The Karnataka elections are going to be outstanding. The state is one of the largest in terms of population, land mass, and most importantly, in terms of economy. The IT sector of India is synonymous with Bangalore. The state has been home to multiple critical central government institutions including defense and space organizations. The state is home to some of the iconic higher education institutions. The state has a rich history and heritage. The developmental indexes also generally put Karnataka in the upper bracket. For a state of this size, Karnataka's Human Development Index (HDI) ranks 11th in the country. The state is 5th in per capita income. The GDP is around $236 Billion, ranking them fifth in the country. The economy more than tripled in the last decade. I have traveled in northern Karnataka, traveled to and around Bangalore, south-western Karnataka (Coorg, Chikmagalur, etc. ), and west Karnataka of Tulu land, and the state infrastructure is visible everywhere. The poverty levels are low and per the statistics, around 13% population lives below national poverty. Most of the statistics on development have Karnataka above the national average. That, again, for the size of the state, is decent.
However, elections are rarely fought over long-term developments or achievements that span over decades. State elections are a mixture of caste, cash, and controversy. I don't want to say development does not matter. Because last state elections UP clearly shows us that development can have an outsized impact on election results. However, two of the biggest states in India, Maharashtra and Karnataka have an additional flavor of regionalism that impacts the government formation. In Karnataka, two national parties - BJP and Congress have a strong presence but the local, regional party of Janata Dal-United (JDU) has enough voters to preclude the formation of a single-party stable government. Though BJP came back to power as a single-party ruling party, it did so after splitting the Congress party. A similar situation is very likely to emerge during this election as well. As parties are fearful to lose even a single vote, they are going beyond any extent to please the voting bases. Reservations for Muslims?- Yes. CM from a particular caste? - Yes. Free power, water...you name and you will get it for free. And no party is opting out of this race to the bottom!
Another elephant in the room is corruption in the state. The proportion is staggering and it has made most of the people angry and nauseous. The city of Bangalore is suffering mightily because of rampant corruption in urban development and maintenance. The economic powerhouse with almost half of the state's GDP ($110 Billion against around $236 Billion) feels like it is on life support with municipality and state only working to siphon off as much money as possible. And no party is clean here. However, I see only BJP seriously trying to clean the house. And they are ready to take the risk of losing a few seats or even an election in the process. They have done so in MP before where one-third of sitting MLAs did not get the tickets and the experiment had been successful. Hopefully, they get similar success in Karnataka as well.
One thing for sure is that the results will have no bearing on the General Elections of 2024. The elections of the last decade or so have clearly shown us that voters differentiate between voting for the central government and the state government. There is a good chance BJP will lose the state but come 2024 and they are likely to get a good number of parliamentary seats from Karnataka.
However, if BJP does lose this election, the democratic index of India, per BBC and opposition parties, will suddenly see a surge. Secularism would win and at least, the state of Karnataka will suddenly become heaven of harmony, peace, and justice.
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