. The risk is transferred to third party at certain cost and more money is available for business. Securitization is primarily used in mortgages business, where the loans are given for non-liquid assets like buying houses or cars. The type of securitization I explained above is the simplest format and more complex products are built based on customer needs as well as market conditions. This phenomenon has potential to raise huge amount of capital. It also seamlessly matches people who have money with people who need money making debt a tradable liquid asset. The point to note here is that these assets are not as liquid as stock market or bond market. There is no centralized exchange to
So far so good!
The problem actually started when money raised through investor was single handedly diverted towards housing market. The supply of money was far more than actually needed. In short money became cheap. So, folks started building houses or buying houses in the hope the prices will keep going up and there will always be a buyer. That’s when law of gravity started working. I mean, literally! Home is an illiquid asset. You can’t flip it the way you can play with stock market. In the stock market the maximum loss is the amount of money invested. On the other hand, home keeps exhausting money in the form of maintenance cost and property taxes. So, if you failed to sale the house in time then you are pretty much screwed. Obviously default rates rose sharply. This alone shouldn’t have precipitated into a perfect storm. Both the regulators as well as banks knew that this bubble is bound to burst but they kept playing the game till the end. Bankers kept buying, structuring and servicing extremely complex, highly illiquid securitization products. Rating agencies kept their ratings for such products intact. CDS – Credit Default Swap is insurance in the finance world. As the name suggests, in case of default the seller of CDS pays you the money. AIG kept selling such CDS to practically everyone. The concentration risk became very high for most of the bank and yet the risk management departments in any of the banks failed to raise alarm. Regulators refused to even acknowledge that there is any bubble till the end. The economy, specially the size of US, is very hard to handle in short term. But if problem was identified and measures were taken to divert the flow of money into other sectors like renewable energy then that could have averted the disaster.
It is worth noting that not that all the criticism heaped on financial engineering is wrong. When huge amount of money started finding its way into housing market, size of this work stream vis-à-vis others started growing rapidly. It did not employ that many people nor did create any infrastructure. It was basically castles in the air that still created real gains to the investors rational enough to cash out in time. So when the whole thing crumbled there was nothing left and yet it created disproportionately large ripples across the whole economy. All though the whole housing market is valued in tune of couple of trillion dollars, in a typical fashion everyone wanted to get out at once. The result was that the stock market lost staggering 11 trillions worth of value. With short-term debt notes practically ceasing to exists, it all most brought down many companies to halt. New investment froze and new business floundered. The job loss that started in the banking sector soon engulfed all other sectors. People lost their retirement benefits, pension benefits and of course their investment. Wall Street for all practical purposes ceased to exist as three of the five investment banks either went bankrupt or were bought out. It was chaos for sure.
In the end lot of things went wrong at the same time for such a disaster. And I hope that the field of financial engineering is not made into a scapegoat.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
'Grand'ulkar
I know I know I was the one who wrote “Endulkar” blog some time ago. Call me a hypocrite or anything but at least I am ready to stand up to my fault. One lesson I learned is that no matter what, one should never write off a Champion. Champions are rarest of rare breed and hard to recognize but then Sachin's case is no secret. All though for what ever it's worth I must say that even in my last blog on him I expressed my admiration and respect for him. The reason for my recent epiphany was his blasting against Aussie in recent One Day international. I think it will be huge injustice to him if we see him only through the prism of statistics. Not that he comes out any less in that department. The staggering amount of runs he accumulated puts him in a rarefied air that’s usually reserved for grand masters of any trade. In fact, he doesn’t even have any other company or competition there. There are good players, there are great players and then there is Sachin Tendulkar.
Statistics is just one aspect of his grand career. To get obsessed by it is like getting lost in the woods and missing out the jungle. He started at the tender age of 17 when most of the kids are busy in doing nothing. Most of the kids are obsessed with some sort of sport or some sort of hobby but that’s the extent it goes it. Particularly in India the focus on education is so intense that if by any chance a kid is gifted with skills in certain sport then he or she is surely won’t be using them. But Sachin was one of millions. His early exploits in his school days were legendary by any standards. The way he scored runs and the way he would hit kids of his age around the ground is part of folklore. Of course he was lucky to be born in the city of Mumbai where Cricket has fanatical following. The city has produced numerous cricketing luminaries of international fame. At one point 80% percent of Indian team would hail from Mumbai alone. This helped Sachin in a sense that he was spotted early and was put on fast-track for Indian team. Still to debut against Pakistan in Pakistan was something. Not only you need talent to face Imran, Wasim and Waqar (it was Waqar Younis’s debut series too) but you need balls to stand against the these fiercest rivals. He had first one in ample and he showed second part quite successfully. Thus a star was truly born. But that still doesn’t truly capture his greatness.
The true greatness lies in his consistency. In recently ODI match against Australia it was fascinating to see him batting with Ravindra Jadeja who was born in 1988, merely a year before Sachin made his debut. For last twenty years he is scoring runs in every corner of the world and against every opponent possible. The sheer amount of travel and preparation would bring down mightiest of travelers. Then add the controversies surrounding game, internal team politics and generational change in the cricketing fraternity and the true character of a warrior starts to emerge. Oh and did I mention the burden of hundreds of millions of people for whom anything less than a century is a failure? The tremendous love showered on him by public comes at a very steep price.
His endurance, his all most religious zeal to score run and hunger to win for India over the span of twenty years truly makes him the greatest. Yes he scored runs but that’s merely a by product. It only shows that he knows his trade well. He is humble and never makes fuss about his status. He still talks in Marathi and still mingles with commoner whenever it’s feasible. Your truly was fortunate to see him up close twice. He was serene, focused and without an iota of attitude. He still carried his own kit and practiced with local kids (who are certain to tell the tale to their grandkids) telling them to throw ball at him as fast as possible. It was quite surprising to see how he remains firmly rooted in ground in such a limelight for twenty years.
I think he deserves Bharat-Ratna. And it shouldn’t be conferred to him when he is too old to walk but right now when he is still thrilling millions with his skills. I feel fortunate that I was part of the generation that witnessed the legend as it happened.
Statistics is just one aspect of his grand career. To get obsessed by it is like getting lost in the woods and missing out the jungle. He started at the tender age of 17 when most of the kids are busy in doing nothing. Most of the kids are obsessed with some sort of sport or some sort of hobby but that’s the extent it goes it. Particularly in India the focus on education is so intense that if by any chance a kid is gifted with skills in certain sport then he or she is surely won’t be using them. But Sachin was one of millions. His early exploits in his school days were legendary by any standards. The way he scored runs and the way he would hit kids of his age around the ground is part of folklore. Of course he was lucky to be born in the city of Mumbai where Cricket has fanatical following. The city has produced numerous cricketing luminaries of international fame. At one point 80% percent of Indian team would hail from Mumbai alone. This helped Sachin in a sense that he was spotted early and was put on fast-track for Indian team. Still to debut against Pakistan in Pakistan was something. Not only you need talent to face Imran, Wasim and Waqar (it was Waqar Younis’s debut series too) but you need balls to stand against the these fiercest rivals. He had first one in ample and he showed second part quite successfully. Thus a star was truly born. But that still doesn’t truly capture his greatness.
The true greatness lies in his consistency. In recently ODI match against Australia it was fascinating to see him batting with Ravindra Jadeja who was born in 1988, merely a year before Sachin made his debut. For last twenty years he is scoring runs in every corner of the world and against every opponent possible. The sheer amount of travel and preparation would bring down mightiest of travelers. Then add the controversies surrounding game, internal team politics and generational change in the cricketing fraternity and the true character of a warrior starts to emerge. Oh and did I mention the burden of hundreds of millions of people for whom anything less than a century is a failure? The tremendous love showered on him by public comes at a very steep price.
His endurance, his all most religious zeal to score run and hunger to win for India over the span of twenty years truly makes him the greatest. Yes he scored runs but that’s merely a by product. It only shows that he knows his trade well. He is humble and never makes fuss about his status. He still talks in Marathi and still mingles with commoner whenever it’s feasible. Your truly was fortunate to see him up close twice. He was serene, focused and without an iota of attitude. He still carried his own kit and practiced with local kids (who are certain to tell the tale to their grandkids) telling them to throw ball at him as fast as possible. It was quite surprising to see how he remains firmly rooted in ground in such a limelight for twenty years.
I think he deserves Bharat-Ratna. And it shouldn’t be conferred to him when he is too old to walk but right now when he is still thrilling millions with his skills. I feel fortunate that I was part of the generation that witnessed the legend as it happened.
Saturday, November 07, 2009
The state of Afghanistan
As the debate over whether US should be sending more troops to Afghanistan rages the real question remains unanswered. In fact, no one is even asking the real question. The question do we need a nation called Afghanistan? What will happen if there is no Afghanistan? Actually you can ask that question about any country? But that will just be a stupid counter-argument. A country can be defined as a society living within same geographic region sharing the common history and culture working towards the common goal of prosperous future. In that sense, Afghanistan can be called as country. Even if we disregard the fact that no one there wants to work for prosperous future, they do share similar culture and history. But the point that tends to get lost it that the notion of a country or nation-state is itself relatively new. It’s a legacy of European colonist and has resulted into huge number of human loss in last sixty years or so. The tribal/nations of Africa especially are paying humongous price.
