The General Election of 2024 - Making of Great Chivda!

For those who are uninitiated - Chivda is a mixture. The food is popular partly because you never know what ingredient you will taste next. In Maharashtra or among the Marathi people, it's also used as a euphemism for a mess.

And that's exactly what the current Indian political situation looks like. You never know what will happen next or who will speak what next. You also never know who is the Prime Minster candidate. The so-called 'Chanakya' of Indian politics has his party in tatters. He was supposed to be leading the opposition effort to bring down the Modi government. Now he is trying to count how many MLAs he is left with. In the confusion, he is making new and contradictory statements every other day. I don't know if he is confused or if he still thinks he is tricking others. As Lincoln (allegedly!) had famously said, you can some people sometimes but you cannot fool all people all the time! 

The situation with Congress is more perplexing. They just won the Karnataka state election. This should 'refill' their empty coffers (the state Deputy Chief Minister has already told everyone that there is no money left for development. One doesn't have to wonder where all money will go!). Yet, the party is acting as if they are a non-existent force. The party still commands a 20% vote share in the country and yet, they meekly capitulated to the strong-arm tactics of AAP and Kejariwal. It was astonishing to Congress agreed to AAP's demand of opposing an ordinance on the governance of Delhi, that was always going to sail through the parliament. Is there no one in Congress who thinks rationally, thinks about ROI, or thinks about the party's future? AAP has always eaten into Congress vote share. AAP has not been able to make any serious dent in BJP's vote share. By supporting AAP in their childish game against the Central govt., Congress has gifted their vote share in Delhi to AAP. (which in the short term and from the perspective of the Delhi assembly election scenario, is bad news for the BJP) But somehow, despite missteps after missteps, Congress believes they are the pole position around which all opposition parties of India should gather and fight against Modi govt. in the next elections? The think tank in Congress should get their heads checked because if two rupees worth of a blogger like me can see through this stupidity then I wonder what sort of knuckleheads are running the show in Congress! 

There are a host of regional ambitions running wild. Some have personal vendettas like Nitish Kumar who is running out of allies to backstab. Yet, he believes Modi is the villain here. Vendetta politics can get you returns in the short term but on a grand level like the Indian general election and over the long term, personal vendetta will lead only to disaster. Nitish has been CM of Bihar for almost twenty years and back in 2005, he was primarily elected to throw out the Laloo gang. It is rather sad to see him now joining the Laloo gang in his attempt to take revenge on Modi. How will that serve anyone? And most importantly, do these people think that voters won't see through this game? 

Then there is Mamta. She is ready to kill anyone who will voice against her. She has done that multiple times. The bloodbath after the last assembly elections in Bengal was so bad that even god-awful people like Rajdeep Sardesai had to acknowledge the violence. Unfortunately, her violent politics means she cannot get out of Bengal and set the national stage for her ambition. Yet, she believes she is or should be the kingmaker in the next elections. The largest party by seats in the 2019 general election was BJP with more than 300 seats and Mamta's party, which is the fourth largest party by seats, won 22 seats. BJP has a vote share of more than 37% while Mamta's party has a 4% vote share. The party is decidedly regional and still, Mamta believes she is a PM candidate. I don't know what is the thought process here but the mixture of ambition and personal rivalry seems to be at play. 

I talked about only some of the key actors from the opposition camp. There are a host of competing personalities and parties that are in play. All this drama but unfortunately, the sad reality is there is no true opposition. And a functioning democracy should always have a capable and thoughtful opposition. These parties are family-run fiefdoms who just want to survive at any cost. There is no vision, there is no new thought. It's just noise. And this is the best we will have to make do with. 

The Pawar, BJP and the Powerplay

To say no one saw it coming would be an exaggeration. The timing was a surprise but all dynastic or family-centered political parties are bound to go through the phase of rebellion. It is just natural. A family member is given precedence over another and the other decides to split. Sometimes the split is successful while for most purposes, the usurper is defeated soundly. The two Laloo brothers fought but Tejaswi, the first choice of Laloo, emerged a winner. Bal Thackeray chose his son over a potentially more deserving candidate - his nephew. The nephew has been in the wilderness since then. Similarly, Stalin soundly defeated his elder brother and has been running DMK since then. In short, it was a matter of time before NCP also goes through the split. The nephew here is much stronger when it comes to public support and he is a strongman as well. While the daughter has been getting elected as a Member of Parliament for decades now, her sway over the Maharashtra electorate has been mediocre at best. Sharad Pawar seems to have decided to throw his weight behind his daughter instead of his nephew. There is a bit more nuance here that is critical. The senior Pawar has not relinquished his power yet. He has not given reigns to his daughter. He is desperately holding on to the power as if his life depends on it. Even at this advanced age, senior Pawar wants to be the kingmaker. Perhaps, he took that moniker given to him a bit more seriously. 

Or Ajit Pawar saw the writing on the wall and decided to chart his path. The party has barely grown in the last two decades. Their vote share in MH has consistently come down since 1999. Their maximum seat winning was 71 seats out of 288 legislative seats. Unsurprisingly, the party recently got delisted as a National Party. With the rampaging BJP rushing ahead of everyone and the emergence of Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, now was the time for Ajit Pawar to branch out. Otherwise, there was a healthy chance of Ajit Pawar going down like Uddhav Thackeray. All these political equations make sense for Ajit Pawar and a good number of NCP leaders and MLAs. But does that mean BJP should take him under their wing? Politics is all about benefits and somehow, I do not see Ajit Pawar's defection helping BJP in any way. I foresee considerable headaches and concerns from within the party and most importantly, from the loyal vote base of BJP. 

Sharad Pawar has been playing games from the shadows for far too long. He hoodwinked BJP and Devendra Fadnavis in 2019. The move he made not only ensured Uddhav Thackeray and Congress joined hands with NCP in forming the state government but I am sure senior Pawar got a kick out of him landing a knockout punch squarely on BJP's chin. The party known for a multitude of leaders, think tanks, cadre based organizations was so summarily defeated in the game of politics that it won't be surprising if the party and especially, Devendra Fadnavis decided to make this personal. With retribution in mind, they helped destroy Pawar Senior's party from the inside out. Perhaps, the vote share will split further favoring BJP in the 2023 Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. Perhaps, the confusion may lead to further infighting in Congress, in Uddhav's Shiv Sena, and NCP leading to more seats for BJP. All that is possible but what if BJPs vote share comes down? Can that happen? Perhaps. 

This is simply because BJP has been projecting itself as the most non-corrupt party. There is an element of truth to that. Then BJP has been projecting itself as a political party that puts governance, development, and people's mandate above political slug-fest. They are the party that would not compromise on its principles and would even let go of power if needed. They have done that in the past. Those moves did not immediately bring them electoral benefits but that type of politics has gained them an extremely loyal voter base. Just look at the recent Karnataka Vidhan Sabha elections - the party's seat tally came down drastically but their vote share has not budged much. People who voted for them continued to vote for them. Another example is the Delhi Vidhan Sabha elections where BJP has barely any presence in the seat tally but their vote share has gone up in the last decade. All this is because of their fastidiousness with principles, ideology, and their capability to even let go of power for principles and ideology. And all this is no longer visible in the current scenario. 

NCP and associated leaders have been accused of massive corruption. I will provide only one example, Ajit Pawar, irrigation minister for over a decade, is infamous for irrigation project scams worth billions of dollars. The cases have been long pending with no end in sight. Similarly, in the social engineering space, NCP has amped up caste-based, anti-Brahmin tirade that has led to multiple cases of violence and in creating disharmony in the society. The party is known as a party of only one caste while not serving even that caste appropriately. The last home minister of the state, a leading figure of NCP, has been embroiled in an extortion scandal and was in jail for months. Another home minister from this same party was helming when the 26/11 attacks happened. The list of corruption scandals, insidious political games, and complete failure when in administration for NCP is too long. Yet, BJP believes that combining forces with NCP and with Ajit Pawar is a good idea. Have they lost touch with their ideals, with their voters, and with their beliefs? Please don't tell me that there are no enemies in politics. You don't have to be enemies but you don't have to be friends as well. Remember, birds of the same feather flock together. Is BJP changing its feathers? Because NCP or Ajit Pawar surely are not going to change theirs! 

As mentioned earlier, NCP has been fading for a long time in MH now. They would have ceased to be a political power very shortly. With a strong part of Shiv Sena already with them, the likelihood of the BJP winning a massive mandate in next year's Vidhan Sabha elections was very high. They may very well win the next election or even the next one after that. But in the long term this strategy will severely impact BJP. 

The Adipurush Effect

The recent release of Adipurush, a film based on Ramayana, is generating massive and frankly speaking, unnecessary controversy. Not surprising since the age we live in is an age of controversy. I have not watched the film but based on the trailer and other random clips, the screen looks shoddy, the actors are looking confused and the VFX is juvenile. The dialogues are also cringing. Overall, the movie seems to be a poor production. But since when did the poor quality of a movie become a controversy? 

From what I understand the director has not changed the story of Ramayana. There is still Ram, Sita Ma, and Laxman. The movie still has Hanuman and also has Ravan. The villain is still Ravan and the hero is still Shri Ram. Given the current discourse in the country, I am happy to take this. Now, if the story has not changed a bit, then we can love or hate the movie's quality. We can even laugh at the production. But there is no reason to get angry and upset about it! 

