The Iran Protest - Again?

Iran is witnessing another round of protests. These protests are not a novelty. They keep happening periodically. Imposing harsh lifestyle choices on the masses is a futile exercise. Sooner or later, the masses will simply move on. They move on peacefully or they may choose violence but the general masses will stop listening to the zealotry imposed through banality like dress code or food habits. In the case of Iran, it is enforced head-covering. The liberal Iranians are proud people. The pride comes from being an ancient civilization, from being an ancient land. Ironically, this pride and identity infect the Islamic fundamentalists of Ayatollahs as well. Though they consider themselves the vanguard of Shia Muslims, their confidence comes from the belief that they are an ancient civilization. 

In short, the two factions at loggerheads are deriving their 'strength' from the same source. What's more interesting is, this is the reason these two factions are confused with their objectives and tactics. 

The Hijab protests or any sort of anti-establishment protests are not new to modern Iran. This is the third one in the last 15-odd years. The protest of 2009 was quite big, quite international, and quite bloody. It was a student-led protest. Then the one five years ago was also very big. The rising petrol prices and subsequent inflation led people to respond with fury. And now, another protest is ongoing, started because the Islamist police brutally beat a woman in her 20s for not covering her hair correctly. The woman died shortly afterward from that beating sparking the uprising.Young people are throwing everything they have at the establishment and as much as I appreciate the bravery, it's simply impossible for them to break the wheel here. Revolutions do not succeed. Even with medium success i.e., it manages to overthrow the current establishment, revolutions usually unleash violence. And usually, the strongmen take over who are far from the ideals the original revolutionaries espoused. However, by then society is battered, bruised, and tired. It can no longer fight with the new entrant and the whole cycle begins again. This is what transpired during the 1979 Iranian Islamic revolution 

The revolution was a mixture of religious fervor, foreign-backed actors, young people drinking too much of democracy cool-aid, and foreign powers meddling in Iranian matters. Not all revolutionaries thought they overthrowing a system far more liberal than what is about to come. Not all revolutionaries thought they are overthrowing a stable monarch system that did not answer to the people with an opaque ruling class that will not answer to the people. The liberals wanted freedom, democracy, and modernity. As the struggle went on, these liberals who weren't necessarily atheists, tolerated fundamentalist theocrats around them. As Shah increasingly found himself in a precarious situation, the Islamic theocracy sensed the blood and pounced to grab the power. The western powers, always ready to meddle in Iran, immediately helped Khomeini to reach Tehran in style to complete the takeover. And the rest is history. 

Religious heads are not known to run good government or governance. Khomeini was certainly not the exception to this rule. The hijabs, the veils, the Islamic fundamentalism, the rabid theocracy, the out-of-date economic policy, overdependence on oil, taking up Islamic causes that do not help the country's self-interests, meddling in affairs of neighboring countries that, again, do not help the country in any sensible way, the list goes on. You have mullahs whose key objective is to ensure the religious supremacy of their faith. And if that is to be achieved at the expense of the welfare of people or the betterment of the state, then so be it. 

The liberals are completely lost at this point. They do not have any leader, no critical objective nor do they have any means to achieve anything strategically. Violence is probably not feasible against the state machinary when even a peaceful protest is met with state violence. Their only hope is that the so-called hawks in the US ruling class will lead to a war on Iranian Mullahs. Suffice it to say, it's foolish to believe the US ruling class is anybody's friend. This brings us to these widespread protests that bubble up every few years. These protests follow a pattern. The protests achieve a great success in the beginning, the international press gets more excited and with the rise of social media, every bozo with zero knowledge of ground reality starts hashtagging. Everyone talks abou thow the demise of Khomenis is just around the corner. Every analyst lists out reasons on how this protest is different than the one before. But protests need to achieve its objective in short period of time otherwise it fizzles equally quickly. Protests is not a natural state of any society. All previous Iranian protests fizzled out in a similar fashion. The Mullahs and the police state only has to wait it out. I believe the current protest is nearing its natural demise as well. It's almost time to get back to status quo. The liberals will be beaten down again. 

It's not that Khomeini-inspired revolutionaries are clear in their vision. They are clear about their identity - a religious dogma upholding Shia fundamentalism. Unsurprisingly they think their religious fervor has any value in world affairs. No one cares about their religious beliefs. In this age of capitalism, these Mullahs hold very little capital to matter anything worth the salt in the world affairs. So the Iranian Mullahs resort to counter-productive statecraft such as supporting and funding the violent organizations in Palestine. They consider themselves children of the elite Persian past with illustrious long history and culture that ought to be spread across the world. When the reality is their geopolitical ambition is checked right at their border by Pakistan, Saudis, and Turks. The Sunnis, within the Islamic world, do not particularly like them. No one beyond the Shia world cares about the Iranian past or history. In a perverse way, their prized possession and a potential power of strength - larger reserve of oil and gas, actually attracts all sorts of wrong attention from western capitalist vultures.  All this makes their situation precarious at best. Yet they soldier on. 

The benefit of being a religious zealot is the ability to persevere one own's stupidity. 

Where does this leave Iran and Iranians? For now, nowhere. The status quo will be maintained. World affairs and world powers do not have any appetite for another wild card change in the middle-east. The Ukraine conflict already has impacted the global economy. So, concerns for Iranian stability cannot be afforded. If the protests are to continue and gain further momentum, international forces will help the regime to crush the dissent. The strait of Hormuz has to stay calm and quiet at any cost. 

Unfortunately, innocent young lives are already lost in this protest. And more deaths are likely to happen in near future. Let's hope in the long run these deaths help Iranians to free themselves from the clutches of ruling Mullahs. 

The Incoming Tsunami of State Elections.

The State Elections heat is gradually rising. First, we have Himachal Pradesh followed by the prestigious Gujrat elections. Next year will see critical elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Chhatisgarh, and Telangana. The political games, controversies, accusations, and rebuttals will all rise to a deafening crescendo soon. And it should be. These successful elections are the hallmark of our democracy, the badge of honor for our country. 

Each of these elections throws different problems and scenarios. Indian electorate does not necessarily vote in tandem for State and Central elections. For example, Delhi overwhelmingly votes for AAP in state elections while votes for BJP in its entirety in the Central elections. Madhya Pradesh and Gujrat strongly back BJP in both Central and State elections. Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh always witness a tight and seesaw race between BJP and Congress over the last couple of decades. In Rajasthan, BJP and Congress are changing seats every other election. 

