In recent credit crises one of the culprits that escaped scrutiny as well as public wrath was Rating Agency. Rating Agencies like S&P, Moody’s et al played most instrumental role in inflating the balloon and then realizing their mistake played pivotal role in bursting it. And yet no one seems to blame them for anything. In fact technically speaking, they are the sole culprit of the whole problem. We are blaming Wall Street bosses for their financial wizardry that ultimately consumed them, we are blaming investing funds for investing without due diligence. We are blaming mortgage companies for making predatory loans. And then the blame game shifts to which President should be blamed. But one thing’s is true that apart from the mortgage companies like New Century Finance neither investors nor Wall Street bosses did anything with criminal intent. Of course they don’t deserve any sympathy. But when you invest in a bond because it’s AAA and it turns out that the bond is actually less that BBB (i.e. below investing grade)and this discrepancy is because Rating Agency didn’t do their job well then who do you think should be blamed?
Let’s me try to paint little background for readers to see my argument easily.
Rating Agencies like S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch etc. are independent companies that rate anything and everything related to debt market. To rate means the probability of a borrower to return the money with interest and in given time. This way lender know how much risk they are taking and interest is charged based on the risk. Higher the probability of default i.e. borrower not returning money, higher the interest is charged. These agencies base their calculation on the publicly available data as well as by talking to the company bosses for better understanding of the company balance sheet. The calculations involve complex mathematical formulas coupled with equally complex statistics. They take into account years of data across the spectrum and then come up minimum standard that has a letter grades. And the companies satisfying these standards qualify for the grade. Rating Agencies have also increased their gamut by adding everything under the sky. They even rate sovereign nations, unsurprisingly applying different scales for different nations.
In 1970’s government of United States granted a special status NRSRO i.e. Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization- to certain rating agencies. Basically, government said that they trust these rating agencies for rating the debt market. Since then it became a rule for majority of mutual funds – the giants in the investing world – to buy the investment with certain minimum rating from these rating agencies. But the biggest use of Ratings is Risk Management division across the industry. Whether to invest or whether to lend depends on rating grade. With magic wand of ratings, risk management division decides or put restrictions on the business of lending or investing. Even if the rating criteria is internally developed, it still has to match or map it to the external rating grades i.e. NRSRO accredited ratings. And that’s precisely where trouble started. It was simply assumed that rating agencies know what to do and how to do their job. All though these rating agencies weren’t regulated or audited by government.
There is already a substantial argument against basing market behavior on rigid, one dimensional mathematical model. If history is the precursor then the one shouldn’t believe in such models at all. (LTCM, anyone?) As Prof. Taleb notes in his book ‘Black Swan’ in last century only ten days have had more trade than rest combined. And those ten days didn’t usher us into better world! In short humans behave rationally individually and stupidly in herds. But this argument is still raging and in absence of any worthy alternative markets will continue to rely on ratings and risk management models. So, stereotyping inherently irrational human behavior into math numbers wasn’t totally Rating Agencies fault. But giving rosy ratings to Structured debt and loans with shady origins was their fault.
One can discount such a blatant mismatch as a mistake but what’s interesting was the originators of the shady loans (originating, structuring and ultimately sale of debt is a long and complex process and will need a blog in itself to explain) used to pay fees to the rating agencies to find out how to make a low rated debt into high rated debt. In short, students after failing the test would go to t he teachers and pay them to get correct answers and re-submit the test again. The implication of such conflict of interest was felt through out the world as pension funds and mutual funds ended up buying such rigged investment blindly believing in the purity of the rating. And the Risk Management divisions, as mentioned earlier, based their ‘sound’ models on such ratings too. And as it became clear that the debt isn’t exactly of the high quality, the rating agencies decided to pull out the rug all at once. That was a double whammy because suddenly everyone is trying to sale such de-graded investments at once effectively accelerating credit crises. It’s rather banal to compare this scenario with pack of cards. Not that there weren’t fire alarms but they were conveniently forgotten. For example, the rating for WorldCom was BBB all most to the end when WorldCom filed for Bankruptcy then the biggest bankruptcy in US economic history. Same thing was repeated for Enron. Yet nothing happened and show went on.
And show will continue without even a blip this time too. The corrective measure is to actually challenge the existing notion of risk-management and free it from the clutches of morbid mathematical calculations. But that would be a long haul. In the mean time the sensible thing is to regulate the rating industry. Unfortunately, there aren’t any calls for that. They continue to remain de-facto kings in the investment world. With our money at their disposal they surely aren’t complaining!
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Friday, August 28, 2009
Shut the .....up!
Success has many fathers and failure has none. But in a very perverse manner a contradictory scene is developing on Indian political scene. BJP which lost the election seems to be taking new rabbits out of hat every other week, while Congress, which won the election, seems to be calm. Without usual drama they selected their cabinet ministry and started working as if there was never any election or as if it’s their right to be in the government. On the other hand the leadership in the BJP is crumbling under the pressure of defeat and its cadres are left without any sense of direction and purpose. Moreover, it is embarrassing to see way these ‘senior’ leaders are washing their dirty laundry in pubic. I am not saying there shouldn’t be disagreements but for the love of all that’s sweet on mother earth just shut the fuck up. First you got Uma Bharati then Yashwant Sinha, Murali Manohar Joshi and now Jaswant Singh and of all people, Arun Shourie! What the heck? What bit these intelligent people to run naked in public? I mean really, it’s just really uncool!
I always use to brag that BJP has deep leadership qualities amongst her ranks and file. And most of them are not corrupt and dedicated towards the goal. We had Mr. Vajapayee and Mr. Advani at the helm - two sages of Indian political scene. There is never any question about their integrity, honesty and devotion towards India. And since they have seen every possible up and down in India since independence, it’s just natural that they will usher India into new age of plural democracy and secular development. Then they had second defensive line of Jaswant Singh, Yashwant Sinha, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, Sikandar Bakhta et all. These folks were not exactly young but experienced, dedicated and for most purposes clean. And as if this was not enough they had third generation leadership emerging in Narendra Modi, Uma Bharati, Arun Jaitley, Sushama Swaraj and Pramod Mahajan. These folks not only had strong popular base (except for Arun Jaitley) but they were astute politicians who are also keenly aware of mood of emerging India. And then of course you have legendry foot soldiers of BJP who for most purposes graduated from RSS. These people were selfless, dedicated and motivated by higher cause.
Was this picture figment of (my) imagination or a mirage that BJP managed to create? Neither is true I guess because looking at BJP’s performance in last 20 years it is hard to believe that they would achieve all this without committed cadre base, sensible and intelligent mid-to-senior level and charismatic top rung. And BJP can’t create mirage of anything. That’s for sure. If they can then this is the best time to do that! So what happened? Where did they loose their common sense? What happened to all the discipline that RSS imparted? The fall has been so swift and so quick that it’s hard to fathom exactly when and where they lost all grey material?
The electoral defeat in 2004 general election was surely a shocker but the party did regroup and string of victories in state electoral (including establishing first government in South India) gave every indication that they are up for power in next general election. But it was not meant to be so. They did cling to their seats but the defeat was fatal. Congress swept through the polls and established themselves for another five years. Instead of introspecting senior members of the party started going berserk. Unless the party changes rank and file drastically, they are going down the drain pretty soon.
First of all, and it may seem extremely harsh, Mr. Advani needs to make a way. He is one of the greatest leaders and statesman that India has produced and surely one of the rarest breed who has capability to galvanize huge mass movements. Unfortunately though He is on wrong side of 80 and even if BJP wins the next general election, there is no way he could lead the nation. He not only loosing the control but it seems that he is completely dumbfounded to see his trusted lieutenants behaving in this manner. It will be sad to see him going in such circumstances. He certainly deserves a lot better. But fresh blood is extremely necessary at this juncture. If new leadership fails then at least they will fail after giving a fair shot. And no, Rajnath Singh can’t be his replacement! There are few choices apart from Narendra Modi. I think Sushama Swaraj fits the bill right now. She is intelligent and most importantly she has mass base.
Second, it is absolutely necessary for them to embrace Hindutva completely. It is the single factor that bought them to power. It was the reason they attracted educated middle class and it is the only viable ideology to attract poor to its fold. BJP, when ruling, showed how Hindutva seamlessly meshes up with development. So the Market and industries shouldn’t have any problems with Hindutva. On the social front though dilly-dallying with Hindutva has caused insurmountable damage. Glaring example is the sorry state of the party in Uttar Pradesh. They pretty much lost Delhi because of it. Uttar Pradesh is the most populace (I am including break-away states for this argument) state in India and has highest number of electorate votes. At one point BJP was winning more than 60 seats out of 89 and now they barely cross 10’s. It’s just pathetic.
Third, as mentioned earlier, they need to shut their mouth-holes. There is really no need to yap. They need to put their heads down and start working again. They have enough strength to win next general election. It’s just they need to stay as a united. If only they keep quite then they will hear the footsteps of inevitable doom. They need to be aware of this and should be scared.
And finally, I sincerely hope their next Prime Ministerial candidate is Narendra Modi. There is no alternative to him. They need to rally around him and he is the best hope at this point.
I always use to brag that BJP has deep leadership qualities amongst her ranks and file. And most of them are not corrupt and dedicated towards the goal. We had Mr. Vajapayee and Mr. Advani at the helm - two sages of Indian political scene. There is never any question about their integrity, honesty and devotion towards India. And since they have seen every possible up and down in India since independence, it’s just natural that they will usher India into new age of plural democracy and secular development. Then they had second defensive line of Jaswant Singh, Yashwant Sinha, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, Sikandar Bakhta et all. These folks were not exactly young but experienced, dedicated and for most purposes clean. And as if this was not enough they had third generation leadership emerging in Narendra Modi, Uma Bharati, Arun Jaitley, Sushama Swaraj and Pramod Mahajan. These folks not only had strong popular base (except for Arun Jaitley) but they were astute politicians who are also keenly aware of mood of emerging India. And then of course you have legendry foot soldiers of BJP who for most purposes graduated from RSS. These people were selfless, dedicated and motivated by higher cause.
Was this picture figment of (my) imagination or a mirage that BJP managed to create? Neither is true I guess because looking at BJP’s performance in last 20 years it is hard to believe that they would achieve all this without committed cadre base, sensible and intelligent mid-to-senior level and charismatic top rung. And BJP can’t create mirage of anything. That’s for sure. If they can then this is the best time to do that! So what happened? Where did they loose their common sense? What happened to all the discipline that RSS imparted? The fall has been so swift and so quick that it’s hard to fathom exactly when and where they lost all grey material?
The electoral defeat in 2004 general election was surely a shocker but the party did regroup and string of victories in state electoral (including establishing first government in South India) gave every indication that they are up for power in next general election. But it was not meant to be so. They did cling to their seats but the defeat was fatal. Congress swept through the polls and established themselves for another five years. Instead of introspecting senior members of the party started going berserk. Unless the party changes rank and file drastically, they are going down the drain pretty soon.