There has been a spate of Hindu world-centric movies in the last 3-4 years. Partially it's a reaction to the overtly attempted 'secularised' and 'urdu'isd' movies and partially, due to changes in the political environment that made it safe to make such movies. There was a movie on the Great Bajirao I. The movie quality, direction, and acting were quite good. Much better than the Adipurush. But to have Bajirao I dance with his soldiers was simply unthinkable. Here is a warrior who never lost a battle in the field. He roamed conquering regions from Delhi to Hyderabad. His name is synonymous with victory in Marathi and Hindi language. And then the director from the Hindi film industry had a creative epiphany in which, Bajirao would be dancing with his soldiers! Yet the movie was a huge hit. And that's a good thing. People had forgotten about Bajirao I. India, which Maratha ruled for almost 120 years, had lost the memory of the Maratha empire, of Maratha warriors. How do we get people to learn about the history? At least, the key events or key characters of the history? We can and should update the history textbooks. But what if we can tap into mass media and spread the message? That's where movies come into the picture. Whether one likes or detests Bollywood, they do have immense power over the imagination of vast tracts of our country. Their ability to influence tens of crores of people is unparalleled in modern India. So, having them produce a movie on Bajirao (or later a movie on Battle of Panipat) is only a win-win situation, the quality of the movie notwithstanding. 

Can we say that all presentations of Ramayana on big or small screens have been great productions? The Japanese anime presentation of Ramayana that came in the early 1990s was brilliant. But can we say the same thing about Ramanand Sagar's Ramayana? Sagar's Ramayana was right on time and was well- acted but as compared to BR Chopra's Mahabharata, Ramanand Sagar's Ramayana looked quite elementary. Yet we liked them all. That's because the original material, Shri Valmiki's Ramayana is just superb. The story of Shri Ram and Ma Sita is a story of human struggles, it's the story that perseverance, it's a story of following duty to the T. It's a story of love, lust, anger, triumph, and ultimately human tragedy. It's a story of standing tall despite suffering. In a month or so most of the population will forget about the Adipurush. However, the movie has brought back Ramayana in conversation. It's back on the center stage. It's back on people's minds, back in their imagination. People are looking for old clips from prior representations of Ramayana. People are again discussing Ramayana. Perhaps, we can all agree that the movie has achieved its (unintended!) objective already. 

The Kerala Story

I have not watched the movie. I am unlikely to watch it either. I did not watch The Kashmir Files either. The topics and subjects cut too close and hurt so much that if I watch the movie my rage will probably make me go insane. 

A bit of overreaction I guess. It's a movie after all. Movies always take artistic liberty and tend to paint the picture in a color that generally does not have a gray color. Unlike the gray area in that, most of these controversial issues reside. Or so the so-called liberals and rationalists would like us to believe. But then sometimes, the situation is so drastic, full of blood red that people then try to paint it gray. It is sort of a defense mechanism. Since, it is too hard to digest the bloodiness, hard to accept the reality, and hard to fathom the failure. Sadly, gray color or not, the reality does not change. The blood-soaked rice was forced on some people, Kashmiri Hindu women were raped and killed, and mutilated for being Hindu, the region of Kashmir was rinsed of Hindu presence, Hindu girls of Kerala were indoctrinated, converted to Islam, sold off to sexual slavery only because that's all that kafir Hindu girls deserves. And all this happened in the last 30 - 40 years only. In the age of TV, digital media, social media, and activism. This happened without any protest from Hindus despite the perpetrators doing all this without even an iota of shame. The Islamists of Kerala or Kashmir wanted more people to know this since they know the 'secular' governments of Kerala or Delhi will not do anything against them. In fact, in Kerala especially, the government will help them abduct, convert and sell Hindu girls. The Islamists wanted the limelight, they want to advertise. They want to spread the terror. They want to show their supremacy - "we will kill kafirs, rape their women, sell their children into slavery and no one can do anything. No one will dare touch us" 

I will not even talk about the visceral reaction from so-called secular, liberal, progressive people. In India, these labels are usually garb for being staunchly anti-Hindu. Never bother talking to these folks since they are already brainwashed. How are you going to make any sense to them or have a logical discussion with them when they don't own their mental faculties? They are more rabid, more fundamentalist, and more irrational than even the rabid, most fundamentalist, and most irrational Islamists of Pakistan! The reaction was expected. It made movies more popular. It led people to the theater. Both movies went mainstream and both became mainstream hits. I say, we should not engage these rabid secularists or liberals but we should let them shout shrill. 

But one key point I do not see discussed when people defend the movies or the subject is the historical precedence of Hindu genocide by Muslims in Kashmir or Islamic slavery of Hindus in Kerala. The tactics, the objective, the modus operandi, and the rationale behind it, are nothing new. Islamists and Muslims have been doing it for centuries. During the first onslaught of Islamic invasions in Sindh - they looted our temples, killed men in lakhs, destroyed cities, and sold Hindu women en mass. It is documented that they used to send 1/8 of women abducted for sex slavery, to their Caliphs in Arabia! Genocide had been common in Afghanistan and Pakistan for centuries. Take a look at the Hindu population in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan post-1947. Either Hindus were forced out, killed, raped, or forcibly converted without impunity in all these three countries. The Islamic supremacy and with that justification, the ability to unleash violence, met out sub-human treatment to Hindus has been a routine. The Godhra train burning? The massacres in Noakhli, WB during partition? The Mophala riots, rapes, and forced conversions of thousands in Kerala? The geography is different, the rationale is the same, the justification is the same, and the conviction is the same. "Hindu men are not men and so, Hindu women are fair game" "Kafirs do not have any place on earth" "Killing kafirs is a good deed" and "Raping Kafir women is ordained" One will not find any of this in so-called news articles, in so-called scholarly journals or for that matter even in public discourse. And that's the reason the Islamists get to kill, maim, rape, loot and destroy again and again and again! 

And yet, Hindus are the ones justifying the movie that shows the reality! And Muslims and Islamists cry, victims. Jihadis get the batch of secularists and Islamic terrorists are called martyrs. Unless the language does not change, unless we do not sugarcoat their deeds, unless we call a spade a spade, the situation will keep repeating. 

As it had been for centuries. 

The Great Karanataka Elections

The Karnataka elections are going to be outstanding. The state is one of the largest in terms of population, land mass, and most importantly, in terms of economy. The IT sector of India is synonymous with Bangalore. The state has been home to multiple critical central government institutions including defense and space organizations. The state is home to some of the iconic higher education institutions. The state has a rich history and heritage. The developmental indexes also generally put Karnataka in the upper bracket. For a state of this size, Karnataka's Human Development Index (HDI) ranks 11th in the country. The state is 5th in per capita income. The GDP is around $236 Billion, ranking them fifth in the country. The economy more than tripled in the last decade. I have traveled in northern Karnataka, traveled to and around Bangalore, south-western Karnataka (Coorg, Chikmagalur, etc. ), and west Karnataka of Tulu land, and the state infrastructure is visible everywhere. The poverty levels are low and per the statistics, around 13% population lives below national poverty. Most of the statistics on development have Karnataka above the national average. That, again, for the size of the state, is decent. 

However, elections are rarely fought over long-term developments or achievements that span over decades. State elections are a mixture of caste, cash, and controversy. I don't want to say development does not matter. Because last state elections UP clearly shows us that development can have an outsized impact on election results. However, two of the biggest states in India, Maharashtra and Karnataka have an additional flavor of regionalism that impacts the government formation. In Karnataka, two national parties - BJP and Congress have a strong presence but the local, regional party of Janata Dal-United (JDU) has enough voters to preclude the formation of a single-party stable government. Though BJP came back to power as a single-party ruling party, it did so after splitting the Congress party. A similar situation is very likely to emerge during this election as well. As parties are fearful to lose even a single vote, they are going beyond any extent to please the voting bases. Reservations for Muslims?- Yes. CM from a particular caste? - Yes. Free power, water...you name and you will get it for free. And no party is opting out of this race to the bottom! 

Another elephant in the room is corruption in the state. The proportion is staggering and it has made most of the people angry and nauseous. The city of Bangalore is suffering mightily because of rampant corruption in urban development and maintenance. The economic powerhouse with almost half of the state's GDP ($110 Billion against around $236 Billion) feels like it is on life support with municipality and state only working to siphon off as much money as possible. And no party is clean here. However, I see only BJP seriously trying to clean the house. And they are ready to take the risk of losing a few seats or even an election in the process. They have done so in MP before where one-third of sitting MLAs did not get the tickets and the experiment had been successful. Hopefully, they get similar success in Karnataka as well. 

One thing for sure is that the results will have no bearing on the General Elections of 2024. The elections of the last decade or so have clearly shown us that voters differentiate between voting for the central government and the state government. There is a good chance BJP will lose the state but come 2024 and they are likely to get a good number of parliamentary seats from Karnataka. 

However, if BJP does lose this election, the democratic index of India, per BBC and opposition parties, will suddenly see a surge. Secularism would win and at least, the state of Karnataka will suddenly become heaven of harmony, peace, and justice. 