Afghanistan was never a unified entity. Whenever people talk about Afghanistan the timeline usually goes as far back as to Soviet invasion. For current memory that was the first time Afghanistan played its role as a playground for superpowers to fight. All though only because of Saudi money and American ammunition that Afghans could defeat Soviets, the fact that they won’t budge even in the face of insurmountable odds is quite something. And it may sound harsh but that’s what they like. They like to fight. If not foreign invaders then they will fight with each other or they will invade others (historically, they would invade Delhi). All the talk them having rich culture is kind of mystifying because if war and violence can be defined as culture then they do come out on the top of ‘cultured’ nations.
Afghanistan –known as Gandhar in ancient time, was always considered as frontier post for India. You cross Afghanistan’s rugged terrain and you get passage to reach fertile plains of Ganges. Alexander came the same way and he all most succeeded. The Huns did the same thing all though they settled and got assimilated in the local population. Still Afghanistan was known for higher seat of education. Taxila university was one of the biggest university in the world. But it changed completed with advent of Islam.
The first recorded invasion of Muslim Arabs was in 712 A.D. All though the invaders reached Multan, they turned back after looting. Then it became a frontier for Muslim zealots in their quest to expand Dar-Ul-Islam i.e. Muslim dominion. The region bore the bloodiest brunt. The native population was decimated or converted. The entire infrastructure was destroyed and places of learning were burnt down. Gradually all that’s left was warring and blood thirsty people wanting to and waiting for next fight. What was interesting is that once a Sultanate established their grip on Delhi (there were a factory line of them) the goal would be stop invasion of another foreign invader from the gates of Afghanistan or to stop the invasion of Afghans itself. Mughal Empire’s fight to keep that area under control was largely unsuccessful. Except for the brief period of 1650’s and 1660’s, Mughals were draining their treasury as well as soldiers into abyss.
With the fall of Mughal empire there was brief period of peace in Afghanistan under Nadir Shah dynasty but then they wasted no time in invading India numerous times.
As world started coming under the spell of western imperialism the Afghanistan gradually lost its prominence as gateway to India. Still for British imperialist the threat of Russians descending down the plains of Indus and Ganges was real. And their would do anything to preserve the jewel of their empire. Afghanistan unsurprisingly again became a playground between British and Russian empire. British Empire wanly tried to subdue the lawless and unforgiving tracts. They quickly learned that it’s easy just to position the tribes against each other and maintain the relative inert state rather than to establish a state. We can say that this strategy was largely successful as the area was in relative peace. Post independence i.e. after Indian independence, Afghanistan came into existence, for the first time in last thousand years or so, as a sovereign nation. Still the tribal region along Durrand line, the line that haphazardly divides Afghanistan and Pakistan, was still autonomous.
It wasn’t meant to last for long. Soviet invasion shattered the peace for good, though this time the prize wasn’t India. Afghanistan was merely another country to be won by two warring super powers. Afghanistan paid dear price. By the time Russians depart the Afghanistan was completely destroyed. Million or so people were killed and again, what’s left was unemployed young and middle aged people with lots of guns and ammunition and nothing to do. More importantly the nation of Afghanistan seized to exist for all practical purpose. It wasn’t a surprise that another disaster was waiting to happen.
It was quite interesting to see how these gun-wielding blood–thirsty terrorist, just like their forefathers, again descended onto India creating havoc in the state of Kashmir. The real perpetrators were Pakistanis but the it was no-brainer that these deranged people will soon spread tentacles through out the globe. What no one thought was that the repercussion would felt violently in New York.
That brings us back to US – another superpower – trying or rather, struggling to make the sense of situation in Afghanistan. And unless they think outside the box, Afghanistan would keep draining resources for decades. We need to realize that the concept of Afghanistan as a Nation just can’t take roots in the rough terrain of Hindu-kush Mountains. The best strategy would simply be to divide the country into the ‘tribe-stan’. Given autonomy to all the tribes and let them leave their life as they please. The only think, and admittedly not easy thing to do, is to keep eye on the ammunition that's going in and out of these tribes. This is all easier said than done.Anyone dares to table this idea even for the sake of discussion will face huge uproar from everyone.
Unfortunately, this won't necessarily solve or stem the problem of terrorism. Because the real cancer lies on the other side of the Durand Line and that will be one heck of a tumor to deal with.
Afghanistan was never a unified entity. Whenever people talk about Afghanistan the timeline usually goes as far back as to Soviet invasion. For current memory that was the first time Afghanistan played its role as a playground for superpowers to fight. All though only because of Saudi money and American ammunition that Afghans could defeat Soviets, the fact that they won’t budge even in the face of insurmountable odds is quite something. And it may sound harsh but that’s what they like. They like to fight. If not foreign invaders then they will fight with each other or they will invade others (historically, they would invade Delhi). All the talk them having rich culture is kind of mystifying because if war and violence can be defined as culture then they do come out on the top of ‘cultured’ nations.
Afghanistan –known as Gandhar in ancient time, was always considered as frontier post for India. You cross Afghanistan’s rugged terrain and you get passage to reach fertile plains of Ganges. Alexander came the same way and he all most succeeded. The Huns did the same thing all though they settled and got assimilated in the local population. Still Afghanistan was known for higher seat of education. Taxila university was one of the biggest university in the world. But it changed completed with advent of Islam.
The first recorded invasion of Muslim Arabs was in 712 A.D. All though the invaders reached Multan, they turned back after looting. Then it became a frontier for Muslim zealots in their quest to expand Dar-Ul-Islam i.e. Muslim dominion. The region bore the bloodiest brunt. The native population was decimated or converted. The entire infrastructure was destroyed and places of learning were burnt down. Gradually all that’s left was warring and blood thirsty people wanting to and waiting for next fight. What was interesting is that once a Sultanate established their grip on Delhi (there were a factory line of them) the goal would be stop invasion of another foreign invader from the gates of Afghanistan or to stop the invasion of Afghans itself. Mughal Empire’s fight to keep that area under control was largely unsuccessful. Except for the brief period of 1650’s and 1660’s, Mughals were draining their treasury as well as soldiers into abyss.
With the fall of Mughal empire there was brief period of peace in Afghanistan under Nadir Shah dynasty but then they wasted no time in invading India numerous times.
As world started coming under the spell of western imperialism the Afghanistan gradually lost its prominence as gateway to India. Still for British imperialist the threat of Russians descending down the plains of Indus and Ganges was real. And their would do anything to preserve the jewel of their empire. Afghanistan unsurprisingly again became a playground between British and Russian empire. British Empire wanly tried to subdue the lawless and unforgiving tracts. They quickly learned that it’s easy just to position the tribes against each other and maintain the relative inert state rather than to establish a state. We can say that this strategy was largely successful as the area was in relative peace. Post independence i.e. after Indian independence, Afghanistan came into existence, for the first time in last thousand years or so, as a sovereign nation. Still the tribal region along Durrand line, the line that haphazardly divides Afghanistan and Pakistan, was still autonomous.
It wasn’t meant to last for long. Soviet invasion shattered the peace for good, though this time the prize wasn’t India. Afghanistan was merely another country to be won by two warring super powers. Afghanistan paid dear price. By the time Russians depart the Afghanistan was completely destroyed. Million or so people were killed and again, what’s left was unemployed young and middle aged people with lots of guns and ammunition and nothing to do. More importantly the nation of Afghanistan seized to exist for all practical purpose. It wasn’t a surprise that another disaster was waiting to happen.
It was quite interesting to see how these gun-wielding blood–thirsty terrorist, just like their forefathers, again descended onto India creating havoc in the state of Kashmir. The real perpetrators were Pakistanis but the it was no-brainer that these deranged people will soon spread tentacles through out the globe. What no one thought was that the repercussion would felt violently in New York.
That brings us back to US – another superpower – trying or rather, struggling to make the sense of situation in Afghanistan. And unless they think outside the box, Afghanistan would keep draining resources for decades. We need to realize that the concept of Afghanistan as a Nation just can’t take roots in the rough terrain of Hindu-kush Mountains. The best strategy would simply be to divide the country into the ‘tribe-stan’. Given autonomy to all the tribes and let them leave their life as they please. The only think, and admittedly not easy thing to do, is to keep eye on the ammunition that's going in and out of these tribes. This is all easier said than done.Anyone dares to table this idea even for the sake of discussion will face huge uproar from everyone.
Unfortunately, this won't necessarily solve or stem the problem of terrorism. Because the real cancer lies on the other side of the Durand Line and that will be one heck of a tumor to deal with.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
la-la world of Rating Agencies
In recent credit crises one of the culprits that escaped scrutiny as well as public wrath was Rating Agency. Rating Agencies like S&P, Moody’s et al played most instrumental role in inflating the balloon and then realizing their mistake played pivotal role in bursting it. And yet no one seems to blame them for anything. In fact technically speaking, they are the sole culprit of the whole problem. We are blaming Wall Street bosses for their financial wizardry that ultimately consumed them, we are blaming investing funds for investing without due diligence. We are blaming mortgage companies for making predatory loans. And then the blame game shifts to which President should be blamed. But one thing’s is true that apart from the mortgage companies like New Century Finance neither investors nor Wall Street bosses did anything with criminal intent. Of course they don’t deserve any sympathy. But when you invest in a bond because it’s AAA and it turns out that the bond is actually less that BBB (i.e. below investing grade)and this discrepancy is because Rating Agency didn’t do their job well then who do you think should be blamed?