Karnataka has a unique situation. It's the only southern state where BJP is quite strong. At the same time, it's one of the rare states where Congress is also quite strong. The regional party Janata Dal (U) has a sizable vote bank as well. This trifecta tussle gets real in Karnataka. The state of KA is a prosperous and industrialized state with a rich history. The caste equations, the defections, and the religious divide all play a big role. Corruption somehow is not a big issue that speaks volumes about the 'incorruptibility' of political parties! If I predict, I believe the election results will be between Congress and BJP. The JD(U) will melt away. However, there will not be a clear-cut majority giving rise to the potential for either horse trading or defections. In any case, 

Madhya Pradesh has been a BJP bastion for more than 20 years ago. People of Madhya Pradesh faithfully elect BJP at State and Center (except for the one seat of Chhindwara). I believe that trend is likely to continue. There is no regional party in MP and Congress has increasingly become irrelevant. The infighting allowed one of its senior and young leaders to leave the party couple of years ago. Which led to the fall of the Congress State Govt that they unexpectedly won in the last State Elections. And since then Congress is simply coasting without any thought of reaching any destination. This means people are left with no choice but to vote for BJP. Plus, BJP has done quite a bit of developmental work in MP. They should win the election on the merits of work completed rather than because of the disarray of Congress. 

BJP is likely to win comfortably in Gujrat. The state has been a solid backer of the BJP for more than 25 years now. The situation is unlikely to change this time. The party probably felt overconfident last time and got a bit of a rude lesson from the electorate. This time it is very evident that party leadership is all in and working very hard from top to the bottom. Plus, Congress, instead of building on last election's win, has squandered away everything. Even one of Congress's firebrand leaders - a new entrant to the party, was left in the lurch, leading to his defection to BJP. The only question that remains is how big will BJP win this time. Will it break Modi's decisive 2007 election? 

Rajasthan is the polar opposite of Gujrat. The Congress has maintained its stronghold through Chief Minister Gehlot. Though there have been rumors of Searching Pilot breaking away, nothing has materialized so far. I don't think Pilot has enough ground-level support to rebel but he has enough to cause headaches for Congress internally. BJP on the other hand is not a united house in Rajasthan. The former Chief Minister is not entirely on board with the powerful Central govt. party figures. Though nothing has come out in the open the seesaw trend that was witnessed in RJ in the last few elections may not happen this time. It will be a tight contest with some hope for BJP to form the government again. 

Whatever may be the results, the so-called political commentators will jump to the conclusion about the Loksabha elections in 2024. If BJP wins big in all four states then they will conclude that Modi is winning with a thumping majority in 2024. And even one loss will be projected as the end of the Modi era. The reality is fairly clear even in 2022. Notwithstanding all state elections - the Modi government is coming back with another massive mandate in 2024. That is a certainty. 

The Boycott Business or the Business of Boycott?

Boycotts have been the flavor of the month lately. Especially when it comes to the Hindi film industry. Even British colonists did not have to bear the wrath of boycotts as Bollywood is currently facing. But let's not get carried away here. Boycotts' impact will be limited in terms of revenues and will have an expiry date. The reality is that Indian moviegoers care only so much about boycotts beyond a certain point. The moviegoer will not be missing out on a good movie because of #trends on Twitter. Case in point - the movie Dangal. It is the same Aamir Khan of Lal Singh Chaddha and he had already made a lot of controversial statements, yet the movie was a blockbuster. It made hundreds of crores in India and then crossed the border into China to make a few hundred crores again! 

But these boycotts are necessary and were long coming. Good to see the arrogant Bollywood facing the consequences of their actions. It's already unfortunate that Hindi movies, for most purposes, debase the art of storytelling and narration. On top of that, these entitled brats venture into social and political issues with incredible tone deafness and ride the horses of stupidity sermonising 'India' on what's what. I am all for actively participating in social and political issues but instead of leveraging their status in society to enrich the debate, they purposefully stroke the controversy. 

Let's go into a bit of detail here. Bollywood has increasingly been funded by unknown sources. At least since the late 90s. Many believe that the Mumbai underworld funds the movies as a way to profiteer but also to launder money. And since money is flowing from anti-national sources, it is obvious that the agenda will also be set by them. Though they are not brazen enough to paint India as a villain, they try. As part of the soft agenda, Pakistan is increasingly shown in a positive light, and Pakistanis are painted as good people. (Latest, Lal Singh Chaddha) Indian army is shown as either neutral or from the perspective of Pakistanis. (Main Hoon Na, Haider) Politicians are painted badly but then only Indian politicians are painted yellow. (Kashmir File) Similarly, only Hindu fanaticism finds prominent mention while Islami jihad and terror are expertly shown as victimhood. (PK?). The list of agenda-driven, narrative-setting, and biased movies is long. Shahrukh Khan pontificates in Main Hoon Na about Humanity and war crimes where an ex-Indian army man is shown as a war criminal while in reality, it is the Pakistan army that has repeatedly resorted to war crimes against the Indian army. The movie was superhit though. Why? The subtlety was not lost on the Indian audience but till the very recent past, they simply did not care enough. The aforementioned movie had great songs, good comedy, a decent plot and of course, movie had a superstar as a lead!

However, the situation started changing with the advent of social media and with the rise of the Modi-led BJP. The dissenting voices against such Hindi movies grew bold since they knew they won't be ignored and they won't be 'taken out by either the Underworld or by the state machinery ruled by non-BJP governments. They found an audience who were either clueless about the subtle narration or just needed someone to lead them. The dissent was earlier ignored, then ridiculed and when the impact was hard to miss, it was branded as fascist. The reality is that Bollywood is no longer immune to a backlash. It is no longer a one-way street of portraying stories to their whims and fancies. It is no longer the discretion of a few producers and directors to set the anti-Hindu or anti-India agenda. It is no longer acceptable to defame one religion just so that they can capture the movie-going market of Muslim countries. The audience will be calling this bluff and will ensure the impact is seen in the bottom line. 

As if this was not enough, South Indian movies started making inroads into the Hindi belt. Telugu or Tamil movies are abashedly Hindu in outlook and do not hide or defame their faith for the sake of secularism. The production quality and storylines were much better than the majority of the Hindi movies that came in the last decade. The South Indian movie producers astutely collaborated with Hindi movie distribution houses, which ensured same-day release in Hindi. I believe this strategy is adopted by the massive budget Hollywood movies. 

The twin shock meant that big-budget Hindi movies took one after another. Old stupid utterances and old tweets defaming Hinduism or Hindu sensibilities by anyone involved in the production of the big star movies were dug out and became a war cry. The right to speech is for all. If one is free to defame then others have the right to protest. 

However, I don't see this trend of boycotts surviving for too long. It's a legitimate dissent but it is a leaderless movement. Such movements cannot hold for too long since people have work to do. Also, since it's leaderless the agenda is set by everyone. So, everything will be in line for boycott and that means, the boycotts will soon not work for anyone! Sooner or later, a superstar and a good director will make a good movie. Someone will attempt to boycott it and the boycott will fail miserably. After that, the boycotts will be boycotted since they will no longer be taken seriously. 

