The State Elections heat is gradually rising. First, we have Himachal Pradesh followed by the prestigious Gujrat elections. Next year will see critical elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Chhatisgarh, and Telangana. The political games, controversies, accusations, and rebuttals will all rise to a deafening crescendo soon. And it should be. These successful elections are the hallmark of our democracy, the badge of honor for our country.
Each of these elections throws different problems and scenarios. Indian electorate does not necessarily vote in tandem for State and Central elections. For example, Delhi overwhelmingly votes for AAP in state elections while votes for BJP in its entirety in the Central elections. Madhya Pradesh and Gujrat strongly back BJP in both Central and State elections. Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh always witness a tight and seesaw race between BJP and Congress over the last couple of decades. In Rajasthan, BJP and Congress are changing seats every other election.
Karnataka has a unique situation. It's the only southern state where BJP is quite strong. At the same time, it's one of the rare states where Congress is also quite strong. The regional party Janata Dal (U) has a sizable vote bank as well. This trifecta tussle gets real in Karnataka. The state of KA is a prosperous and industrialized state with a rich history. The caste equations, the defections, and the religious divide all play a big role. Corruption somehow is not a big issue that speaks volumes about the 'incorruptibility' of political parties! If I predict, I believe the election results will be between Congress and BJP. The JD(U) will melt away. However, there will not be a clear-cut majority giving rise to the potential for either horse trading or defections. In any case,
Madhya Pradesh has been a BJP bastion for more than 20 years ago. People of Madhya Pradesh faithfully elect BJP at State and Center (except for the one seat of Chhindwara). I believe that trend is likely to continue. There is no regional party in MP and Congress has increasingly become irrelevant. The infighting allowed one of its senior and young leaders to leave the party couple of years ago. Which led to the fall of the Congress State Govt that they unexpectedly won in the last State Elections. And since then Congress is simply coasting without any thought of reaching any destination. This means people are left with no choice but to vote for BJP. Plus, BJP has done quite a bit of developmental work in MP. They should win the election on the merits of work completed rather than because of the disarray of Congress.
BJP is likely to win comfortably in Gujrat. The state has been a solid backer of the BJP for more than 25 years now. The situation is unlikely to change this time. The party probably felt overconfident last time and got a bit of a rude lesson from the electorate. This time it is very evident that party leadership is all in and working very hard from top to the bottom. Plus, Congress, instead of building on last election's win, has squandered away everything. Even one of Congress's firebrand leaders - a new entrant to the party, was left in the lurch, leading to his defection to BJP. The only question that remains is how big will BJP win this time. Will it break Modi's decisive 2007 election?
Rajasthan is the polar opposite of Gujrat. The Congress has maintained its stronghold through Chief Minister Gehlot. Though there have been rumors of Searching Pilot breaking away, nothing has materialized so far. I don't think Pilot has enough ground-level support to rebel but he has enough to cause headaches for Congress internally. BJP on the other hand is not a united house in Rajasthan. The former Chief Minister is not entirely on board with the powerful Central govt. party figures. Though nothing has come out in the open the seesaw trend that was witnessed in RJ in the last few elections may not happen this time. It will be a tight contest with some hope for BJP to form the government again.
Whatever may be the results, the so-called political commentators will jump to the conclusion about the Loksabha elections in 2024. If BJP wins big in all four states then they will conclude that Modi is winning with a thumping majority in 2024. And even one loss will be projected as the end of the Modi era. The reality is fairly clear even in 2022. Notwithstanding all state elections - the Modi government is coming back with another massive mandate in 2024. That is a certainty.