Let’s me try to paint little background for readers to see my argument easily.
Rating Agencies like S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch etc. are independent companies that rate anything and everything related to debt market. To rate means the probability of a borrower to return the money with interest and in given time. This way lender know how much risk they are taking and interest is charged based on the risk. Higher the probability of default i.e. borrower not returning money, higher the interest is charged. These agencies base their calculation on the publicly available data as well as by talking to the company bosses for better understanding of the company balance sheet. The calculations involve complex mathematical formulas coupled with equally complex statistics. They take into account years of data across the spectrum and then come up minimum standard that has a letter grades. And the companies satisfying these standards qualify for the grade. Rating Agencies have also increased their gamut by adding everything under the sky. They even rate sovereign nations, unsurprisingly applying different scales for different nations.
In 1970’s government of United States granted a special status NRSRO i.e. Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization- to certain rating agencies. Basically, government said that they trust these rating agencies for rating the debt market. Since then it became a rule for majority of mutual funds – the giants in the investing world – to buy the investment with certain minimum rating from these rating agencies. But the biggest use of Ratings is Risk Management division across the industry. Whether to invest or whether to lend depends on rating grade. With magic wand of ratings, risk management division decides or put restrictions on the business of lending or investing. Even if the rating criteria is internally developed, it still has to match or map it to the external rating grades i.e. NRSRO accredited ratings. And that’s precisely where trouble started. It was simply assumed that rating agencies know what to do and how to do their job. All though these rating agencies weren’t regulated or audited by government.
There is already a substantial argument against basing market behavior on rigid, one dimensional mathematical model. If history is the precursor then the one shouldn’t believe in such models at all. (LTCM, anyone?) As Prof. Taleb notes in his book ‘Black Swan’ in last century only ten days have had more trade than rest combined. And those ten days didn’t usher us into better world! In short humans behave rationally individually and stupidly in herds. But this argument is still raging and in absence of any worthy alternative markets will continue to rely on ratings and risk management models. So, stereotyping inherently irrational human behavior into math numbers wasn’t totally Rating Agencies fault. But giving rosy ratings to Structured debt and loans with shady origins was their fault.
One can discount such a blatant mismatch as a mistake but what’s interesting was the originators of the shady loans (originating, structuring and ultimately sale of debt is a long and complex process and will need a blog in itself to explain) used to pay fees to the rating agencies to find out how to make a low rated debt into high rated debt. In short, students after failing the test would go to t he teachers and pay them to get correct answers and re-submit the test again. The implication of such conflict of interest was felt through out the world as pension funds and mutual funds ended up buying such rigged investment blindly believing in the purity of the rating. And the Risk Management divisions, as mentioned earlier, based their ‘sound’ models on such ratings too. And as it became clear that the debt isn’t exactly of the high quality, the rating agencies decided to pull out the rug all at once. That was a double whammy because suddenly everyone is trying to sale such de-graded investments at once effectively accelerating credit crises. It’s rather banal to compare this scenario with pack of cards. Not that there weren’t fire alarms but they were conveniently forgotten. For example, the rating for WorldCom was BBB all most to the end when WorldCom filed for Bankruptcy then the biggest bankruptcy in US economic history. Same thing was repeated for Enron. Yet nothing happened and show went on.
And show will continue without even a blip this time too. The corrective measure is to actually challenge the existing notion of risk-management and free it from the clutches of morbid mathematical calculations. But that would be a long haul. In the mean time the sensible thing is to regulate the rating industry. Unfortunately, there aren’t any calls for that. They continue to remain de-facto kings in the investment world. With our money at their disposal they surely aren’t complaining!
Let’s me try to paint little background for readers to see my argument easily.
Rating Agencies like S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch etc. are independent companies that rate anything and everything related to debt market. To rate means the probability of a borrower to return the money with interest and in given time. This way lender know how much risk they are taking and interest is charged based on the risk. Higher the probability of default i.e. borrower not returning money, higher the interest is charged. These agencies base their calculation on the publicly available data as well as by talking to the company bosses for better understanding of the company balance sheet. The calculations involve complex mathematical formulas coupled with equally complex statistics. They take into account years of data across the spectrum and then come up minimum standard that has a letter grades. And the companies satisfying these standards qualify for the grade. Rating Agencies have also increased their gamut by adding everything under the sky. They even rate sovereign nations, unsurprisingly applying different scales for different nations.
In 1970’s government of United States granted a special status NRSRO i.e. Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization- to certain rating agencies. Basically, government said that they trust these rating agencies for rating the debt market. Since then it became a rule for majority of mutual funds – the giants in the investing world – to buy the investment with certain minimum rating from these rating agencies. But the biggest use of Ratings is Risk Management division across the industry. Whether to invest or whether to lend depends on rating grade. With magic wand of ratings, risk management division decides or put restrictions on the business of lending or investing. Even if the rating criteria is internally developed, it still has to match or map it to the external rating grades i.e. NRSRO accredited ratings. And that’s precisely where trouble started. It was simply assumed that rating agencies know what to do and how to do their job. All though these rating agencies weren’t regulated or audited by government.
There is already a substantial argument against basing market behavior on rigid, one dimensional mathematical model. If history is the precursor then the one shouldn’t believe in such models at all. (LTCM, anyone?) As Prof. Taleb notes in his book ‘Black Swan’ in last century only ten days have had more trade than rest combined. And those ten days didn’t usher us into better world! In short humans behave rationally individually and stupidly in herds. But this argument is still raging and in absence of any worthy alternative markets will continue to rely on ratings and risk management models. So, stereotyping inherently irrational human behavior into math numbers wasn’t totally Rating Agencies fault. But giving rosy ratings to Structured debt and loans with shady origins was their fault.
One can discount such a blatant mismatch as a mistake but what’s interesting was the originators of the shady loans (originating, structuring and ultimately sale of debt is a long and complex process and will need a blog in itself to explain) used to pay fees to the rating agencies to find out how to make a low rated debt into high rated debt. In short, students after failing the test would go to t he teachers and pay them to get correct answers and re-submit the test again. The implication of such conflict of interest was felt through out the world as pension funds and mutual funds ended up buying such rigged investment blindly believing in the purity of the rating. And the Risk Management divisions, as mentioned earlier, based their ‘sound’ models on such ratings too. And as it became clear that the debt isn’t exactly of the high quality, the rating agencies decided to pull out the rug all at once. That was a double whammy because suddenly everyone is trying to sale such de-graded investments at once effectively accelerating credit crises. It’s rather banal to compare this scenario with pack of cards. Not that there weren’t fire alarms but they were conveniently forgotten. For example, the rating for WorldCom was BBB all most to the end when WorldCom filed for Bankruptcy then the biggest bankruptcy in US economic history. Same thing was repeated for Enron. Yet nothing happened and show went on.
And show will continue without even a blip this time too. The corrective measure is to actually challenge the existing notion of risk-management and free it from the clutches of morbid mathematical calculations. But that would be a long haul. In the mean time the sensible thing is to regulate the rating industry. Unfortunately, there aren’t any calls for that. They continue to remain de-facto kings in the investment world. With our money at their disposal they surely aren’t complaining!
Friday, August 28, 2009
Shut the .....up!
Success has many fathers and failure has none. But in a very perverse manner a contradictory scene is developing on Indian political scene. BJP which lost the election seems to be taking new rabbits out of hat every other week, while Congress, which won the election, seems to be calm. Without usual drama they selected their cabinet ministry and started working as if there was never any election or as if it’s their right to be in the government. On the other hand the leadership in the BJP is crumbling under the pressure of defeat and its cadres are left without any sense of direction and purpose. Moreover, it is embarrassing to see way these ‘senior’ leaders are washing their dirty laundry in pubic. I am not saying there shouldn’t be disagreements but for the love of all that’s sweet on mother earth just shut the fuck up. First you got Uma Bharati then Yashwant Sinha, Murali Manohar Joshi and now Jaswant Singh and of all people, Arun Shourie! What the heck? What bit these intelligent people to run naked in public? I mean really, it’s just really uncool!
I always use to brag that BJP has deep leadership qualities amongst her ranks and file. And most of them are not corrupt and dedicated towards the goal. We had Mr. Vajapayee and Mr. Advani at the helm - two sages of Indian political scene. There is never any question about their integrity, honesty and devotion towards India. And since they have seen every possible up and down in India since independence, it’s just natural that they will usher India into new age of plural democracy and secular development. Then they had second defensive line of Jaswant Singh, Yashwant Sinha, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, Sikandar Bakhta et all. These folks were not exactly young but experienced, dedicated and for most purposes clean. And as if this was not enough they had third generation leadership emerging in Narendra Modi, Uma Bharati, Arun Jaitley, Sushama Swaraj and Pramod Mahajan. These folks not only had strong popular base (except for Arun Jaitley) but they were astute politicians who are also keenly aware of mood of emerging India. And then of course you have legendry foot soldiers of BJP who for most purposes graduated from RSS. These people were selfless, dedicated and motivated by higher cause.