Ta-ta, Bye-bye Rahul Gandhi

This is my third consecutive post on Rahul Gandhi. Either he has suddenly become smart or I should seriously start reading other and better things for new ideas. The second part may have some truth to it but Rahul has not become smart. Not by any measures. 

He is no longer a Member of Parliament. He does not lead the party, his family's fiefdom. At least, not officially. In short, he is nothing. At best, he is a former MP and the son of a current MP. He never held any position of responsibility in the government, nor did he ever hold any constitutional post. In short, he is finally, a Nobody! I don't think anyone saw this coming so drastically. At least, he did not see this coming. No one in his family, not since his Grandmother and his father, has ever faced any consequence of their actions. No consequences for their words, no consequence for their inactions. No consequence for their unhinged tirades. They managed to sink the grand old party of Indian politics and yet, they remain above everyone and managed to remain unscathed. 

Not anymore though. 

The cause of this downfall seems innocuous. So many have said so much worse than this. But the point is not exactly what he said. I mean, it is but to an extent only. There are so many layers to this issue. The utter disregard Rahul has shown to the public institutions, the political institutions, and the governing and law institutions so far that it was just a matter of time before something comes and levels him in a blow. Rahul tore an ordinance that the then Prime Minister of the country has himself passed. He did that in full public view. This was not his ordinance to trash. He had no locus standi to do that and yet, he did that because he knew nothing will happen to him. And that was true for almost a decade. 

"You can fool some people sometimes, all the people one time but you cannot fool all the people all the time" Abraham Lincoln (allegedly!) 

Rahul kept yapping his way around. He derided his underlings in his party, he derided his constituents. He derided elected officials. Nothing happened. So he got emboldened and he finally made a statement that can certainly be construed as a casteist slur. I do not believe he hurled a casteist slur. I don't think he is smart enough to know that Modi is a caste and that too a backward caste. But he did make that statement. A case was filed against him as criminal defamation. The criminal defamation law, a rather draconian law I must say, is one of the very few laws that politicians of all backgrounds. The law proceedings take place at a rapid pace. The defendant has to prove, rather convincingly that they did not mean personal abuse. But if the court sides with the accuser, then the defendant goes to jail straight up. The defendant can get out of this mess by publically apologizing. Kejriwal had to do that to Nitin Gadkari, who filed a criminal defamation case for Rs. 100 crores against Kejriwal. But Kerjariwal is a smart fellow, he publically apologized, learned his lesson, and moved on. Now he says all the bad stuff against everyone only in the assembly where one cannot be held in criminal contempt. 

Rahul did nothing of that sort. In fact, after making that statement in a public rally (the Congress party last time Congress won a Loksabha seat in Gujarat was in 2009!), Rahul increasingly went berserk. He openly questioned the Indian army during the Galwan crises, openly questioned the homemade Covid vaccines, openly questioned India's purchase of Rafale purchases and most recently, he publically questioned India as a country while singing peans about China. He went a step ahead and alluded that western nations should intervene in Indian democracy! 

All that finally caught up with him through that one funny-sounding statement he made in 2019. Forget about politics, the opposition unity, the pending elections, or the evolving election strategy of all the parties. Rahul is finally held responsible for his actions. And he is finally paying price for his crimes. And I will take that. 

I am happy!

A Manchurian Candidate

Despite the Congress party losing election after election and despite Rahul Gandhi himself losing the prestigious Amethi seat in 2019, I tend to write a lot about him about what he does and about what he said. It is evident that the party and the ideology if there was ever anyone, is rapidly losing ground across the country. The leadership, barring a few state governments, is completely a vacuum. The political strategy of the Congress party (and that of Rahul Gandhi) oscillates between a low-level theatrical production of absurdity to virtual political suicide over tone-deaf, political career-killing statements. It is hilarious and jarring at the same time. But just because Rahul's political stunts and Congress's political strategy always lead to meme fest does not mean both of them are not dangerous. They are dangerous. There is a reason the 'la Familia ruled India for decades. The party apparatus and family's tentacles are quite deep-rooted. It's like an iceberg where the dangerous nature of the Congress party and Gandhis is only 1/8th visible to the public. These people know the system well. Hell, they were THE systems at one point. Their corrupt and corrosive ways mean there an ecosystem, which immensely benefited under Gandhi's rule, will go to any extent to maintain the hold. Just look at Raghuram Rajan. Such a sad and drastic fall for a brilliant guy! 

The pattern that is evident from Rahul Gandhi is after a whirlwind of political 'activities' in India, he tends to run to a foreign land for vacation. Followed by the vacation, he goes on a rampage in criticizing and defaming India. The venues are some sort of think tank platform or questionable groups hosting him in top-end universities in western nations. First, there is absolutely no need to talk about your country's government in a foreign country. It is contrary to the expectation of an elected member of Parliament. Then why does Rahul Gandhi continue to do that? A key point to note here is, he is not bad-mouthing the Modi government only. He talks about democracy being dead in India. He talks about India's failure as a nation. He constantly talks about Muslim persecution in India. He talks about the economy failing, not having jobs, and in general, the country being in a state of anarchy. Why? Rahul is certainly not getting any votes in the UK or from Cambridge university. Moreover, with such talk, he will not get any votes in India either. Then why do it? 

Is it because his handlers would like him to do that? A Manchurian candidate? 

One of the key achievements and focuses of the Modi govt. since 2014 has been foreign policy. It is proactive, it is definitive and it marks India's entry as a mover and shaker rather than a meek follower. I know foreign policy does not change in a decade but a decade's worth of work is a start. Whether it is a covid shots diplomacy or Ukraine war or whether brazenly attacking Pakistan twice as a response, the Modi govt. wants the world to notice us, respect us, and ensure that our interests are taken care of as well. Foreign entities aren't going to simply allow this to happen. They will fight back and fight back through back channels. The way he builds an argument, it feels like Rahul is doing that at the behest of foreign entities. Either a foreign government or a spy agency or both. For example, remember the Chinese ambassador secretly meeting Rahul Gandhi at Rahul's residence during the height of the Galwan crisis? Rahul Gandhi never issued even a statement at that meeting. Yet, he keeps parroting that China has grabbed India's land despite categorical denial from the Govt of India, the Indian Army, and the PM himself! Now, who does that help? Psychologically speaking questioning the Indian Army or the Government of India will discourage Indians. It will give an advantage to China and Chinese psyops. Even two days ago he said Modi 'does not understand the threat of China'. Maybe, China does not understand the threat of Modi. Can we look into that? 

Asking questions to the elected government is a right and should be exercised but questioning the government institutions may not play out well in the long term since the erosion of public trust is the start of the unraveling of democracy. 

Western nations have always used the stick of so-called secularism and invented the narrative of Muslim persecution to defame India. Even though the Muslim population has only grown in India while the Hindu population has declined and Muslims have played prominent roles in modern India - from being top space scientists to be one of the most successful cricket captains to being the most successful Hindi movie star. And it's not just the narrative they leverage but they have created an ecosystem of NGOs, think tanks, newspaper publications as well as the 'scholar' tribe to browbeat the Indian government and policymakers to fall in line. The emergence of the Modi-led govt. is the first time since independence that the Government of India is standing up to the bullies from European Union and other western nations. India is the largest functioning democracy in the world. The word 'Largest' actually does not do the justice to stunning grandeur with which Indian democracy functions. There are fault lines and concerns but by far and large, Indians have heartily embraced the concepts of democracy. Yet, to constantly question the very ethos of Indians and India makes you wonder whether Rahul Gandhi is batting for foreign interests here. 

I strongly believe Rahul Gandhi is up to something here. He is a fool to believe that western powers will destabilize India and prop him up as a candidate. In the history of Western atrocities and colonialism, they have never done that. They are unlikely to do that now. The country of India is not that disunited or weak either to just let that happen. Not when the economy is booming and all indicators are pointing positively. That does not mean we should forgive Rahul Gandhi and his unhinged tirades against India. Technically he is merely an MP among 445 others. He has never held a position of responsibility in the Government. Nor has he ever passed any legislation. Rahul has missed most of his attendance in the parliament. Despite all this, his last name means he is still quite dangerous. He may not be able to sway people to vote for his party but he sure can sow doubts in people's minds. Rahul Gandhi, being the scion of once a ruling family, will be quoted across a multitude of mainstream publications in the western world. NYT for example recently published a rant against India on the topic of Kashmir. There will be some damage to India's reputation and India's aspirations. It is quite evident that Rahul is actually on Bharat Badnam Kao Yatra! 

Rahul Gandhi Ki Jai Ho!

