The Fall of Assad's

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria was spectacular and unexpected. At least, regular schmucks like me did not see it coming. One reason is that they had been fighting the civil war successfully for more than a decade, and second, in the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, Syria was not on anyone's radar. But how the regime crumbled showed how ephemeral these propped-up regimes are. It's hard to know who is propping them up and to what extent. But once that support evaporates, these regimes go poof! 

The general commentary on the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict veers between banal and stupid. There is outrage over the Palestinian deaths, denial over the crime Hamas perpetrated, and then pontification over how Israel cannot solve this problem through warfare. The reality is that the Oct 7 attack by Hamas is going alter the future and geography of the Middle East for the foreseeable future. The ball game has changed for good. It is no longer the old conflict of cat-and-mouse that Israeli forces played with Hamas and Hezbollah. It is no longer a conflict where the Israeli army attempts to minimize civilian casualties; all the while, Hamas/Hezbollah maximizes the casualties for more funding and PR. It is hard to figure out the approximate civilian casualties in Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria, but suffice it to say that it runs into tens of thousands of innocent lives. That's tens of thousands more than needed. And yet, Hamas is refusing to release the hostages, and none of the world powers or Arab powers can force Hamas's hand. And the innocents are paying a heavy price for that. 

In response, the Israeli army has decided to take a no-holds-barred approach. They not only became purposefully indiscriminate in unleashing violence, but they spread the theater much more expansive than anyone could probably have predicted. Israeli army first dismantled Hamas in Gaza and Palestine. Then they moved on to Hezbollah. For both of these terrorist organizations, Israelis not only went after their ground network but also picked the senior leadership apart - one by one. The fury was staggeringly violent, but the precision in killing both Hamas and Hezbollah leadership stood unprecedented. Then, the war theater expanded into Lebanon and Syria. In the meantime, Israel and the U.S. Navy started tightening bolts around Iran in the Gulf of Hormuz. It seems like both Israel and the U.S. are hell-bent on making Iran pay the ultimate price for the horrendous attacks of Oct 7. The current conflict is no longer a battle with proxies; those proxies are about to be eliminated. But this is about going after the sponsors who pretend to be warriors while sitting comfortably in their houses. 

Assads have been playing the proxy game of Iran for a long time. With Iran increasingly finding itself in a tight spot, the Assads were on thin ice already. The Assads thought they were being clever by also becoming a proxy of Russia. But with Russia embattled in Ukraine, Assad's hold on Syria was a lot more tenuous than what appeared. The U.S. stuck at this weak moment by covertly funding and providing for the rebels fighting against the Assads. The Israelis were also waiting to pounce once the rebels moved it. It was like a perfect storm, except Assads had no shelter to run to. 

What is next for Syria? It's hard to predict, especially since no one expected the last few weeks. However, it is doubtful that Syria will have a calm future. The rebels will not be able to govern. Being a rebel is without any responsibilities, while governing is only that. The U.S. and Israel are not going to let the region fall prey to Iran's influence again. The country will either be divided, officially, into smaller countries. Even if it's not official, the government will be 'governed by various rebel factions. Turkey, Jordan, and Iraq will try to gain some influence to shore up their borders. The U.S. and Israel will be watching the grounds like hawks. The state-sponsored violence of Assad's will subside, but the region will not be peaceful for a long, long time! 

The 'Un-rise' of Kamala!

The US elections just concluded, not with a banger as expected but with a whimper as it was supposed to be. There was deafening noise around Kamala Harris's candidacy. She was not immediately considered a worthy challenger to Trump, but a lot of so-called liberals had already anointed her as the next President of the United States. But 'Thoughts and Prayers' do not translate into votes, nor does intense hatred towards the opponent lead towards victory. To win an election requires a concrete agenda and a vision with a well-laid path to achieve it, and all this requires a leader who is a master communicator. A leader must have a grip on what people are thinking and a firm grip on the language to reach the intended audience. 

This is not to say that Trump has all the above qualities. His vision is dark, full of retribution and conflict, and feels unattainable. But, his entire life, political career, and rise to become the President the first time and now, with an overwhelming majority the second time, always seemed improbable. However, in contrast to Kamala Harris, Trump showcased an agenda, however vulgar it was. He did provide a vision. And, most importantly, he spoke his mind forcefully even though he was either politically incorrect or simply flat-out incorrect! Kamala Harris flip-flopped on every significant issue; she oscillated depending on the crowd and the problem. The agenda of Kamala Harris and her Democratic party was to make sure Trump is not elected. Fear does work in politics but can only work to a certain extent. Fear cannot camouflage a lack of political acumen, charisma, political agenda, and strategy. The rallies and the messaging were centered so much around Trump that I wondered if Democrats were campaigning for Trump! 