First of all, and it may seem extremely harsh, Mr. Advani needs to make a way. He is one of the greatest leaders and statesman that India has produced and surely one of the rarest breed who has capability to galvanize huge mass movements. Unfortunately though He is on wrong side of 80 and even if BJP wins the next general election, there is no way he could lead the nation. He not only loosing the control but it seems that he is completely dumbfounded to see his trusted lieutenants behaving in this manner. It will be sad to see him going in such circumstances. He certainly deserves a lot better. But fresh blood is extremely necessary at this juncture. If new leadership fails then at least they will fail after giving a fair shot. And no, Rajnath Singh can’t be his replacement! There are few choices apart from Narendra Modi. I think Sushama Swaraj fits the bill right now. She is intelligent and most importantly she has mass base.
Second, it is absolutely necessary for them to embrace Hindutva completely. It is the single factor that bought them to power. It was the reason they attracted educated middle class and it is the only viable ideology to attract poor to its fold. BJP, when ruling, showed how Hindutva seamlessly meshes up with development. So the Market and industries shouldn’t have any problems with Hindutva. On the social front though dilly-dallying with Hindutva has caused insurmountable damage. Glaring example is the sorry state of the party in Uttar Pradesh. They pretty much lost Delhi because of it. Uttar Pradesh is the most populace (I am including break-away states for this argument) state in India and has highest number of electorate votes. At one point BJP was winning more than 60 seats out of 89 and now they barely cross 10’s. It’s just pathetic.
Third, as mentioned earlier, they need to shut their mouth-holes. There is really no need to yap. They need to put their heads down and start working again. They have enough strength to win next general election. It’s just they need to stay as a united. If only they keep quite then they will hear the footsteps of inevitable doom. They need to be aware of this and should be scared.
And finally, I sincerely hope their next Prime Ministerial candidate is Narendra Modi. There is no alternative to him. They need to rally around him and he is the best hope at this point.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Hindutva and Youth
India has the fastest growing population of youth under 25. According to recent estimate more than 40% of Indian population falls in this bracket. So it’s just natural that they will be the one driving India’s future. As India increasingly embraces capitalistic ethos the consumption based culture will take deeper roots. I think this phenomenon, in particular, will provide biggest resistance to the spreading of Hindutva ideology. Forget about anti-Hindu media and Christian missionary supported national parties, the youth with insatiable thirst to buy newer cell phones, bikes and clothes may prove hardest to sell to the nationalistic concepts based on Hindutva.
At the same time the understanding about Hindutva philosophy is increasingly getting muddled because of activities that, in reality, has nothing to do with Hindutva. I think if we try to be true to the comment made by Supreme Court of India “The court came to the conclusion that the words "Hinduism" or "Hindutva" are not necessarily to be understood and construed narrowly, confined only to the strict Hindu religious practices unrelated to the culture and ethos of the People of India depicting the way of life of the Indian people” then we can attract more followers. The current youth population is nationalistic in every sense but their priorities have shifted drastically and we need to explain them the Hindutva in a language that they understand.
Sadly, the word Hindutva is usually associated with hooliganism. Shiv-Sena for example is known more about bashing parties and beating people on Valentine’s Day. The recent incident in Mangalore presents the whole concept in very poor light. I don’t think Hindutva is about not celebrating Valentine’s day or not going to pubs. I myself find Valentine’s Day etc. incredibly stupid but that doesn’t mean I have any right to resort to violent acts. Freedom of expression is paramount and should be protected at any cost.
Attacking MF Hussein’s paintings is a different scenario though. Because he offends the sentiments on purpose and law agencies or government doesn't take any action against him on purpose. If he paints paintings of Jesus Christ and Mother Mary in compromising positions or if he paints any picture of Allah then that's fine. His freedom to express his art should work both ways!
But such mundane stuff doesn't necessarily has anything to do with Hindutva either. Hindutva is a philosophy with wider spectrum. So, first, we need to distinguish between this kind of macho-Hindutva from real Hindutva.
The rise of capitalism, as mentioned in the beginning, is impossible to stop. . For the first in last couple of centuries Indians are finding opportunities to lift themselves out of poverty. And they are not going to stop for any ideological principal. Is Hindutva against Capitalism? I am not sure if it is related to any certain economic models. Any economic model as long as it benefits India and Indians is welcome. In current scenario, capitalistic economic model is proving boon to India (The situation may change in future but we should deal with it in future only)
I f, under the guise of Hindutva, organizations like Swadeshi moments attacks this model of economy then we are surely going to loose more base. Such ideology all though may sound legitimate to certain sections of the society should be dissociated from Hindutva.
Once we take out real Hindutva out of these incoherent and confusing acts done by organization related to Hindu politic then it will take spread for sure. Of course, that won't be it. But then we will be in a position to fight the real battle with staunchly anti-Hindu media and leftist academia.
At the same time the understanding about Hindutva philosophy is increasingly getting muddled because of activities that, in reality, has nothing to do with Hindutva. I think if we try to be true to the comment made by Supreme Court of India “The court came to the conclusion that the words "Hinduism" or "Hindutva" are not necessarily to be understood and construed narrowly, confined only to the strict Hindu religious practices unrelated to the culture and ethos of the People of India depicting the way of life of the Indian people” then we can attract more followers. The current youth population is nationalistic in every sense but their priorities have shifted drastically and we need to explain them the Hindutva in a language that they understand.
Sadly, the word Hindutva is usually associated with hooliganism. Shiv-Sena for example is known more about bashing parties and beating people on Valentine’s Day. The recent incident in Mangalore presents the whole concept in very poor light. I don’t think Hindutva is about not celebrating Valentine’s day or not going to pubs. I myself find Valentine’s Day etc. incredibly stupid but that doesn’t mean I have any right to resort to violent acts. Freedom of expression is paramount and should be protected at any cost.
Attacking MF Hussein’s paintings is a different scenario though. Because he offends the sentiments on purpose and law agencies or government doesn't take any action against him on purpose. If he paints paintings of Jesus Christ and Mother Mary in compromising positions or if he paints any picture of Allah then that's fine. His freedom to express his art should work both ways!
But such mundane stuff doesn't necessarily has anything to do with Hindutva either. Hindutva is a philosophy with wider spectrum. So, first, we need to distinguish between this kind of macho-Hindutva from real Hindutva.
The rise of capitalism, as mentioned in the beginning, is impossible to stop. . For the first in last couple of centuries Indians are finding opportunities to lift themselves out of poverty. And they are not going to stop for any ideological principal. Is Hindutva against Capitalism? I am not sure if it is related to any certain economic models. Any economic model as long as it benefits India and Indians is welcome. In current scenario, capitalistic economic model is proving boon to India (The situation may change in future but we should deal with it in future only)
I f, under the guise of Hindutva, organizations like Swadeshi moments attacks this model of economy then we are surely going to loose more base. Such ideology all though may sound legitimate to certain sections of the society should be dissociated from Hindutva.
Once we take out real Hindutva out of these incoherent and confusing acts done by organization related to Hindu politic then it will take spread for sure. Of course, that won't be it. But then we will be in a position to fight the real battle with staunchly anti-Hindu media and leftist academia.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Aftermath of Persian Elections
The fiasco in Iran seems to be finally over. I am not sure what and if it changed anything. We have an Islamic regime that barks at pretty much everyone. I must say that the regime probably does not reflect the general consensus in the country and that majority of the Persians do have sane mind. But anyone who denies existence of Holocaust must immediately be admitted to the mental asylum and arrested if that person is a head of the state. I can understand he wants to cater certain audience and he sincerely believes that his rants gives him certain aura but what he doesn’t realize is that his aura is aura of foolishness. But enough has been written about this madman.
The elections in Iran are different that how democratic elections that take place around the world. Persians do have right to vote and they do have candidates to choose from but the mandate can’t be used for quite a few matters related to the state and governance. For example, whether Persians believe that Israel should be wiped off the earth is irrelevant because the Revolutionary Guard - the powerful quasi-military institution in Iran, truly believes in ‘Zionist’ theory and that’s all it matters. The mandate of the people can be used only for intra-state governance. And even then the policies can’t step outside the gamut of Islamic principals.
The elected President then appoints whole bunch of officers through out the country increasing his strong hold over the bureaucracy. He is counseled by Revolutionary Guards as well as another of the religious council that sits between President’s arm of government and Revolutionary guard. And top of all this sits the Grand Ayatollah –the supreme leader, the ultimate arbitrary of all matters related to state. His words can not be doubted or his decisions can not be questioned. He sits above politics and yet he is heavily involved in all sorts of politics. He can dismiss anyone including the President. Like a King, he is not accountable to anything and to anyone. Though, the grand Ayatollah has not exercised his power frequently. At least, not visibly!
Whether Iran wants to hate US and UK is their choice. They don’t have to love western civilization nor do they need to embrace the western culture. If they want to be an Islamic republic and they should be an Islamic republic. Their grievances against UK and US are quite legitimate. Earlier in the days of Colonism and later under the guise of anti-Soviet build-up, these two western nations have messed up Persia quite unnecessarily. They were pawn for British Empire against Russian powerhouse and with the help of CIA, they overthrew democratically elected President in 1950’s. Later on they supported highly unpopular Shah Dynasty till 1979. But then whole of bunch of countries in the world were used and worse persecuted by British and American empires. Because that’s what Empires do. Similar case can be build against Turkish Empire or French colonial policies in Africa. Spanish empire! Anyone? The list is endless. But very few countries actually keep grieving. They rant, yes, but then they move on. They embrace capitalism whatever way is suitable and they try to attain progress. I think that’s where this proud civilization is slipping. And it is quite feasible that this frustration bubbled up through widespread protests.
At the same time we need to be little skeptical about the coverage in western media as well as relying on Facebook or Twitter. The protest seems to be or at least, recorded only in Tehran. The city’s the capital and metropolitan in every sense. And as is the case most of the world, the populace of big metros is usually more liberal. So, eruption of discontent in Tehran doesn’t mean folks in the other cities or in the countryside are sharing the same concern. But then, just to augment the contradiction further, protests in Tehran has been disruptive in the past. So, does recent protest has potential to herald Iran into another era of confusion and chaos? No one, including Persians themselves, knows the answer.
The protest was handled quite humanly if compared with such instances from the past. And in the face of strong warning, the protest fizzled out quietly. There seems to all most negligible use of force and very few people loosing lives. Of course, any loss of life is deplorable. But that’s how protest stuff works. The point is that Iranian rulers need to realize that they can enhance their own status and elevate their own country if they take this protest seriously. It’s absolutely retarded to keep blaming on western nations because even after the way this country is governed, if UK is still in the position to create mischief then all the Ayatollahs & Co. should resign in shame. The protest was genuine and they were peaceful. They simply wanted a recount, a legitimate request in any democratic institution. By calling them "dust" (who writes speeches for Ahmadinejad's?) or worse traitors is nothing but silly. Again they should not worry about what international media has to say. But to dismiss the huge protests on Tehran streets is showing cracks in the authoritative rule. The economy is still heavily based on Oil revenues and as oil prices has dropped like stone in the water in last couple of years, the macho attitude of the administration is not achieving anything. And when you are a supreme leader, you are not supposed to side with someone. And that's exactly Khamenie did. I think the protesters will be back in few years and that time it will be nastier than ever.
At the end of the day Persians are responsible of their own destiny. War-mongering, stupid brow-beating and constantly taking some ridiculous stand based on some ludicrous ideology is going to haunt the future of Iran for sure. World is moving on very rapidly and it's up to the folks in Iran to decide whether they want to part of the drama or just some loud bystanders.