It is always fun to watch Rahul Gandhi. He is not exactly a fool though he acts like one. He dances around with the words when it is fairly evident that he scarcely understands the words he utters. Rahul's political strategy is unhinged, lacks any cohesive direction, and is tone-deaf. The spurts of action followed by an extended holiday have been the only constant of his political career. Just look at the recently concluded, randomly named, 'Bharat Jodo Yatra'. With all the beard growing, Saddam looks led him to come back to barking about Adani only. He was shouting himself hoarse about Adani and Ambani before the 'Yatra'. Though he has conspicuously dropped Ambani from his accusations, it won't be long before Ambanis make a 'come back'. By the way, Rahul Gandhi was supposed to speak in terms of the President of India's speech at the start of the session. This was not meant to be an unhinged tirade against those he considers his enemies. Of course, decorum and responsibilities have never been his forte. He is also not in public talking about the recently presented Budget. The Budget of 2023 is the last of the major Budgets presented by the Modi government before the Lok Sabha polls of 2024. A budget in 2024 will be presented before the elections but it is likely to be a lame duck since the government elected post-2024 elections will surely make changes to it. Yet Rahul decides to skip the whole thing beyond giving some sound bytes? Sometimes I wonder if he is working for BJP. He is like a trojan horse of the BJP in the Congress camp. 

But I am here to make a point in favor of Rahul. I want him to succeed in his mission of Bharat Jodo Yatra. Bizarrely, Rahul is critical for the success of emerging India.  

In the last general election Congress party still held on to almost 20% of the vote share. These vote shares are scattered across the country. A key aspect to note here is that the vote share is for Lok Sabha elections. For example, Congress recently won the Vidhan Sabha state elections in Himachal Pradesh but in the last two Lok Sabha elections Congress has not won a single parliamentary seat. The state is a two-party state and Congress still holds almost 40% of votes in Lok Sabha elections. The state of Himachal is small but provides us with a good marker for the rest of the country. Though the vote share varies, the votes have splintered across the board. Congress is quite strong both in Madhya Pradesh and in Rajasthan but they have won exactly one Lok Sabha seat in the last two general elections. The party is completely decimated in UP and WB though. 

Now if Congress is to go down further then the vote share is up for grabs. There are always strong regional players like TRS in Telangana or CPI in Kerala or even, TMC in WB who will get stronger. Which means their regional arm-flexing will become more potent. New entrants - unsavory ones like MIM and awful ones like AAP will also find an opportunity in grabbing that vote share. We have seen that happening both in Delhi and in Punjab where Congress vote share en-mass moved to AAP. And Muslim vote share both in UP and Bihar partially deserted Congress and moved to MIM. These small regional upstarts are exceptionally myopic in their view and detrimental to the growth of our country. AAP, for example, has readily jumped into bed with Khalistanis to win the Punjab elections. Their pandering to Khalistanis will not only lead to bloodshed in near future but will create a national security threat for India. AAP's and specifically, Kejriwal's lust for power has no limits. He will go to any extent to win. He won't think twice before siding with Pakistan if it will get him a Muslim vote share. The only reason Kejariwal is not speaking on China's behalf is that China is currently in alliance with Congress and there is no space or money for Kejariwal yet. Similarly, the history of MIM is full of Islamic fundamentalism and anti-Hindu rioting. MIMs forefathers butchered Hindus during the anti-Hindu pogrom of 1948 while current leaders of the party, especially the Owais brothers have regularly threatened Hindus in public forums. They carry the flames of 'independence from Hindus' mentality. The political legitimacy they are vying for on a pan-India level is nothing short of a disaster for the country. 

Another key point to note here is, keeping Congress's vote share intact means total disruption in Opposition. The national-level outlook of non-BJP parties is somewhat hilarious. We have a bunch of thuggish, strongmen (and women!) like TMC, DMK, SP, and wannabes like TRS (though TRS is much better than most when it comes to the development of the state!). These parties know they do not and will not be able to have any sort of national imprint. Yet, they can all come together and elect a leader to represent them if they ever smell near victory in the general elections. Congress and especially Gandhis could never stomach a secondary role. If they are somewhat in a position of bargaining, they will either impose their will (i.e. Rahul) on the leadership or will disrupt the opposition unity. Any of these scenarios is critical for the BJP's success in 2024.

But why is it that only BJP should win in the next election? That's because they are the only national party left with some sort of sanity. Congress is rudderless and full of hubris. The regional parties are power-hungry, myopic (I said that before, didn't I?), without much of a national imprint. The reality is that there is nothing democratic about any of the regional outfits since most of them function like family-owned mafia businesses. If they come to power through coalition then Khuda Bachaye" Remember the mid-1990 era of IK Gujral and HD Deve Gowda? 

The charisma of Modi is not just intact but it has grown substantially since the last election. And at this point, his popularity and pan-India appeal rival only Indira Gandhi's peak in the 1980s. BJP also has built a strong cadre-based organization and exceptionally well-oiled election machinery. But Indian politics and voters cannot be taken for granted. The country is vast in every possible facet. The aspirations and the expectations are a web of contradiction. Balancing all of it is an incredibly tough task. Yet, Modi and BJP are somehow managing to do it for the last 9 years. There are some misses, some blunders, and some mistakes but overall the report card is positive.  And Rahul Gandhi is critical to India having similar positive report cards for next decade or so. 

The 'Reductive' India

The public discourse in India has gone down so drastically that even an innocuous joke can now invite a police complaint. And no I am not talking about the self-righteous, self-proclaimed, so-called woke, liberal 'artists' shouting murder, murder at every juncture. But at the same time, the so-called right-wingers going nuts over a shade of heroine's clothes (or lack thereof!) is stupifying. Just the way insulting for the sake of it should be condemned, taking insult literally at everything should also be ridiculed. The larger point here is Indians, including awful leftists and cranky right-wingers, need to chill, relax and take a deep breath. Keeping controversies alive is a hobby for some and for some, it's a money-making enterprise. I can assure you no satisfaction or no money will ever find its way to the agitators.  

Now before some numbnut self-styled liberal giggle at above, I positively believe we, as a country, have reached this point solely because of leftists and mindless west aping 'woke'. See, the righteous anger of right-wingers is somewhat understandable. They should not be so angry. But they are! These entrants to the 'club', labeled and lampooned as such by the so-called 'secular', 'liberal' mafia in India, feel cornered since their beliefs, their deities, and their views are regularly marginalized as a fringe. As Gandhi ji once said (or maybe he did not, I don't know!), the moment you are called fringe, you should know you have arrived. Instead of feeling confident and backing it up with more material, the so-called right-wingers lash out at everything and everyone. Sometimes, not responding or not agonizing over is the best response to an insult. An art lost to right-wingers. However, these new entrants to the insulted club have nothing on the old-school, backbenchers of the class - the woke liberals and the leftist mafia. 

These self-styled 'liberals' are truly the blue-blooded insult takers, the pioneers, the Firsts. They invented this profession and took it to dizzying heights. To be sure, their agendas are different. Lumping all of these creatures together will be a mistake. For the woke liberals, their agenda is a weird mixture of individual choices (basically only choices, no responsibilities. And only 'my choice' and no one else) and NGO-funded activities. These NGOs have become new-age WMDs. They work for church-funded anti-national agenda (see, church opposing Kumbakonam nuclear plant), they work for western power-funded objectives (opposing any sort of developmental project), and they work for the billionaire-funded initiative. They do not have any scruples about the objective. As long as money is flowing, they will go to any extent to destabilize the situation. And one of the key activities they do is rile up the 'liberals' at the slightest notion of a disagreement. The discussion ceases to exist and what is left is the muck of name-calling and shouting hoarse. Not all 'woke' are agents of NGOs. This group does have the truly stupid ideologues who do not have the faintest idea of reality. They think history is unidirectional with cascading effects on the present. History is a precursor of the present but it is multidimensional and multifaceted with actors impacting it from all directions. The moment you lose nuance on how it connects with the present is the moment you become a self-styled activist attempting to right the wrongs of the past. And unfortunately, the number of such crazies is increasing rather rapidly lately. 

The other part of these professional agitators (or as Modi ji rightly called - 'andolanjivis') are the original leftist and communist ideologues who have morphed into a multi-faced demon. They are still very much communists at heart but they have gone underground. They understand that the commie ideology is currently dead and there are no takers of it in India. But that does not deter them. These shape-shifters will latch on to any issue to constantly bombard their subversive messages. Whether it is a developmental project or a religious celebration, they howel at every juncture. Freedom of speech, a right that was banned in all communist states in the past, is a favorite bush they would like to beat around all the time. If you disagree with them, you are a right-wing, Hindu chauvinist, casteist, anti-Muslim fundamentalist. These adjectives can be a Ph.D. dissertation! If you ignore them, you are killing democracy. If you call out their lies and deceit then you are a facist. In any case, heads you lose and tails they win. Whether its nullification of Article 370, CAA or Indian Army's Agniveer scheme, each step towards betterment is opposed by these creatures. These elements are increasingly getting in bed with shady foreign organizations, biased and raciest news agencies (NYT and BBC!) to toe the interests of either European countries or China or worse, Pakistan. 

Creating controversy, riling up enough dust to obsecure the actual issue, creating enough anti-narrative lies to bury the nuansce is a modus operendi repeated ad-nausem in last 20 years. It's not that India did not face such vested interest before but this time the emerging narrative of India is truly not good for host of actors mentioned above. Though current government dispostion does not back down from the initiative and determined to push their a positive narrative, these leftis ideologues, woke liberals and religious fundamentals masquerading as secular are unfazed, deep pocked and equally determined. 

In grand scheme of things, I genuinely believe, these knuckleheads will be a mere footnote. But they certainly have killed humor and open dialogue in our public discourse. It will be sometime before we can laugh at everyone and at everything! 