The American electorate is not mature enough to elect a woman as President of the country. It is necessary to have more maturity in electing a person of color and foreign ancestry, especially if that ancestry is from just one generation ago. American voters do not possess such maturity. We can argue how awful that is and what can be done about it. The reality is that no one asked the Democratic Party to impose such a candidate on people and did not expect a resounding defeat. If Trump is such a wrong choice (and he is likely to prove that!), be smart and bet on a horse with a chance to win. And not force social agenda into a political strategy. Ultimately, the voters chose what they believed was the lesser of two evils. 

It's just a bad situation all around. And everyone will pay the price of that! 

Haryana Elections Surprise!

The Haryana elections have been a great surprise to the most. My predication was, BJP would lose by a small margin. They would win enough seats to hold their ground but need to win more to form the government. But BJP leadership and strategists had other plans! When they smelled defeat, they hunkered down and got busy making rapid changes. First, they removed the Chief Minister of more than 9 years and replaced him with a relatively new face. The easy transition between Chief Ministers starkly contrasts with dynastic, 'Jaagirdaari' types in-fighting in Congress whenever there is a change. Second, the BJP implemented a time-tested strategy of overhauling the existing power structure. In 2013, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, incumbent CM of Madhya Pradesh, did not give tickets to more than two-thirds of sitting MLAs. A bold strategy that paid spectacularly as he returned to power with an overwhelming majority- adding 22 more seats than his prior term. BJP similarly gave tickets to only a few sitting MLAs. This led to discontent in the ranks. There were rebellions and party changes. But the party and the leadership stayed put. What was there to lose anyway? Third and last, they made the election local - no longer the Modi election engine. Modi ji played his role and campaigned, but the state-level elections remained state-level. The door-to-door campaign and booth management have always been BJP's fortress, and it was on full display! 

However, the BJP's victory in the Haryana elections was not just a good showing but a historic win. In 2014, when BJP first won the majority, they secured 47 out of 90 seats. This time, when they were expected to face a massive defeat, the party held their ground and won 48 seats, their best-ever electoral showing in the state. The math behind this victory can be explained, but what about the voter sentiments that drove such a significant shift? What factors led to this landslide victory?

The Congress party and the other so-called opposition were riding high, understandably so, after sudden gains they achieved during the May general elections. However, they thought they won more seats because of issues they raised, which is not valid. They have yet to come up with better solutions than what the current dispensation has in place. They did not have any fresh ideas either. In the name of electoral strategy, all they had was scaremongering, rumor-mongering, and archaic ideas of social justice that the majority of the upward-moving Indians do not identify with. The scare tactics about the Indian Constitution being in danger did work to an extent. Still, incumbency played an equal or more role in giving a jolt to the BJP in the general elections. Unfortunately, Congress, one of the only main opposition parties in Haryana, stuck to the old formula. They raised false alarms over social justice and outsourced the outrage industry to a third party (the Wrestlers, in this case).

To make matters worse, they made critical mistakes in the caste equation. BJP has been constantly creating a new flank to oppose the dominant caste in every election. In Haryana, the BJP, in the past,  managed to unite the non-Jat castes. The Congress party attempted to counter this by adding Selja Kumari to the state leadership. But that backfired spectacularly since the former CM was in no mood to surrender his position of power. That impacted the voting pattern since the non-Jat voters may have decided to stick with the BJP. 

The last but essential development often overlooked is the Hindu vote bank consolidation. It has been happening regularly since 2014. The vote consolidation did happen in Haryana as well. There is no metric to calculate that since the Hindu votes do get divided along the caste lines. But constant disparaging of Hindu sentiments by the Congress and other Opposition parties has been building a silent wave of antipathy towards them. If the BJP plays the cards right, they are likely to win in the upcoming Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections. 

The Ripple Effects of General Elections

The current political situation in India is a fascinating puzzle, with the aftermath of the General Elections still unfolding. Not all critical political players have grasped the full implications of the results, and the election threw the wildest possible scenario. The opposition parties, after a long struggle, finally managed to land a punch on BJP's formidable election machinery. The disruptive force of the Modi factor in Indian politics has been a unique phenomenon. Since 2014, every election at every level in every corner of the country has become a referendum on Modi Ji.  The Opposition, at first, could not comprehend this unique situation, and then, they could not counter it effectively. The political discourse of Hindutva, coupled with rapid economic growth ushered by the Modi government, was a potent force.

