Sunday, June 21, 2020

Cheeni Kam

Growing up, we never called China as Chaay-na. It was always Cheeen. In Marathi, the name is still written that way only. World, in general, would do better if we have little less of Cheen-i in our life. The Covid havoc Cheen-i has unleashed on world is unprecedented in recent memory. And if that wasn't enough then Cheen is attempting to inflict more pain on the countries that are in a geographically unfortunate situation of being their neighbor. The strategy Cheen-i leadership have adopted since last couple of months is not only surprising but frankly, delusional and self-destructive. Pressure, power and threat rarely work together for long period of time against one country and it definitely will not work if employed against multiple countries, at the same time!

China is currently simultaneously engaged in hostile stand-off with India in Ladakh region, with Taiwan in, well, all of Taiwan region, with Japan in East China sea, with Vietnam and Philippines in South China Sea. They are also attempting to subdue Hong Kong using strong arm tactics. The moves seems calculated to a certain extent. Which to be honest is quite impressive since only the strongest nations in history have managed to compartmentalized their foreign affairs and deal with multiple parties - hostile and friendly, simultaneously. China already considers itself a super-power and perhaps, this is their way to show the world that they have arrived.

But achieving hegemony requires time and patience. And if history (emergence of British hegemony or American hegemony in last 150 odd years) is any precursor then little bit of luck as well. China is showing no patience and them spreading corona virus isn't the lucky break they are hoping for. America is still the numero uno military power in the world. And while one can argue that China is number two, the chasm between #1 and #2 is so vast that one may even say that there is no competition. Moreover, other nations are fast catching up with China as well. In short, below the deck of American military hegemony, world is a multilateral. And the status quo is not changing anytime soon.

Forget about world dominance, even China's immidiate neighbors are no pushovers. Indian military is battle hardened and technological fairly advanced. Japan is heavily militarizing in last one decade. South Korea is also a strong military nation. Vietnam, Philippines and other South-East Asian nations have also armed themselves to the extent they can. These countries are fairly stable politically as well.

Then why is China picking up fights on all fronts? As I said before, perhaps, they think now is the time to shine bright and arrive on the world stage as a super power. If this is the case then we are in more trouble since they would want to start a war with someone to showcase their military strength and worse, win the war. Given that they simply do not care about human life -their own or for others, the war will have to be won at any cost. That means more destruction and loss of human life.

Or, perhaps, they think world is not going to react to their mischief and they get to push the envelope further than before without getting penalized. They are the greatest land grabbers since '13 colony' United States of America. Their policy towards neighbors is to grab land whenever they can and constantly pushing to grab more land from the neighbors. Chinese simply unable to stop from claiming literally EVERYTHING!

I believe that it's likely to be second option. Chinese leadership is delusional for sure but I believe they still understand limits of their power and strength. But by regularly poking fingers into neighbors, proverbial, butts, they get to test their own strength as well as their neighbors. They can test neighboring nations' leadership, resoluteness and political, social and military readiness. And in this process if they can grab few hundred square km land then that's icing on the cake.

Another aspect behind these shenanigans is to divert withering attention away Chinese virus aka corona virus.  Chinese leadership knows that their worldwide popularity, despite 'investing' heavily into foreign nations academia and in journalists / press of foreign nations, is all time low. They are aware that such disenchantment can lead to policy decisions that can have negative impact on Chinese economy. For example, anti-China rhetoric in India has led to cancellation of multi billion dollar infrastructure projects awarded to Chinese construction companies. Now, to be honest, the impact of such measures is less than negligible to Chinese economy but avalanche always start slow.

However, notwithstanding the short term cost, I believe the neighboring nation should play this game resolutely and teach some bloody lesson to Chinese. I know it's easy for me to be keyboard warrior than to be in Ladakh right now. But the reality is backing down right now may save few lives (which is a worthy cause - every soldier's life matter!) but will lead to hundreds of more lives lost in near future. Because these communist Chinese are new scourge on earth and they will not stop unless forcefully stopped. 

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