Was this picture figment of (my) imagination or a mirage that BJP managed to create? Neither is true I guess because looking at BJP’s performance in last 20 years it is hard to believe that they would achieve all this without committed cadre base, sensible and intelligent mid-to-senior level and charismatic top rung. And BJP can’t create mirage of anything. That’s for sure. If they can then this is the best time to do that! So what happened? Where did they loose their common sense? What happened to all the discipline that RSS imparted? The fall has been so swift and so quick that it’s hard to fathom exactly when and where they lost all grey material?
The electoral defeat in 2004 general election was surely a shocker but the party did regroup and string of victories in state electoral (including establishing first government in South India) gave every indication that they are up for power in next general election. But it was not meant to be so. They did cling to their seats but the defeat was fatal. Congress swept through the polls and established themselves for another five years. Instead of introspecting senior members of the party started going berserk. Unless the party changes rank and file drastically, they are going down the drain pretty soon.
First of all, and it may seem extremely harsh, Mr. Advani needs to make a way. He is one of the greatest leaders and statesman that India has produced and surely one of the rarest breed who has capability to galvanize huge mass movements. Unfortunately though He is on wrong side of 80 and even if BJP wins the next general election, there is no way he could lead the nation. He not only loosing the control but it seems that he is completely dumbfounded to see his trusted lieutenants behaving in this manner. It will be sad to see him going in such circumstances. He certainly deserves a lot better. But fresh blood is extremely necessary at this juncture. If new leadership fails then at least they will fail after giving a fair shot. And no, Rajnath Singh can’t be his replacement! There are few choices apart from Narendra Modi. I think Sushama Swaraj fits the bill right now. She is intelligent and most importantly she has mass base.
Second, it is absolutely necessary for them to embrace Hindutva completely. It is the single factor that bought them to power. It was the reason they attracted educated middle class and it is the only viable ideology to attract poor to its fold. BJP, when ruling, showed how Hindutva seamlessly meshes up with development. So the Market and industries shouldn’t have any problems with Hindutva. On the social front though dilly-dallying with Hindutva has caused insurmountable damage. Glaring example is the sorry state of the party in Uttar Pradesh. They pretty much lost Delhi because of it. Uttar Pradesh is the most populace (I am including break-away states for this argument) state in India and has highest number of electorate votes. At one point BJP was winning more than 60 seats out of 89 and now they barely cross 10’s. It’s just pathetic.
Third, as mentioned earlier, they need to shut their mouth-holes. There is really no need to yap. They need to put their heads down and start working again. They have enough strength to win next general election. It’s just they need to stay as a united. If only they keep quite then they will hear the footsteps of inevitable doom. They need to be aware of this and should be scared.
And finally, I sincerely hope their next Prime Ministerial candidate is Narendra Modi. There is no alternative to him. They need to rally around him and he is the best hope at this point.
I always use to brag that BJP has deep leadership qualities amongst her ranks and file. And most of them are not corrupt and dedicated towards the goal. We had Mr. Vajapayee and Mr. Advani at the helm - two sages of Indian political scene. There is never any question about their integrity, honesty and devotion towards India. And since they have seen every possible up and down in India since independence, it’s just natural that they will usher India into new age of plural democracy and secular development. Then they had second defensive line of Jaswant Singh, Yashwant Sinha, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, Sikandar Bakhta et all. These folks were not exactly young but experienced, dedicated and for most purposes clean. And as if this was not enough they had third generation leadership emerging in Narendra Modi, Uma Bharati, Arun Jaitley, Sushama Swaraj and Pramod Mahajan. These folks not only had strong popular base (except for Arun Jaitley) but they were astute politicians who are also keenly aware of mood of emerging India. And then of course you have legendry foot soldiers of BJP who for most purposes graduated from RSS. These people were selfless, dedicated and motivated by higher cause.
Was this picture figment of (my) imagination or a mirage that BJP managed to create? Neither is true I guess because looking at BJP’s performance in last 20 years it is hard to believe that they would achieve all this without committed cadre base, sensible and intelligent mid-to-senior level and charismatic top rung. And BJP can’t create mirage of anything. That’s for sure. If they can then this is the best time to do that! So what happened? Where did they loose their common sense? What happened to all the discipline that RSS imparted? The fall has been so swift and so quick that it’s hard to fathom exactly when and where they lost all grey material?
The electoral defeat in 2004 general election was surely a shocker but the party did regroup and string of victories in state electoral (including establishing first government in South India) gave every indication that they are up for power in next general election. But it was not meant to be so. They did cling to their seats but the defeat was fatal. Congress swept through the polls and established themselves for another five years. Instead of introspecting senior members of the party started going berserk. Unless the party changes rank and file drastically, they are going down the drain pretty soon.
First of all, and it may seem extremely harsh, Mr. Advani needs to make a way. He is one of the greatest leaders and statesman that India has produced and surely one of the rarest breed who has capability to galvanize huge mass movements. Unfortunately though He is on wrong side of 80 and even if BJP wins the next general election, there is no way he could lead the nation. He not only loosing the control but it seems that he is completely dumbfounded to see his trusted lieutenants behaving in this manner. It will be sad to see him going in such circumstances. He certainly deserves a lot better. But fresh blood is extremely necessary at this juncture. If new leadership fails then at least they will fail after giving a fair shot. And no, Rajnath Singh can’t be his replacement! There are few choices apart from Narendra Modi. I think Sushama Swaraj fits the bill right now. She is intelligent and most importantly she has mass base.
Second, it is absolutely necessary for them to embrace Hindutva completely. It is the single factor that bought them to power. It was the reason they attracted educated middle class and it is the only viable ideology to attract poor to its fold. BJP, when ruling, showed how Hindutva seamlessly meshes up with development. So the Market and industries shouldn’t have any problems with Hindutva. On the social front though dilly-dallying with Hindutva has caused insurmountable damage. Glaring example is the sorry state of the party in Uttar Pradesh. They pretty much lost Delhi because of it. Uttar Pradesh is the most populace (I am including break-away states for this argument) state in India and has highest number of electorate votes. At one point BJP was winning more than 60 seats out of 89 and now they barely cross 10’s. It’s just pathetic.
Third, as mentioned earlier, they need to shut their mouth-holes. There is really no need to yap. They need to put their heads down and start working again. They have enough strength to win next general election. It’s just they need to stay as a united. If only they keep quite then they will hear the footsteps of inevitable doom. They need to be aware of this and should be scared.
And finally, I sincerely hope their next Prime Ministerial candidate is Narendra Modi. There is no alternative to him. They need to rally around him and he is the best hope at this point.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Hindutva and Youth
India has the fastest growing population of youth under 25. According to recent estimate more than 40% of Indian population falls in this bracket. So it’s just natural that they will be the one driving India’s future. As India increasingly embraces capitalistic ethos the consumption based culture will take deeper roots. I think this phenomenon, in particular, will provide biggest resistance to the spreading of Hindutva ideology. Forget about anti-Hindu media and Christian missionary supported national parties, the youth with insatiable thirst to buy newer cell phones, bikes and clothes may prove hardest to sell to the nationalistic concepts based on Hindutva.
At the same time the understanding about Hindutva philosophy is increasingly getting muddled because of activities that, in reality, has nothing to do with Hindutva. I think if we try to be true to the comment made by Supreme Court of India “The court came to the conclusion that the words "Hinduism" or "Hindutva" are not necessarily to be understood and construed narrowly, confined only to the strict Hindu religious practices unrelated to the culture and ethos of the People of India depicting the way of life of the Indian people” then we can attract more followers. The current youth population is nationalistic in every sense but their priorities have shifted drastically and we need to explain them the Hindutva in a language that they understand.
Sadly, the word Hindutva is usually associated with hooliganism. Shiv-Sena for example is known more about bashing parties and beating people on Valentine’s Day. The recent incident in Mangalore presents the whole concept in very poor light. I don’t think Hindutva is about not celebrating Valentine’s day or not going to pubs. I myself find Valentine’s Day etc. incredibly stupid but that doesn’t mean I have any right to resort to violent acts. Freedom of expression is paramount and should be protected at any cost.
Attacking MF Hussein’s paintings is a different scenario though. Because he offends the sentiments on purpose and law agencies or government doesn't take any action against him on purpose. If he paints paintings of Jesus Christ and Mother Mary in compromising positions or if he paints any picture of Allah then that's fine. His freedom to express his art should work both ways!
But such mundane stuff doesn't necessarily has anything to do with Hindutva either. Hindutva is a philosophy with wider spectrum. So, first, we need to distinguish between this kind of macho-Hindutva from real Hindutva.