It Is Not Just About The (Gujrat) Elections!

I predicted BJP will win Gujrat comfortably. I was probably one of roughly one billion people who predicted the win. However, the extent of the BJP's win still caught everyone off-guard. The party winning more than 150 seats in a Vidhansabha of 182 seats is truly astounding and without any precedence. Yes, the Communists in Bengal probably won with such a margin but then apples to oranges people...apple to oranges! 

The political pundits are having field day post results. The oneupmanship generally leads to rehashing, reusing, reiterating and repurposing the same points ad nauseam. At this point an AI bot can write a better analysis since it's only wordplay and word jugglery. BJP won because of Modi. Ok. They won because of Hindutva. Ok. They won because of the massive amount of money. Really? They won because of EC, EVMs, and everything in between is working for BJP. Got it. BJP won because of Majoritism. Isn't that a wordplay on Hindutva? BJP won because of AAP's fragmented anti-BJP votes. Ok. BJP won because the voters did not come out to vote. What? BJP won because Congress let them. BJP won because the party and the PM are always in electioneering mode. 

The list just goes on. Yet no political pundit ever delves into how hard it is to run for an election and run a campaign. Any sort of respect to the voters is virtually absent. No one thinks that maybe voters know the  better option and what is best for them. No analysis talk about the politicking that goes behind getting a ticket or giving a ticket, the caste equation, the gender equation, the religion equation, the booth level management, the list is long but true nature and true reasons for any win by any political party in any type of election can be found only in such details. In short, treat the analysis in NDTV or TOI, or Indian Express at par with Filmfare gossip column. 

For any political party, to win an election is an achievement. To win it consecutively is simply outstanding. It requires variety of factors to work in sync. It starts with a strong ideology and strong pride in that ideology. It requires strong leadership, a strong cadre, strong grass-root support, strong party functionaries, and strong election mechanization including exhaustive public outreach. It requires identifying long-term issues voters are facing and aligning these issues with short-term controversies to rile up the masses. It requires close alignment of the political party's long-term and short-term goals. It requires dropping some candidates and being ready for heartburn. It requires picking up new faces and betting on them. It requires media management. It's like an orchestra. And everything has to work just perfectly to produce a melody and not white noise. 

What political party has all the above? It's a rhetorical question. Only one political party currently checks all the boxes above and that's BJP. The other political party that comes a very distant second is the Communist Party of India (CPI). Though it's safe to say that CPI is so irrelevant that I will just stop my sentence here. Pretty much every other political party in India is a family-owned business. An overwhelming majority of these political parties are regional parties with regional ambition. The parties that are not a family business are a fiefdom. For example, AAP or JD(U). These two parties revolve around a single individual, a dictatorship. The party is likely to cease to exist in case if Kejariwal suddenly emigrates to the US or if Nitish Kumar suddenly retires. In any case, none of these parties have any ideology, any strong cadre beyond the state border, no developmental agenda or a national-level message, no governance to manage the party, no long-term goal beyond holding on to the power by any means. There is only so much controversy one can generate, there is only so much fooling one can do. As Lincoln famously said "You can fool some people sometimes, everyone one time but you cannot fool everyone all the time. 

If we apply above parameters to recent election results then suddenly the current success in garnering voter percentage BJP does not come as a surprise. I specifically called out voter percentage and not the seats won. For example, BJP's vote share went up only 3.5% in BJP but the seats went up by more than 50. While in Himachal Pradesh, BJP's vote share did not go down at all, yet, their tally of seats came down by quite a bit. The party is steadfastly working towards garnering the voting share and not just the seats since they know eventually, the voting share will increase their probability to win. The party has grown drastically in the last decade or so but it was the only one that has been growing since 1989. Their identity and ideology have not changed. Their election manifesto on key issues remains the same and their promises, whether on Hindutva or development, are also intrinsically same. Their cadre has remained strong and the party is run like a well oiled machine. The central leadership does have the last say over everything but the regional leadership still gets to shine brightly in their regions. They have short-term goals of winning, literally, every election in their stronghold but the long-term goal is to spread wings in the states where BJP is historically weak. For that goal, they are ready to invest time and money. They are investing in younger leaders and patiently waiting for them to grow in their shoes. Take the example of Tamil Nadu. Mark my words, BJP will be a force to reckon with in TN within this decade. 

Nothing lasts forever and BJPs success will not be an exception. Currently, most of the political parties are unable to counter BJP.  BJPs' greatest success won't be all the good work they are doing. It will be creating a credible political opponent that are similar to them with a strongly nationalistic ideology and with a progressive developmental agenda. 

The Iran Protest - Again?

Iran is witnessing another round of protests. These protests are not a novelty. They keep happening periodically. Imposing harsh lifestyle choices on the masses is a futile exercise. Sooner or later, the masses will simply move on. They move on peacefully or they may choose violence but the general masses will stop listening to the zealotry imposed through banality like dress code or food habits. In the case of Iran, it is enforced head-covering. The liberal Iranians are proud people. The pride comes from being an ancient civilization, from being an ancient land. Ironically, this pride and identity infect the Islamic fundamentalists of Ayatollahs as well. Though they consider themselves the vanguard of Shia Muslims, their confidence comes from the belief that they are an ancient civilization. 

In short, the two factions at loggerheads are deriving their 'strength' from the same source. What's more interesting is, this is the reason these two factions are confused with their objectives and tactics. 

The Hijab protests or any sort of anti-establishment protests are not new to modern Iran. This is the third one in the last 15-odd years. The protest of 2009 was quite big, quite international, and quite bloody. It was a student-led protest. Then the one five years ago was also very big. The rising petrol prices and subsequent inflation led people to respond with fury. And now, another protest is ongoing, started because the Islamist police brutally beat a woman in her 20s for not covering her hair correctly. The woman died shortly afterward from that beating sparking the uprising.Young people are throwing everything they have at the establishment and as much as I appreciate the bravery, it's simply impossible for them to break the wheel here. Revolutions do not succeed. Even with medium success i.e., it manages to overthrow the current establishment, revolutions usually unleash violence. And usually, the strongmen take over who are far from the ideals the original revolutionaries espoused. However, by then society is battered, bruised, and tired. It can no longer fight with the new entrant and the whole cycle begins again. This is what transpired during the 1979 Iranian Islamic revolution 

The revolution was a mixture of religious fervor, foreign-backed actors, young people drinking too much of democracy cool-aid, and foreign powers meddling in Iranian matters. Not all revolutionaries thought they overthrowing a system far more liberal than what is about to come. Not all revolutionaries thought they are overthrowing a stable monarch system that did not answer to the people with an opaque ruling class that will not answer to the people. The liberals wanted freedom, democracy, and modernity. As the struggle went on, these liberals who weren't necessarily atheists, tolerated fundamentalist theocrats around them. As Shah increasingly found himself in a precarious situation, the Islamic theocracy sensed the blood and pounced to grab the power. The western powers, always ready to meddle in Iran, immediately helped Khomeini to reach Tehran in style to complete the takeover. And the rest is history. 

Religious heads are not known to run good government or governance. Khomeini was certainly not the exception to this rule. The hijabs, the veils, the Islamic fundamentalism, the rabid theocracy, the out-of-date economic policy, overdependence on oil, taking up Islamic causes that do not help the country's self-interests, meddling in affairs of neighboring countries that, again, do not help the country in any sensible way, the list goes on. You have mullahs whose key objective is to ensure the religious supremacy of their faith. And if that is to be achieved at the expense of the welfare of people or the betterment of the state, then so be it. 

The liberals are completely lost at this point. They do not have any leader, no critical objective nor do they have any means to achieve anything strategically. Violence is probably not feasible against the state machinary when even a peaceful protest is met with state violence. Their only hope is that the so-called hawks in the US ruling class will lead to a war on Iranian Mullahs. Suffice it to say, it's foolish to believe the US ruling class is anybody's friend. This brings us to these widespread protests that bubble up every few years. These protests follow a pattern. The protests achieve a great success in the beginning, the international press gets more excited and with the rise of social media, every bozo with zero knowledge of ground reality starts hashtagging. Everyone talks abou thow the demise of Khomenis is just around the corner. Every analyst lists out reasons on how this protest is different than the one before. But protests need to achieve its objective in short period of time otherwise it fizzles equally quickly. Protests is not a natural state of any society. All previous Iranian protests fizzled out in a similar fashion. The Mullahs and the police state only has to wait it out. I believe the current protest is nearing its natural demise as well. It's almost time to get back to status quo. The liberals will be beaten down again. 

It's not that Khomeini-inspired revolutionaries are clear in their vision. They are clear about their identity - a religious dogma upholding Shia fundamentalism. Unsurprisingly they think their religious fervor has any value in world affairs. No one cares about their religious beliefs. In this age of capitalism, these Mullahs hold very little capital to matter anything worth the salt in the world affairs. So the Iranian Mullahs resort to counter-productive statecraft such as supporting and funding the violent organizations in Palestine. They consider themselves children of the elite Persian past with illustrious long history and culture that ought to be spread across the world. When the reality is their geopolitical ambition is checked right at their border by Pakistan, Saudis, and Turks. The Sunnis, within the Islamic world, do not particularly like them. No one beyond the Shia world cares about the Iranian past or history. In a perverse way, their prized possession and a potential power of strength - larger reserve of oil and gas, actually attracts all sorts of wrong attention from western capitalist vultures.  All this makes their situation precarious at best. Yet they soldier on. 