Though the boycotts will lose steam, the impact of this people-led movement will be everlasting. 

The Catch-22 - Corruption, Politicians and Indian Voters

One of the key complaints I had about the Modi government was that it is not inclined to pursue the corruption scandals from the UPA era. Be it the coal scam or the 2G Spectrum scandal or even the Karti-PC Chidambaram scandal, Modi Government's first term came and went without anything useful being attempted. This does not diminish any of the Modi government's other achievements. But Indian voters were tired of numerous scandals by the UPA government. The Manmohan government is likely to go down as the most corrupt government in the first 75 years of Indian independence. And that's why Indian voters overwhelmingly voted for Modi and BJP in 2014. Naturally, the expectation, then, was government to prosecute the corrupt officials and politicians from the UPA era. 

But that is not how it happened! There are two key reasons that the Modi government could not and would not go after the corrupt. One is the corruption and ineptness of the judiciary and by association, of prosecution agencies. And second, the common Indian voter's fickleness. On one hand, the voters would like to put corrupt politicians on trial but on the other hand, they may very well change the tunes and feel that the government is persecuting the opposition for political benefit. And, then vote for the corrupts. 

This sort of sorcery has happened before! 

Let's look at the first point. The Indian justice system in its current avatar does not have much to do with the 'Justice' part. Whimsical in nature, lethargic in action, and corrupt to the core, the institution seems to be interested in maintaining the British era decorum rather than dispensing justice. A self-serving institution that likes to pontificate from the perch, and readily cries victim while holding power without any sort of accountability. The process of getting justice is a sentence in itself for both the accused and accuser. The system has completely forgotten, perhaps willingly, that the purpose of justice is not only to ensure honesty and law abidance in the society but dispensing justice on time is critical for the survival of the society itself. All these issues and concerns about the justice system are most evident when it comes to prosecuting politicians. Most of the accused politicians are on bail, which gets granted more generously than the 'Prashad' at any local temple. Cases run not just for years but decades. When there is no fear of the justice system, the law becomes optional and it is treated merely as a minor inconvenience. Just look at the percentage of MPs and MLAs across the country with criminal past. To be honest, I am okay with this category. What we should be looking at more closely is politicians without any sort of prior criminal past who are now accused of criminal enterprise. This category is worse since they became criminals after attaining the legislative power, essentially giving them power over the law system as well. In such a situation, even if the Government wants to prosecute the criminals, how is it supposed to do it? One sitting Judge of Delhi HC gave bail and anticipatory bail 16 consecutive times to P.C. Chidambaram in various criminal cases lodged against Chidambaram. 16 consecutive times! That same judge also acquitted all accused of 2G spectrum. Should government even waste time and resources in prosecuting Chidambaram then? Also, during the long-drawn court proceedings, the political career and political prowess of the accused do not diminish at all. Most of such accused leverage the situation to advertise their brand and project themselves as a victim of malice!

Now, the second issue is a bit tricky. One can argue that the general populace tends to forget the criminal enterprise of the politician because it's not their job to convict the politicians. But in a sense, it is their job. But let me come to that point a bit later. Let's see how prosecuting a politician boomeranged in the past. Indira Gandhi was accused of massive corruption during the Emergency period. The next government, the Janata Party coalition, decided to pursue the cases. And even though there was no 24 hours news cycle in that era, the process to go after Indira Gandhi became quite a spectacle. And guess who emerged 'victorious' from this episode? The Indian voter not only rejected the Janata Party coalition but backed Indira Gandhi so strongly that in a subsequent election of 1984, the Congress Party managed to win the highest number of Lok Sabha seats ever won by any political party before or since. 

Given how Indira Gandhi was rewarded for her corruption by the Indian voters, which politician in her right mind would even bother to make corruption the key agenda? Let's look at it this way. Think of politics as a corporate where politicians pursue their careers. Their clients are Indian voters. They try to sell a vision or an agenda to garner votes, which gives returns to the politicians through legislative seats or government ministry. Politicians have realized that going after corrupts not only not gets corrupt convicted but gives additional political milage to the opponents. And if Indian voters do not value their votes enough to not vote for the corrupt, why would politicians care about corruption? They will create a system that whoever wins will get to eat the pie and if the opponent ever wins he/she will have a tacit understanding of not going after the prior establishment. 

The arrest of Indira Gandhi did not lead to her conviction, the cases in the Courts continued aimlessly and police and other law agencies essentially gave up on being the 'law' agencies. Indira Gandhi emerged unscathed and then proceeded to institutionalize the corruption. She managed to build a corruption pyramid where she and her family are perched at the top while the money made its way to them from the bottom up. Almost 40 years since her death, we are still struggling to deal with the corruption model that emerged from the Indira Gandhi era.

Modi government to their credit did quite a bit on the corruption front. There has not been a single financial corruption scandal or even an accusation against any of the Modi government ministers in the last 8 years. It's a grand achievement in itself. But the government also worked hard to close the avenues and opportunities for corruption. No central minister gets files at home. All Babus and Minister have to show up to the office and files are to be kept in the offices only. DBT, Aadhar card, and UPI killed mid-level corruption which used to impact the common man the most. Big ticket defense items such as Rafael jets acquisition were done at the Government level instead of through a middleman. GST and updated Income Tax procedures also took away a lot of avenues for corruption. The government also tried to shake the justice system - whether forcing the system to leverage more technology or attempting to insert some transparency and accountability in the selection and elevation of Justices in the courts. All this is good but as I said at the start of this blog, the Modi government was voted to go after the Chidambaram and Raja of the prior government. And we are still waiting for that movie to start.  

The government did try to go after Chidambaram, the chief architect, and kingpin of the numerous UPA era scandals. But apart from Chidambaram spending a few nights in Tihar, nothing substantial came out of that case. But 3 years since the start of the second term, the government is showing signs of going after the head of the corrupt snake. The apparent resolve can be because of multiple reasons. The opposition is scattered and does not pose any grand challenge. Congress is politically marginalized (they currently rule only two states on their own) and Gandhis are increasingly becoming irrelevant. From an electoral politics perspective, going after Gandhis will not lead to any voter backlash. Or it may very well be that prosecuting agencies finally have everything they need to put at least two of the Gandhis behind bars for a good long time. Remember, Al Capone was never convicted of bootlegging, extortions, or even murders. He was taken down for measly tax concerns. Similarly, it's hard to prosecute Gandhis for any of the frauds they committed when they ruled the country. It is also almost impossible to prosecute them for all the anti-national activities they did. Hence, the prosecution is going after them for the frauds they committed at their level. The frauds like National Herald are shockingly lazy. I think they never thought anyone will dare to prosecute them. The hubris had set in by 2014 and hopefully, that will be their undoing. I also don't think the government will be going after small, figuratively speaking, fishes. The A Raja will go free. But if Gandhis are taken down, it will set a good example for future generations that no one is immune. 