The narrative took an unexpected turn when the Opposition, especially the Congress party, stumbled upon a counter-narrative - that the BJP is planning to change the Constitution and do away with the reservations. By sheer chance, this canary of lies hit the chord. Apart from this new election strategy, Modi Ji and BJP were already fighting apparent voter fatigue and anti-incumbency. The Opposition played the narrative that the Modi government plans to tinker with the Constitution, again and again, once the Opposition realized there was an audience for this story. This strategy was not a knock-out punch; it would never be one. However, it did bring the BJP down from the heady clouds. The seat drop, especially in Uttar Pradesh, will undoubtedly slow down the BJP's march shortly.  

But does that mean the halo of Modi ji has dimmed? I don't think so. His popularity is increasing. Modi Ji joined the hallowed chamber with only two occupants - our first PM, Jawaharlal Nehru, and then Indira Gandhi. These two Prime Ministers also continue to generate respect across the voting patterns. However, Shri Nehru's popularity has been waning lately, Smt. Indira Gandhi's popularity among the masses is still high. Similarly, Modi Ji continues to be widespread across the party lines. His clean image, work ethic, and ability to connect with the masses remain unparalleled in the current political situation. 

However, will that popularity translate into more and more votes? That is to be seen in some of the upcoming elections. BJP is grappling with 'grown-up' issues. Growing rapidly is fun, but maintaining the lead is a onerous task. The strategy needs to constantly be agile. And most importantly, the ideology also needs to constantly shift. No one can claim to be a true ideologue in politics. But BJP does hold on to its founding ideology to a large extent. And that's where they are likely to problems. The people that shouldn't be in the party are being added because they can potentially win the election. While the people who built the party or are core ideologues are being sidelined so the party can potentially win the elections. This is bound to happen for any political organization. I hope BJP sticks to the ideology and does not get carried away to win elections at any cost. I hope the party sticks with home-grown, in-house cadre instead of relying on 'imports'. I hope the party gives free hand to Yogi Adityanath and not fall prey to internal politicsl.  I am curious to see how the BJP manages this situation. 

They are still the best and, for most purposes, the only political party that works towards the development of the country. If the party mismanages this rapid rise and the issues it brings, then the country will pay the heavy price. 

The Kamala Effect In The White House!

The current US Presidential race has been a wild affair so far. It is such a rollercoaster ride that even the astute political pundits feel dizzy. To start with, you have the dramatic comeback of Donald Trump. Buried and thought to be left for dead under multiple fraud investigations, no one saw him demolishing opposition within his part to win the Presidential nomination. The fact that he is a convicted felon mattered to literally no one. Presidential races are ultimately popularity contests. And Trump knows how to remain popular! Trump entered the race against an incumbent President with such force that his winning the election almost felt like a foregone conclusion. The deteriorating faculties of the incumbent President Biden were often at the crossroads with his ambition. That played very well in Trump's campaign. The first televised debate was a disaster for President Biden. The incoherence, the stumbling, the mumblings were a cringe of epic proportion. Trump got an opportunity to debate with himself, and he did well.

As if that was not enough, Trump was (slightly off) the center of a deplorable attempt on his life. Violence or assassinations have no place in a civil society. However, Trump's campaign just hit another jackpot with the failed assassination attempt. This event not only bolstered Trump's image as a resilient leader but also significantly increased his campaign funds for the 2024 election (that he is accused and convicted of using for his gains in the last election campaign). Trump's campaign was probably hiring an interior decorator to redesign the white house Presidential bedroom! 

There is a reason political drama is hard to predict. It's a classic butterfly effect. As Trump, in his mind, was readying himself to ascend the throne, he overplayed his hand. The debacle of the televised debate forced the opposition to take drastic measures. In an unprecedented move, the Democratic Party forced the incumbent President to resign from running again. As if that was not enough, the Party decided to punt wild and nominated a woman with mixed racial background, Kamala Harris. This decision was a strategic move to appeal to a broader voter base and to provide a fresh perspective in the race. Initial reactions to Kamala Harris's nomination were decidedly mixed. The last time Americans had a choice of electing a woman President, they elected Trump! Will the history repeat itself? Perhaps. However, to everyone's surprise, Kamala Harris's campaign is progressing. Undecided voters are leaning towards voting for Harris. These undecided voters hated Trump, but they hated Biden more. Kamala Harris's candidacy provided these undecided voters an honorable way out; now they are banding together behind her. Trump and his campaign managers did not see this coming. They are found completely flat-footed. Trump is panicking, and instead of adjusting, continuing with his old strategy of personally attacking his opposition, constantly lying on everything, and, instead of any sensible policy, blabbering randomly on random matters. The only difference between President Biden's and Trump's incoherence is Trump sounds very confident! 

