Warning Signs for BJP and Warning for BJP

The recent assembly election win in West Bengal is historic. It transcends standard electoral politics, carrying massive implications for national security, women’s safety, and the pushback against blatant appeasement politics. It was a mammoth effort by multiple government stakeholders who steadfastly performed their duties in the face of life-threatening situations to ensure a free, safe, and fair election.

Naturally, the BJP cadre is jubilant, and party high functionaries are riding high. While the next general election is still three years away—with critical state elections like Uttar Pradesh lined up in the interim—the BJP cannot afford to remain purely euphoric. The headwinds are picking up pace.

Crucially, these headwinds are not the making of opposition parties, nor are they whipped up by foreign-funded activists. They are the natural outcome of a decade-and-a-half-long rule. Some of these issues are of the BJP’s own making, however inadvertent, while others—like the geopolitical fallout of the Iran crisis leading to global inflation—are entirely out of their control.

Past crisis-management tactics may not suffice here. Unless the BJP and its top leadership take concrete steps now, these headwinds could whip up a silent storm that blows away the election results of 2029.

1. The NEET Fiasco: A Masterclass in Poor Messaging

On the surface, the NEET episode looks like standard bureaucratic incompetence rather than deep-rooted corruption. There is also plausible evidence suggesting external forces purposefully tried to paralyze the system through incessant attacks. Whatever the root cause, the central government completely botched the post-scam messaging.

Dharmendra Pradhan fundamentally failed as a minister. He failed to calm public anxiety, evaded effective media scrutiny, and allowed millions of students to suffer in silence. While a fact-finding committee will eventually uncover how the fiasco happened, the immediate job of the government was to be transparent and rebuild student confidence.

The Need for Leadership Accountability

Since 2014, Prime Minister Modi has cultivated an incredible rapport with India's youth through initiatives like Pariksha Pe Charcha, signaling that student well-being was a top priority. Yet, when a pan-India exam bungled this colossally, his silence was deafening; speaking directly to the students—and apologizing if necessary—should have been at the top of the political agenda. With tragic student suicides tied directly to the NEET fiasco dominating headlines, the government cannot fully detach itself from the responsibility, leaving a palpable public anger that will eventually bite back.

Public anger is palpable. While it may not impact the BJP immediately, it is a compounding resentment that will eventually bite back.

2. The Turncoat Liability: Drawing a Red Line

For the love of God, the BJP must stop welcoming turncoats from opposing parties and aligning with opportunistic defectors.

While it is deeply satisfying to watch the TMC unravel like a deck of cards—given that they operated like a political mafia, bleeding the state dry—we cannot ignore who these turncoats are. These roughly 20 MPs and 60 MLAs suddenly feeling "pangs of conscience" after a resounding defeat were perfectly happy to align with Mamata Banerjee during the darkest days of her rule. They stood by silently through years of political violence, extortion, and targeted communal violence. Most damningly, they were ready to continue with the TMC even after opposition activists were slaughtered following the 2021 assembly elections.

The Pragmatism Trap: The BJP leadership might argue that passing critical legislation (like the UCC, NRC, Delimitation, or anti-conversion bills) requires maximizing Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha strength by any means necessary. There is mathematical logic to that.

However, a ideological red line must be drawn. It is already disheartening to see the political compromises made in Maharashtra with the NCP; the party must not lower itself further by standing in line with former TMC elements.

Voters place their faith in the BJP because of its core ideology and beliefs. If key bills are delayed because the party chooses to wait patiently for a genuine mandate, the voter base will understand. I vividly remember being a supporter of Arvind Kejriwal in 2011 and feeling my gut churn when he eventually shared a podium with Lalu Prasad Yadav. The BJP must not do that mistake.

3. It’s the Economy, Stupid!

The Indian economy has undergone epochal changes since 2014. Income levels, living standards, infrastructure, and national ambition have seen a generational uptick over the last 12 years.

However, the current geopolitical crisis involving Iran has the potential to derail this growth, threatening a tsunami of inflation over the next six months. While this global instability is not the government's fault, domestic vulnerabilities will worsen it. Under the cover of inflation, we often see the worst traits of certain business owners emerge: price gouging and a refusal to pass tax benefits down to consumers.

If household incomes fail to keep pace with real, ground-level inflation, the implications for the 2029 general election will be severe. When citizens see less money staying in their pockets, they get nervous. That is precisely when a maverick opposition politician promising unsustainable freebies can successfully convince voters to jump ship.

Recommended Course Corrections:

• Relief at the Pump: The government needs to aggressively reduce petrol prices over the next couple of years.

