Op Sindoor - What's Next?

Despite a somewhat confusing turn of events leading to India readily accepting a ceasefire request from Pakistan, the actions taken by India as part of Operation Sindoor may have far-reaching effects on the future of conflict with Pakistan. 

1) Counter Intelligence - For the last two Islamic terrorist attacks, India responded in different ways. For the first one, India sent special forces into Pakistan-occupied Kashmir to eliminate the perpetrators. And the second time, India dropped precision bombs on terrorist camps, removing scores of Islamic terrorists in one go. So, the response to barbaric killings of Hindus in Pahalgam had to be not just different but severely more punishing. And the punishment rained from the sky. Indian armed forces hit multiple locations simultaneously, showcasing superior air power and Israel-level ground intelligence. The armed forces knew where to attack and what they were targeting, allowing them to select precise ammunition. These two advantages show that Indian intelligence has an excellent network of deeply embedded assets within Pakistan and Islamic terrorist organizations. Now, Pakistan not only has to worry about its completely exposed defense and defensive infrastructure, but it will have a tough time trusting anyone within its carefully built Islamic terrorist asset network. 

2) "I will look for you, I will find you, and I will kill you" is a famous line from the action movie "Taken." The Indian attack strategy, in response to the Pahalgam attack, embodies the spirit of this dialogue. Indian political establishment finally crossed the mental barrier of 'jaane do' and decided to go for the kill. From now on, India's response to any Islamic terrorist attack from Pakistan will be unleashing violence. There will not be any equivocation in response. For the first time since the start of Islamic terrorism in India, i.e., since 1989 onwards, India has decided not only to respond but respond with a decidedly higher proportion. The operations will no longer be covert and time-bound. Instead, the response will be like an escalation matrix. The counter-response from Pakistan will be dealt with at a step higher intensity. The only way out for Pakistan will be a total defeat or a quick surrender. 

3) The Indus Water Treaty weapon - India has finally invoked this weapon after more than 60 years. India always played the role of a big brother and allowed water to flow unabated into Pakistan. India did not even take its share of water as per the agreement and even allowed that water to flow into Pakistan. I don't know why we tried to be so magnanimous. Pakistan wants to occupy not just Kashmir but also kill Hindus in India. Their state policies and strategic goal of Pakistan, especially since Zia-ul-Haq's reign in the 1980s, has been to destroy or dismantle India, come what may. Pakistan sees itself as a soldier of Islam and considers attacking Hindu India as its sacred duty. How do you deal with such delusion? Certainly not through any sensible dialogue or through any rational understanding. The message, then, must be delivered from a position of strength and might. And among many options, leveraging Indust water is essential. Almost 90% of Pakistan's agricultural land relies on the life-giving waters of the Indus River for irrigation. This vital water source is the backbone of the country's farming industry, nurturing the fields that feed the nation. When a river runs dry or overflows its banks, the consequences are immediate and far-reaching, affecting the lives of tens of millions of people. The ripple effects of such events can transform communities overnight, leaving people struggling to adapt to a new reality. The Pakistani junta immediately labeled India's suspension of the Indus Water Treaty as an 'act of war,' and rightfully so. And just like the conventional war they lost in 48 hours, the Pakitan quickly realized they could not win the 'water' war either. Perhaps thirst and hunger will bring some sense to them. Or maybe not! 

The consistent message from Indian political leaders and the Indian army is that they have established a red line. If Pakistan crosses that line, it will face severe consequences, including the destruction of its military resources and widespread starvation for millions. However, Pakistan will not stop its provocative behavior. They may remain quiet for a while until the situation calms down, but they are likely to revert to their old tactics soon enough. And when that happens, the real question is whether the Indian government and military will uphold the sanctity of the red line they have drawn.

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?

Was the recent brief conflict between India and Pakistan a lost opportunity for India to inflict lasting damage on Pakistan? The dust has not yet settled in Pakistan from all the body-blow bombings Pakistan received from the Indian Air Force. So, to assess the war's outcome is a bit of a dicey proposition. The Indian armed forces and the Government of India (GoI) have also clarified that any adventure, either militarily or through proxy actors, will be considered an act of war. In short, the military hostilities may resume at any moment. 

