The recent elections in five states have upended the primary media narrative around BJP winning, yet again! However, the narrative in the mainstream media remains the same. The talk, the stories, the reasonings behind the results steadfastly orbits around the black hole of Secularism and Hindutva. That's not surprising, obviously. The mainstream media missed out on the rise of Modi in 2014. They insisted that this is one off. Then came numerous state elections where BJP continued to win or continued to increase the vote share yet it was brushed off for one or the other reason. Then came 2019 General Elections. The atmosphere was built as if Modi will not have majority at all, at best or he and BJP will lose power altogether. Of course, the reality on the ground was far different. Now came the 5 state elections where BJP won handsomely in four states yet the focus was either on AAP winning BJP or how Congress dysfunction led to BJPs win. The results are not because of decline of Congress or leadership of Gandhis. The decline of Congress and pungent leadership of Gandhis are not a secret for at least 20 years. The results are not because of banal sounding poll rhetoric of opposition parties and past the due date dynast political parties. The enquiry is never how BJP continues to win. I mean, there's some enquiry but mostly that enquiry is conducted through the lens of Hindutva or through the term 'Majoritism'. Is BJP winning because of better governance? But Is BJP winning because there hasn't been a single corruption accusation against the central govt.? Is BJP winning because they and Modi handled the global pandemic far better? Is BJP winning because they are building more roads, more ports and more airports? Is BJP winning because govt.'s deft handling of foreign relations? Is BJP winning because inflation has been largely been kept in check for almost a decade? Is it because the so called activist have taken over Opposition space, which may be a grand media spectacle but not so much a political and election strategy?
Perhaps, and this is critical, BJP and the BJP govt. is keeping in sync with changing aspirations and expectations of the voters? And, actually delivering on a lot of those promises, fulfilling the aspirations?
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The political game that's been underway in Maharashtra is like an 'unputtable' Dan Brown novel for students of politics (Not political analyst!). The way the current Uddhav Thakrey govt. was formed, the parties that came together to keep BJP out of power was of staggeringly unholy. Of course, there's nothing unholy in politics. No one, literally no one insisted for BJP to ally with Shiv Sena. In fact, a good chunk advised them against allying with that party. Yet, BJP decided to go ahead with the alliance and the in return they got Baba ji ka Thullu at every juncture since the elections. And as if that inane alliance wasn't enough, BJP in a brain-freeze movement decided to form an ill fated alliance with Ajit Pawar. That move reeked such an awful odor that even this author decided not to vote for BJP. Fortunately, that move didn't even last for 24 hours. It was, as it turned out to be, a power move by Sharad Pawar to force Congress's hand in forming an alliance with Shiv Sena. Fast forward couple of years, Ambani bomb threats, multiple corruption scandals, Home Minister absconding, DGP of the state absconding, Hindu-Muslim riots etc. and we are still left with this unholy alliance of three parties.
I had guessed that this alliance will not survive more than six months. I was absolutely wrong. But I am glad BJP is making amends for its earlier mistakes and taking a long view. They continued to make in-roads into rural MH. They fought hard in local elections - from Panchayat to Municipal elections. They are clearly the largest party in MH right now but still shy of absolute majority. Of course, local elections may not be indicative of Assembly elections but winning local elections shows strong cadre base and enthusiasm at the ground level. BJP's resurgence in UP started with them fighting at local elections only. Second, BJP is refusing to pull the govt. down but at the same time, they are doing everything in their power to show the real face of this utterly corrupt govt. The ED raids is proving to be very successful since it's hurting where it supposed to hurt - the moneybags. The only way these politician will get worried about is losing their corrupt money. And as it's very apparent, they have been doing very shabby job in money laundering.
When will this govt. fall? Hard to say that now. Maybe after Mumbai municipality elections. The indication is BJP will emerge the largest party in Mumbai municipality but more than that, if Shiv Sena gets decimated then they will lose their hold over money they siphon off from this richest municipality in India. The death by thousand cuts will be too much bear and govt. may fall.
However, whenever the govt. is to fall, few things are certain. BJP has emerged as the largest party in MH. Congress will continue to lose it's share to NCP, however, NCP will not grow much beyond it's current confines. But this mess also means NCP will survive. Worse will befall on Shiv Sena though. They will get decimated electorally. But that's not the worse part. By the end of this drama, the only mainstream regional party that was avowedly Hindutva would have turned into Afzal Sena. An utterly despicable way to go!
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