The elections in Iran are different that how democratic elections that take place around the world. Persians do have right to vote and they do have candidates to choose from but the mandate can’t be used for quite a few matters related to the state and governance. For example, whether Persians believe that Israel should be wiped off the earth is irrelevant because the Revolutionary Guard - the powerful quasi-military institution in Iran, truly believes in ‘Zionist’ theory and that’s all it matters. The mandate of the people can be used only for intra-state governance. And even then the policies can’t step outside the gamut of Islamic principals.
The elected President then appoints whole bunch of officers through out the country increasing his strong hold over the bureaucracy. He is counseled by Revolutionary Guards as well as another of the religious council that sits between President’s arm of government and Revolutionary guard. And top of all this sits the Grand Ayatollah –the supreme leader, the ultimate arbitrary of all matters related to state. His words can not be doubted or his decisions can not be questioned. He sits above politics and yet he is heavily involved in all sorts of politics. He can dismiss anyone including the President. Like a King, he is not accountable to anything and to anyone. Though, the grand Ayatollah has not exercised his power frequently. At least, not visibly!
Whether Iran wants to hate US and UK is their choice. They don’t have to love western civilization nor do they need to embrace the western culture. If they want to be an Islamic republic and they should be an Islamic republic. Their grievances against UK and US are quite legitimate. Earlier in the days of Colonism and later under the guise of anti-Soviet build-up, these two western nations have messed up Persia quite unnecessarily. They were pawn for British Empire against Russian powerhouse and with the help of CIA, they overthrew democratically elected President in 1950’s. Later on they supported highly unpopular Shah Dynasty till 1979. But then whole of bunch of countries in the world were used and worse persecuted by British and American empires. Because that’s what Empires do. Similar case can be build against Turkish Empire or French colonial policies in Africa. Spanish empire! Anyone? The list is endless. But very few countries actually keep grieving. They rant, yes, but then they move on. They embrace capitalism whatever way is suitable and they try to attain progress. I think that’s where this proud civilization is slipping. And it is quite feasible that this frustration bubbled up through widespread protests.
At the same time we need to be little skeptical about the coverage in western media as well as relying on Facebook or Twitter. The protest seems to be or at least, recorded only in Tehran. The city’s the capital and metropolitan in every sense. And as is the case most of the world, the populace of big metros is usually more liberal. So, eruption of discontent in Tehran doesn’t mean folks in the other cities or in the countryside are sharing the same concern. But then, just to augment the contradiction further, protests in Tehran has been disruptive in the past. So, does recent protest has potential to herald Iran into another era of confusion and chaos? No one, including Persians themselves, knows the answer.
The protest was handled quite humanly if compared with such instances from the past. And in the face of strong warning, the protest fizzled out quietly. There seems to all most negligible use of force and very few people loosing lives. Of course, any loss of life is deplorable. But that’s how protest stuff works. The point is that Iranian rulers need to realize that they can enhance their own status and elevate their own country if they take this protest seriously. It’s absolutely retarded to keep blaming on western nations because even after the way this country is governed, if UK is still in the position to create mischief then all the Ayatollahs & Co. should resign in shame. The protest was genuine and they were peaceful. They simply wanted a recount, a legitimate request in any democratic institution. By calling them "dust" (who writes speeches for Ahmadinejad's?) or worse traitors is nothing but silly. Again they should not worry about what international media has to say. But to dismiss the huge protests on Tehran streets is showing cracks in the authoritative rule. The economy is still heavily based on Oil revenues and as oil prices has dropped like stone in the water in last couple of years, the macho attitude of the administration is not achieving anything. And when you are a supreme leader, you are not supposed to side with someone. And that's exactly Khamenie did. I think the protesters will be back in few years and that time it will be nastier than ever.
At the end of the day Persians are responsible of their own destiny. War-mongering, stupid brow-beating and constantly taking some ridiculous stand based on some ludicrous ideology is going to haunt the future of Iran for sure. World is moving on very rapidly and it's up to the folks in Iran to decide whether they want to part of the drama or just some loud bystanders.
Friday, June 05, 2009
The Tank Man
Since last week New York Times is buzzing 20th anniversary of Tienanmen Square massacre. Various articles, photographs and old reports were getting published trying to shed more light on that tragic event. But any new material is so scarce thanks to absolutely tight control over this incidence by Chinese government that basic questions like how many people were killed and what happened to the ones who were caught are still largely unanswered. If it were the western world, scores of books would have been published by now along with handful of movies. Few universities would have tried to set-up a Chair on this incidence too. It’s a different matter that excessive attention paid in western world even on minute incidence usually ends up muddling the water same as excessive crackdown on any dissent that Chinese government enforces.
Coming back to the topic, I was thinking about the photo that encapsulated the whole event. A lone guy in white shirt with some sort of shopping bag in his hand standing firmly and calmly in front of fleet of tanks. The road, bereft of any life, looks ominous with only tanks moving certain direction, most probably towards the protesters. In one of the recent reports it is mentioned that soldiers were firing indiscriminately from the tanks but it is hard to see any soldiers on the tanks. Amidst this firing and people scurrying around for cover, our hero, the “Tank Man” as popularly known now, is standing serenely ready to welcome the fleet of tanks. It makes me wonder, philosophies, what must be going through his mind at that time. His action doesn’t seem like taken in haste. In one of most recent photograph taken from another angle, published in New York Times, there is a considerable distance between where he took his last stand and the approaching tanks. Basically, he had time to run away. He had time to think to about his future, which obviously was quite bleak at that point. He had time convince himself to run. But he didn’t! What prompted him to be so valiant? Did he believe his act would spare lives of innocents by stopping the menacing march of tanks towards the protesters?
We would probably never know.
The fact that Chinese decided to turn on military grade tanks on their own citizens confirms the magnitude of the protest and uneasiness of the government. Would they really stop for a lone guy with shopping bags in his hands? Or rather, stopped by a lone guy with shopping bags in his hands? They didn’t and rest is history. No one knows the fate of ‘tank man’. Some think he survived and still living in China. I highly doubt that. I mean we have an authoritarian government that hangs even juvenile convicts and it would be totally out of character for them to spare his life, specially, after killing thousands of his protesters comrades with ease. After such a gruesome slaughter killing the tank man would be merely adding to statistics.
The unfathomable courage he showed is so exceptional and surprising that majority would call him a mad-man. These cynics will further point out that his protest didn’t stop the carnage. True, but he showed us the power to take a stand. Whether it changes the reality is for later part. The most important thing is to act. He didn’t care if anyone was following him or not. He didn’t care about the consequences. He didn’t make any speeches or grandiose statements nor did he write any books. There is no way that anyone could stand up against military tanks and bullets. And yet he decided to show his strength by standing in front of them. He didn’t attack those tanks with grenades. He didn’t attack them at all. He just wanted to stop them. Perhaps, he thought that he can reason with the military personnel in the tanks because he did climb on the tank looking for someone to talk to and you can all most feel that he wanted them the tank operator to think about consequence of their act. What ever may be the reason; his act was in sheer desperation he showcased the enduring spirit of humans to fight for others; to look beyond individual interest and stand up for greater cause.
Somehow I believe he didn’t think this profoundly at all. Because one, there was probably no time to do so. But moreover, thinking so much can diminish the resolve. His act was instinctive but resolute. In any case when you are facing your death through barrel of the tank or in the bed, the only thing that remains is the debate with your soul.. You are answerable to your own self. Did you do what you were supposed to do? Are you satisfied with your actions? Were you true to your conscious? He had satisfactory answers for himself and with tank gun pointed at him, he set himself free.
Coming back to the topic, I was thinking about the photo that encapsulated the whole event. A lone guy in white shirt with some sort of shopping bag in his hand standing firmly and calmly in front of fleet of tanks. The road, bereft of any life, looks ominous with only tanks moving certain direction, most probably towards the protesters. In one of the recent reports it is mentioned that soldiers were firing indiscriminately from the tanks but it is hard to see any soldiers on the tanks. Amidst this firing and people scurrying around for cover, our hero, the “Tank Man” as popularly known now, is standing serenely ready to welcome the fleet of tanks. It makes me wonder, philosophies, what must be going through his mind at that time. His action doesn’t seem like taken in haste. In one of most recent photograph taken from another angle, published in New York Times, there is a considerable distance between where he took his last stand and the approaching tanks. Basically, he had time to run away. He had time to think to about his future, which obviously was quite bleak at that point. He had time convince himself to run. But he didn’t! What prompted him to be so valiant? Did he believe his act would spare lives of innocents by stopping the menacing march of tanks towards the protesters?
We would probably never know.
The fact that Chinese decided to turn on military grade tanks on their own citizens confirms the magnitude of the protest and uneasiness of the government. Would they really stop for a lone guy with shopping bags in his hands? Or rather, stopped by a lone guy with shopping bags in his hands? They didn’t and rest is history. No one knows the fate of ‘tank man’. Some think he survived and still living in China. I highly doubt that. I mean we have an authoritarian government that hangs even juvenile convicts and it would be totally out of character for them to spare his life, specially, after killing thousands of his protesters comrades with ease. After such a gruesome slaughter killing the tank man would be merely adding to statistics.
The unfathomable courage he showed is so exceptional and surprising that majority would call him a mad-man. These cynics will further point out that his protest didn’t stop the carnage. True, but he showed us the power to take a stand. Whether it changes the reality is for later part. The most important thing is to act. He didn’t care if anyone was following him or not. He didn’t care about the consequences. He didn’t make any speeches or grandiose statements nor did he write any books. There is no way that anyone could stand up against military tanks and bullets. And yet he decided to show his strength by standing in front of them. He didn’t attack those tanks with grenades. He didn’t attack them at all. He just wanted to stop them. Perhaps, he thought that he can reason with the military personnel in the tanks because he did climb on the tank looking for someone to talk to and you can all most feel that he wanted them the tank operator to think about consequence of their act. What ever may be the reason; his act was in sheer desperation he showcased the enduring spirit of humans to fight for others; to look beyond individual interest and stand up for greater cause.
Somehow I believe he didn’t think this profoundly at all. Because one, there was probably no time to do so. But moreover, thinking so much can diminish the resolve. His act was instinctive but resolute. In any case when you are facing your death through barrel of the tank or in the bed, the only thing that remains is the debate with your soul.. You are answerable to your own self. Did you do what you were supposed to do? Are you satisfied with your actions? Were you true to your conscious? He had satisfactory answers for himself and with tank gun pointed at him, he set himself free.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Surprise, Surprise!
I haven’t blogged in all most a month. Such a long break is first of its kind. I wasn’t busy per se but I couldn’t write anything. There were quite a few things to write about but it felt like there is no point in writing. What’s going to change? Nothing! I don’t claim to be influential writer that well, influences people. No, it’s not about that. The question that kills me is that if a person of average intellect (which is me!) can see these issues so clearly then how on earth we as a nation fail to act on it? Does that mean majority in our nation have below par intelligence? I don’t think so. Then how on earth Congress can win this election so comfortably? I mean, it was a fair election. They had a plan and people voted for that plan. In short Congress party won an election legitimately. Congratulations to them. But they didn’t win on a successful five year term. I don’t know how they won but if their track record in last five years is of any indication then we are in for tough ride for sure.