The rise of capitalism, as mentioned in the beginning, is impossible to stop. . For the first in last couple of centuries Indians are finding opportunities to lift themselves out of poverty. And they are not going to stop for any ideological principal. Is Hindutva against Capitalism? I am not sure if it is related to any certain economic models. Any economic model as long as it benefits India and Indians is welcome. In current scenario, capitalistic economic model is proving boon to India (The situation may change in future but we should deal with it in future only)
I f, under the guise of Hindutva, organizations like Swadeshi moments attacks this model of economy then we are surely going to loose more base. Such ideology all though may sound legitimate to certain sections of the society should be dissociated from Hindutva.
Once we take out real Hindutva out of these incoherent and confusing acts done by organization related to Hindu politic then it will take spread for sure. Of course, that won't be it. But then we will be in a position to fight the real battle with staunchly anti-Hindu media and leftist academia.
At the same time the understanding about Hindutva philosophy is increasingly getting muddled because of activities that, in reality, has nothing to do with Hindutva. I think if we try to be true to the comment made by Supreme Court of India “The court came to the conclusion that the words "Hinduism" or "Hindutva" are not necessarily to be understood and construed narrowly, confined only to the strict Hindu religious practices unrelated to the culture and ethos of the People of India depicting the way of life of the Indian people” then we can attract more followers. The current youth population is nationalistic in every sense but their priorities have shifted drastically and we need to explain them the Hindutva in a language that they understand.
Sadly, the word Hindutva is usually associated with hooliganism. Shiv-Sena for example is known more about bashing parties and beating people on Valentine’s Day. The recent incident in Mangalore presents the whole concept in very poor light. I don’t think Hindutva is about not celebrating Valentine’s day or not going to pubs. I myself find Valentine’s Day etc. incredibly stupid but that doesn’t mean I have any right to resort to violent acts. Freedom of expression is paramount and should be protected at any cost.
Attacking MF Hussein’s paintings is a different scenario though. Because he offends the sentiments on purpose and law agencies or government doesn't take any action against him on purpose. If he paints paintings of Jesus Christ and Mother Mary in compromising positions or if he paints any picture of Allah then that's fine. His freedom to express his art should work both ways!
But such mundane stuff doesn't necessarily has anything to do with Hindutva either. Hindutva is a philosophy with wider spectrum. So, first, we need to distinguish between this kind of macho-Hindutva from real Hindutva.
The rise of capitalism, as mentioned in the beginning, is impossible to stop. . For the first in last couple of centuries Indians are finding opportunities to lift themselves out of poverty. And they are not going to stop for any ideological principal. Is Hindutva against Capitalism? I am not sure if it is related to any certain economic models. Any economic model as long as it benefits India and Indians is welcome. In current scenario, capitalistic economic model is proving boon to India (The situation may change in future but we should deal with it in future only)
I f, under the guise of Hindutva, organizations like Swadeshi moments attacks this model of economy then we are surely going to loose more base. Such ideology all though may sound legitimate to certain sections of the society should be dissociated from Hindutva.
Once we take out real Hindutva out of these incoherent and confusing acts done by organization related to Hindu politic then it will take spread for sure. Of course, that won't be it. But then we will be in a position to fight the real battle with staunchly anti-Hindu media and leftist academia.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Aftermath of Persian Elections
The fiasco in Iran seems to be finally over. I am not sure what and if it changed anything. We have an Islamic regime that barks at pretty much everyone. I must say that the regime probably does not reflect the general consensus in the country and that majority of the Persians do have sane mind. But anyone who denies existence of Holocaust must immediately be admitted to the mental asylum and arrested if that person is a head of the state. I can understand he wants to cater certain audience and he sincerely believes that his rants gives him certain aura but what he doesn’t realize is that his aura is aura of foolishness. But enough has been written about this madman.
The elections in Iran are different that how democratic elections that take place around the world. Persians do have right to vote and they do have candidates to choose from but the mandate can’t be used for quite a few matters related to the state and governance. For example, whether Persians believe that Israel should be wiped off the earth is irrelevant because the Revolutionary Guard - the powerful quasi-military institution in Iran, truly believes in ‘Zionist’ theory and that’s all it matters. The mandate of the people can be used only for intra-state governance. And even then the policies can’t step outside the gamut of Islamic principals.
The elected President then appoints whole bunch of officers through out the country increasing his strong hold over the bureaucracy. He is counseled by Revolutionary Guards as well as another of the religious council that sits between President’s arm of government and Revolutionary guard. And top of all this sits the Grand Ayatollah –the supreme leader, the ultimate arbitrary of all matters related to state. His words can not be doubted or his decisions can not be questioned. He sits above politics and yet he is heavily involved in all sorts of politics. He can dismiss anyone including the President. Like a King, he is not accountable to anything and to anyone. Though, the grand Ayatollah has not exercised his power frequently. At least, not visibly!
Whether Iran wants to hate US and UK is their choice. They don’t have to love western civilization nor do they need to embrace the western culture. If they want to be an Islamic republic and they should be an Islamic republic. Their grievances against UK and US are quite legitimate. Earlier in the days of Colonism and later under the guise of anti-Soviet build-up, these two western nations have messed up Persia quite unnecessarily. They were pawn for British Empire against Russian powerhouse and with the help of CIA, they overthrew democratically elected President in 1950’s. Later on they supported highly unpopular Shah Dynasty till 1979. But then whole of bunch of countries in the world were used and worse persecuted by British and American empires. Because that’s what Empires do. Similar case can be build against Turkish Empire or French colonial policies in Africa. Spanish empire! Anyone? The list is endless. But very few countries actually keep grieving. They rant, yes, but then they move on. They embrace capitalism whatever way is suitable and they try to attain progress. I think that’s where this proud civilization is slipping. And it is quite feasible that this frustration bubbled up through widespread protests.
At the same time we need to be little skeptical about the coverage in western media as well as relying on Facebook or Twitter. The protest seems to be or at least, recorded only in Tehran. The city’s the capital and metropolitan in every sense. And as is the case most of the world, the populace of big metros is usually more liberal. So, eruption of discontent in Tehran doesn’t mean folks in the other cities or in the countryside are sharing the same concern. But then, just to augment the contradiction further, protests in Tehran has been disruptive in the past. So, does recent protest has potential to herald Iran into another era of confusion and chaos? No one, including Persians themselves, knows the answer.
The protest was handled quite humanly if compared with such instances from the past. And in the face of strong warning, the protest fizzled out quietly. There seems to all most negligible use of force and very few people loosing lives. Of course, any loss of life is deplorable. But that’s how protest stuff works. The point is that Iranian rulers need to realize that they can enhance their own status and elevate their own country if they take this protest seriously. It’s absolutely retarded to keep blaming on western nations because even after the way this country is governed, if UK is still in the position to create mischief then all the Ayatollahs & Co. should resign in shame. The protest was genuine and they were peaceful. They simply wanted a recount, a legitimate request in any democratic institution. By calling them "dust" (who writes speeches for Ahmadinejad's?) or worse traitors is nothing but silly. Again they should not worry about what international media has to say. But to dismiss the huge protests on Tehran streets is showing cracks in the authoritative rule. The economy is still heavily based on Oil revenues and as oil prices has dropped like stone in the water in last couple of years, the macho attitude of the administration is not achieving anything. And when you are a supreme leader, you are not supposed to side with someone. And that's exactly Khamenie did. I think the protesters will be back in few years and that time it will be nastier than ever.
At the end of the day Persians are responsible of their own destiny. War-mongering, stupid brow-beating and constantly taking some ridiculous stand based on some ludicrous ideology is going to haunt the future of Iran for sure. World is moving on very rapidly and it's up to the folks in Iran to decide whether they want to part of the drama or just some loud bystanders.
The elections in Iran are different that how democratic elections that take place around the world. Persians do have right to vote and they do have candidates to choose from but the mandate can’t be used for quite a few matters related to the state and governance. For example, whether Persians believe that Israel should be wiped off the earth is irrelevant because the Revolutionary Guard - the powerful quasi-military institution in Iran, truly believes in ‘Zionist’ theory and that’s all it matters. The mandate of the people can be used only for intra-state governance. And even then the policies can’t step outside the gamut of Islamic principals.
The elected President then appoints whole bunch of officers through out the country increasing his strong hold over the bureaucracy. He is counseled by Revolutionary Guards as well as another of the religious council that sits between President’s arm of government and Revolutionary guard. And top of all this sits the Grand Ayatollah –the supreme leader, the ultimate arbitrary of all matters related to state. His words can not be doubted or his decisions can not be questioned. He sits above politics and yet he is heavily involved in all sorts of politics. He can dismiss anyone including the President. Like a King, he is not accountable to anything and to anyone. Though, the grand Ayatollah has not exercised his power frequently. At least, not visibly!
