The Haryana elections have been a great surprise to the most. My predication was, BJP would lose by a small margin. They would win enough seats to hold their ground but need to win more to form the government. But BJP leadership and strategists had other plans! When they smelled defeat, they hunkered down and got busy making rapid changes. First, they removed the Chief Minister of more than 9 years and replaced him with a relatively new face. The easy transition between Chief Ministers starkly contrasts with dynastic, 'Jaagirdaari' types in-fighting in Congress whenever there is a change. Second, the BJP implemented a time-tested strategy of overhauling the existing power structure. In 2013, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, incumbent CM of Madhya Pradesh, did not give tickets to more than two-thirds of sitting MLAs. A bold strategy that paid spectacularly as he returned to power with an overwhelming majority- adding 22 more seats than his prior term. BJP similarly gave tickets to only a few sitting MLAs. This led to discontent in the ranks. There were rebellions and party changes. But the party and the leadership stayed put. What was there to lose anyway? Third and last, they made the election local - no longer the Modi election engine. Modi ji played his role and campaigned, but the state-level elections remained state-level. The door-to-door campaign and booth management have always been BJP's fortress, and it was on full display!
However, the BJP's victory in the Haryana elections was not just a good showing but a historic win. In 2014, when BJP first won the majority, they secured 47 out of 90 seats. This time, when they were expected to face a massive defeat, the party held their ground and won 48 seats, their best-ever electoral showing in the state. The math behind this victory can be explained, but what about the voter sentiments that drove such a significant shift? What factors led to this landslide victory?
The Congress party and the other so-called opposition were riding high, understandably so, after sudden gains they achieved during the May general elections. However, they thought they won more seats because of issues they raised, which is not valid. They have yet to come up with better solutions than what the current dispensation has in place. They did not have any fresh ideas either. In the name of electoral strategy, all they had was scaremongering, rumor-mongering, and archaic ideas of social justice that the majority of the upward-moving Indians do not identify with. The scare tactics about the Indian Constitution being in danger did work to an extent. Still, incumbency played an equal or more role in giving a jolt to the BJP in the general elections. Unfortunately, Congress, one of the only main opposition parties in Haryana, stuck to the old formula. They raised false alarms over social justice and outsourced the outrage industry to a third party (the Wrestlers, in this case).
To make matters worse, they made critical mistakes in the caste equation. BJP has been constantly creating a new flank to oppose the dominant caste in every election. In Haryana, the BJP, in the past, managed to unite the non-Jat castes. The Congress party attempted to counter this by adding Selja Kumari to the state leadership. But that backfired spectacularly since the former CM was in no mood to surrender his position of power. That impacted the voting pattern since the non-Jat voters may have decided to stick with the BJP.
The last but essential development often overlooked is the Hindu vote bank consolidation. It has been happening regularly since 2014. The vote consolidation did happen in Haryana as well. There is no metric to calculate that since the Hindu votes do get divided along the caste lines. But constant disparaging of Hindu sentiments by the Congress and other Opposition parties has been building a silent wave of antipathy towards them. If the BJP plays the cards right, they are likely to win in the upcoming Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections.