Our nation has been constantly attacked by terrorists in last few years. None of the culprits were bought to justice. These terrorists grew so audacious that they bough the one of the biggest cities in the world to stand still and merrily killed 200 innocent people and fired thousands and thousands of bullets without any hindrance. And yet, nothing! Literally, nothing moved. Apart from this mayhem in Mumbai, we had several bomb blasts across the nation, from Guwahati to Bengalluru and from Jaipur to Hyderabad. All though the modus operandi was eerily similar, it seems the problem of catching the culprits has more to do with political will than simple law enforcement.
It’s often said that votes are decided by rather simpler demands like roti, kapada and makaan. I agree to that but even on that front the earlier government failed miserably. The inflation has skyrocketed with no end in sight. All though government figure steadfastly maintains that inflation rise is around 3 to 4%. To see the prices of lentils, rice, eggs and milk makes you wonder if consumer is mad. In the article published in Indian Express the author has conclusively proved that inflation rate has been 7 to 8% in urban and all most touching 10% in rural areas. That’s a staggering rise by any standards. This prices has been challenged both of rapid increase in demand and supply side inability to keep up with the demand. The second of this equation government is supposed to take care of. Instead, disinvestment has come to stand-still. The infrastructure has taken the back seat and red-tape hasn’t budged at all. I can understand that these age-old problems won’t be solved in one term but my concern is that the earlier government refused to take any steps towards modernization at all. This is particularly a sad picture considering our Prime Minister is hailed as a hero for his tenure as a finance minister in 1990’s.
The fiasco of another round of Reservation policy is long forgotten. The putrid character of Arjun Singh is still well placed in the government. After messing up another young generation he seems to be content person now. There was so much hoopla at that time that it wouldn’t surprise anyone if young generations boot out this government. Well, surprising it was that they actually voted in this government. As the saying goes “Khuda bachaaye”
And then there were foreign policy blunders like loosing Nepal to the communists. All though our foreign policy did great work in isolating Pakistan in the international community. But we will come to the foreign policy part in a separate blog.
These are some of the major points I would think of before casting my vote. Obviously it didn’t happen with majority of the people. I don’t know why. I am not saying BJP was the only choice and people should have voted only BJP but my contention is that folks aren’t thinking before voting. This is not a democracy we are striving for. Vote is not just a right but it’s a responsibility. The responsibility is to think and work for the betterment of the society and for the progress of the nation. It’s a heavy burden and should be treated with respect. In democracy we are supposed to ask questions to the politicians. They work for us. We are the rulers and they are serving us. If we are constantly getting attacked by terrorists then power is in our hands to protect and retaliate. If the food prices are sky rocketing then we are responsible for bringing them down. And easiest way to do that is to vote with responsibility.
If this election is heralding the age of two national parties tussling over power then that’s a welcome relief. However corrupt and incompetent Congress Party is, they are much better than likes of Paswan, Mulayam and Laloos. The other silver lining of this election was decline of Communists. Folks like Communist Party should be out rightly banned from India. Not only that they are corrupt, counter-productive parasites but they are anti-national too. Communists Party of India works more for China than for India. At least now they will be confined only to Bengal rather than wracking havoc in Delhi.
We will evaluate BJP’s future in next blog.
Our nation has been constantly attacked by terrorists in last few years. None of the culprits were bought to justice. These terrorists grew so audacious that they bough the one of the biggest cities in the world to stand still and merrily killed 200 innocent people and fired thousands and thousands of bullets without any hindrance. And yet, nothing! Literally, nothing moved. Apart from this mayhem in Mumbai, we had several bomb blasts across the nation, from Guwahati to Bengalluru and from Jaipur to Hyderabad. All though the modus operandi was eerily similar, it seems the problem of catching the culprits has more to do with political will than simple law enforcement.
It’s often said that votes are decided by rather simpler demands like roti, kapada and makaan. I agree to that but even on that front the earlier government failed miserably. The inflation has skyrocketed with no end in sight. All though government figure steadfastly maintains that inflation rise is around 3 to 4%. To see the prices of lentils, rice, eggs and milk makes you wonder if consumer is mad. In the article published in Indian Express the author has conclusively proved that inflation rate has been 7 to 8% in urban and all most touching 10% in rural areas. That’s a staggering rise by any standards. This prices has been challenged both of rapid increase in demand and supply side inability to keep up with the demand. The second of this equation government is supposed to take care of. Instead, disinvestment has come to stand-still. The infrastructure has taken the back seat and red-tape hasn’t budged at all. I can understand that these age-old problems won’t be solved in one term but my concern is that the earlier government refused to take any steps towards modernization at all. This is particularly a sad picture considering our Prime Minister is hailed as a hero for his tenure as a finance minister in 1990’s.
The fiasco of another round of Reservation policy is long forgotten. The putrid character of Arjun Singh is still well placed in the government. After messing up another young generation he seems to be content person now. There was so much hoopla at that time that it wouldn’t surprise anyone if young generations boot out this government. Well, surprising it was that they actually voted in this government. As the saying goes “Khuda bachaaye”
And then there were foreign policy blunders like loosing Nepal to the communists. All though our foreign policy did great work in isolating Pakistan in the international community. But we will come to the foreign policy part in a separate blog.
These are some of the major points I would think of before casting my vote. Obviously it didn’t happen with majority of the people. I don’t know why. I am not saying BJP was the only choice and people should have voted only BJP but my contention is that folks aren’t thinking before voting. This is not a democracy we are striving for. Vote is not just a right but it’s a responsibility. The responsibility is to think and work for the betterment of the society and for the progress of the nation. It’s a heavy burden and should be treated with respect. In democracy we are supposed to ask questions to the politicians. They work for us. We are the rulers and they are serving us. If we are constantly getting attacked by terrorists then power is in our hands to protect and retaliate. If the food prices are sky rocketing then we are responsible for bringing them down. And easiest way to do that is to vote with responsibility.
If this election is heralding the age of two national parties tussling over power then that’s a welcome relief. However corrupt and incompetent Congress Party is, they are much better than likes of Paswan, Mulayam and Laloos. The other silver lining of this election was decline of Communists. Folks like Communist Party should be out rightly banned from India. Not only that they are corrupt, counter-productive parasites but they are anti-national too. Communists Party of India works more for China than for India. At least now they will be confined only to Bengal rather than wracking havoc in Delhi.
We will evaluate BJP’s future in next blog.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
We The Election!
The general elections are round the corner and the consensus seems to be that anyone can come to the power. And that is of course very scary indeed. If third front comes to the power then we will have hodge-podge of parties that are hell bent on making as much money as possible as quick as possible and the results will be disastrous. Remember the period of 1996 to 1998? Nothing got done and we were in real danger of getting Mulayam Singh Yadav or Laloo Prasaad Yadav as our prime minister. Well, those ghastly nightmares are back. We may get them as our prime minister and the chaos will ensue. Muslim appeasement will peak out. Reservations will be doled out like Prasad in the temples. Private investment will dry out and infrastructure development will come to the grinding halt. Foreign policy initiatives will cease to exist and Economic policies will be shunted out and replaced with communist agenda. And we will be staring at the elections within next couple of years. But that’s not it. If any of those dangerous clowns get elected then that will be smack slap on the face of democracy. None of these parties have ability to win outside their base state. The maximum seats they can win don’t go beyond 20’s and yet they are close on becoming Prime-Minister of the country.
Now if Congress party comes to the power then sadly, we will be back to the square one. We will have a Prime Minister who have no say in anything. He doesn’t show backbone of any sort and refuses to be proactive in anything. Our country will get attacked again by the terrorists as well as by Naxals. Our foreign policy will be non-existent again. We will get into peace dialogue with Pakistan and will be attacked again by them in return. We will ask them to hand over the terrorists and they will refuse to do so in return. Months will pass and our moronic society will forget about those attacks and then we will have peace dialogue again. The inflation is through roofs and yet our finance minister who is also our home minister thinks that this is a good sign. He keeps babbling about strong fundamentals of our economy. Somehow he doesn’t see that the grain prices are getting so exorbitant that soon poor people won’t be able to afford daal-chawal.
The third possibility is that BJP wins the election and comes to the power with support from it allies. I would certainly prefer BJP coming to the power. Amongst the political masses BJP politicians at least get things done. Once upon a time, not so long ago to be honest, BJP had powerful second rung leadership. We had Arun Jaitley, Sushama Swaraj, Narendra Modi, Pramod Mahajan, Rajnath Singh. They were competent, non-corrupt for most purposes and nationalist to the core. All of them (except for Pramod Mahajan who died couple of years ago) are still in the BJP but something’s not right. As much as I respect L. K. Advani, let’s be honest here, why BJP is projecting him as a Prime-Minstrel candidate when he will be 81 soon? Why not break the tradition of giving post to the eldest and present rather younger age. It’s true that most of the ‘young’ Turks are above 50 but that means they are ripe with experience, an absolute necessity in Indian politics, and yet young enough to lead our nation for sustained period of time. But internal feuds in the party are well documented denting the image of the party as party of differences instead of a different party.
Historically, the elections in India are decided by very basic issues like employment, price rise and lack of basic amenities. The rise of regional parties should be attributed to the fact that they know how to play with people’s sentiments in this regard. But we are currently dealing with catch-22 situation. Regional parties scarcely think beyond their state boundaries. In fact they actively work against projects or necessary decisions that may affect their state in short term but help nation in longer term. Moreover they lack the vision necessary to develop the whole nation. That in turn complicates an already tough task of providing basic necessities to the common, which in turn (too many turns!!) increases the appeal for regional parties. I am not sure how and when we will come out of it. Perhaps when people finally start identifying themselves with nation they will start voting for the overall development rather than roti-kapada aur makaan Road to that destination is treacherous and onerous.
Now if Congress party comes to the power then sadly, we will be back to the square one. We will have a Prime Minister who have no say in anything. He doesn’t show backbone of any sort and refuses to be proactive in anything. Our country will get attacked again by the terrorists as well as by Naxals. Our foreign policy will be non-existent again. We will get into peace dialogue with Pakistan and will be attacked again by them in return. We will ask them to hand over the terrorists and they will refuse to do so in return. Months will pass and our moronic society will forget about those attacks and then we will have peace dialogue again. The inflation is through roofs and yet our finance minister who is also our home minister thinks that this is a good sign. He keeps babbling about strong fundamentals of our economy. Somehow he doesn’t see that the grain prices are getting so exorbitant that soon poor people won’t be able to afford daal-chawal.
The third possibility is that BJP wins the election and comes to the power with support from it allies. I would certainly prefer BJP coming to the power. Amongst the political masses BJP politicians at least get things done. Once upon a time, not so long ago to be honest, BJP had powerful second rung leadership. We had Arun Jaitley, Sushama Swaraj, Narendra Modi, Pramod Mahajan, Rajnath Singh. They were competent, non-corrupt for most purposes and nationalist to the core. All of them (except for Pramod Mahajan who died couple of years ago) are still in the BJP but something’s not right. As much as I respect L. K. Advani, let’s be honest here, why BJP is projecting him as a Prime-Minstrel candidate when he will be 81 soon? Why not break the tradition of giving post to the eldest and present rather younger age. It’s true that most of the ‘young’ Turks are above 50 but that means they are ripe with experience, an absolute necessity in Indian politics, and yet young enough to lead our nation for sustained period of time. But internal feuds in the party are well documented denting the image of the party as party of differences instead of a different party.
