The Syrian Quagmire

The Syria crisis is turning murky and bloody. The civil wars are always a bloody affair so no surprise there. In today’s world, resources – human or natural, play important role in defining the world order. On the contrary Syria which contributes pretty much nothing to the world is playing such an important role in defining the future conflicts. The Syrian situation is interesting because wide array of actors with diverse interests are jostling over this ancient land. Apart from the Basher al Assad, the dictator of Syria, we have Israel, US, the Sunni block (Saudi, Egypt, Jordan etc.), Iran and the Islamic fundamentalist - Al Quida types terrorist organizations - jostling for power in Syria.

Why so much is invested in this piece of land? As I said before this country does not product anything of use. The answer is its proximity to Israel. But this is easy to understand, right? Well, no, in terms of complexity things go downhill from here. The country has been under rule of Assad’s for last 40 years and like other Arab countries, Syria maintains bitter acrimony with Israel. The Assads are Alwaite, an Islamic sect like Shia’s and Sunnis. But majority – 86%, of Syrians are Sunnis. In order to maintain their power they actively feed off Iran for weapons and money. Iran, a Shia state, shares the hatred of Sunnis with Assads. And in order to increase their power in the Arab land Iran uses Syria as a base. Please bear with me as I go deeper in this rabbit hole. The Shias, sunnis and Alwaits share hatred for Israel. So to prove their Islamic credentials they do crazy shit to mess with Israel. The sunni block supports the Palestinian movement. It’s in their interest for Palestine not to form so that they can keep fighting proxy war with Israel. Iran, instead of going through the Palestine cause, supports terrorist organizations like Hezbollah. This terrorist organization is based out of Syria and Lebanon with stated aim of wiping Israel of world map.

In short, the Shia and Sunni block is fighting proxy war with each other by fighting proxy war with Israel through anti-Israel causes and terrorist organizations.

If you are familiar with the concept of Derivative, we are in the territory of double derivatives and about to enter the triple derivatives!

The situation, already dark, turns catastrophically complex when US brings its interest to the table. The Americans are least interested in Syria. The Syrian civil war has been going on for two years already. But three issues bring US to the table. One, they have to insert themselves in the any and every Middle-East situation when Israel is in the play. The Syrian civil war is too close to home for Israel to not to take a role. I am surprised it took them this long to start moving. The Syrians has held the Lebanon hostage for more than 25 years and had made that country a launching pad for attacking Israel. I would have expected Israel to be a major player in Syrian player long time ago.

The second factor is involvement of Iran. US is setting up stage for war in Iran for last three to four years. Under various pretexts, the Americans have been ratcheting up the military presence in Gulf of Homruz. This is making Iran uneasy, to say the least! But they be damned if they reduce their stupid-ass war mongering rhetoric.  With Syria though, Iran cannot afford to lose Assads since they invested so long and so much in them.  With Iran in play in Syrian war, Americans has to jump in the fray to neutralize them. Perhaps, Iran is trying to divert US’s attention away from them.

The third factor is the Islamic fundamentalists creeping into the Syrian war. The remnants of Al-Quida are still active in pockets across the world.  These fundamentalist morons thought they will run with the Iraq war but Americans busted their chops efficiently and comprehensively. Now the ‘left-overs’ are trying to hijack the Syrian war. They have sided with anti-Assad forces, at least for now. And if Assad is to be thrown out then they are hoping to use Syria their home for their grand ambition.

Suffice to say American’s are not happy with this play. They want Al-Quida and Co. dead and buried and I don’t mean that metaphorically! The American response to Syrian crises is limited to providing food and occasional intelligence tips to the rebels. But it won’t be long before we see a concrete in place.

The US policy decisions will impact the future conflict in the middle-east. Involvement of Americans in this conflict will decide whether they have enough political will and band-width to wage full-scale war with Iran. If the Assads are thrown out then Iran will lose a key ally and that may force them to de-escalate their rhetoric with Americans but if that’s to happen then it means Islamic fundamentalist would gain upper hand in Syria and which in turn will draw further attention of Americans. The Americans cannot side with Assads since Assads are supported by Iran but US cannot necessarily side with the rebels either since that means they will be helping the Islamic fundamentalist. Talk about to be or not to be!

It is mind-numbing and impossible to predict how the glass will break but one way or another civil war in this tiny and useless piece of land will reshape the middle-eastern geo-politics.

The New Yorker recently ran an extensive article on the effect of Syrian civil war on civilians. Tens of thousands have been killed in the war so far. The war is already gruesome but it’s taking turn for worse. Assad’s don’t give a fuck about anyone. They won’t mind killing everyone if that’s to mean they can cling to the power. They have used helicopters, artillery and recently, chemical weapon on civilians. Sadly history of middle-east is littered with Assads. It’s the poor who die in troves and yet, fail to impress on any final outcome. This war is of war of empires and human life is least of anyone’s concern.