Whatever may be the case, it's heartening to see the Modi government trying to do one more thing they promised. 

Better late than never! 

Indo-Pak: The story of the Hyphen

Lately, I have been noticing a theme on the NDTV news portal where there always a random quote from some Pakistani player is presented as news. It's not like India is playing Pakistan.  Yet, day after day, "Babar said this about Virat Kohli". Now I don't know who Babar is or why he is talking about Virat Kohli. But the most important question is why NDTV has decided to put what Babar has to say on their front page. Then today I noticed two articles in Indian Express. One is about how "Gavaskar, Bedi ...... kept the Indo-Pak hyphen alive" Interesting. India and Pakistan last played a full bilateral series in 2007. That was 15 years ago. Then I noticed another article in Indian Express - this time about new podcast series that connects, and I kid you not, cultural connect between India and Pakistan. I suppose the worse thing than having this emerging pattern of positive news about Pakistan is to have a podcast that talks about the cultural connection between India and Pakistan! Couple of important questions to ask here: Who is planting such news? And, Why?

There's an assorted group of activists, politicians, and academics who continue to peddle the lie that Pakistan is our long-lost brother. That, Pakistani suffer equally from the inept bureaucracy and corrupt political class. And, and this is where it gets nauseating, India should continue to have brotherly feelings towards Pakistan, and continue to maintain cricketing and cultural ties. Somehow this cabal never allows counterarguments and never allow debates on this topic.

Pakistan has been an abysmal failure on all fronts. A cancerous terrorist nation that has not only supported and trained violent Jihadi mindset against India and the rest of the world but has also subjugated and terrorized its population. Such failed nations generally become irrelevant in the world and cease to be a cause of any immediate concern. But Pakistan is unlike any of the other failed nations in the world. A nation born out of massive bloodshed, built on the foundation of religious extremism and zealotry has found a unique formula to bed with world powers for its survival. The concept of a nation, national identity, welfare of citizens, etc. are long forgotten and what is now left is the enrichment of the Pakistani political and military class. It's not like only politicians and military leaders are to be blamed for this sorry state. The common Pakistani has antipathy towards non-Muslims in their own country. They also have deep-seated anger and hatred towards India for being Hindu. They readily voted, when allowed, for politicians who failed in building a nation but readily provided framework for hatred towads India and towards Hindus. The politicians played a crucial role in developing an India-hatred-centric worldview as a cornerstone of domestic and foreign policy. 

India has its share of problems but no country in the world, barring China, has pulled hundreds of millions of people out of abject poverty in the span of few decades. India has become the third largest economy in the world from a PPP perspective and the fifth largest economy from a GDP perspective. While Pakistan's economy is comparable to Mumbai's economy. The hyphen in Indo and Pak does not exist. There is simply no comparison between India and Pakistan in any shape, way, or form. In every facet, India and Indians have continued to work hard and continued to excel while Pakistan is known as a hideout place for Osama bin Laden. 

Yet, the self-styled woke liberal, secularist mafia attempts to compare every issue in India with Pakistan. We can keep aside the foreign-funded talking heads or academics (aka Amartya Sen, Raghuram Rajan) who have a vested interest in keeping the hyphen alive. The rest genuinely believe in the hyphen for two reasons. One is deeply personal - the space this cabal occupied gave them lots of opportunities for government funding and government-appointed jobs. The macabre of peace candle-marching gave them national and international attention in the media. Second, these people may have fooled themselves into believing the utter nonsense that Pakistan wants peace with India. Delusion comes in various forms. And love for Pakistan and peace with Pakistan is one such hashish-level potent delusion. By the way, these people and tendencies are amply nurtured by Pakistani interests through various means. They know the advantages of keeping Indian strategy and political class soft towards Pakistan. They know they can virtually get away with anything - land grabbing, intrusions across the border, bombing civilians, and sending AK-47 armed terrorists onto Mumbai streets. 

And it seems those delusions are rearing heads again. They may be too afraid to come out outright. Modi govt. has done a great job in burying the hyphen. The govt. has acted strongly against Pakistan, shunned them, and showed them their place. Though we cannot wish them away, we can certainly act from the position of strength and power. Modi govt. has done exactly that. Which lead to the suffocation of the pro-Pakistan lobby in India. Especially since the Balakot attack, this lobby has kept it very low. But they were down, not out. And through this innocuous news, they are attempting a comeback. NDTV is a great vehicle to sow distrust and spread misinformation. Cricket gets everyone's attention. Hence, this daily news is about Paki players' opinions about Indian cricketers. It's an attempt to show how Pakistanis are similar to us, how they are a cricket-loving, peaceful nation like us. It's an attempt to not let Indians forget about this Islamist jihadi nation that given a chance will destroy India in a heartbeat. 

Let's see whether this strategy succeeds. The political scene has changed quite a bit in India. The ambiguity towards Pakistan has gone down. Being a pro-Pakistani peace activist does not pay anymore. I mean, literally, it does not pay at all. The ED raids on Kashmiri terrorists fronts, on NGOs etc. is paying dividends. But I will still be wary. Pakistanis has time and again proved to be masters of survival. And maintaining the hyphen is one of the critical aspect of their survival. The only way India can decisively destroy this hyphen by completely dismantling Pakistan. It's not as audacious as it sounds. It's doable. But should it be attempted? 

End of Family Run Political Parties?

 **Long post alert**

The recent political developments in Maharashtra are not surprising. It was always a matter of when rather than if. The government was based on political backstabbing, political brinkmanship, and political self-interest. Which, in politics, is all fair. Just to refresh the memory of the reader – in the 2019 State Assembly elections, BJP allied with Shiv-Sena (SS). There was ample evidence for BJP not to do so. They were in the pole position in the state politics and SS was increasingly acting erratically. Yet, BJP, for old times' sake, allied. As expected, the alliance romped home with BJP winning staggering 105 seats out of 150 odd seats they fought for. While SS win managed to win only 55 out of 100 odds they fought for. The logic dictated that BJP would have the CM, which was also the case in 2014 when BJP won more seats than SS. However, SS had a different idea this time. They started claiming the Chief Minister position despite being the junior party in the alliance. A variety of political gimmicks happened in the ensuing months. During the post-election results time, BJP, even with public mandate firmly on their side, continued to blunders after blunders. The PR was a disaster, the political maneuvering was short-sighted, and it was evident that BJP is increasingly getting checkmated by SS, NCP, and Congress. 

And again, despite having a public mandate against them, the unholy alliance of SS, NCP, and Congress formed the government with SS managing to get the long-sought thrown of CMship on its head.

All is fair in politics and love. For the first time in the Modi-Shah era, BJP found itself politically outclassed and outthought. It happens!