Historically, the elections in India are decided by very basic issues like employment, price rise and lack of basic amenities. The rise of regional parties should be attributed to the fact that they know how to play with people’s sentiments in this regard. But we are currently dealing with catch-22 situation. Regional parties scarcely think beyond their state boundaries. In fact they actively work against projects or necessary decisions that may affect their state in short term but help nation in longer term. Moreover they lack the vision necessary to develop the whole nation. That in turn complicates an already tough task of providing basic necessities to the common, which in turn (too many turns!!) increases the appeal for regional parties. I am not sure how and when we will come out of it. Perhaps when people finally start identifying themselves with nation they will start voting for the overall development rather than roti-kapada aur makaan Road to that destination is treacherous and onerous.
Monday, March 30, 2009
The American Culprit
The AIG controversy gave slimmer of hope to American population to finally lay blame of current credit crises on someone. Alas, the pop fizzled out so quickly that the joy of revenge didn’t last long. Traders based in US returned their money and traders based in Europe didn’t even bother to take notice of this hoopla. After spending or rather printing, literally, two trillion dollars, getting $80 million back into government coffers was like dark comedy. But it shows the lack of understanding regarding current crises amongst the masses. Worse it shows how US government is running out of any better ideas to pull economy out of trouble. The current debacle in the financial market not only shook the very foundation of financial hegemony of US over rest of the world but it dealt severe blow to the American swagger that they are pioneers of finance wizardry.
It’s easy to blame the whole trouble on few people on Wall Street. They were greedy and they did stupid stuff. But technically speaking none of that was illegal. Unlike in Enron- where the top management was deeply embroiled in cooking books- here, the whole credit cycle process as well as Securitization processes was absolutely legal. Now whether that structure was sustainable or not is a different question. (It wasn’t!) That makes average Joe (common man in US lingo!) is confused that if he is loosing his pension plan and on the verge of loosing his job then how come the techniques that brought down the house is legal? The answer is not that simple. The game has been going on for long time and our average Joe inadvertently ended up playing a major role.
The American economy has been reshaped into a consumer based behemoth that gobbles everything and anything produced around the globe. The insatiable demand wasn’t fueled by higher earnings but rather illusion of earnings. People were borrowing heavily for everything. Right from the clothes to house everything was paid by credit. The credit cards were thrown at people like fliers. The houses were made available to everyone. And all though availability of resources and luxuries to everyone is a noble goal, the bitter truth is that the responsibility was bartered for greed. The saving rate was in negative – a fact lawmakers as well as general populace should be worried about. But not in this land of free! The definition of freedom was twisted in such an ugly manner that government in fact supported this binge consumption on borrowed money. And, why not, the government itself was borrowing money from foreign countries by selling debt to them. The chief of Federal Reserve was spreading the euphoria by telling everyone that this kind of debt restructuring (including securitization) is heralding new age of prosperity to American life. The first part was indeed true, the second, not so much! People borrowed more money by putting their houses as collateral. ‘Flipping’ houses became rage. Folks with no knowledge of financial juggernaut behind housing market or for that matter housing market itself bought houses after houses. In the initial years huge profits were made. But the simple rule of supply and demand is like gravity. It always catches up with you and brings you down. Usually with the loud thud!
The juggernaut didn’t just stop there. Financial firms got into the business they didn’t understand either. Creating securitization business, selling CDO’s, CDO’s of CDO’s, tranching, slicing, creating SPE and then buying insurance to find solace went on for really long time. With limited number of players in the market (both in terms of buyers and sellers) they effectively traded with each other creating a manor of cards. The house was meant to come down.
In short it’s all most impossible to pin-point a culprit. If Americans want to know who is the culprit then they need to stand in front of mirror and open their eyes. The reflection ain’t that pretty!
It’s easy to blame the whole trouble on few people on Wall Street. They were greedy and they did stupid stuff. But technically speaking none of that was illegal. Unlike in Enron- where the top management was deeply embroiled in cooking books- here, the whole credit cycle process as well as Securitization processes was absolutely legal. Now whether that structure was sustainable or not is a different question. (It wasn’t!) That makes average Joe (common man in US lingo!) is confused that if he is loosing his pension plan and on the verge of loosing his job then how come the techniques that brought down the house is legal? The answer is not that simple. The game has been going on for long time and our average Joe inadvertently ended up playing a major role.
The American economy has been reshaped into a consumer based behemoth that gobbles everything and anything produced around the globe. The insatiable demand wasn’t fueled by higher earnings but rather illusion of earnings. People were borrowing heavily for everything. Right from the clothes to house everything was paid by credit. The credit cards were thrown at people like fliers. The houses were made available to everyone. And all though availability of resources and luxuries to everyone is a noble goal, the bitter truth is that the responsibility was bartered for greed. The saving rate was in negative – a fact lawmakers as well as general populace should be worried about. But not in this land of free! The definition of freedom was twisted in such an ugly manner that government in fact supported this binge consumption on borrowed money. And, why not, the government itself was borrowing money from foreign countries by selling debt to them. The chief of Federal Reserve was spreading the euphoria by telling everyone that this kind of debt restructuring (including securitization) is heralding new age of prosperity to American life. The first part was indeed true, the second, not so much! People borrowed more money by putting their houses as collateral. ‘Flipping’ houses became rage. Folks with no knowledge of financial juggernaut behind housing market or for that matter housing market itself bought houses after houses. In the initial years huge profits were made. But the simple rule of supply and demand is like gravity. It always catches up with you and brings you down. Usually with the loud thud!
The juggernaut didn’t just stop there. Financial firms got into the business they didn’t understand either. Creating securitization business, selling CDO’s, CDO’s of CDO’s, tranching, slicing, creating SPE and then buying insurance to find solace went on for really long time. With limited number of players in the market (both in terms of buyers and sellers) they effectively traded with each other creating a manor of cards. The house was meant to come down.
In short it’s all most impossible to pin-point a culprit. If Americans want to know who is the culprit then they need to stand in front of mirror and open their eyes. The reflection ain’t that pretty!
Sunday, March 08, 2009
Analysis Of Recent Developments in Pakistan
I am kind of tired of writing about Pakistan but somehow these buggers manage to keep themselves in the news and that too for wrong reasons. I mean spreading terror around the world does take some efforts!
Things are moving so furiously in Pakistan that the repercussions will soon be felt throughout the world. I think another major terrorist attack is due soon. I don’t think the so called democratic government knows what’s going on but what’s worse is that even their military brass is clueless about these happenings. Dealing with devil is always a loose-loose contest. Pakistan should have known better!
Pakistani Government recently signed a peace accord with Talibani fighters in Swat region of Pakistan. In doing that they effectively gave away a part of their country to Taliban. Pakistani laws will be useless in that region and ultimate decider of anything that happens in that region will be Talibani fighters. I am surprised to see it hasn’t raised much of hackles in international media. There are articles about it in all the major publications but if that’s the maximum exposure even to of this proportion is getting then that’s more worrisome that the actual event.
Since getting their ass kicked by US forces Taliban has made North-West Frontier Province of Pakistan as their new home. Not knowing how to deal with these people Pakistan army allowed them to set up the base in their country. All though Taliban was Pakistani Armies creation the purpose was always to take over Afghanistan. The myopic leadership of Pakistan army can’t think beyond the boogie-man of India attacking them. They were worried that Afghanistan being friendly with India will support Indian invasion. So they created Taliban to take over Afghanistan in order to create strategic reserve in case if India attacks. India never attacked but now the chickens are coming home to roost.
The events of 9/11 were entirely unexpected for Pakistan army on many levels. One, it put the spotlight of whole world on them. Practically the whole world realized that the tumor of terrorism flourishes in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Second, they got dissociated from India. That is, news stopped taking Pakistan and India in same breath. For International media Pakistan became a problem child and that has nothing to do with India. And third US army is sitting solidly right next to their door. Pakistani army couldn’t disown Taliban nor could it support them. The pressure from international community was immense and they had limited options to maneuver.US army as well as political leadership is getting impatient. US drones regularly intrudes into Pakistani soil and few months ago US soldiers entered Pakistani soil in pursuit of Taliban. That must have sent Pakistani army brass into seizure. So they turned to their favorite enemy for help! The spurt in bomb blasts in India was their desperate attempt to deflect attention from them. The brazen attack in Mumbai was height of their frustration. But it didn’t do any good for them.
Coming back to our original point we can look at the peace accord between Talibani fighters and Pakistani military in two ways. One, Pakistani army is playing another game with US. They are showing to US that unless US stop pressurizing them they will have to do peace accord with Talibani elements. That way they can check-mate US into submission. Basically Pakistan is telling US that you better listen to us or we will screw you by openly befriending your enemies. Or, the second more scary situation is Pakistani army really don’t know how to fight with Taliban anymore. They are outsmarted by Taliban and getting daily beatings from them. With US on one side and supposedly Pakistan on other, I wonder how on earth Taliban is getting state of the art guns and ammunition! Does that mean there is a fissure in Pakistani army itself with one flank supporting Taliban and other fighting with them?
Reading the conflicting messages emanating from Pakistan leadership aftermath of Mumbai attacks as well as attack on Lankan cricket team tilts me towards the second scenario. That is, Pakistani leadership has no clue what the heck is happening.
Terrorist attacks happening around the world and them knowing everything was scary but them not knowing anything and attack still happening is worse!
Things are moving so furiously in Pakistan that the repercussions will soon be felt throughout the world. I think another major terrorist attack is due soon. I don’t think the so called democratic government knows what’s going on but what’s worse is that even their military brass is clueless about these happenings. Dealing with devil is always a loose-loose contest. Pakistan should have known better!
Pakistani Government recently signed a peace accord with Talibani fighters in Swat region of Pakistan. In doing that they effectively gave away a part of their country to Taliban. Pakistani laws will be useless in that region and ultimate decider of anything that happens in that region will be Talibani fighters. I am surprised to see it hasn’t raised much of hackles in international media. There are articles about it in all the major publications but if that’s the maximum exposure even to of this proportion is getting then that’s more worrisome that the actual event.
Since getting their ass kicked by US forces Taliban has made North-West Frontier Province of Pakistan as their new home. Not knowing how to deal with these people Pakistan army allowed them to set up the base in their country. All though Taliban was Pakistani Armies creation the purpose was always to take over Afghanistan. The myopic leadership of Pakistan army can’t think beyond the boogie-man of India attacking them. They were worried that Afghanistan being friendly with India will support Indian invasion. So they created Taliban to take over Afghanistan in order to create strategic reserve in case if India attacks. India never attacked but now the chickens are coming home to roost.