The benefit of being a religious zealot is the ability to persevere one own's stupidity. 

Where does this leave Iran and Iranians? For now, nowhere. The status quo will be maintained. World affairs and world powers do not have any appetite for another wild card change in the middle-east. The Ukraine conflict already has impacted the global economy. So, concerns for Iranian stability cannot be afforded. If the protests are to continue and gain further momentum, international forces will help the regime to crush the dissent. The strait of Hormuz has to stay calm and quiet at any cost. 

Unfortunately, innocent young lives are already lost in this protest. And more deaths are likely to happen in near future. Let's hope in the long run these deaths help Iranians to free themselves from the clutches of ruling Mullahs. 

The Incoming Tsunami of State Elections.

The State Elections heat is gradually rising. First, we have Himachal Pradesh followed by the prestigious Gujrat elections. Next year will see critical elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Chhatisgarh, and Telangana. The political games, controversies, accusations, and rebuttals will all rise to a deafening crescendo soon. And it should be. These successful elections are the hallmark of our democracy, the badge of honor for our country. 

Each of these elections throws different problems and scenarios. Indian electorate does not necessarily vote in tandem for State and Central elections. For example, Delhi overwhelmingly votes for AAP in state elections while votes for BJP in its entirety in the Central elections. Madhya Pradesh and Gujrat strongly back BJP in both Central and State elections. Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh always witness a tight and seesaw race between BJP and Congress over the last couple of decades. In Rajasthan, BJP and Congress are changing seats every other election. 

Karnataka has a unique situation. It's the only southern state where BJP is quite strong. At the same time, it's one of the rare states where Congress is also quite strong. The regional party Janata Dal (U) has a sizable vote bank as well. This trifecta tussle gets real in Karnataka. The state of KA is a prosperous and industrialized state with a rich history. The caste equations, the defections, and the religious divide all play a big role. Corruption somehow is not a big issue that speaks volumes about the 'incorruptibility' of political parties! If I predict, I believe the election results will be between Congress and BJP. The JD(U) will melt away. However, there will not be a clear-cut majority giving rise to the potential for either horse trading or defections. In any case, 

Madhya Pradesh has been a BJP bastion for more than 20 years ago. People of Madhya Pradesh faithfully elect BJP at State and Center (except for the one seat of Chhindwara). I believe that trend is likely to continue. There is no regional party in MP and Congress has increasingly become irrelevant. The infighting allowed one of its senior and young leaders to leave the party couple of years ago. Which led to the fall of the Congress State Govt that they unexpectedly won in the last State Elections. And since then Congress is simply coasting without any thought of reaching any destination. This means people are left with no choice but to vote for BJP. Plus, BJP has done quite a bit of developmental work in MP. They should win the election on the merits of work completed rather than because of the disarray of Congress. 

BJP is likely to win comfortably in Gujrat. The state has been a solid backer of the BJP for more than 25 years now. The situation is unlikely to change this time. The party probably felt overconfident last time and got a bit of a rude lesson from the electorate. This time it is very evident that party leadership is all in and working very hard from top to the bottom. Plus, Congress, instead of building on last election's win, has squandered away everything. Even one of Congress's firebrand leaders - a new entrant to the party, was left in the lurch, leading to his defection to BJP. The only question that remains is how big will BJP win this time. Will it break Modi's decisive 2007 election? 

Rajasthan is the polar opposite of Gujrat. The Congress has maintained its stronghold through Chief Minister Gehlot. Though there have been rumors of Searching Pilot breaking away, nothing has materialized so far. I don't think Pilot has enough ground-level support to rebel but he has enough to cause headaches for Congress internally. BJP on the other hand is not a united house in Rajasthan. The former Chief Minister is not entirely on board with the powerful Central govt. party figures. Though nothing has come out in the open the seesaw trend that was witnessed in RJ in the last few elections may not happen this time. It will be a tight contest with some hope for BJP to form the government again. 

Whatever may be the results, the so-called political commentators will jump to the conclusion about the Loksabha elections in 2024. If BJP wins big in all four states then they will conclude that Modi is winning with a thumping majority in 2024. And even one loss will be projected as the end of the Modi era. The reality is fairly clear even in 2022. Notwithstanding all state elections - the Modi government is coming back with another massive mandate in 2024. That is a certainty. 

The Boycott Business or the Business of Boycott?

Boycotts have been the flavor of the month lately. Especially when it comes to the Hindi film industry. Even British colonists did not have to bear the wrath of boycotts as Bollywood is currently facing. But let's not get carried away here. Boycotts' impact will be limited in terms of revenues and will have an expiry date. The reality is that Indian moviegoers care only so much about boycotts beyond a certain point. The moviegoer will not be missing out on a good movie because of #trends on Twitter. Case in point - the movie Dangal. It is the same Aamir Khan of Lal Singh Chaddha and he had already made a lot of controversial statements, yet the movie was a blockbuster. It made hundreds of crores in India and then crossed the border into China to make a few hundred crores again! 

But these boycotts are necessary and were long coming. Good to see the arrogant Bollywood facing the consequences of their actions. It's already unfortunate that Hindi movies, for most purposes, debase the art of storytelling and narration. On top of that, these entitled brats venture into social and political issues with incredible tone deafness and ride the horses of stupidity sermonising 'India' on what's what. I am all for actively participating in social and political issues but instead of leveraging their status in society to enrich the debate, they purposefully stroke the controversy. 

Let's go into a bit of detail here. Bollywood has increasingly been funded by unknown sources. At least since the late 90s. Many believe that the Mumbai underworld funds the movies as a way to profiteer but also to launder money. And since money is flowing from anti-national sources, it is obvious that the agenda will also be set by them. Though they are not brazen enough to paint India as a villain, they try. As part of the soft agenda, Pakistan is increasingly shown in a positive light, and Pakistanis are painted as good people. (Latest, Lal Singh Chaddha) Indian army is shown as either neutral or from the perspective of Pakistanis. (Main Hoon Na, Haider) Politicians are painted badly but then only Indian politicians are painted yellow. (Kashmir File) Similarly, only Hindu fanaticism finds prominent mention while Islami jihad and terror are expertly shown as victimhood. (PK?). The list of agenda-driven, narrative-setting, and biased movies is long. Shahrukh Khan pontificates in Main Hoon Na about Humanity and war crimes where an ex-Indian army man is shown as a war criminal while in reality, it is the Pakistan army that has repeatedly resorted to war crimes against the Indian army. The movie was superhit though. Why? The subtlety was not lost on the Indian audience but till the very recent past, they simply did not care enough. The aforementioned movie had great songs, good comedy, a decent plot and of course, movie had a superstar as a lead!

However, the situation started changing with the advent of social media and with the rise of the Modi-led BJP. The dissenting voices against such Hindi movies grew bold since they knew they won't be ignored and they won't be 'taken out by either the Underworld or by the state machinery ruled by non-BJP governments. They found an audience who were either clueless about the subtle narration or just needed someone to lead them. The dissent was earlier ignored, then ridiculed and when the impact was hard to miss, it was branded as fascist. The reality is that Bollywood is no longer immune to a backlash. It is no longer a one-way street of portraying stories to their whims and fancies. It is no longer the discretion of a few producers and directors to set the anti-Hindu or anti-India agenda. It is no longer acceptable to defame one religion just so that they can capture the movie-going market of Muslim countries. The audience will be calling this bluff and will ensure the impact is seen in the bottom line. 

As if this was not enough, South Indian movies started making inroads into the Hindi belt. Telugu or Tamil movies are abashedly Hindu in outlook and do not hide or defame their faith for the sake of secularism. The production quality and storylines were much better than the majority of the Hindi movies that came in the last decade. The South Indian movie producers astutely collaborated with Hindi movie distribution houses, which ensured same-day release in Hindi. I believe this strategy is adopted by the massive budget Hollywood movies. 

The twin shock meant that big-budget Hindi movies took one after another. Old stupid utterances and old tweets defaming Hinduism or Hindu sensibilities by anyone involved in the production of the big star movies were dug out and became a war cry. The right to speech is for all. If one is free to defame then others have the right to protest. 

However, I don't see this trend of boycotts surviving for too long. It's a legitimate dissent but it is a leaderless movement. Such movements cannot hold for too long since people have work to do. Also, since it's leaderless the agenda is set by everyone. So, everything will be in line for boycott and that means, the boycotts will soon not work for anyone! Sooner or later, a superstar and a good director will make a good movie. Someone will attempt to boycott it and the boycott will fail miserably. After that, the boycotts will be boycotted since they will no longer be taken seriously. 

Though the boycotts will lose steam, the impact of this people-led movement will be everlasting. 