• Leadership Transition: The Finance Ministry needs a change in leadership. On the ground, the current leadership does not inspire confidence among taxpayers.

• Tax Stability: The arbitrary nature of both personal and investment taxation must stop.

The UPA-II regime did not just fall because of extreme corruption and weak leadership; it fell because hyperinflation directly wrecked household budgets. While the current situation is far less dire—thanks to a strong Prime Minister and a functioning economy firing on multiple engines—inflation is blind to politics. If left unaddressed, it will wreak havoc.

Conclusion: Confronting Hubris

After 12 years of continuous rule with three more to go in the current term, there is a legitimate worry that political hubris is setting in. Some of the public statements coming out of the Finance Ministry over the last year have verged on arrogant and tone-deaf.

This is not the time for complacency. The economic and governance foundation built over the last decade still requires immense, careful work—and only a focused, grounded government can finish the job.

Poribortan of the East - The Bengal Files!

The recently concluded West Bengal Assembly elections will be remembered as one of the most consequential in India’s political history. The BJP’s decisive victory not only ends 15 years of Trinamool Congress rule but sends strong reverberations across the country’s electoral landscape. It offers the BJP an unprecedented opportunity to govern the entire Ganga-Brahmaputra region, while putting the opposition, particularly regional satraps, on notice.

The Rot of Prolonged Misrule

West Bengal has suffered decades of governance failure—first under the Left Front for nearly 34 years, and then under Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress for another 15. Voters had initially turned to Mamata Banerjee hoping for change from the stagnation and corruption of the Left. Instead, they got a more chaotic and extractive regime. What followed was a toxic mix of incompetence, institutional capture, extortion (“hafta vasooli”), and syndicate raj. Major scams — from the Saradha Chit Fund to Rose Valley and the teachers’ recruitment scandal — became symbols of systemic loot. Industrial flight accelerated as investors fled the uncertainty, political violence, and constant extortion. Infrastructure lagged, jobs dried up, and Bengal continued to fall behind other states that benefited from central schemes. The administration was reduced to a family-centric fiefdom where loyalty mattered more than competence. Police and bureaucracy were politicized. Complaints of goonda raj were routinely ignored as long as the ruling party’s money-making machinery remained untouched. The result: a steady exodus of talent, capital, and hope.

Appeasement, Demographic Engineering, and Violence

Mamata Banerjee’s political formula relied heavily on consolidating the Muslim vote bank, which included large-scale infiltration from Bangladesh. In return for this support, the government was often seen as bending over backwards — from resisting border fencing to selective enforcement of law and order. Incidents of communal tension, attacks on Hindu festivals, land encroachment in border areas, and cattle smuggling were either downplayed or ignored. The Sandeshkhali atrocities, post-poll violence after 2021, and targeted attacks on BJP workers exposed the regime’s willingness to use violence as a political tool. Sexual violence was allegedly weaponized to silence dissent. The administration’s selective outrage and open defiance of central authorities on national security issues further alienated large sections of the population.
This hubris eventually became the regime’s undoing. What began as clever electoral arithmetic was increasingly perceived as anti-national cynicism and majoritarian persecution of the state’s Hindu population.

BJP’s Organizational Learning and Central Resolve

The BJP’s 2021 performance (winning 77 seats from near zero) showed promise but fell short due to organizational gaps and post-poll reprisals. This time, the party ran a sharper campaign, corrected past mistakes, and positioned itself as the credible alternative.

Crucially, the Central Government and the Election Commission learned from 2021. Key interventions included:

• Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls to remove illegal and duplicate voters — a constitutionally mandated exercise that faced fierce resistance from TMC.
• Large-scale deployment of central forces (CRPF) to ensure free and fair polling, independent of state police control.
• Firm backing from the courts, which largely rejected attempts to obstruct the election process.

These steps helped create an environment where voters felt safer to express their true preference. The contrast with the fear and intimidation of previous elections was stark.

A New Chapter for Bengal

The people of West Bengal have spoken decisively. After enduring years of misrule, corruption, and fear, they chose change. The BJP now has a historic mandate to transform the state — from rebuilding industry and infrastructure to restoring law and order and economic dignity.

For Modi and Shah, this presents a rare opportunity to deliver visible development in India’s east and prove that “double engine” governance can work even in challenging political terrain. The road ahead won’t be easy. The new government must focus on healing divisions, attracting investment, and delivering governance that rises above the cycle of vendetta and appeasement.

Kudos to the Election Commission and central forces for their professionalism under difficult circumstances, and most importantly, to the voters of Bengal for showing courage and rejecting the politics of fear and entitlement.

Poriborton has finally arrived.