The Background:

After the brutal killings of innocent Hindu tourists in Kashmir, the GoI and Indian armed forces did not fall for a knee-jerk reaction. Instead, the armed forces and the government machinery started working in sync in shaping the response to the latest Islamic terrorist attack. The foreign ministry assiduously worked on foreign relations, while the armed forces must have put finishing touches on the plans to punish Pakistan. Not a single soul in India or abroad thought that these dastardly terrorist attacks would go unpunished. The buzz surrounding India's potential response sparked intense speculation: how robust would their retaliation be, and what goals would be accomplished through their attack? I feel the latter part of the question, where the wheels may have come off. 

The Response: 

Wow! The Indian armed forces unleashed a breathtaking display of power from the skies, a sight that left the Pakistanis in awe like never before! All three arms of the defence came together and unleashed the punishment. The technology was advanced, and so were the strategies. The escalatory steps were measured and precise. Initially, only the Islamic terrorist camps in Pakistani-occupied Kashmir and mainland Pakistan, spread across hundreds of kilometers, were hit virtually simultaneously with deadly precision by Indian firepower. Though Pakistanis will never confirm the exact number of deaths, hundreds of people, including some of the most dreaded terrorists, met their final fate before even knowing what hit them. The response from Pakistan was rather meek. They tried to increase the theater of war across the entire India-Pakistan border, but they did that by launching hundreds of drones. The strategy was futuristic, but it had two fatal flaws. First, they underestimated the defensive prowess of India, and second, they vastly overestimated the offensive prowess of the Chinese imports they had deployed. The counter response from the Indian forces was indeed a game changer, where an assortment of missiles from all three branches of the armed forces targeted a variety of Pakistani armed infrastructure across the length and breadth of their country. The airbases, seaports, and even Pakistan's nuclear fuel base were bombed with very high accuracy by Indian missiles. Bombings by the advanced Brahmos missile was the punch that brought sense to the Pakistan army brass. They immediately dialled world powers and unfurled the white flag. Pakistan called for a ceasefire, and to everyone's astonishment, India swiftly agreed! 

And just like that, India again let go of Pakistan without Pakistan facing consequences for its actions. Pakistan can quickly build the airbases, ports, or runways of strategic importance. And Pakistanis will replace the dead terrorist with fresh recruits in no time. India did not even extract a minimal price from Pakistan for agreeing on the ceasefire. India could have asked them to hand over Hafiz Saeed in return for a truce? Maybe India could have asked for Dawood Ibrahim? Forget about these old-timer Islamic jihadi terrorists, India did not even ask Pakistan to hand over the master handlers of the Pehelgam attack! 

What were India's real gains from all of this?

The Expectations: 

Going into this conflict, India had strong international support, immense support from the Indians, and strong support from all political parties. The Indian economy is growing robustly, and the forex reserve is at a record high. In short, all the winds required to sail were present. And yet, India did not go for the Pakistani 'jugular'. The PoK was never physically attacked, and the Indian army never crossed the international border. Indian forces did not harm Pakistani civilians despite Pakistanis repeatedly attempting to kill Indian civilians. There were no threats to support Balochistan independence. Can we not have at least levelled the Karachi port? The armed forces and our honorable Prime Minister repeatedly discuss teaching Pakistan a lesson. I'm curious about the lesson that was meant to resonate with Pakistan. There was jargon like 'deterrants', or 'defensive offence',  liberally thrown around, but it means nothing. Pakistan lost few jet planes, some radars, some airstrips but Pakistani will to create a Islamist Jihadi state, hell bent on destroying India and kill Hindus in India, is intact. The means may change, but their objective remains the same. I don't think they are even frightened of anything. If they can make India back down so quickly, what is there to be afraid of? 

People will point towards India suspending the Indus Water Treaty. The step was pending for a long time. But India cannot logistically stop the Indus water right away. The infrastructure to halt or divert water enough to impact Pakistani agriculture adversely will take years, if not decades, to build. If only this is to be treated as the win for India, then we could have done that without any attacks. Launching BrahMos is meaningless if we are not following that with something of such a proportion that Pakistan will not even think about doing anything stupid ever again! 

The Aftermath:

India's sheer military power was on display during this short war, and inversely, Pakistan's sheer lack of it was also displayed. However, India's military might not have changed the status quo. The Pakistani army and jihadis in Pakistan will regroup. They will take their time gaining strength, and they will bide their time for the right opportunity, and then they will again unleash Islamic terrorism on India. 