Whether Iran wants to hate US and UK is their choice. They don’t have to love western civilization nor do they need to embrace the western culture. If they want to be an Islamic republic and they should be an Islamic republic. Their grievances against UK and US are quite legitimate. Earlier in the days of Colonism and later under the guise of anti-Soviet build-up, these two western nations have messed up Persia quite unnecessarily. They were pawn for British Empire against Russian powerhouse and with the help of CIA, they overthrew democratically elected President in 1950’s. Later on they supported highly unpopular Shah Dynasty till 1979. But then whole of bunch of countries in the world were used and worse persecuted by British and American empires. Because that’s what Empires do. Similar case can be build against Turkish Empire or French colonial policies in Africa. Spanish empire! Anyone? The list is endless. But very few countries actually keep grieving. They rant, yes, but then they move on. They embrace capitalism whatever way is suitable and they try to attain progress. I think that’s where this proud civilization is slipping. And it is quite feasible that this frustration bubbled up through widespread protests.
At the same time we need to be little skeptical about the coverage in western media as well as relying on Facebook or Twitter. The protest seems to be or at least, recorded only in Tehran. The city’s the capital and metropolitan in every sense. And as is the case most of the world, the populace of big metros is usually more liberal. So, eruption of discontent in Tehran doesn’t mean folks in the other cities or in the countryside are sharing the same concern. But then, just to augment the contradiction further, protests in Tehran has been disruptive in the past. So, does recent protest has potential to herald Iran into another era of confusion and chaos? No one, including Persians themselves, knows the answer.
The protest was handled quite humanly if compared with such instances from the past. And in the face of strong warning, the protest fizzled out quietly. There seems to all most negligible use of force and very few people loosing lives. Of course, any loss of life is deplorable. But that’s how protest stuff works. The point is that Iranian rulers need to realize that they can enhance their own status and elevate their own country if they take this protest seriously. It’s absolutely retarded to keep blaming on western nations because even after the way this country is governed, if UK is still in the position to create mischief then all the Ayatollahs & Co. should resign in shame. The protest was genuine and they were peaceful. They simply wanted a recount, a legitimate request in any democratic institution. By calling them "dust" (who writes speeches for Ahmadinejad's?) or worse traitors is nothing but silly. Again they should not worry about what international media has to say. But to dismiss the huge protests on Tehran streets is showing cracks in the authoritative rule. The economy is still heavily based on Oil revenues and as oil prices has dropped like stone in the water in last couple of years, the macho attitude of the administration is not achieving anything. And when you are a supreme leader, you are not supposed to side with someone. And that's exactly Khamenie did. I think the protesters will be back in few years and that time it will be nastier than ever.
At the end of the day Persians are responsible of their own destiny. War-mongering, stupid brow-beating and constantly taking some ridiculous stand based on some ludicrous ideology is going to haunt the future of Iran for sure. World is moving on very rapidly and it's up to the folks in Iran to decide whether they want to part of the drama or just some loud bystanders.
Friday, June 05, 2009
The Tank Man
Since last week New York Times is buzzing 20th anniversary of Tienanmen Square massacre. Various articles, photographs and old reports were getting published trying to shed more light on that tragic event. But any new material is so scarce thanks to absolutely tight control over this incidence by Chinese government that basic questions like how many people were killed and what happened to the ones who were caught are still largely unanswered. If it were the western world, scores of books would have been published by now along with handful of movies. Few universities would have tried to set-up a Chair on this incidence too. It’s a different matter that excessive attention paid in western world even on minute incidence usually ends up muddling the water same as excessive crackdown on any dissent that Chinese government enforces.
Coming back to the topic, I was thinking about the photo that encapsulated the whole event. A lone guy in white shirt with some sort of shopping bag in his hand standing firmly and calmly in front of fleet of tanks. The road, bereft of any life, looks ominous with only tanks moving certain direction, most probably towards the protesters. In one of the recent reports it is mentioned that soldiers were firing indiscriminately from the tanks but it is hard to see any soldiers on the tanks. Amidst this firing and people scurrying around for cover, our hero, the “Tank Man” as popularly known now, is standing serenely ready to welcome the fleet of tanks. It makes me wonder, philosophies, what must be going through his mind at that time. His action doesn’t seem like taken in haste. In one of most recent photograph taken from another angle, published in New York Times, there is a considerable distance between where he took his last stand and the approaching tanks. Basically, he had time to run away. He had time to think to about his future, which obviously was quite bleak at that point. He had time convince himself to run. But he didn’t! What prompted him to be so valiant? Did he believe his act would spare lives of innocents by stopping the menacing march of tanks towards the protesters?
We would probably never know.
The fact that Chinese decided to turn on military grade tanks on their own citizens confirms the magnitude of the protest and uneasiness of the government. Would they really stop for a lone guy with shopping bags in his hands? Or rather, stopped by a lone guy with shopping bags in his hands? They didn’t and rest is history. No one knows the fate of ‘tank man’. Some think he survived and still living in China. I highly doubt that. I mean we have an authoritarian government that hangs even juvenile convicts and it would be totally out of character for them to spare his life, specially, after killing thousands of his protesters comrades with ease. After such a gruesome slaughter killing the tank man would be merely adding to statistics.
The unfathomable courage he showed is so exceptional and surprising that majority would call him a mad-man. These cynics will further point out that his protest didn’t stop the carnage. True, but he showed us the power to take a stand. Whether it changes the reality is for later part. The most important thing is to act. He didn’t care if anyone was following him or not. He didn’t care about the consequences. He didn’t make any speeches or grandiose statements nor did he write any books. There is no way that anyone could stand up against military tanks and bullets. And yet he decided to show his strength by standing in front of them. He didn’t attack those tanks with grenades. He didn’t attack them at all. He just wanted to stop them. Perhaps, he thought that he can reason with the military personnel in the tanks because he did climb on the tank looking for someone to talk to and you can all most feel that he wanted them the tank operator to think about consequence of their act. What ever may be the reason; his act was in sheer desperation he showcased the enduring spirit of humans to fight for others; to look beyond individual interest and stand up for greater cause.
Somehow I believe he didn’t think this profoundly at all. Because one, there was probably no time to do so. But moreover, thinking so much can diminish the resolve. His act was instinctive but resolute. In any case when you are facing your death through barrel of the tank or in the bed, the only thing that remains is the debate with your soul.. You are answerable to your own self. Did you do what you were supposed to do? Are you satisfied with your actions? Were you true to your conscious? He had satisfactory answers for himself and with tank gun pointed at him, he set himself free.
Coming back to the topic, I was thinking about the photo that encapsulated the whole event. A lone guy in white shirt with some sort of shopping bag in his hand standing firmly and calmly in front of fleet of tanks. The road, bereft of any life, looks ominous with only tanks moving certain direction, most probably towards the protesters. In one of the recent reports it is mentioned that soldiers were firing indiscriminately from the tanks but it is hard to see any soldiers on the tanks. Amidst this firing and people scurrying around for cover, our hero, the “Tank Man” as popularly known now, is standing serenely ready to welcome the fleet of tanks. It makes me wonder, philosophies, what must be going through his mind at that time. His action doesn’t seem like taken in haste. In one of most recent photograph taken from another angle, published in New York Times, there is a considerable distance between where he took his last stand and the approaching tanks. Basically, he had time to run away. He had time to think to about his future, which obviously was quite bleak at that point. He had time convince himself to run. But he didn’t! What prompted him to be so valiant? Did he believe his act would spare lives of innocents by stopping the menacing march of tanks towards the protesters?
We would probably never know.
The fact that Chinese decided to turn on military grade tanks on their own citizens confirms the magnitude of the protest and uneasiness of the government. Would they really stop for a lone guy with shopping bags in his hands? Or rather, stopped by a lone guy with shopping bags in his hands? They didn’t and rest is history. No one knows the fate of ‘tank man’. Some think he survived and still living in China. I highly doubt that. I mean we have an authoritarian government that hangs even juvenile convicts and it would be totally out of character for them to spare his life, specially, after killing thousands of his protesters comrades with ease. After such a gruesome slaughter killing the tank man would be merely adding to statistics.
The unfathomable courage he showed is so exceptional and surprising that majority would call him a mad-man. These cynics will further point out that his protest didn’t stop the carnage. True, but he showed us the power to take a stand. Whether it changes the reality is for later part. The most important thing is to act. He didn’t care if anyone was following him or not. He didn’t care about the consequences. He didn’t make any speeches or grandiose statements nor did he write any books. There is no way that anyone could stand up against military tanks and bullets. And yet he decided to show his strength by standing in front of them. He didn’t attack those tanks with grenades. He didn’t attack them at all. He just wanted to stop them. Perhaps, he thought that he can reason with the military personnel in the tanks because he did climb on the tank looking for someone to talk to and you can all most feel that he wanted them the tank operator to think about consequence of their act. What ever may be the reason; his act was in sheer desperation he showcased the enduring spirit of humans to fight for others; to look beyond individual interest and stand up for greater cause.
Somehow I believe he didn’t think this profoundly at all. Because one, there was probably no time to do so. But moreover, thinking so much can diminish the resolve. His act was instinctive but resolute. In any case when you are facing your death through barrel of the tank or in the bed, the only thing that remains is the debate with your soul.. You are answerable to your own self. Did you do what you were supposed to do? Are you satisfied with your actions? Were you true to your conscious? He had satisfactory answers for himself and with tank gun pointed at him, he set himself free.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Surprise, Surprise!
