The recent Lok Sabha election results, a seismic shock to the system, have potential of significantly reshaping the political landscape. The unexpected surge of the Opposition block, a clear sign of shifting power dynamics, and the surprise blow to the ruling BJP in UP were outcomes that most of the general public and poll pundits did not see coming. However, I would argue that these are not bad results for anyone. Very rarely, political strategies, rivalries, and brinkmanship create win-win situations. And the 2024 Lok Sabha elections come quite close to that.
Before I proceed, let me get a few things straight. BJP should have won absolute majority. The party and honorable Prime Minster have worked tirelessly to develop our nation, so general voters should have reposed their absolute faith in them. The opposition block, especially the Congress Party, winning so many seats is not good news for our country. Some may argue that it is suitable for democracy, etc., which may be true in an ideal world. The reality is that the ideologies that these opposition parties espouse are dangerous to the future of our country. The country does need to defeat the inane, counter-productive, and borderline anti-national, myopic ideologies of the Opposition. For this purpose, the BJP is the sole option available to us as a nation.
Winning three consecutive times in anything is extremely hard. Winning Lok Sabha elections thrice in India is rare as finding another Kohinoor diamond. Only Shri Jawaharlal Nehru has won three times in a row. But India's population in 1962 was little more than a third of where it currently stands. And Shri Nehru was still basking in the glory of independence struggle movement. Shri Modi had none of these advantages. Coming from a humble background and Modi ji, for a decade, has managed the population of 140 crores well. Him winning third time is a lot more commendable than Shri Nehru's hattrick.
The general consensus in the country was BJP will absolute majority easily. That did not happen. What are some of the critical reasons Modi ji and BJP lost out (by a whisker) the majority mark? The reasons for this, including the role of Hindutva and anti-incumbency, are crucial to understanding the election dynamics.
Hindutva does not win a majority - Rewind a bit to January of 2024. Shri Ram mandir was recently inaugurated. Modi ji and BJP were basking in the glory of completing one of their stated goals of building a grand temple in Ayodhya. The enthusiasm was high across the country. Even the voters who wouldn't vote for BJP were happy to see the temple. Alas, that alone does not mean voters will elect the BJP again. If that was the case, wouldn't the BJP have won grandly back in 1991? Hindutva works only up to an extent. Hindu voter bank is divided across caste lines, that's one. But Hindu voters do not get swayed by religious fervor, unlike the Muslim vote bank. Hindu vote banks need what they need from the political parties and the ruling dispensation. Religion can be taken care of later or privately. Caste dynamics, development, low inflation, higher growth and Hindutva is the combination that is required, and in that combination. It is very tough to get all of the above factors correctly.
Anti-incumbency: Governing a vast nation like India is bound to create negative perceptions in different pockets despite best intentions. And it is also a good sign for a democratic framework that voters are keeping a tight leash on potential dictators to rise. We have experienced Indira Gandhi as a dictator, which was not pretty. Despite the best intentions and best possible implementation of a host of economic policies by the Modi government, India's economy is too big and complex to manage. There will be some social strata left in disadvantageous situations. For example, the GST has been a game changer but has adversely impacted inflation. Despite interim COVID years, the fiscal deficit has been steady because of the constant rise in tax collection (among other factors!). However, taxpayers feel extreme heat of high tax brackets and double or triple taxation. All such factors do play a crucial role in impacting election results. It is noteworthy that despite a decade-long rule, BJP's vote share has been rock solid.
Hubris: Like anti-incumbency, hubris set in is also bound to happen. Anyone or any political organization that has been ruling for a long time believes in a certain way to win. These 'certain ways' obviously worked in the past but may need change, and that change is either missed or resisted. A classic example is the BJP absorbing scores of 'leaders' from opposition parties and giving them contesting tickets. This strategy ruffled feathers in party cadres and leaders who have been toiling for decades. But more than that, how effective is this short- and long-term strategy? It is evident that in the last two elections, people may not have vetted their local candidate since they just wanted to get Shri Modi elected. But what was the likelihood the same voting pattern would continue?
Similarly, breaking opposition parties and forming alliances with the breakaway factions was another strategy that backfired spectacularly, especially in Maharashtra. Shri Modi's popularity has not waned even a bit, but people are looking for a change in style and functioning. Voters, especially the loyal BJP voters, are looking for a change in political strategies. I am sure we will see the change soon.
As I mentioned earlier, the BJP's vote share has not changed. Despite taking severe blows in Maharashtra (expected) and UP (unexpected), they gained quite a bit in TN, Kerala, Telangana, and Odisha. The party has truly become a pan-India party. And that's an outstanding achievement in itself. The cadre remains strong and committed, and electoral fortunes by each state (except for Maharashtra) remain bright. The party has stayed true to its identity and has achieved quite a bit from its manifesto. All these are pointing towards a strong future, but the future is not without its uncertainties.
Now, all they need to do is stay clear about aligning with someone like Ajit Pawar!