The government formed through all this was always on shaky ground. The unfortunate electoral of MH now had to deal with Congress and NCP which they overwhelmingly rejected and also have a CM who was inept, inaccessible, and with zero administrative experience. The man did not even contest a single election in his entire life and was so scared of facing people that he chose the safe route of MLC to enter the assembly. The result of the administration was disastrous, to say the least. The government was as always on the brink of collapse and at the same time, stumbling from one controversy after another. Bad handling of Covid, corruption charges of staggering proportion, law and order situation with Hindu-Muslim riots, caste politics rearing its ugly head, the problems were unending. The state’s home minister was caught in a bribery scandal and is in police custody for months now. Another minister is caught in money laundering for a Karachi-based underworld. And that very minister’s son-in-law spent one year in jail for drug cartel business. Then there was a bomb-laden car parked in front of India’s richest family’s house and subsequently a dead body of that car owner floating in Mumbai creek. The stench of all this was unbearable. The development projects had either stopped or were moving along at a crawling pace. Surviving all these scandals, perversely, can be considered a success.

During this time, BJP unleashed its political machinery in Madhya Pradesh, wresting control of the state government. They attempted similarly in RJ, barely losing. They fought a bitter and bloody battle in West Bengal against a bloodthirsty megalomaniac. They regained the Karnataka government and gave a bloody nose to the ruling dispensation in Municipality elections in Hyderabad (almost 30% of Telangana’s electorate is in Hyderabad. Hence the heightened significance). They dominated UP, Tripura, and Goa state elections, forming a clear majority government in all. All this while people of MH continued to wait for their turn. Marathi people were confused about why BJP is playing the ‘lost cause’ card in the state. Why no ‘Operation Lotus’ in Maharashtra. Did BJP just give up on the state? Are they biding time and preparing for the next elections? More importantly, why are they letting people suffer for electing BJP to power and not seeing BJP ruling the state?

Well, BJP hadn’t given up on the state. They weren’t biding for time nor were they waiting for the next elections. They decided to go to the root of the problem, Chanakya style. The current crisis, if we can call it such, is changing political alignments in MH for good. It’s a bold attempt to take care of the issue once and for all. It’s an attempt to put a full stop. Once and for all

The way SS was acting since election results smacked the political etiquette. The boorish and unhinged behavior of the party spokesperson was surely infuriating. There was no rudimentary political respect given to anyone and the barking at everything was nauseating. However, the reality was SS enjoys sizeable political clout in Mumbai, the Konkan region, and north Maharashtra. The party never grew after initial years but they still managed to hold onto roughly 55-60 seats out of possible 288 seats. In 2019 elections, they also had 16% of electoral votes. The NCP also managed to hold on to roughly the same seats and about the same % of electoral votes. That left Congress votes as a pasture for plundering. Even with a hypothetical scenario of all Congressi votes (About 15% in 2019 Assembly elections) going to the BJP, which will never happen, BJP is likely to be still short of the majority. They are the single largest party in MH, with twice the number of seats as its closest rival, but still short of an absolute majority by a decent margin. Their only possible target was to go after SS voters. The ideology was intertwined, yet the strong regionalism that SS voters display is likely to hinder such vote transfer. The way SS leadership and spokesperson were behaving, allying with them again increasingly seem to be implausible.  What is the way of this weird deadlock? Losing MH and being passive, aka Bihar was never an option after the 2014 elections. The state is too important in every sense. Another key characteristic of MH politics is - it is probably the only state where every major political party is right of the center. 

This is where the long game that’s currently unfolding comes into play. The way forward was to have SS become the SS that works with BJP. Keeping SS intact to the extent possible where the regionalist aspirations of the certain populace are not subsumed, the over-the-top Hindutva identity of the SS is still proudly presented and all this is to be done without impacting the pan-India Hindutva identity that BJP has been building for decades now. Splitting the party will only lead to further acrimony within the SS cadre and will potentially still leave Thackey’s to do enough electoral damage and worse, potentially further splinter the Hindutva-leaning vote bank. So, the only way forward was to keep SS intact and surgically remove the Tharckeys from the equation. This was an unthinkable and laughable proposition even a month ago. Yet BJP pushed for this. The key reason is being SS MLAs realize their chances of ever getting reelected are increasingly getting dim. They realize the ground pulse is not in favor of SS. Yet, they are not in a position to challenge the Thackrey’s. Unless the revolt is so absolute that the party stays intact and only Thackrey’s gets transferred out with a one-way ticket. This fight ceased to be about forming the state government but more about realigning the arithmetic where the Hindutva vote bank come together to fight the casteist party like NCP or a Muslim party like Congress. 

This is a bold and audacious plan. I don’t know whether it will be successful. So far, it’s pointing in the direction of complete success. But I don’t think this was ever attempted before, especially in the case of regional parties. All regional parties in India are family-run affairs with a charismatic leader who bought the party up. The control these families have over the party is absolute and going against them is a political death sentence for the rebel candidate. However, if the plot in MH succeeds then it will create a blueprint for the future and will have the potential in impacting various regional outfits like TRS, BSP, SP, and TMC. The political crisis in MH is not limited to MH alone. The repercussions will be felt across the country.

Eagerly awaiting to see how it pans out.

The Charade called Nupur Sharma Controversy

I was planning to write a follow-up to my previous blog about the BJP bringing in paradigm shifts in Indian politics. However, the Nupur Sharma controversy forced me to change my blog's direction as well. Let's peel the layers of this controversy slowly.

To begin with, what exactly did Nupur Sharma say? I am not going to repeat that because I am genuinely afraid to get arrested for repeating something that's factually correct and cited numerous times in Islamic literature. In this age of social media, the first casualty is freedom of speech. And in India where minority appeasement and mob mentality still infect government machinery, saying the truth will land you in trouble. But should Nupur Sharma have said what she said? Maybe. Maybe not. She was baited into it for sure. When the Gyanvyapi mosque case started getting traction, the collective mafia of Islamists and secularists in India went into overdrive to trivialize the faith of billions of Hindus. They made fun of Bhagwan Mahdev to such a low level that it's a testament to Hindus in this country that such rampant baiting did not lead to riots. But sometimes it's better not to speak the truth or state the facts. Especially when the party you represent is at the Center and at the helm of the state government. That's not how being responsible works. Sometimes it's better to let progress be made through peace. Sometimes it’s better if people wake up slowly to the reality of Gyanvyapi instead of saying something that can be used to rile up the masses. That's where Nupur Sharma was wrong. Again, what she said wasn't incorrect or worthy of libel, or derogatory. But did she need to say that?  