I haven’t blogged in all most a month. Such a long break is first of its kind. I wasn’t busy per se but I couldn’t write anything. There were quite a few things to write about but it felt like there is no point in writing. What’s going to change? Nothing! I don’t claim to be influential writer that well, influences people. No, it’s not about that. The question that kills me is that if a person of average intellect (which is me!) can see these issues so clearly then how on earth we as a nation fail to act on it? Does that mean majority in our nation have below par intelligence? I don’t think so. Then how on earth Congress can win this election so comfortably? I mean, it was a fair election. They had a plan and people voted for that plan. In short Congress party won an election legitimately. Congratulations to them. But they didn’t win on a successful five year term. I don’t know how they won but if their track record in last five years is of any indication then we are in for tough ride for sure.
Our nation has been constantly attacked by terrorists in last few years. None of the culprits were bought to justice. These terrorists grew so audacious that they bough the one of the biggest cities in the world to stand still and merrily killed 200 innocent people and fired thousands and thousands of bullets without any hindrance. And yet, nothing! Literally, nothing moved. Apart from this mayhem in Mumbai, we had several bomb blasts across the nation, from Guwahati to Bengalluru and from Jaipur to Hyderabad. All though the modus operandi was eerily similar, it seems the problem of catching the culprits has more to do with political will than simple law enforcement.
It’s often said that votes are decided by rather simpler demands like roti, kapada and makaan. I agree to that but even on that front the earlier government failed miserably. The inflation has skyrocketed with no end in sight. All though government figure steadfastly maintains that inflation rise is around 3 to 4%. To see the prices of lentils, rice, eggs and milk makes you wonder if consumer is mad. In the article published in Indian Express the author has conclusively proved that inflation rate has been 7 to 8% in urban and all most touching 10% in rural areas. That’s a staggering rise by any standards. This prices has been challenged both of rapid increase in demand and supply side inability to keep up with the demand. The second of this equation government is supposed to take care of. Instead, disinvestment has come to stand-still. The infrastructure has taken the back seat and red-tape hasn’t budged at all. I can understand that these age-old problems won’t be solved in one term but my concern is that the earlier government refused to take any steps towards modernization at all. This is particularly a sad picture considering our Prime Minister is hailed as a hero for his tenure as a finance minister in 1990’s.
The fiasco of another round of Reservation policy is long forgotten. The putrid character of Arjun Singh is still well placed in the government. After messing up another young generation he seems to be content person now. There was so much hoopla at that time that it wouldn’t surprise anyone if young generations boot out this government. Well, surprising it was that they actually voted in this government. As the saying goes “Khuda bachaaye”
And then there were foreign policy blunders like loosing Nepal to the communists. All though our foreign policy did great work in isolating Pakistan in the international community. But we will come to the foreign policy part in a separate blog.
These are some of the major points I would think of before casting my vote. Obviously it didn’t happen with majority of the people. I don’t know why. I am not saying BJP was the only choice and people should have voted only BJP but my contention is that folks aren’t thinking before voting. This is not a democracy we are striving for. Vote is not just a right but it’s a responsibility. The responsibility is to think and work for the betterment of the society and for the progress of the nation. It’s a heavy burden and should be treated with respect. In democracy we are supposed to ask questions to the politicians. They work for us. We are the rulers and they are serving us. If we are constantly getting attacked by terrorists then power is in our hands to protect and retaliate. If the food prices are sky rocketing then we are responsible for bringing them down. And easiest way to do that is to vote with responsibility.
If this election is heralding the age of two national parties tussling over power then that’s a welcome relief. However corrupt and incompetent Congress Party is, they are much better than likes of Paswan, Mulayam and Laloos. The other silver lining of this election was decline of Communists. Folks like Communist Party should be out rightly banned from India. Not only that they are corrupt, counter-productive parasites but they are anti-national too. Communists Party of India works more for China than for India. At least now they will be confined only to Bengal rather than wracking havoc in Delhi.
We will evaluate BJP’s future in next blog.
Our nation has been constantly attacked by terrorists in last few years. None of the culprits were bought to justice. These terrorists grew so audacious that they bough the one of the biggest cities in the world to stand still and merrily killed 200 innocent people and fired thousands and thousands of bullets without any hindrance. And yet, nothing! Literally, nothing moved. Apart from this mayhem in Mumbai, we had several bomb blasts across the nation, from Guwahati to Bengalluru and from Jaipur to Hyderabad. All though the modus operandi was eerily similar, it seems the problem of catching the culprits has more to do with political will than simple law enforcement.
It’s often said that votes are decided by rather simpler demands like roti, kapada and makaan. I agree to that but even on that front the earlier government failed miserably. The inflation has skyrocketed with no end in sight. All though government figure steadfastly maintains that inflation rise is around 3 to 4%. To see the prices of lentils, rice, eggs and milk makes you wonder if consumer is mad. In the article published in Indian Express the author has conclusively proved that inflation rate has been 7 to 8% in urban and all most touching 10% in rural areas. That’s a staggering rise by any standards. This prices has been challenged both of rapid increase in demand and supply side inability to keep up with the demand. The second of this equation government is supposed to take care of. Instead, disinvestment has come to stand-still. The infrastructure has taken the back seat and red-tape hasn’t budged at all. I can understand that these age-old problems won’t be solved in one term but my concern is that the earlier government refused to take any steps towards modernization at all. This is particularly a sad picture considering our Prime Minister is hailed as a hero for his tenure as a finance minister in 1990’s.
The fiasco of another round of Reservation policy is long forgotten. The putrid character of Arjun Singh is still well placed in the government. After messing up another young generation he seems to be content person now. There was so much hoopla at that time that it wouldn’t surprise anyone if young generations boot out this government. Well, surprising it was that they actually voted in this government. As the saying goes “Khuda bachaaye”
And then there were foreign policy blunders like loosing Nepal to the communists. All though our foreign policy did great work in isolating Pakistan in the international community. But we will come to the foreign policy part in a separate blog.
These are some of the major points I would think of before casting my vote. Obviously it didn’t happen with majority of the people. I don’t know why. I am not saying BJP was the only choice and people should have voted only BJP but my contention is that folks aren’t thinking before voting. This is not a democracy we are striving for. Vote is not just a right but it’s a responsibility. The responsibility is to think and work for the betterment of the society and for the progress of the nation. It’s a heavy burden and should be treated with respect. In democracy we are supposed to ask questions to the politicians. They work for us. We are the rulers and they are serving us. If we are constantly getting attacked by terrorists then power is in our hands to protect and retaliate. If the food prices are sky rocketing then we are responsible for bringing them down. And easiest way to do that is to vote with responsibility.
If this election is heralding the age of two national parties tussling over power then that’s a welcome relief. However corrupt and incompetent Congress Party is, they are much better than likes of Paswan, Mulayam and Laloos. The other silver lining of this election was decline of Communists. Folks like Communist Party should be out rightly banned from India. Not only that they are corrupt, counter-productive parasites but they are anti-national too. Communists Party of India works more for China than for India. At least now they will be confined only to Bengal rather than wracking havoc in Delhi.
We will evaluate BJP’s future in next blog.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
We The Election!
The general elections are round the corner and the consensus seems to be that anyone can come to the power. And that is of course very scary indeed. If third front comes to the power then we will have hodge-podge of parties that are hell bent on making as much money as possible as quick as possible and the results will be disastrous. Remember the period of 1996 to 1998? Nothing got done and we were in real danger of getting Mulayam Singh Yadav or Laloo Prasaad Yadav as our prime minister. Well, those ghastly nightmares are back. We may get them as our prime minister and the chaos will ensue. Muslim appeasement will peak out. Reservations will be doled out like Prasad in the temples. Private investment will dry out and infrastructure development will come to the grinding halt. Foreign policy initiatives will cease to exist and Economic policies will be shunted out and replaced with communist agenda. And we will be staring at the elections within next couple of years. But that’s not it. If any of those dangerous clowns get elected then that will be smack slap on the face of democracy. None of these parties have ability to win outside their base state. The maximum seats they can win don’t go beyond 20’s and yet they are close on becoming Prime-Minister of the country.
Now if Congress party comes to the power then sadly, we will be back to the square one. We will have a Prime Minister who have no say in anything. He doesn’t show backbone of any sort and refuses to be proactive in anything. Our country will get attacked again by the terrorists as well as by Naxals. Our foreign policy will be non-existent again. We will get into peace dialogue with Pakistan and will be attacked again by them in return. We will ask them to hand over the terrorists and they will refuse to do so in return. Months will pass and our moronic society will forget about those attacks and then we will have peace dialogue again. The inflation is through roofs and yet our finance minister who is also our home minister thinks that this is a good sign. He keeps babbling about strong fundamentals of our economy. Somehow he doesn’t see that the grain prices are getting so exorbitant that soon poor people won’t be able to afford daal-chawal.