You can fool some people sometimes, you can fool all the people one time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time! Trump is likely to find that out the hard way in November. His rabble-rousing has aroused the apathetic voters, who will likely come out en masse to vote against him! 

The rapid shifts in political fortunes are a testament to the unpredictable nature of the US Presidential race. The old adage of 'it's not done till it's done' holds true, and with a month and a half left until the elections, the potential outcomes are significant. While things can still change, for now, it seems Kamala Harris's candidacy is on the brink of a significant development in the White House. 

Congress - What's Next?

Lies and rumor-mongering. That is the newest strategy of the Congress party, particularly Rahul Gandhi. The party has recently faired much better than most expected in the recent election. Buoyed by the success, the voters will likely believe that the Party and Rahul Gandhi will raise real issues like taxation or inflation. Instead, we are witnessing Rahul Gandhi lying through his teeth in the Parliament on issues such as the Agniveer program. And instead of cornering the government on taxation, doing imbecile acts like walking across to shake hands with the PM and hug him. After this juvenile show, Rahul Gandhi lied some more, like calling out the situation of Locomotive Pilots of trains when all parameters showed that the problem of these train drivers had improved in the last ten years. No mainstream press or journalist is asking Rahul counter-questions. Perhaps Rahul needs to let them ask questions. He and the party have assumed the role of a guerilla terrorist - attacking and then scuttling to the dark and putrid corners. 

The strategy of 'lying first, second, and third' is familiar. It is one of the oldest tricks in any political book. Donald Trump has been using it to great success. Perhaps, Rahul realized that, and now he is trying to assume the Trumpian avatar. Trying to become Trump of India. He has learned from his past mistakes and lies only in the Parliament. Rahul was disqualified from his parliamentary seat and humbled by the justice system for publicly lying. Instead of learning from this and being more responsible with his words and actions, he changed the venue of spreading false information. What is said in Parliament is fully protected; no one can file a libel case based on parliamentary speech. That is the reason Kejariwal goes on a rampage in the Delhi assembly: he knows he is untouchable there. Rahul followed Kejariwal in this aspect. Of course, Rahul has ways to go before he can compete with Kejariwal. No one lies like Kejariwal. No one!

Do Indian people deserve Rahul Gandhi? Certainly not. An overwhelming majority of Indians work very hard to earn their living. They face the consequences if they don't perform in their jobs. They behave responsibly and maturely, unlike Rahul Gandhi who has never faced consequence for his actions. It is unlikely he will face any backlash in the future. Mockery, yes! But he is never going to lose his stronghold over the grand old party. He will always have servents waiting to serve him, no matter the job. Quite a position he has, in stark contrast to the hardworking Indian people, who deserve better than a leader who evades responsibility. 

He also doesn't have to pay taxes. By the way, has he ever had a real job to earn his living? 

Having no opposition is not good for democracy. Having Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party as an opposition is far worse. They will not think twice before putting the country in danger, driven by their lust for power. Take the example of Jairam Ramesh. This man has not won a single vote in his name, yet he caused havoc in the economy through his environmental terrorism activism. And the moment this person sees some sunshine, he has gone after the Nicobar island project - a strategically important initiative needed for India's maritime security in the Indian ocean. Perhaps, Ramesh has received his Yens recently! Their actions are not just a threat to the government but to the entire nation, a fact that should deeply concern every Indian. 

It will be interesting to see how Modi Ji and his government manage the next few years. Despite the Modi government's tax on terrorism, this government is still the best bet for India's future. I hope Rahul Gandhi and his servant party lose steam barking and, most importantly, come to the next election; better sense prevails for Indian voters. Under the leadership of Modi Ji, there is hope for a brighter future for India. 

BJP - What's Next?

The recent Lok Sabha election results, a seismic shock to the system, have potential of significantly reshaping the political landscape. The unexpected surge of the Opposition block, a clear sign of shifting power dynamics, and the surprise blow to the ruling BJP in UP were outcomes that most of the general public and poll pundits did not see coming. However, I would argue that these are not bad results for anyone. Very rarely, political strategies, rivalries, and brinkmanship create win-win situations. And the 2024 Lok Sabha elections come quite close to that.