What should the BJP do here? This is a difficult task. There is no doubt that the way controversy unfolded would raise eyebrows. However, the BJP was compelled to punish Nupur Sharma. She was not supposed to bite the bait as a representative of the ruling party. She shouldn't get carried away. Furthermore, the BJP is a political party. They will always act in their short-term interest. At this point, they do not want to get involved in another Muslim controversy. It overshadows all the good work they are doing or attempting to do. It plays directly into the opposition's strategy to corner the party on the issue of secularism. The secularism mafia gets a bigger forum to spread lies, rumors, and agenda-driven narratives. And all this for a matter that's sub-judice? Only a few years ago, it would have been unthinkable for this case to get heard and this matter becoming public. It's a small victory to start with. But now a whole lot of work got wasted with this stray comment. A bit of a necessary digression here - one should not speak on behalf of the BJP or assume BJP would support them in case of a controversial statement. The statement may be true, and the facts may be right in the front but if the topic is not helping the electoral or political motive, BJP WILL NOT COME TO RESCUE! And as is the situation in MH, for example, opposition-ruled state police will hunt you down, arrest you, beat you and even kill you if necessary and BJP won't don't anything. There are political compulsions obviously but moreover, BJP is the ruling party in over half of India. It cannot act reactionary like Mamta in WB or Afzal Sena in MH. BJP is a national party with an ambition to implement its agenda over the next several decades. If one wants to speak, do that with full knowledge that consequences are only for her/him to bore. 

The international controversy, if we can even call it that, was hilarious. I don't think anyone except for the so-called liberal and woke media took that 'discourse' seriously. Three nations with a stunningly awful record on human rights (Iran leads the world in executing people by hanging!) lecturing India about minority rights? This whole thing feels very well-orchestrated charade. This is now less about what Nupur Sharma said and more about settling scores and generating controversy to achieve nefarious objectives. Is the US playing the role of 'god' through Qatar, 'punishing' in Indian govt. for not siding with them against Russia? Is the Islamist lobby in India flexing muscles, threatening the govt. that any change in the status quo of Gyanvyapi will lead to violence? Has the 'woke' 'liberal', and 'secularists' in India finally found the elusive controversy to latch onto the next election? So many legitimate questions. 

Whether controversy was unnecessary or not, whether what Nupur Sharma said was legitimate or not, whether international geo-politics attempted to take advantage of this situation or not, the reality is, people did die in this episode. Should they be out pelting stones, burning properties, and attacking the police for such a flimsy reason? Definitely not but innocent people (being stupid does not mean one is not innocent!) suffered. Unfortunately, this can be avoided by the People alone. Don't fall for someone else's politics, don't sell yourself short for a Biryani, and don't get caught in someone else's fight. Relax, think and vote intelligently. It is as simple as that! 

The Changing Paradigm of Indian Politics

The elections in five states concluded recently. The results were as expected. The cacophony of political commentary was also along the line of expectations. AAP winning a state is used to overshadow BJP winning other 4 big states. Why did BJP win? Hindutva, RSS, anti-Muslim, Congress not doing its job, Rahul Gandhi's leadership, disparate opposition, it's not BJPs win but Modi's, it's not Modi's win - it is Yogi's, it's not Modi or Yogi's win but Shah's win -  the list is long, banal, old and incoherent. Some political Pundits decided to up the ante. They started talking about how BJP actually did not win UP. It was a moral victory for the Samajwadi Party. For these stalwarts, Akhilesh becoming second largest party is a win that's worthy of jubilation. Ok, I did not see that line of thinking coming but then majority of India's so called Media and political analyst are either compromised or virulently stupid. In any case, it is no surprise that yet again the Media and the analysts failed to understand why BJP keeps winning and they will continue to do so in near future. 

1) In current political arena, BJP is the only party that has a strong ideology, a strong ideology believing cadre, a strong view on culture, country, civilization, a long view on development, consistently updated and changing leadership, strong state level leadership and most importantly, a strong identity. Suffice to say, there is literally no other political party in India that has any of the above. Apart from Communists, all other non-BJP parties are either family run fiefdoms or a gang lead by a rabid and bloodthirsty personality. It is ironic that Communists, at least on paper, have ideology, ideology believing cadre and an identity. They also have a strong view on culture, country and civilization. But Communists are strongly anti-development, and when situation arises, they brazenly go anti-India as well. They are virulently anti-Hindu as well, something, they hide under the garb of anti-Brahminism. In short, on all fronts, Communists are outdated in thinking, outdated in their political gimmicks and literally, 'outdated' in its leadership. 

2) Modi and BJP have ensured they continue to work on agenda items from their manifesto. Political parties in India always treated their election manifesto as a toilet paper. It's a document they would put together for show. Even general populace assumed that nothing from that document will ever get implemented. Modi and BJP changed that drastically. Not only they worked hard on implementing the points but they ensured that this gets communicated across the electoral spectrum. They may bungle some items (farm laws), they may go slow (labor laws) or they may succeed in a spectacular fashion (Article 370, Ram Mandir) but voters know that what's coming their way. 

3) Development, development and development! One of Modi govts. greatest success has been implementing policies to provide basic necessities to the poor. Modi govt. ensured that the marginal sections and poor sections of the society feel feel empowered (Jan Dhan Yojana, UPI) to take advantage of the opportunities. The much vaunted 'Garib' of our country is finally treated as a human being and a partner in the growth. The govt. will no longer play the role of 'Maay-baap'. The economy will create opportunities and the government will work hard to ensure that everyone gets opportunity to take advantage of it. Whether it's massive road building program or building tens of airports and port or fanatically working towards providing piped water facility at every house or empowering the masses through UPIs, the govt. is working towards increasing the productivity of an individual. The economic growth through increasing productivity will be able to withstand any future shocks with relatively ease. 

4) Playing politics through electoral way. Since the fall of Rajiv Gandhi govt. in 1989, Indian national politics was stuck in the backdoor politicking under the guise of coalition politics. Sonia Congress was master of deal making and it ensured their stronghold on national politics for couple of decades. This type of politics lulled all political parties into thinking that they don't need to worry about voters anymore since a deal can always be stuck later on. Modi lead BJP changed that scenario for good. Everything has to pass through the litmus test of what common voters opinion. And to ensure voters do get their say, BJP has been fighting elections at every level and in every state. This shrank the base of national political parties rapidly. And unless regional parties change their ways, their imprints will vanish equally rapidly. For now, the Indian voter is firmly in the driver's seat. She gets to decide the fate of the country and this is one of the biggest success of BJP and Modi. 

All the ink I spilled above does not obfuscate the shortcomings of BJP. It does not mean BJP is doing God's work. BJP is after all a political party and they will act in their own political interest first. Just look at the Mamta orchestrated post-poll violence in West Bengal, BJP simply left its cadre in lurch. However, within the framework of democracy, democratic principles, party politics and associated complexities, BJP and Modi has changed the game drastically. And it is heartening to see that the game is finally benefitting the common man!  

