The Delhi assembly elections concluded a couple of days ago, and the exit polls released yesterday indicated a stunning defeat for the Aam Aadmi Party. In recent years, exit polls have frequently provided inaccurate predictions. A notable example is the last Lok Sabha general elections, where it was widely assumed that the BJP would secure at least 320 seats, but the party ended up with only 240 seats, which was a significant disappointment. It is possible that the exit polls are also mispredicting the results of the Delhi assembly elections. Perhaps the exit polls are also mispredicting Delhi assembly results.
As we keep a close eye on the election canvassing, we see some intriguing developments that could pose challenges for AAP. It’s important to note that both the party and Arvind Kejriwal have had a compelling rise, largely thanks to media coverage that painted them as champions of the common man. Kejriwal emerged as a figure of hope for many, a refreshing change in a political landscape often marred by corruption. He skillfully navigated the complexities of politics, gaining significant popularity along the way.
However, it seems Kejriwal may have misjudged the voters' perceptions. People are sharp and can see beyond the surface—many have sensed a shift from the idealism that once defined him to a more conventional, power-driven approach. Nonetheless, voters still showed their support during the assembly elections for several reasons. The Congress party’s tarnished reputation created a yearning for change, and the BJP wasn’t able to present a strong contender to challenge Kejriwal's position.
This situation opened a door for new possibilities. Voters were eager to embrace an innovative force, hoping for improvement. Unfortunately, rather than truly reading the room, Kejriwal may have let the adulation cloud his vision. While he certainly gained skills in political maneuvering, it’s crucial to remain grounded and connected to the people to sustain that trust and support.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has consistently struggled to gain support beyond voters in Delhi and Punjab. While the party had a remarkable victory in Punjab, successfully taking the state from the Congress party, this was the peak of its achievements. Since then, the AAP has suffered defeats in three consecutive Lok Sabha elections and has not won a single Lok Sabha seat in Delhi, since its inception. This lack of success indicates a growing maturity and perceptiveness among voters.
The cantankerous nature of the party and of Kejriwal may have finally become tiresome for the voters. His current incredulous promises likely sound hollow, and the circus shows he orchestrated during his arrest for corruption may have turned voters against him. It could also simply be a case of anti-incumbency. Regardless of the reason, it is evident that Kejriwal is not receiving the responses he was once accustomed to. This has made him desperate for new antics, such as accusing the Haryana government of poisoning the water supply. However, even that allegation has failed to generate any significant controversy. It seems that even his supporters in the media have abandoned him. Although the BJP has struggled to establish a coherent strategy in its Delhi unit over the past decade, they are likely to gain more seats simply because Kejriwal's dramatic antics are losing their charm.
Losing power in Delhi is simply not an option for Kejriwal. Without control over Delhi, he would feel like a fish out of water. Losing this position would immediately strip him of the media platform he currently wields. Moreover, if he loses Delhi, funding will dwindle. It's important to note that Kejriwal has already faced significant challenges, having spent months in jail despite being the Chief Minister. If he were to lose his position now, his situation would be even more precarious. As AAP navigates the political landscape with virtually no foothold in the Lok Sabha and solely in control of Punjab, it finds itself at a crucial crossroads that could define its very existence. Will they rise to the occasion, or is an existential crisis on the horizon?
I still expect the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to win the elections with a clear majority, despite the exit polls. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will also secure a substantial number of seats. As a result, the Delhi assembly will finally have a significant opposition presence. I feel positive about this outcome. It is about time that one of the most dishonest politicians and his disreputable party are shown their place.
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