The events of 9/11 were entirely unexpected for Pakistan army on many levels. One, it put the spotlight of whole world on them. Practically the whole world realized that the tumor of terrorism flourishes in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Second, they got dissociated from India. That is, news stopped taking Pakistan and India in same breath. For International media Pakistan became a problem child and that has nothing to do with India. And third US army is sitting solidly right next to their door. Pakistani army couldn’t disown Taliban nor could it support them. The pressure from international community was immense and they had limited options to maneuver.US army as well as political leadership is getting impatient. US drones regularly intrudes into Pakistani soil and few months ago US soldiers entered Pakistani soil in pursuit of Taliban. That must have sent Pakistani army brass into seizure. So they turned to their favorite enemy for help! The spurt in bomb blasts in India was their desperate attempt to deflect attention from them. The brazen attack in Mumbai was height of their frustration. But it didn’t do any good for them.
Coming back to our original point we can look at the peace accord between Talibani fighters and Pakistani military in two ways. One, Pakistani army is playing another game with US. They are showing to US that unless US stop pressurizing them they will have to do peace accord with Talibani elements. That way they can check-mate US into submission. Basically Pakistan is telling US that you better listen to us or we will screw you by openly befriending your enemies. Or, the second more scary situation is Pakistani army really don’t know how to fight with Taliban anymore. They are outsmarted by Taliban and getting daily beatings from them. With US on one side and supposedly Pakistan on other, I wonder how on earth Taliban is getting state of the art guns and ammunition! Does that mean there is a fissure in Pakistani army itself with one flank supporting Taliban and other fighting with them?
Reading the conflicting messages emanating from Pakistan leadership aftermath of Mumbai attacks as well as attack on Lankan cricket team tilts me towards the second scenario. That is, Pakistani leadership has no clue what the heck is happening.
Terrorist attacks happening around the world and them knowing everything was scary but them not knowing anything and attack still happening is worse!
Monday, January 19, 2009
The Attack of a Black Swan
VaR or Value at Risk is a must model for all financial institution. What VaR model suggests in terms of Dollar figure is that there is a certain confidence that the losses of a firm won’t exceed a certain dollar amount. Calculating VaR number requires complex statistical and mathematical models. And people calculating such numbers are called Quants – a venerable job at least until now! For example if VaR number calculated at 99% confidence interval of an ABC firm is $50 million then that means 99 out of 100 times the maximum losses that can occur will be less or equal to $50 Millions. But the folly lies when we look other way round. It means there is a 1% chance that losses will be at least $ 50 million i.e. from fifty million to infinity. This 1% probability usually brings catastrophe. Nassim Nicholas Taleb christened this seemingly innocuous but probability of catastrophic results as ‘Black Swan’. Unfortunately, the in-built risk management system of human mind doesn’t take this probability into account and hence people tend to get caught unaware. This concept is not just a mathematical probability applied in financial world alone. But we can see imprints of Black Swan in every facet of Human life and across the human history.
For example, no one I mean no one really expected WW II to happen. I know it sounds lunatic. Aftermath of any civilization changing event usually makes us believe that the contemporary generation didn’t do enough to stop the catastrophe. It is true to certain extent but more than that the contemporary generation actually failed to see that something needs to be done. That generation slept like a baby. London Bond Market right up to the Poland invasion was working smoothly. There was no anxiety about getting investment back. And there was no apparent uncertainty in bond pricing about the possibility of a neighborhood country orchestrating war. The war did happen and more than the sheer magnitude, it’s the absolutely surprise that stunned the whole world. And total incompetency in handling the situation cost 60 million lives.
Now let’s try to see India-Pakistan relations through this prism.
It is often mentioned that Security issues is not foremost on Indian voters mind. If that’s the reality then it’s very sad. Considering we are surrounded by countries that don’t necessarily like us we need to be vigilant about our security. We are getting attacked repeatedly by Pakistan and yet we refuse to act against them. We don’t attack them; we don’t put economic sanctions against them. In fact officially they are not even on our Enemy List. (For Pete’s sake we are a peace loving nation!) We play cricket with those bastards and we allow their hopeless singers to make money in India. Any sane mind will think that if Pakistan doesn’t want peace then we will give them war. But sanity is in shortage in India.
The so called intellectual class in India believes that in case of war, losses that Pakistan will be negligible because being a failed state Pakistan don’t have anything anyways. On the other hand the losses India will incur will be huge. That means we need to think hard before going strong. Apart from that, Indians tend to believe that Indian army is too strong for Pakistani army. And Pakistan can never defeat India in conventional warfare In short there is a remote possibility of war and if any then India can kick Pakistani ass anytime. That’s what brings us to the possibility of Black Swan moment. The probability of Black Swan is very low but nevertheless it’s still a possibility. And whenever those events take place, and trust me they do, the results are catastrophic, earth-shattering and history changing. Why do I think the possibility of us getting humbled? Because the conventional warfare is so yesterday! Who wants to talk about conventional war when two of the great empires were humbled by rag-tag armies of Afghan Mujahidin’s and Viet-Congs! The war has changed its face but we haven’t changed our thinking and that can get us into the trouble. Because we believe we don’t need to do anything special and our future generation will curse us for not doing something that was required.
Pakistan is a sworn enemy of India. Irrespective of what Indians or Indian leadership think about Pakistan, in actuality Pakistan’s sole aim is to destroy India. They have tried repeatedly to wage war and when that failed they started creating unrest in India in every way or shape or form. Unfortunately, the usual response from India is nothing short of criminal. It is as if Indians take their freedom too lightly. It is flabbergasting to see Indians forgetting that they were enslaved and ruled by foreign invaders for all most one thousand years. And the freedom we are enjoying and the progress we are achieving is just 60 years old. We are peace-loving nation. Agreed! But peace is a two way street and if other party is hell bent on waging a war or in this case already in war with you then the choices are extremely limited. Either you defend yourself or get obliterated.
It always amuses that the strong Persian and Indian empires crumbled like pack of cards in front of Islamic onslaught. Looking at the history more closely we can see that Hindu kingdoms fought actively and valiantly against Islamic marauders for more than two hundred years. Their mistake was that they fought with invaders as if they are fighting their neighborhood Hindu kingdoms. They failed to see the difference. They didn’t realize that the Islamic invaders are not only hell bent on destroying everything on their way but these invaders, drunk on religious fervor, won’t stop until they destroy the very basic fabric of our society. That’s why Indian kingdom didn’t unite. Worse, they used to let go defeated Islamic invaders with gifts instead of out rightly killing them.
We capture terrorists and then let them go. We capture terrorist and don’t hang them. We don’t think that Pakistan is attacking our way of life and our freedom. We strictly see Pakistan from nation-state angle while they see us strictly through religious perspective.
The uncanny similarities between history and present are too scary to ignore. But we can find solace in the fact that the results will be same! I personally don’t believe there is Black Swan moment waiting to happen. I believe that there is in fact a 900 pound Gorilla sitting in the room ready to pound on us while we sleep like babies.
But then dream land is always more soothing than the reality!
For example, no one I mean no one really expected WW II to happen. I know it sounds lunatic. Aftermath of any civilization changing event usually makes us believe that the contemporary generation didn’t do enough to stop the catastrophe. It is true to certain extent but more than that the contemporary generation actually failed to see that something needs to be done. That generation slept like a baby. London Bond Market right up to the Poland invasion was working smoothly. There was no anxiety about getting investment back. And there was no apparent uncertainty in bond pricing about the possibility of a neighborhood country orchestrating war. The war did happen and more than the sheer magnitude, it’s the absolutely surprise that stunned the whole world. And total incompetency in handling the situation cost 60 million lives.
Now let’s try to see India-Pakistan relations through this prism.
It is often mentioned that Security issues is not foremost on Indian voters mind. If that’s the reality then it’s very sad. Considering we are surrounded by countries that don’t necessarily like us we need to be vigilant about our security. We are getting attacked repeatedly by Pakistan and yet we refuse to act against them. We don’t attack them; we don’t put economic sanctions against them. In fact officially they are not even on our Enemy List. (For Pete’s sake we are a peace loving nation!) We play cricket with those bastards and we allow their hopeless singers to make money in India. Any sane mind will think that if Pakistan doesn’t want peace then we will give them war. But sanity is in shortage in India.
The so called intellectual class in India believes that in case of war, losses that Pakistan will be negligible because being a failed state Pakistan don’t have anything anyways. On the other hand the losses India will incur will be huge. That means we need to think hard before going strong. Apart from that, Indians tend to believe that Indian army is too strong for Pakistani army. And Pakistan can never defeat India in conventional warfare In short there is a remote possibility of war and if any then India can kick Pakistani ass anytime. That’s what brings us to the possibility of Black Swan moment. The probability of Black Swan is very low but nevertheless it’s still a possibility. And whenever those events take place, and trust me they do, the results are catastrophic, earth-shattering and history changing. Why do I think the possibility of us getting humbled? Because the conventional warfare is so yesterday! Who wants to talk about conventional war when two of the great empires were humbled by rag-tag armies of Afghan Mujahidin’s and Viet-Congs! The war has changed its face but we haven’t changed our thinking and that can get us into the trouble. Because we believe we don’t need to do anything special and our future generation will curse us for not doing something that was required.
Pakistan is a sworn enemy of India. Irrespective of what Indians or Indian leadership think about Pakistan, in actuality Pakistan’s sole aim is to destroy India. They have tried repeatedly to wage war and when that failed they started creating unrest in India in every way or shape or form. Unfortunately, the usual response from India is nothing short of criminal. It is as if Indians take their freedom too lightly. It is flabbergasting to see Indians forgetting that they were enslaved and ruled by foreign invaders for all most one thousand years. And the freedom we are enjoying and the progress we are achieving is just 60 years old. We are peace-loving nation. Agreed! But peace is a two way street and if other party is hell bent on waging a war or in this case already in war with you then the choices are extremely limited. Either you defend yourself or get obliterated.
It always amuses that the strong Persian and Indian empires crumbled like pack of cards in front of Islamic onslaught. Looking at the history more closely we can see that Hindu kingdoms fought actively and valiantly against Islamic marauders for more than two hundred years. Their mistake was that they fought with invaders as if they are fighting their neighborhood Hindu kingdoms. They failed to see the difference. They didn’t realize that the Islamic invaders are not only hell bent on destroying everything on their way but these invaders, drunk on religious fervor, won’t stop until they destroy the very basic fabric of our society. That’s why Indian kingdom didn’t unite. Worse, they used to let go defeated Islamic invaders with gifts instead of out rightly killing them.
We capture terrorists and then let them go. We capture terrorist and don’t hang them. We don’t think that Pakistan is attacking our way of life and our freedom. We strictly see Pakistan from nation-state angle while they see us strictly through religious perspective.
The uncanny similarities between history and present are too scary to ignore. But we can find solace in the fact that the results will be same! I personally don’t believe there is Black Swan moment waiting to happen. I believe that there is in fact a 900 pound Gorilla sitting in the room ready to pound on us while we sleep like babies.
But then dream land is always more soothing than the reality!
Friday, December 26, 2008
The Masterstroke of Pakistani Army
I have no idea how we (India) always find classically fooled by Pakistan again and again? The Mumbai attack and the politics that followed is very well executed plan of Pakistan Army and we dumb Indians always find ourselves at the receiving end. Not only that we were criminally unprepared for the genocide that these Muslims unleashed in Mumbai, the responses to these ghastly murders are imbecile and lack ingenuity or statecraft. One of the Muslim cabinet minister speaking his ‘mind’ (it is so obvious that he was paid by Saudis!) is like icing on cake for highly incompetent and useless government headed by an equally retarded Prime Minister.
