Sunday, March 08, 2009

Analysis Of Recent Developments in Pakistan

I am kind of tired of writing about Pakistan but somehow these buggers manage to keep themselves in the news and that too for wrong reasons. I mean spreading terror around the world does take some efforts!

Things are moving so furiously in Pakistan that the repercussions will soon be felt throughout the world. I think another major terrorist attack is due soon. I don’t think the so called democratic government knows what’s going on but what’s worse is that even their military brass is clueless about these happenings. Dealing with devil is always a loose-loose contest. Pakistan should have known better!

Pakistani Government recently signed a peace accord with Talibani fighters in Swat region of Pakistan. In doing that they effectively gave away a part of their country to Taliban. Pakistani laws will be useless in that region and ultimate decider of anything that happens in that region will be Talibani fighters. I am surprised to see it hasn’t raised much of hackles in international media. There are articles about it in all the major publications but if that’s the maximum exposure even to of this proportion is getting then that’s more worrisome that the actual event.

Since getting their ass kicked by US forces Taliban has made North-West Frontier Province of Pakistan as their new home. Not knowing how to deal with these people Pakistan army allowed them to set up the base in their country. All though Taliban was Pakistani Armies creation the purpose was always to take over Afghanistan. The myopic leadership of Pakistan army can’t think beyond the boogie-man of India attacking them. They were worried that Afghanistan being friendly with India will support Indian invasion. So they created Taliban to take over Afghanistan in order to create strategic reserve in case if India attacks. India never attacked but now the chickens are coming home to roost.

The events of 9/11 were entirely unexpected for Pakistan army on many levels. One, it put the spotlight of whole world on them. Practically the whole world realized that the tumor of terrorism flourishes in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Second, they got dissociated from India. That is, news stopped taking Pakistan and India in same breath. For International media Pakistan became a problem child and that has nothing to do with India. And third US army is sitting solidly right next to their door. Pakistani army couldn’t disown Taliban nor could it support them. The pressure from international community was immense and they had limited options to maneuver.US army as well as political leadership is getting impatient. US drones regularly intrudes into Pakistani soil and few months ago US soldiers entered Pakistani soil in pursuit of Taliban. That must have sent Pakistani army brass into seizure. So they turned to their favorite enemy for help! The spurt in bomb blasts in India was their desperate attempt to deflect attention from them. The brazen attack in Mumbai was height of their frustration. But it didn’t do any good for them.

Coming back to our original point we can look at the peace accord between Talibani fighters and Pakistani military in two ways. One, Pakistani army is playing another game with US. They are showing to US that unless US stop pressurizing them they will have to do peace accord with Talibani elements. That way they can check-mate US into submission. Basically Pakistan is telling US that you better listen to us or we will screw you by openly befriending your enemies. Or, the second more scary situation is Pakistani army really don’t know how to fight with Taliban anymore. They are outsmarted by Taliban and getting daily beatings from them. With US on one side and supposedly Pakistan on other, I wonder how on earth Taliban is getting state of the art guns and ammunition! Does that mean there is a fissure in Pakistani army itself with one flank supporting Taliban and other fighting with them?

Reading the conflicting messages emanating from Pakistan leadership aftermath of Mumbai attacks as well as attack on Lankan cricket team tilts me towards the second scenario. That is, Pakistani leadership has no clue what the heck is happening.

Terrorist attacks happening around the world and them knowing everything was scary but them not knowing anything and attack still happening is worse!

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