Before I proceed, let me get a few things straight. BJP should have won absolute majority. The party and honorable Prime Minster have worked tirelessly to develop our nation, so general voters should have reposed their absolute faith in them. The opposition block, especially the Congress Party, winning so many seats is not good news for our country. Some may argue that it is suitable for democracy, etc., which may be true in an ideal world. The reality is that the ideologies that these opposition parties espouse are dangerous to the future of our country. The country does need to defeat the inane, counter-productive, and borderline anti-national, myopic ideologies of the Opposition. For this purpose, the BJP is the sole option available to us as a nation.

Winning three consecutive times in anything is extremely hard. Winning Lok Sabha elections thrice in India is rare as finding another Kohinoor diamond. Only Shri Jawaharlal Nehru has won three times in a row. But India's population in 1962 was little more than a third of where it currently stands. And Shri Nehru was still basking in the glory of independence struggle movement. Shri Modi had none of these advantages. Coming from a humble background and Modi ji, for a decade, has managed the population of 140 crores well. Him winning third time is a lot more commendable than Shri Nehru's hattrick. 

The general consensus in the country was BJP will absolute majority easily. That did not happen. What are some of the critical reasons Modi ji and BJP lost out (by a whisker) the majority mark? The reasons for this, including the role of Hindutva and anti-incumbency, are crucial to understanding the election dynamics.

Hindutva does not win a majority - Rewind a bit to January of 2024. Shri Ram mandir was recently inaugurated. Modi ji and BJP were basking in the glory of completing one of their stated goals of building a grand temple in Ayodhya. The enthusiasm was high across the country. Even the voters who wouldn't vote for BJP were happy to see the temple. Alas, that alone does not mean voters will elect the BJP again. If that was the case, wouldn't the BJP have won grandly back in 1991? Hindutva works only up to an extent. Hindu voter bank is divided across caste lines, that's one. But Hindu voters do not get swayed by religious fervor, unlike the Muslim vote bank. Hindu vote banks need what they need from the political parties and the ruling dispensation. Religion can be taken care of later or privately. Caste dynamics, development, low inflation, higher growth and Hindutva is the combination that is required, and in that combination. It is very tough to get all of the above factors correctly. 

Anti-incumbency: Governing a vast nation like India is bound to create negative perceptions in different pockets despite best intentions. And it is also a good sign for a democratic framework that voters are keeping a tight leash on potential dictators to rise. We have experienced Indira Gandhi as a dictator, which was not pretty. Despite the best intentions and best possible implementation of a host of economic policies by the Modi government, India's economy is too big and complex to manage. There will be some social strata left in disadvantageous situations. For example, the GST has been a game changer but has adversely impacted inflation. Despite interim COVID years, the fiscal deficit has been steady because of the constant rise in tax collection (among other factors!). However, taxpayers feel extreme heat of high tax brackets and double or triple taxation. All such factors do play a crucial role in impacting election results. It is noteworthy that despite a decade-long rule, BJP's vote share has been rock solid.

Hubris: Like anti-incumbency, hubris set in is also bound to happen. Anyone or any political organization that has been ruling for a long time believes in a certain way to win. These 'certain ways' obviously worked in the past but may need change, and that change is either missed or resisted.  A classic example is the BJP absorbing scores of 'leaders' from opposition parties and giving them contesting tickets. This strategy ruffled feathers in party cadres and leaders who have been toiling for decades. But more than that, how effective is this short- and long-term strategy? It is evident that in the last two elections, people may not have vetted their local candidate since they just wanted to get Shri Modi elected. But what was the likelihood the same voting pattern would continue?

Similarly, breaking opposition parties and forming alliances with the breakaway factions was another strategy that backfired spectacularly, especially in Maharashtra. Shri Modi's popularity has not waned even a bit, but people are looking for a change in style and functioning. Voters, especially the loyal BJP voters, are looking for a change in political strategies. I am sure we will see the change soon.

As I mentioned earlier, the BJP's vote share has not changed. Despite taking severe blows in Maharashtra (expected) and UP (unexpected), they gained quite a bit in TN, Kerala, Telangana, and Odisha. The party has truly become a pan-India party. And that's an outstanding achievement in itself. The cadre remains strong and committed, and electoral fortunes by each state (except for Maharashtra) remain bright. The party has stayed true to its identity and has achieved quite a bit from its manifesto. All these are pointing towards a strong future, but the future is not without its uncertainties.

Now, all they need to do is stay clear about aligning with someone like Ajit Pawar!