Let’s first dissect the situation in India. It was surprising to see that Indians were surprised with the attacks on Mumbai. We are having bomb-blasts practically every month in each and every major city in India. Even a retard could figure out that Mumbai is the next target and yet, both the state government as well as central government was dumbfounded with the meticulous execution of the attack. Bunch of clean shaven fanatics from other side of the border systematically butchered hundreds of people in plain sight and it took us three days to put them down.
But fear not, we are going to be world super power soon. A baloney that only balloon headed Indians can believe in!
Of course, politicians know better. They knew that within a month things will go cold turkey. People will forget about everything. There will be few protests (as BAL Thackeray correctly said that the protesters were probably protesting against their party place- Taj and Oberoi – being not open for New Year party!) and after that there will be deathly silence. The government will go about doing usual business of not doing anything until the next attacks when the whole drama will be recreated again.
In recently concluded state election Congress party won two states. The press went gaga over the fact that terrorism didn’t play any role in deciding election. Well, if that’s true then it’s in fact a tragedy of gigantic proportion. In spite of hundreds of thousands of innocent Indian citizen getting butchered by the nation of Pakistan, our oblivious public is not asking hard questions to the ruling party. That’s bad. That’s really really bad. We should brace ourselves for more attacks now. Because a nation sleep walking through killing fields of their own kith and kin deserves nothing better.
Now about Pakistani army - it’s a well known fact that whether they are officially in power or not, they are the one who govern this failed state of Muslim fanatics. The façade of democratically elected government is a joke. For example, the current so called President – Asif Ali Zardari – pleaded insanity in the court as recently as year ago. In short, we have an officially declared retarded person at the helm of a virulently Muslim fanatic society. So anything that this nutcase or his equally doorknob prime minister says is absolute garbage. They have no idea about what the fuck’s going on! They are clue less as well as shit less. Taking them with even pinch of salt will be too much. The real actor is Pakistan Army and its current chief – General Kayani. All though our beloved dictator Mr. Musharaff retired peacefully, the army is still running the show in Pakistan. The spectacularly successful attacks in Mumbai are going to pay them huge dividends. In fact, mother of all dividends.
Currently they are getting squeezed harder than the squash by American army. American army already bombing shit out of terrorists through un-manned Drones have started going into Pakistani territory for military operations. That means American army is violating sovereignty of Pakistani land and rightly so. All the bombast as well as hoax threats that Pakistani army regularly issues to their spine-less neighbors, are worth nothing against American army. Because by openly intruding Pakistani land American army made a statement that they don’t give a zilch about Pakistanis anymore. Plus the new administration has openly stated their disdain for Pakistani army. Now if I were in Pakistani army, that’s scary.
Apart from this worrisome development, Indian government as well as Indian intelligence is building huge infrastructure in Afghanistan. (This is a crown of Indian strategy planning. Kudos to brave people in Indian Intelligence community) The old fears of India encircling Pakistan from all sides are coming into fore once more. All most all of the Afghani government officials are educated in India and they are not only staunchly pro-Indian but they hate Pakistan more than Indians do. So even on Afghan front Pakistani army is finding itself increasingly impotent. The only weapon they have in arsenal to counter both American as well as Indian influence is Taliban. And that’s not slowing down the major strides the Indians and Americans are making. In such situation the only thing these cowards can do is to go after soft targets –that is, innocent Indian citizens. Because these bastards know that Indian ruling class are ball-less and Indian society suffers from short-term memory loss. And so far the attack on Mumbai is doing wonders.
Right after the attack the whole of Pakistani political class started shedding crocodile tears. They started showing solidarity with India. This was just to show that the attackers had nothing to do with Pakistan. I mean, common, who’s going to believe that? All the terrorists’ links always circle back to Pakistan. They have become one stop mall for all terrorist needs. Of course, Pakistani political class knows this. So in second part they started telling the whole world that India is getting to ready attack Pakistan. In short, India is the bully and Pakistanis are the peace loving tree-huggers. Then there were alleged threatening calls from Indian defense minister (that guy can’t even summon his balls at his service, forget about him threatening Pakistan!) and alleged air space intrusion by Indian Air Force.
In the mean time, Americans scared of Mumbai incidence getting repeated on New York Streets was tightening screws on Pakistan. So Pakistani army started telling Americans that in the face of imminent danger from India they gonna have to move troops away from Afghan border to Indian border. In short the operation that they were helping Americans in capturing terrorists will have to go on hold for now. Bingo! With stakes at the center, this master stroke made sure that Americans will be involved between India and Pakistan, something India steadfastly refused to allow.
Basically, without facing any danger from moronic Indian leadership Pakistani army gave a check mate to both India and America. Plus, they managed to give breathing space to Taliban on Afghan border. They killed innocent Indian civilians which I am sure the whole of Pakistani nation celebrates. Pakistani army showed who’s daddy in Pakistan and we are back to square one. An Islamic terrorist infected chronically failed state that possesses nuclear weapon and is governed by army of religious zealots.
Oh and we should definitely tour Pakistan for Cricket and allow them to play for IPL and ICL. Plus we should certainly allow their singers to sing in India. What’s 170 killing has to do with them? We got a billion more!
Thursday, December 11, 2008
To be surprised or not to be surprised!
I am so tired of writing similar blogs that I can’t even think of any words anymore. How many times the words can be repeated to describe seemingly unchanging environment. We have terrorists coming from Karachi by sea this time. They captured an Indian fishing ship and killed all the fishermen (poor souls, no one is even counting them among the victims of Mumbai carnage) and after reaching Mumbai coast all hell broke loose. It’s obvious that readers will ask me that how come this is not surprising? Because same thing happened 15 years ago! Instead of men it was RDX that showed up at the shore. It wasn’t just Mumbai coast which is close to Pakistan border but the RDX landed all the way on to the shore of southern Konkan. Then explosives made their way into Mumbai and ended up killing at least 300 people. To be honest there was at least one difference in 93 bomb blast and 08 carnage. The main culprits Memon brothers were still in India after the blasts and so was Dawood Ibrahim – the sordid underworld mastermind of the blasts. But with grace of our politicians as well as cops then they were expatriated to Pakistan with 'honor'. In recent attack on Mumbai terrorists were killed in Mumbai only. Apart from this difference the Déjà vu continues!
One of my articles was published in Indian Express right after 2006 bomb blasts in Mumbai. In the article I mentioned that modus operandi of the attacks are eerily similar. It’s all most like cut-copy-paste. Years go by the peripheral of terrorists hitting at will is encompassing more and more cities the official response to it remains blithely incompetent and morally corrupt. The government doesn’t talk tough nor does it act tough. In 1993 RDX was planted across Mumbai and in 2008 terrorists planted themselves across Mumbai. The emergency response was not adequate in 1993 and it still doesn’t generate any confidence. The political response to the attack was absolutely shameful in 1993 and in 2009 the response doesn't even exist. Our Prime Minster - a clone of Neville Chamberlain - is hiding at some location thinking about how to retire nicely. Our home minister resigns only when Sonia Gandhi shows her displeasure at him, not when 173 people were savagely put to death by terrorists.
The terror plot points directly to Pakistan in 1993 and it’s beyond doubt that it’s Pakistan (yes the whole nation is a terrorist nation!) that organized killing fields in Mumbai., In 1993 Pakistan was asking for proof and it’s still can’t understand that why on earth Indians are blaming them? Perhaps they should ask that question to Osama Bin Laden who I am pretty sure is celebrating his Christmas with Zardari!
But that’s not it. What’s worse is the public response to these killings remains same too! Life must go on and show must go on are some of the favorite phrases that always make merry appearance after terror attacks. You know what, fuck that shit…..sometime life doesn’t go on. It should be stopped and problem should be solved before starting the show. When diagnosed with Cancer do we say that “oh too bad but life must go on!” no, we immediately do the surgery. Similarly, right now it’s absolutely imperative for Indian society to take care of politicians (Sonia Gandhi? Where the heck is she? Holidaying in Italy?) And more importantly take care of Pakistan. The nation of Pakistan is a cancer to the world. With no known contribution to the civilization, it’s only known export to the world is terrorism. Moreover it’s not our responsibility to save that cancerous gland. We need to put all the options on the table (Mr. Mukharji, shame on you. You are defense minister of India, not of Pakistan) and evaluate pros and cons. We don’t have to go to war right away. But sever economic sanctions with complete freeze on any kind of ties with Pakistan would be a good start. And for the love of all that is sweet in this world fuck all the cricket (does anyone even know that Javed Miandad’s daughter is married to Dawood Ibrahims’ son?) Please I am begging the money-mongers of BCCI to not to send Indian team to Pakistan. In fact, I am begging to Sachin to opt out of tour. I am pretty sure when Sachin says no then the tour will be cancelled.
Also send all those bastard contestants in sa re ga ma back to Pakistan. We don’t need those terrorist singers in India. Anyone who says that music heals, should stand in a Local train approaching the train station where AK-47 wielding gunmen are firing 600 rounds per minute. Healing my ass!
Rabindranath Tagore went to Japan once. The university organized his lecture series. Surprisingly no one showed up. So the organizers started knocking doors in the neighborhood and asking people to come. But people refused to show up. They said that the speaker represents a defeated nation and what’s the point in listening to a defeated philosophy.
Japanese were right in their assertion. A Defeated nation can give only a defeated response. Only a defeatist society would go on with their lives nonchalant in the face of repeated catastrophe. Our society stands true to this criteria.
We are a defeated nation.
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Mumbai Carnage and the Media.
As the gruesome carnage in Mumbai comes to macabre end the politicians, especially of the ruling party, are under severe attack for their ineptitude to read bold letters of terror on the wall. The failure that these coward politicans show in protecting innocent citizens borderlines treachery. But politicians and the terrorist are not alone in this ghoulish drama of Muslim appeasement and ghastly killings that usually follow that are worringly becoming a common picture. The media should be equally blamed for their biased propaganda that nurtures the Muslim terrorism. At least politicians have to care about the vote banks. But Media is answerable to none.
Media is fast transforming itself from merely publishing the happenings to actually creating the happenings. Moreover they have gained uncontested power in recording the history as they please. Mostly owned by conglomerates these news organizations have became a profit seeking predators and they can go to any extent, not to acquire the truth but to get the advertisers.
The case with Indian media is peculiar as these media houses are aligned themselves with political parties. So not only that these media houses more worried about making money but they are also concerned about keeping their political bosses happy.
The recent attacks on Mumbai were not only heinous in nature but the audacity of the terrorists to produce rampant mayhem was never witnessed before. And all though the enormity of the incidence is yet to settle into Indian conscience the media is working overboard to insert the jaundiced view that ranges from the recent terrorist attacks simply being a reaction to ‘Hindu terrorism’ to unsatisfied Muslim population and finally settling onto US foreign policy.