The third possibility is that BJP wins the election and comes to the power with support from it allies. I would certainly prefer BJP coming to the power. Amongst the political masses BJP politicians at least get things done. Once upon a time, not so long ago to be honest, BJP had powerful second rung leadership. We had Arun Jaitley, Sushama Swaraj, Narendra Modi, Pramod Mahajan, Rajnath Singh. They were competent, non-corrupt for most purposes and nationalist to the core. All of them (except for Pramod Mahajan who died couple of years ago) are still in the BJP but something’s not right. As much as I respect L. K. Advani, let’s be honest here, why BJP is projecting him as a Prime-Minstrel candidate when he will be 81 soon? Why not break the tradition of giving post to the eldest and present rather younger age. It’s true that most of the ‘young’ Turks are above 50 but that means they are ripe with experience, an absolute necessity in Indian politics, and yet young enough to lead our nation for sustained period of time. But internal feuds in the party are well documented denting the image of the party as party of differences instead of a different party.
Historically, the elections in India are decided by very basic issues like employment, price rise and lack of basic amenities. The rise of regional parties should be attributed to the fact that they know how to play with people’s sentiments in this regard. But we are currently dealing with catch-22 situation. Regional parties scarcely think beyond their state boundaries. In fact they actively work against projects or necessary decisions that may affect their state in short term but help nation in longer term. Moreover they lack the vision necessary to develop the whole nation. That in turn complicates an already tough task of providing basic necessities to the common, which in turn (too many turns!!) increases the appeal for regional parties. I am not sure how and when we will come out of it. Perhaps when people finally start identifying themselves with nation they will start voting for the overall development rather than roti-kapada aur makaan Road to that destination is treacherous and onerous.
Now if Congress party comes to the power then sadly, we will be back to the square one. We will have a Prime Minister who have no say in anything. He doesn’t show backbone of any sort and refuses to be proactive in anything. Our country will get attacked again by the terrorists as well as by Naxals. Our foreign policy will be non-existent again. We will get into peace dialogue with Pakistan and will be attacked again by them in return. We will ask them to hand over the terrorists and they will refuse to do so in return. Months will pass and our moronic society will forget about those attacks and then we will have peace dialogue again. The inflation is through roofs and yet our finance minister who is also our home minister thinks that this is a good sign. He keeps babbling about strong fundamentals of our economy. Somehow he doesn’t see that the grain prices are getting so exorbitant that soon poor people won’t be able to afford daal-chawal.
The third possibility is that BJP wins the election and comes to the power with support from it allies. I would certainly prefer BJP coming to the power. Amongst the political masses BJP politicians at least get things done. Once upon a time, not so long ago to be honest, BJP had powerful second rung leadership. We had Arun Jaitley, Sushama Swaraj, Narendra Modi, Pramod Mahajan, Rajnath Singh. They were competent, non-corrupt for most purposes and nationalist to the core. All of them (except for Pramod Mahajan who died couple of years ago) are still in the BJP but something’s not right. As much as I respect L. K. Advani, let’s be honest here, why BJP is projecting him as a Prime-Minstrel candidate when he will be 81 soon? Why not break the tradition of giving post to the eldest and present rather younger age. It’s true that most of the ‘young’ Turks are above 50 but that means they are ripe with experience, an absolute necessity in Indian politics, and yet young enough to lead our nation for sustained period of time. But internal feuds in the party are well documented denting the image of the party as party of differences instead of a different party.
Historically, the elections in India are decided by very basic issues like employment, price rise and lack of basic amenities. The rise of regional parties should be attributed to the fact that they know how to play with people’s sentiments in this regard. But we are currently dealing with catch-22 situation. Regional parties scarcely think beyond their state boundaries. In fact they actively work against projects or necessary decisions that may affect their state in short term but help nation in longer term. Moreover they lack the vision necessary to develop the whole nation. That in turn complicates an already tough task of providing basic necessities to the common, which in turn (too many turns!!) increases the appeal for regional parties. I am not sure how and when we will come out of it. Perhaps when people finally start identifying themselves with nation they will start voting for the overall development rather than roti-kapada aur makaan Road to that destination is treacherous and onerous.
Monday, March 30, 2009
The American Culprit
The AIG controversy gave slimmer of hope to American population to finally lay blame of current credit crises on someone. Alas, the pop fizzled out so quickly that the joy of revenge didn’t last long. Traders based in US returned their money and traders based in Europe didn’t even bother to take notice of this hoopla. After spending or rather printing, literally, two trillion dollars, getting $80 million back into government coffers was like dark comedy. But it shows the lack of understanding regarding current crises amongst the masses. Worse it shows how US government is running out of any better ideas to pull economy out of trouble. The current debacle in the financial market not only shook the very foundation of financial hegemony of US over rest of the world but it dealt severe blow to the American swagger that they are pioneers of finance wizardry.
It’s easy to blame the whole trouble on few people on Wall Street. They were greedy and they did stupid stuff. But technically speaking none of that was illegal. Unlike in Enron- where the top management was deeply embroiled in cooking books- here, the whole credit cycle process as well as Securitization processes was absolutely legal. Now whether that structure was sustainable or not is a different question. (It wasn’t!) That makes average Joe (common man in US lingo!) is confused that if he is loosing his pension plan and on the verge of loosing his job then how come the techniques that brought down the house is legal? The answer is not that simple. The game has been going on for long time and our average Joe inadvertently ended up playing a major role.
The American economy has been reshaped into a consumer based behemoth that gobbles everything and anything produced around the globe. The insatiable demand wasn’t fueled by higher earnings but rather illusion of earnings. People were borrowing heavily for everything. Right from the clothes to house everything was paid by credit. The credit cards were thrown at people like fliers. The houses were made available to everyone. And all though availability of resources and luxuries to everyone is a noble goal, the bitter truth is that the responsibility was bartered for greed. The saving rate was in negative – a fact lawmakers as well as general populace should be worried about. But not in this land of free! The definition of freedom was twisted in such an ugly manner that government in fact supported this binge consumption on borrowed money. And, why not, the government itself was borrowing money from foreign countries by selling debt to them. The chief of Federal Reserve was spreading the euphoria by telling everyone that this kind of debt restructuring (including securitization) is heralding new age of prosperity to American life. The first part was indeed true, the second, not so much! People borrowed more money by putting their houses as collateral. ‘Flipping’ houses became rage. Folks with no knowledge of financial juggernaut behind housing market or for that matter housing market itself bought houses after houses. In the initial years huge profits were made. But the simple rule of supply and demand is like gravity. It always catches up with you and brings you down. Usually with the loud thud!
The juggernaut didn’t just stop there. Financial firms got into the business they didn’t understand either. Creating securitization business, selling CDO’s, CDO’s of CDO’s, tranching, slicing, creating SPE and then buying insurance to find solace went on for really long time. With limited number of players in the market (both in terms of buyers and sellers) they effectively traded with each other creating a manor of cards. The house was meant to come down.
In short it’s all most impossible to pin-point a culprit. If Americans want to know who is the culprit then they need to stand in front of mirror and open their eyes. The reflection ain’t that pretty!
It’s easy to blame the whole trouble on few people on Wall Street. They were greedy and they did stupid stuff. But technically speaking none of that was illegal. Unlike in Enron- where the top management was deeply embroiled in cooking books- here, the whole credit cycle process as well as Securitization processes was absolutely legal. Now whether that structure was sustainable or not is a different question. (It wasn’t!) That makes average Joe (common man in US lingo!) is confused that if he is loosing his pension plan and on the verge of loosing his job then how come the techniques that brought down the house is legal? The answer is not that simple. The game has been going on for long time and our average Joe inadvertently ended up playing a major role.
The American economy has been reshaped into a consumer based behemoth that gobbles everything and anything produced around the globe. The insatiable demand wasn’t fueled by higher earnings but rather illusion of earnings. People were borrowing heavily for everything. Right from the clothes to house everything was paid by credit. The credit cards were thrown at people like fliers. The houses were made available to everyone. And all though availability of resources and luxuries to everyone is a noble goal, the bitter truth is that the responsibility was bartered for greed. The saving rate was in negative – a fact lawmakers as well as general populace should be worried about. But not in this land of free! The definition of freedom was twisted in such an ugly manner that government in fact supported this binge consumption on borrowed money. And, why not, the government itself was borrowing money from foreign countries by selling debt to them. The chief of Federal Reserve was spreading the euphoria by telling everyone that this kind of debt restructuring (including securitization) is heralding new age of prosperity to American life. The first part was indeed true, the second, not so much! People borrowed more money by putting their houses as collateral. ‘Flipping’ houses became rage. Folks with no knowledge of financial juggernaut behind housing market or for that matter housing market itself bought houses after houses. In the initial years huge profits were made. But the simple rule of supply and demand is like gravity. It always catches up with you and brings you down. Usually with the loud thud!
The juggernaut didn’t just stop there. Financial firms got into the business they didn’t understand either. Creating securitization business, selling CDO’s, CDO’s of CDO’s, tranching, slicing, creating SPE and then buying insurance to find solace went on for really long time. With limited number of players in the market (both in terms of buyers and sellers) they effectively traded with each other creating a manor of cards. The house was meant to come down.
In short it’s all most impossible to pin-point a culprit. If Americans want to know who is the culprit then they need to stand in front of mirror and open their eyes. The reflection ain’t that pretty!
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