The Five State Results and Afzal Sena

The recent elections in five states have upended the primary media narrative around BJP winning, yet again! However, the narrative in the mainstream media remains the same. The talk, the stories, the reasonings behind the results steadfastly orbits around the black hole of Secularism and Hindutva. That's not surprising, obviously. The mainstream media missed out on the rise of Modi in 2014. They insisted that this is one off. Then came numerous state elections where BJP continued to win or continued to increase the vote share yet it was brushed off for one or the other reason. Then came 2019 General Elections. The atmosphere was built as if Modi will not have majority at all, at best or he and BJP will lose power altogether. Of course, the reality on the ground was far different. Now came the 5 state elections where BJP won handsomely in four states yet the focus was either on AAP winning BJP or how Congress dysfunction led to BJPs win. The results are not because of decline of Congress or leadership of Gandhis. The decline of Congress and pungent leadership of Gandhis are not a secret for at least 20 years. The results are not because of banal sounding poll rhetoric of opposition parties and past the due date dynast political parties. The enquiry is never how BJP continues to win. I mean, there's some enquiry but mostly that enquiry is conducted through the lens of Hindutva or through the term 'Majoritism'. Is BJP winning because of better governance? But Is BJP winning because there hasn't been a single corruption accusation against the central govt.? Is BJP winning because they and Modi handled the global pandemic far better? Is BJP winning because they are building more roads, more ports and more airports? Is BJP winning because govt.'s deft handling of foreign relations? Is BJP winning because inflation has been largely been kept in check for almost a decade? Is it because the so called activist have taken over Opposition space, which may be a grand media spectacle but not so much a political and election strategy?

Perhaps, and this is critical, BJP and the BJP govt. is keeping in sync with changing aspirations and expectations of the voters? And, actually delivering on a lot of those promises, fulfilling the aspirations? 

--

The political game that's been underway in Maharashtra is like an 'unputtable' Dan Brown novel for students of politics (Not political analyst!). The way the current Uddhav Thakrey govt. was formed, the parties that came together to keep BJP out of power was of staggeringly unholy. Of course, there's nothing unholy in politics. No one, literally no one insisted for BJP to ally with Shiv Sena. In fact, a good chunk advised them against allying with that party. Yet, BJP decided to go ahead with the alliance and the in return they got Baba ji ka Thullu at every juncture since the elections. And as if that inane alliance wasn't enough, BJP in a brain-freeze movement decided to form an ill fated alliance with Ajit Pawar. That move reeked such an awful odor that even this author decided not to vote for BJP. Fortunately, that move didn't even last for 24 hours. It was, as it turned out to be, a power move by Sharad Pawar to force Congress's hand in forming an alliance with Shiv Sena. Fast forward couple of years, Ambani bomb threats, multiple corruption scandals, Home Minister absconding, DGP of the state absconding, Hindu-Muslim riots etc. and we are still left with this unholy alliance of three parties. 

I had guessed that this alliance will not survive more than six months. I was absolutely wrong. But I am glad BJP is making amends for its earlier mistakes and taking a long view. They continued to make in-roads into rural MH. They fought hard in local elections - from Panchayat to Municipal elections. They are clearly the largest party in MH right now but still shy of absolute majority. Of course, local elections may not be indicative of Assembly elections but winning local elections shows strong cadre base and enthusiasm at the ground level. BJP's resurgence in UP started with them fighting at local elections only. Second, BJP is refusing to pull the govt. down but at the same time, they are doing everything in their power to show the real face of this utterly corrupt govt. The ED raids is proving to be very successful since it's hurting where it supposed to hurt - the moneybags. The only way these politician will get worried about is losing their corrupt money. And as it's very apparent, they have been doing very shabby job in money laundering. 

When will this govt. fall? Hard to say that now. Maybe after Mumbai municipality elections. The indication is BJP will emerge the largest party in Mumbai municipality but more than that, if Shiv Sena gets decimated then they will lose their hold over money they siphon off from this richest municipality in India. The death by thousand cuts will be too much bear and govt. may fall. 

However, whenever the govt. is to fall, few things are certain. BJP has emerged as the largest party in MH. Congress will continue to lose it's share to NCP, however, NCP will not grow much beyond it's current confines. But this mess also means NCP will survive. Worse will befall on Shiv Sena though. They will get decimated electorally. But that's not the worse part. By the end of this drama, the only mainstream regional party that was avowedly Hindutva would have turned into Afzal Sena. An utterly despicable way to go! 

--

The Hijabis, the Hijab, and The 'Secularists (India waale)'

The Hijab wearers and Hijabis are two entirely different species. They have different objectives and compulsions. Different history and obviously, different future. The recent Hijab row in KA is not what it seems. It's not about Hijab at all. No one is denying right of a woman to wear Hijab. The argument here is to follow the school uniform, which does not allow Hijab. The girl students can wear Talibani attire from their homes to the school - they may even walk few steps behind their fathers or walk in chains, for anyone to care. But if they want to take education in the school or take exams, then they need to shed Talibani attire, and transform into a normal student. Student, who aspires to learn and not carry the sword of religion everywhere. From the law and from judiciary's perspective, the row is related to the rights of school institutions to manage their own schools. Some schools don't have uniforms, some do. The expectation is for students to follow the mandate School authorities have established. And, if they don't want to follow it then they can enroll into schools that aligns with their dressing preferences. That's it. That's the extent of this whole thing. 

But are these so called students really looking for explanation or even answers on their concerns with dress code? 

The 'Hijabis':

The question for the ' Hijabis' is not the dress code or religious attire. Especially since these Hijabis aren't the one wearing the Hijab. The question is not even the freedom of attire. The real question is, can Hijabis impose the Hijab not only on the hapless Muslim women of India but also, indirectly, on the non-Muslim population of India? Can they impose their regressive, militant and  medieval thought process on forward looking and largely secular country? Can they force the judiciary to move away from reason, rationality, constitution and law? Can they force political parties to toe their line? Can they establish their version of Islam supremacy over everyone? Can they change definition of secularism so much so that Jihadi mindset is now considered as a legitimate Secularism in India? By the way, there's nothing new to this sort of religious imperialism. Whether it's cutting the country into pieces for the sake of religion, to having a different personal law, from having a different govt. body to look after their interests, to having govt. subsidies to travel to Hajj; these Hijabi's have done it all and then some. The list of such 'triumphs' of Hijabis is long and still continuing. At some level, one has to give them credit for being so successful in their mission - they ethnically cleansed Hindus from Kashmir and yet managed to portray Kashmir as a cause for Muslim persecution! 