The Modi government may have had legitimate reasons to withdraw entirely from the war. But for now, it feels like a huge letdown and a missed opportunity. 

Pahalgam and The War Frontier!

The recent Pahalgam attack was a shock to the system. The barbaric nature of it is not new to Kashmir since the Kashmiri Islamists have done a lot worse during the ethnic cleansing of Kashmiri Hindus in 1989. There have been attacks on Hindu pilgrims in the early 2000s, where scores were gunned down. All those attacks perpetrated by Islamic terrorists are only towards Hindus and for them being Hindus. All the stories from Kashmir of the local population being very helpful towards the tourists during this time confuse me. The "Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde" nature of local Kashmiri is hard to fathom. The local Kashmiri will be the first one to pay a hefty price for this dastardly act. Most have nothing to do with the attack, yet tourism will take a massive hit. All the 'shikaras,' restaurants, and hotels will be empty for some time. I hope the economic catastrophe will be short-term. 

The second party to face the music, and rightfully so, will be Pakistan. The country is virtually broke. Hence, they continue to trudge along after throwing themselves in the bed of whoever loans them money. First, it was the US, a combination of Saudis and UAE. However, the US has pulled back, and Saudi/UAE has put filters on their money supply. So, Pakistan decided to change the beds with China. That 'relationship' is not going well, and it is a matter of time before Pakistan looks for a new 'partner.' But this time, there may not be any suitable prospects. 

The state of Pakistan has been in a terminal decline for decades now. Despite ample resources regarding the fertile land of Indus (home of the oldest civilization in the world), trading ports, and mineral wealth of Balochistan, the economy is less than the economy of Mumbai. The population of Pakistan is 250 million, while the population of Mumbai is 15 million! The economy of Pakistan has been shrinking for the last few years. The hand loans from Arab friends have been drying, the fake money racket they successfully ran for decades came to a halt after demonetization in India a few years ago, and Chinese funds did not add much value to Pakistan's economy. A country can survive political instability, insurrection, coup, or rebellion, but enduring economic instability for a sustained period is almost impossible. People have to eat, so they have to work; if either does not happen for an extended period, the state or the society will fail. Pakistan is close to that point. The question is, why do these bloody shenanigans in India? Why not pay attention internally? And Build a road or two!

Two reasons- first, the old habits die hard, and second, no one in Pakistan knows how to govern their country anymore. The geopolitical events that Pakistan has expertly leveraged to its advantage in the past do not consider Pakistan valid. The 'West' was done with the Cold War more than 35 years ago, while the 'new world order' of post-9/11 happened more than 20 years ago. Pakistan, which is central to these events, has not gotten over it, though. Pakistani Army leveraged these events to milk billions of dollars from the West to fill their pockets and also to continually finger India for no apparent gains. The world has since moved from these events. India has grown into an economic powerhouse, and India's military forces, as recently as four years ago, gave a bloody nose to China. Yet, Pakistan continues to see the world through the lens of India (and Hindus!) Pakistan army and uneducated masses still dream of destroying Hindu India. In this delusion of theirs, Pakistan is the forebearer of Islamic invaders and marauders from medieval times, where they are the only 'true' soldiers of Islam. Pakistan, unfortunately, could never develop any other identity beyond religious zealotry. Any identity or ideology that is not progressive is on the road to perdition. 

The tragedy is these religious dimwits will drag the innocents as well.

How will India and India's political leadership react to this? The initial signals are measured and mixed. There was no immediate military action at the border. However, a far more ominous step that India took was to announce their desire to block Indus water into Pakistan. Stopping Indus water will not be easy and will not be a quick leverage. The infrastructure and logistics will take some time. But when this happens, the majority of Pakistan will die of thirst, and whoever is left will starve. Asymmetric warfare is a new frontier in India-Pak conflict that does not bode well for Pakistan.   

None of these are good signs for Pakistan. Worse, none of the key world powers said anything against India's initial steps. Even the usual suspects like the United Kingdom and China have kept mum. There is very likely to be military action. The Indian public is essentially expecting and demanding it. The last such wanton terrorist act was met with precise military actions deep within Pakistan's boundary. Something more significant than the last one is likely to happen. 

How does Pakistan react to it? I don't know, but their reaction will decide their fate. If they react violently, it will lead to further escalation from the Indian armed forces, even leading to the independence of Balochistan.