The public discourse regarding the Islamic terrorism that these media houses propagates is very similar to the policies the so called ‘secular’ parties tries to implement. The message that the Muslims are the victims in India and Hindus are hell bent on destroying them is constantly dished out. This rhetoric has finally created a monster that is spreading throughout India like a cancer. To illustrate my argument let’s analyze the a verbal exchange between terrorists and the victims published in recent edition of Wall Street Journal
…Restaurant workers there ushered guests closest to the kitchen inside. The assailants jumped in front of another group that tried to run out the door. "Stop," they shouted in Hindi. They corralled 16 diners and led them up to the 20th floor. One man in the group dialed his wife in London and told her he'd been taken hostage but was OK. "Everybody drop your phones," one of the assailants shouted, apparently overhearing. Phones clattered to the floor as the three women and 13 men dug through their purses and pockets and obeyed.
On the 20th floor, the gunmen shoved the group out of the stairwell. They lined up the 13 men and three women and lifted their weapons. "Why are you doing this to us?" a man called out. "We haven't done anything to you."
"Remember Babri Masjid?" one of the gunmen shouted, referring to a 16th-century mosque built by India's first Mughal Muslim emperor and destroyed by Hindu radicals in 1992.
"Remember Godhra?" the second attacker asked, a reference to the town in the Indian state of Gujarat where religious rioting that evolved into an anti-Muslim pogrom began in 2002.
Gunfire was reported at luxury hotels, a restaurant, police headquarters and a train station.
"We are Turkish. We are Muslim," someone in the group screamed. One of the gunmen motioned for two Turks in the group to step aside.
Then they pointed their weapons at the rest and squeezed the triggers.
Similarly Gujarat riots took place because 59 Hindus were burnt alive in a train by Muslim mob in Godhra, Gujarat. The riots, all though bloody and deplorable, were reaction to the gruesome murder of innocent Hindus.
Following is another example where truth is purposefully twisted in the name of secularism. All though this interview was conducted long time before Mumbai carnage, the questions that Shekhar Gupta asks will astound any sane reader. Unfortunately it is the common man that bores the brunt of this inanity. My favorite questions are “But why is your state a major victim? Is it because Gujarat is next door? And • Do you think Maharashtra is paying a price for being Gujarat’s neighbor? The questions were in regards with prior bomb-blasts that shook Mumbai.
(http://www.indianexpress.com/news/it-a-breakthrough-is-expected-as-early-as-possible.-i-cant-say-whe.../8691/)
I have not seen anyone mentioning that three of the biggest Hindi movie stars are Muslims along with numerous old luminaries. The last President of India was a Muslim and so were two more in laste 70’s. The most successful captain of Indian cricket team was a Muslim. Till recently richest Indian was an Muslim too. In fact, current commissioner of Mumbai is a Muslim and yet not a single Hindu is pointing fingers at any of them. The constant portrayal that Muslims are marginalized by a nefarious design is simply not true. As India is dusting poverty as well as other social ills off its clothes, there are opportunities everywhere. But only a hard-working and ambitious person can grab them.
As the facts are filtered and the context and the perspective are muddled, all that is left a misinformation on which terrorism feeds itself. On one hand we have so called ‘secular’ politicians who for their petty interest try hard to appease Muslims and on the other hand we have extremely biased media that support the inherently counter-productive rhetoric. These two players play major role in accelerating self-victimization in the minds of Indian Muslims. It’s easy to see how a whole community high on half knowledge consistently produces youth who think it’s their right to take revenge.
At least we can vote out the politicians but how are we going to deal with the Media?
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Say what?
Apologies for my long absence! I was busy moving to new place and then I went on a vacation for all most a month. I tried to write couple of ideas but couldn’t finish them properly. Plus the issue I was trying to raise was changing so fast that it would even beat chameleon. So let’s get back to the business.
Allegedly, a Sadhvi – Female Hindu monk, planned to bomb innocent Muslims. What’s worse is that she got few army personnel and a sitting MP involved in her plot. They planted a small bomb in Malegaon - a historically riot ravaged town. Prior to bombing they formed an organization that has same name as the one founded (and still existing) by freedom fighter V.D. Savarkar. And if we go by cop’s account then all these people are not only connected to RSS, VHP and Bajarang Dal but also to BJP. So in one shot the ruling party (with a useless prime-minister at its helm) succeeded in defaming every Hindu organization as well as the opposition party in India. The only hindrance is that there is no proof to any of these theories. Even after doing NARCO tests (they conducted NARCO tests three times. Unprecedented by any account) and brutally beating army personnel cops got nothing to show except for a stolen bike. The special unit established to fight terrorists Anti Terrorism Squad (ATS) is so politically motivated that in desperation they even tried to connect Sadhvi and others in another bomb blast that happened couple of years ago. Unfortunately, cops have already apprehended the master-minds of that blast. but without any evidence or any provable theory or without ever lodging these people under strenuous anti-terrorism laws, ATS even refused to grant them access to their lawyers. The list of ‘terrorist acts’ by ATS just continues.
If the crime has really been committed by these folks then they should be punished. But even the circumstantial evidence is a joke. The blasts when they occurred were reported to be crude in nature. Nothing fancy or sophisticated but now suddenly ATS is saying that the blasts were RDX! The somersault is too much to stomach even for die-hard secularists.
In the mean time Media - the so called torchbearer of secularism in India are having fields day. They are all over the place trying to come up with non-sense news headlines as well as gravity defying theories. The best wacko-theory I liked is that when NARCO tests proved inconclusive, media started saying that with her meditation power Sadhvi is defying NARCO tests! Well, if she would have just disappeared in thin air before getting caught. (For the crime she did not commit) This kind of reporting is comically dark but the news agencies, most of them funded by foreign organizations, are pretty serious in their objective of slander anything and everything Hindu. And for that they can go to any extent. During this whole drama there were huge bomb-blasts in Assam. The responsibility was promptly taken by an obscure Islamic Jehadi group based in Bangladesh. More than 50 people lost their lives and yet the whole incidence was out of news waves within 24 hours. I mean seriously there was no news about the blasts or about the victims or the perpetrators. As if nothing of that sort ever happened.
With this ploy the anti-national forces compromising politicians, pinko-secularist as well as Media finally managed to attack the most revered institution in India – the Indian Army. Even Pakistani army couldn’t do that in last sixty years. Muslims in Kashmir as well as Pakistanis have habit of accusing Indian army of orchestrating riots as well as bombings in Pakistan and in Kashmir. Now they can happily point to the army personnel falsely accused in Malegaon blasts as a proof to their propaganda. Moreover, with Islamic terror on rampage throughout the world, secularists finally got stick of ‘Hindu terror’ to beat Hindus. So for every bomb blasts that will happen in India from this point onwards, these secularists will always point out that terror has no religion and Hindus are terrorists too. I am not sure where this buck stops. The zeal of politicians and media to convict the accused without a fair trial or without any shred of evidence is worrisome. Even if we consider this whole drama is being played for general election due mid next year, what’s frightening is the extent to which these politicians (and media) is ready to sell our countries future for their electoral ambition. It’s depressing beyond words.
p.s. – as I was hammering keyboard to vent my frustration extraordinary events are underway in Mumbai. Instead of planting bombs, so old school, terrorists are creating havoc a’la Hollywood style. Firing indiscriminately and throwing hand-grenades, this terrorist coming out party is heralding a bloody future.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Sighs!!! *^&*^&
Sometimes I feel that it’s a curse to know or understand current affairs and politics. There are enough people in the world who don’t give a damm about politics and they live blissful life. Is it that large number of ignorant people or small band of ambitious people that makes politics is so nasty, so dumb, so counter-productive, so illogical, so irrational and worst, so bloody? I don’t know. One thing that I increasingly feel is that I wish I was ignorant.
I haven’t written any blog in all most a week. I thought about writing a blog on Jaya Bacchan’s comment that created an unnecessary controversy. The freedom of expression cannot and should not be curtailed under any circumstances. At the same time the reality that Bacchan family is heavily involved in the politics and attacks on them are results of them supporting certain political faction should not be missed either. Before I do that the blasts in Delhi happened. I was dumbfounded. I wasn’t sure how many more blogs I can write on the bomb blasts in India. The tale of a non-existent government supposedly taking care of billion people is beyond description. I was out of town for weekend and when I came back and before I formulate my thoughts to write yet another blog chronicling gigantic magnitude of ineptness and incompetence that we know as Manmohan Singh, the Wall Street nosedived. On the surface there is no link between bomb blasts in Delhi and Wall Street debacle. Sadly enough none of these two terrible events were surprising. And as I just started writing about Wall Street double whammy I came across a detailed article about Sarah Palin – the vice-presidential candidate for Mr. John McCain. She reminded me of Georgie boy and my morale took another round of clobbering.
The events I mentioned seem quite disparate in contextual spectrum. Even geographically these events took place in different time zones. But there is eerie similarity between all of them. All of the events are strangely connected to each other by the string of irrationality and chronic dumbness. All these events played as classic interaction between the ignorant majority ignorant and ambitious minority.
Jaya Bacchan is running election on Samajvadi Party ticket. The party that champions the Hindi cause appeases Muslims that borderlines treachery and they are banking on huge north-Indian population to elect them in Mumbai. These activities are obviously enraging native Marathi population and rightfully so. Obviously political attacks on Bacchan family should not surprise anyone. But majority of Marathi population i.e. Marathi people outside of Mumbai region don’t see this connection easily. That leaves us with frustrated and publicity hungry Raj Thakare to resort into anti-Democratic activities like threatening to expel North-Indians out of Mumbai or attacking Bacchan family. Unfortunately, the only winner so far is the Samajvadi Party.
It is a sad state that home minister of Indian owes his allegiance to the foreign born leader of his political party. He doesn’t give a damm that under his leadership thousands of people got killed in bomb-blasts as well as in Naxal movement. For him as public confidence in his abilities doesn’t count much. His ambition is to become Prime Minister and he knows that he can achieve that by licking feet of his Party president. This egregious behavior doesn’t affect the Indian population either. And that’s more worrisome. They aren’t demanding his resignation. That means Manmohan Singh doesn’t need to care about one more thing. I wonder what he does whole day!
The carnage on Wall Street wasn’t entirely unexpected. There were enough learned souls hollering about the housing bubble. By the time people started listening to them it was too late. The speculation leveraged trading, housing securities etc. will be studied for years to come in the Business school. What wouldn’t be studied is the insatiable greed. Actually, it should be called corruption. Everyone knew that something of this sort is coming and yet no one left the table. The last one holding the card was the sucker. Unfortunately, there were quite a few suckers this time and it will result into thousands of lost jobs, billions of equity vanishing and possibility of world economy going south. In this case though it was the ambitious tiny minority creating havoc for rather helpless majority
The article about Sarah Palin was the last straw that dumped me into depression. She is nuts’. An arrogant woman who is not only has very little experienced but whatever experience she has is in Alaska. Yeps, that’s the state with more polar bears than human population! But she has a book in her hand and she listens to higher authority. There mere mention of these two things sends chill down my bones. We have heard all this crap before and yet people are ready to entertain the same agenda again. A tiny ambitious minority and a majority that is eager to play dumb again.
There are 20 million bloggers in United States. I am one of them. The number is quite large for me to not to feel privileged enough to be member of the club. Yet the number is tiny compared to the general populace that these bloggers intend to attract. Again The ambitious yet useless minority that wants to change the world of majority that doesn’t give a squat.
The game just continues.
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