The Catch-22 - Corruption, Politicians and Indian Voters

One of the key complaints I had about the Modi government was that it is not inclined to pursue the corruption scandals from the UPA era. Be it the coal scam or the 2G Spectrum scandal or even the Karti-PC Chidambaram scandal, Modi Government's first term came and went without anything useful being attempted. This does not diminish any of the Modi government's other achievements. But Indian voters were tired of numerous scandals by the UPA government. The Manmohan government is likely to go down as the most corrupt government in the first 75 years of Indian independence. And that's why Indian voters overwhelmingly voted for Modi and BJP in 2014. Naturally, the expectation, then, was government to prosecute the corrupt officials and politicians from the UPA era. 

But that is not how it happened! There are two key reasons that the Modi government could not and would not go after the corrupt. One is the corruption and ineptness of the judiciary and by association, of prosecution agencies. And second, the common Indian voter's fickleness. On one hand, the voters would like to put corrupt politicians on trial but on the other hand, they may very well change the tunes and feel that the government is persecuting the opposition for political benefit. And, then vote for the corrupts. 

This sort of sorcery has happened before! 

Let's look at the first point. The Indian justice system in its current avatar does not have much to do with the 'Justice' part. Whimsical in nature, lethargic in action, and corrupt to the core, the institution seems to be interested in maintaining the British era decorum rather than dispensing justice. A self-serving institution that likes to pontificate from the perch, and readily cries victim while holding power without any sort of accountability. The process of getting justice is a sentence in itself for both the accused and accuser. The system has completely forgotten, perhaps willingly, that the purpose of justice is not only to ensure honesty and law abidance in the society but dispensing justice on time is critical for the survival of the society itself. All these issues and concerns about the justice system are most evident when it comes to prosecuting politicians. Most of the accused politicians are on bail, which gets granted more generously than the 'Prashad' at any local temple. Cases run not just for years but decades. When there is no fear of the justice system, the law becomes optional and it is treated merely as a minor inconvenience. Just look at the percentage of MPs and MLAs across the country with criminal past. To be honest, I am okay with this category. What we should be looking at more closely is politicians without any sort of prior criminal past who are now accused of criminal enterprise. This category is worse since they became criminals after attaining the legislative power, essentially giving them power over the law system as well. In such a situation, even if the Government wants to prosecute the criminals, how is it supposed to do it? One sitting Judge of Delhi HC gave bail and anticipatory bail 16 consecutive times to P.C. Chidambaram in various criminal cases lodged against Chidambaram. 16 consecutive times! That same judge also acquitted all accused of 2G spectrum. Should government even waste time and resources in prosecuting Chidambaram then? Also, during the long-drawn court proceedings, the political career and political prowess of the accused do not diminish at all. Most of such accused leverage the situation to advertise their brand and project themselves as a victim of malice!

Now, the second issue is a bit tricky. One can argue that the general populace tends to forget the criminal enterprise of the politician because it's not their job to convict the politicians. But in a sense, it is their job. But let me come to that point a bit later. Let's see how prosecuting a politician boomeranged in the past. Indira Gandhi was accused of massive corruption during the Emergency period. The next government, the Janata Party coalition, decided to pursue the cases. And even though there was no 24 hours news cycle in that era, the process to go after Indira Gandhi became quite a spectacle. And guess who emerged 'victorious' from this episode? The Indian voter not only rejected the Janata Party coalition but backed Indira Gandhi so strongly that in a subsequent election of 1984, the Congress Party managed to win the highest number of Lok Sabha seats ever won by any political party before or since. 

Given how Indira Gandhi was rewarded for her corruption by the Indian voters, which politician in her right mind would even bother to make corruption the key agenda? Let's look at it this way. Think of politics as a corporate where politicians pursue their careers. Their clients are Indian voters. They try to sell a vision or an agenda to garner votes, which gives returns to the politicians through legislative seats or government ministry. Politicians have realized that going after corrupts not only not gets corrupt convicted but gives additional political milage to the opponents. And if Indian voters do not value their votes enough to not vote for the corrupt, why would politicians care about corruption? They will create a system that whoever wins will get to eat the pie and if the opponent ever wins he/she will have a tacit understanding of not going after the prior establishment. 

The arrest of Indira Gandhi did not lead to her conviction, the cases in the Courts continued aimlessly and police and other law agencies essentially gave up on being the 'law' agencies. Indira Gandhi emerged unscathed and then proceeded to institutionalize the corruption. She managed to build a corruption pyramid where she and her family are perched at the top while the money made its way to them from the bottom up. Almost 40 years since her death, we are still struggling to deal with the corruption model that emerged from the Indira Gandhi era.

Modi government to their credit did quite a bit on the corruption front. There has not been a single financial corruption scandal or even an accusation against any of the Modi government ministers in the last 8 years. It's a grand achievement in itself. But the government also worked hard to close the avenues and opportunities for corruption. No central minister gets files at home. All Babus and Minister have to show up to the office and files are to be kept in the offices only. DBT, Aadhar card, and UPI killed mid-level corruption which used to impact the common man the most. Big ticket defense items such as Rafael jets acquisition were done at the Government level instead of through a middleman. GST and updated Income Tax procedures also took away a lot of avenues for corruption. The government also tried to shake the justice system - whether forcing the system to leverage more technology or attempting to insert some transparency and accountability in the selection and elevation of Justices in the courts. All this is good but as I said at the start of this blog, the Modi government was voted to go after the Chidambaram and Raja of the prior government. And we are still waiting for that movie to start.  

The government did try to go after Chidambaram, the chief architect, and kingpin of the numerous UPA era scandals. But apart from Chidambaram spending a few nights in Tihar, nothing substantial came out of that case. But 3 years since the start of the second term, the government is showing signs of going after the head of the corrupt snake. The apparent resolve can be because of multiple reasons. The opposition is scattered and does not pose any grand challenge. Congress is politically marginalized (they currently rule only two states on their own) and Gandhis are increasingly becoming irrelevant. From an electoral politics perspective, going after Gandhis will not lead to any voter backlash. Or it may very well be that prosecuting agencies finally have everything they need to put at least two of the Gandhis behind bars for a good long time. Remember, Al Capone was never convicted of bootlegging, extortions, or even murders. He was taken down for measly tax concerns. Similarly, it's hard to prosecute Gandhis for any of the frauds they committed when they ruled the country. It is also almost impossible to prosecute them for all the anti-national activities they did. Hence, the prosecution is going after them for the frauds they committed at their level. The frauds like National Herald are shockingly lazy. I think they never thought anyone will dare to prosecute them. The hubris had set in by 2014 and hopefully, that will be their undoing. I also don't think the government will be going after small, figuratively speaking, fishes. The A Raja will go free. But if Gandhis are taken down, it will set a good example for future generations that no one is immune. 

Whatever may be the case, it's heartening to see the Modi government trying to do one more thing they promised. 

Better late than never! 

Indo-Pak: The story of the Hyphen

Lately, I have been noticing a theme on the NDTV news portal where there always a random quote from some Pakistani player is presented as news. It's not like India is playing Pakistan.  Yet, day after day, "Babar said this about Virat Kohli". Now I don't know who Babar is or why he is talking about Virat Kohli. But the most important question is why NDTV has decided to put what Babar has to say on their front page. Then today I noticed two articles in Indian Express. One is about how "Gavaskar, Bedi ...... kept the Indo-Pak hyphen alive" Interesting. India and Pakistan last played a full bilateral series in 2007. That was 15 years ago. Then I noticed another article in Indian Express - this time about new podcast series that connects, and I kid you not, cultural connect between India and Pakistan. I suppose the worse thing than having this emerging pattern of positive news about Pakistan is to have a podcast that talks about the cultural connection between India and Pakistan! Couple of important questions to ask here: Who is planting such news? And, Why?

There's an assorted group of activists, politicians, and academics who continue to peddle the lie that Pakistan is our long-lost brother. That, Pakistani suffer equally from the inept bureaucracy and corrupt political class. And, and this is where it gets nauseating, India should continue to have brotherly feelings towards Pakistan, and continue to maintain cricketing and cultural ties. Somehow this cabal never allows counterarguments and never allow debates on this topic.

Pakistan has been an abysmal failure on all fronts. A cancerous terrorist nation that has not only supported and trained violent Jihadi mindset against India and the rest of the world but has also subjugated and terrorized its population. Such failed nations generally become irrelevant in the world and cease to be a cause of any immediate concern. But Pakistan is unlike any of the other failed nations in the world. A nation born out of massive bloodshed, built on the foundation of religious extremism and zealotry has found a unique formula to bed with world powers for its survival. The concept of a nation, national identity, welfare of citizens, etc. are long forgotten and what is now left is the enrichment of the Pakistani political and military class. It's not like only politicians and military leaders are to be blamed for this sorry state. The common Pakistani has antipathy towards non-Muslims in their own country. They also have deep-seated anger and hatred towards India for being Hindu. They readily voted, when allowed, for politicians who failed in building a nation but readily provided framework for hatred towads India and towards Hindus. The politicians played a crucial role in developing an India-hatred-centric worldview as a cornerstone of domestic and foreign policy. 

India has its share of problems but no country in the world, barring China, has pulled hundreds of millions of people out of abject poverty in the span of few decades. India has become the third largest economy in the world from a PPP perspective and the fifth largest economy from a GDP perspective. While Pakistan's economy is comparable to Mumbai's economy. The hyphen in Indo and Pak does not exist. There is simply no comparison between India and Pakistan in any shape, way, or form. In every facet, India and Indians have continued to work hard and continued to excel while Pakistan is known as a hideout place for Osama bin Laden. 

Yet, the self-styled woke liberal, secularist mafia attempts to compare every issue in India with Pakistan. We can keep aside the foreign-funded talking heads or academics (aka Amartya Sen, Raghuram Rajan) who have a vested interest in keeping the hyphen alive. The rest genuinely believe in the hyphen for two reasons. One is deeply personal - the space this cabal occupied gave them lots of opportunities for government funding and government-appointed jobs. The macabre of peace candle-marching gave them national and international attention in the media. Second, these people may have fooled themselves into believing the utter nonsense that Pakistan wants peace with India. Delusion comes in various forms. And love for Pakistan and peace with Pakistan is one such hashish-level potent delusion. By the way, these people and tendencies are amply nurtured by Pakistani interests through various means. They know the advantages of keeping Indian strategy and political class soft towards Pakistan. They know they can virtually get away with anything - land grabbing, intrusions across the border, bombing civilians, and sending AK-47 armed terrorists onto Mumbai streets. 

And it seems those delusions are rearing heads again. They may be too afraid to come out outright. Modi govt. has done a great job in burying the hyphen. The govt. has acted strongly against Pakistan, shunned them, and showed them their place. Though we cannot wish them away, we can certainly act from the position of strength and power. Modi govt. has done exactly that. Which lead to the suffocation of the pro-Pakistan lobby in India. Especially since the Balakot attack, this lobby has kept it very low. But they were down, not out. And through this innocuous news, they are attempting a comeback. NDTV is a great vehicle to sow distrust and spread misinformation. Cricket gets everyone's attention. Hence, this daily news is about Paki players' opinions about Indian cricketers. It's an attempt to show how Pakistanis are similar to us, how they are a cricket-loving, peaceful nation like us. It's an attempt to not let Indians forget about this Islamist jihadi nation that given a chance will destroy India in a heartbeat. 

Let's see whether this strategy succeeds. The political scene has changed quite a bit in India. The ambiguity towards Pakistan has gone down. Being a pro-Pakistani peace activist does not pay anymore. I mean, literally, it does not pay at all. The ED raids on Kashmiri terrorists fronts, on NGOs etc. is paying dividends. But I will still be wary. Pakistanis has time and again proved to be masters of survival. And maintaining the hyphen is one of the critical aspect of their survival. The only way India can decisively destroy this hyphen by completely dismantling Pakistan. It's not as audacious as it sounds. It's doable. But should it be attempted? 

End of Family Run Political Parties?

 **Long post alert**

The recent political developments in Maharashtra are not surprising. It was always a matter of when rather than if. The government was based on political backstabbing, political brinkmanship, and political self-interest. Which, in politics, is all fair. Just to refresh the memory of the reader – in the 2019 State Assembly elections, BJP allied with Shiv-Sena (SS). There was ample evidence for BJP not to do so. They were in the pole position in the state politics and SS was increasingly acting erratically. Yet, BJP, for old times' sake, allied. As expected, the alliance romped home with BJP winning staggering 105 seats out of 150 odd seats they fought for. While SS win managed to win only 55 out of 100 odds they fought for. The logic dictated that BJP would have the CM, which was also the case in 2014 when BJP won more seats than SS. However, SS had a different idea this time. They started claiming the Chief Minister position despite being the junior party in the alliance. A variety of political gimmicks happened in the ensuing months. During the post-election results time, BJP, even with public mandate firmly on their side, continued to blunders after blunders. The PR was a disaster, the political maneuvering was short-sighted, and it was evident that BJP is increasingly getting checkmated by SS, NCP, and Congress. 

And again, despite having a public mandate against them, the unholy alliance of SS, NCP, and Congress formed the government with SS managing to get the long-sought thrown of CMship on its head.

All is fair in politics and love. For the first time in the Modi-Shah era, BJP found itself politically outclassed and outthought. It happens!

The government formed through all this was always on shaky ground. The unfortunate electoral of MH now had to deal with Congress and NCP which they overwhelmingly rejected and also have a CM who was inept, inaccessible, and with zero administrative experience. The man did not even contest a single election in his entire life and was so scared of facing people that he chose the safe route of MLC to enter the assembly. The result of the administration was disastrous, to say the least. The government was as always on the brink of collapse and at the same time, stumbling from one controversy after another. Bad handling of Covid, corruption charges of staggering proportion, law and order situation with Hindu-Muslim riots, caste politics rearing its ugly head, the problems were unending. The state’s home minister was caught in a bribery scandal and is in police custody for months now. Another minister is caught in money laundering for a Karachi-based underworld. And that very minister’s son-in-law spent one year in jail for drug cartel business. Then there was a bomb-laden car parked in front of India’s richest family’s house and subsequently a dead body of that car owner floating in Mumbai creek. The stench of all this was unbearable. The development projects had either stopped or were moving along at a crawling pace. Surviving all these scandals, perversely, can be considered a success.

During this time, BJP unleashed its political machinery in Madhya Pradesh, wresting control of the state government. They attempted similarly in RJ, barely losing. They fought a bitter and bloody battle in West Bengal against a bloodthirsty megalomaniac. They regained the Karnataka government and gave a bloody nose to the ruling dispensation in Municipality elections in Hyderabad (almost 30% of Telangana’s electorate is in Hyderabad. Hence the heightened significance). They dominated UP, Tripura, and Goa state elections, forming a clear majority government in all. All this while people of MH continued to wait for their turn. Marathi people were confused about why BJP is playing the ‘lost cause’ card in the state. Why no ‘Operation Lotus’ in Maharashtra. Did BJP just give up on the state? Are they biding time and preparing for the next elections? More importantly, why are they letting people suffer for electing BJP to power and not seeing BJP ruling the state?

Well, BJP hadn’t given up on the state. They weren’t biding for time nor were they waiting for the next elections. They decided to go to the root of the problem, Chanakya style. The current crisis, if we can call it such, is changing political alignments in MH for good. It’s a bold attempt to take care of the issue once and for all. It’s an attempt to put a full stop. Once and for all

The way SS was acting since election results smacked the political etiquette. The boorish and unhinged behavior of the party spokesperson was surely infuriating. There was no rudimentary political respect given to anyone and the barking at everything was nauseating. However, the reality was SS enjoys sizeable political clout in Mumbai, the Konkan region, and north Maharashtra. The party never grew after initial years but they still managed to hold onto roughly 55-60 seats out of possible 288 seats. In 2019 elections, they also had 16% of electoral votes. The NCP also managed to hold on to roughly the same seats and about the same % of electoral votes. That left Congress votes as a pasture for plundering. Even with a hypothetical scenario of all Congressi votes (About 15% in 2019 Assembly elections) going to the BJP, which will never happen, BJP is likely to be still short of the majority. They are the single largest party in MH, with twice the number of seats as its closest rival, but still short of an absolute majority by a decent margin. Their only possible target was to go after SS voters. The ideology was intertwined, yet the strong regionalism that SS voters display is likely to hinder such vote transfer. The way SS leadership and spokesperson were behaving, allying with them again increasingly seem to be implausible.  What is the way of this weird deadlock? Losing MH and being passive, aka Bihar was never an option after the 2014 elections. The state is too important in every sense. Another key characteristic of MH politics is - it is probably the only state where every major political party is right of the center. 

This is where the long game that’s currently unfolding comes into play. The way forward was to have SS become the SS that works with BJP. Keeping SS intact to the extent possible where the regionalist aspirations of the certain populace are not subsumed, the over-the-top Hindutva identity of the SS is still proudly presented and all this is to be done without impacting the pan-India Hindutva identity that BJP has been building for decades now. Splitting the party will only lead to further acrimony within the SS cadre and will potentially still leave Thackey’s to do enough electoral damage and worse, potentially further splinter the Hindutva-leaning vote bank. So, the only way forward was to keep SS intact and surgically remove the Tharckeys from the equation. This was an unthinkable and laughable proposition even a month ago. Yet BJP pushed for this. The key reason is being SS MLAs realize their chances of ever getting reelected are increasingly getting dim. They realize the ground pulse is not in favor of SS. Yet, they are not in a position to challenge the Thackrey’s. Unless the revolt is so absolute that the party stays intact and only Thackrey’s gets transferred out with a one-way ticket. This fight ceased to be about forming the state government but more about realigning the arithmetic where the Hindutva vote bank come together to fight the casteist party like NCP or a Muslim party like Congress. 

This is a bold and audacious plan. I don’t know whether it will be successful. So far, it’s pointing in the direction of complete success. But I don’t think this was ever attempted before, especially in the case of regional parties. All regional parties in India are family-run affairs with a charismatic leader who bought the party up. The control these families have over the party is absolute and going against them is a political death sentence for the rebel candidate. However, if the plot in MH succeeds then it will create a blueprint for the future and will have the potential in impacting various regional outfits like TRS, BSP, SP, and TMC. The political crisis in MH is not limited to MH alone. The repercussions will be felt across the country.

Eagerly awaiting to see how it pans out.