The Hijab: 

This one is a tough one. Some Muslim ladies obviously like to wear their Hijab. There is nothing wrong in that, their choice. However, considering how in post WWII world has generally progressed, and how the Hijab essentially demarcates line between modern world and not-so-modern world, one need to question the the sudden love towards Hijab. Iran, Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan are some of the few countries that enforces Hijab and these countries are entirely non-democratic. The timeline and scale of enforcement is also varied.  Iran enforced the Hijab only after 1979 and Afghanistan enforced it after 1995. What's more amusing is Iran doesn't impose head-to-toe Burqa the way these so called Muslims 'feminist' students of Karnataka are demanding. Moreover, throughout the history of Islam, the dress code varied per the geographic region. For example, Kashmiri Muslim women always wore traditional Kashmiri clothes till vary recently. Post WWII, situation started to shift when the oil money from Saudis started flowing into rest of the world. The Hijab started appearing conspicuously across non-Arab world. It became the symbol of pure form of religion when in reality, it only represented the effect and impact of hegemony of Saudi brand of Islam.  Perhaps, the Karnataka controversy is just an extension of that agenda? It will be impossible to prove that but it is not far fetched to surmise that  when there is no consistency on Hijab imposition even among the Islamic countries, this particular manufactured controversy is clearly a political and religious agenda setting by Islamists. 

The Secularists (Jamaat-e-Liberals): 

Now, let's talk about worse among the worse. I mean, the absolute filth, bottom of the barrel awfulness. The absolute worse among all mentioned above is not the jihadi mindset, Islamists or foreign money. It's the 'jamaat' of  self proclaimed woke, the so called liberals, the so-called Secularists that are found only in India. These dangerous morons practice a special brand of secularism. That's because these people are not liberal, nor woke and what's worse, they are so far away from Secularism that the French who devised the very concept may just be burying themselves in in Pere-Lachaise. This secular mafia has certain definitive traits. They are staunchly anti-Hindu, they are staunchly anti-India, they are staunchly anti-progress, they are generally staunchly against anything that's rationale, anything that requires dialogue, or requires understanding of context or requires mature dialogue. Moreover, they are staunchly against finding a solution or against resolving any issue. They want to maintain the status quo. Because unresolved issues helps these creatures to survive. They get to yap about it on Twitter, yap further on TV channels, write mind numbingly stupid Op-eds in the newspaper. Somehow these awful people have made into political, judicial and public discourse as well. 

For some reason, the wokenss doesn't apply to caging Muslim women in Hijab. The choice cannot be given to them. The liberalism does not have apply to rights of educational institutions to have dress code. The 'expertise' does not agree with the fact that Islamic jurisprudence does not mandates the burqa! The agenda is to rile up the issue to stratosphere, corner the government, bring the educational institutions to their knees, adversely impact student's right to education and defame the society and the country along the way. The fact these so called liberal, woke, secularists are in agreement with Talibani mindset isn't jarring enough. The reality, as it appears, is that these so called secularists are here to further the Talibani agenda! 

The hope:

But all is not lost. The controversy (and potentially violence) generating religious, quasi-state actors and the non-state 'secular' 'activists' will not be successful in their nefarious design. The Hijab or Burqa is not universally admired or agreed upon across Muslims in India. Time and again, Indian Muslim women have risen above and shown the world their worth. Numerous examples across broad social spectrum have succeeded in variety of fields to emphasize the point that patriarchal structure of their religion can be won over. Similar controversy was generated against Triple Talaq but it failed to garner any traction. Same fate awaits this issue as well. In the meantime, the emergence of Muslim women as a voting block has potential to disrupt electoral structure across the country. The continued success of BJP in numerous state and central elections points towards the potential that Muslim women might be voting for BJP. 

The irony is, though this issue is manufactured through college going Muslim women, it is the Muslim women only who can win this fight. I still have high hopes that this time they will fight. The children of Shah Bano will triumph. 

The Identity of Victimhood

We are celebrating 75 years of independence this year. The achievement is not just merely a number reflecting years our country stayed independent and stayed together but it signifies the immense hard work that has gone into getting our country out of poverty and destitution. From literally running out of food in 1960s to a grain surplus nation, from rationing Milk to a country with one of the highest milk productions. The achievements are too numerous to mention and each one of it is of staggering proportion (Polio eradication!). 

And all this despite our democracy which is lead, generally speaking, by myopic, corrupt and family centric business/mafia enterprises masquerading as political outfits. However, at a macro level, political parties across the spectrum and since independence have done their bit in strengthening democratic fabric. They all fought elections rather than grabbing the power by, well, Power. All political actors abided by the rule of the land and abided by the court rulings. And most importantly, they all accepted people's mandate graciously. But democracy has its limitations. As in, it attracts the crowd that wants to win at any cost. It does not necessarily attract the best and the brightest. It attracts hustlers. The myopic nature of political parties is not the fault with politicians, it's the design fault of the democracy. One of the necessary way to win the elections is to create fear among the electorate. Creating the want or need of agitation is the key ingredient. The lack of mature conversation and dialogue is not a fault with democracy, it's an essential and unfortunate necessary evil. 

Issue manufacturing is almost a requirement for running an election. However, sometimes this issue mongering goes out of hand and threatens not just the mentality of the society but pose grave danger to the future as well. In India, one such issue that's becoming draconian in its reach is the constant sense of victimhood by everyone. Everyone is a victim in India. They are victims of caste, class, religion, gender(s), region, language, food preferences, capitalism, socialism, communism, of history, of future...you can come up with 'n' number of dimension and there will be some group in India that will be grieving and aggrieved. This week NDTV published a column by a Muslim IT professional who is allegedly persecuted as a tenant because, what he surmises, he is a Muslim and a meat eater. Is the writer simply a stupid with a megaphone? Or there's something more to it? 

Discrimination does happen, at all levels, all the time. Theoretically speaking, it should not happen. At least not because of identities such as caste, religion or eating preferences. But to surmise that he is discriminated only because he is a Muslim and that this sort of discrimination is faced only by Muslims and that's why, by extension, India fails as a nation is nefarious attempt to tarnish the image of the hard-working country.  Ask any Marathi person in Mumbai trying to rent or buy an apartment in Gujrati dominated societies how they were discriminated. Ask any Hindu trying to rent or buy an apt in Muslim dominated areas and listen to their stories. Such narratives are numerous and across the broad spectrum of the social fabric.

The key aspect to note is that there is recourse for all such issues. A person can go to the police and file a complaint, go to the court with grievance. The laws are strictly against any sort of discrimination. What does it signify when one,  without using any of these avenues, simply starts shouting from the rooftop? 

The answer is emergence of new 'identity' on a social and political platform -  the identity as a Victim - a perpetually bereaved class. Mind you, Muslims polity and Muslim politics are Granddaddy’s of Victim politics. Everything is an affront to them, and everything is a danger to them. But now game is picked up by everyone. Farmers, despite not paying taxes and getting free electricity are the victims of ....well, for being farmers. Students? Remember the Rohit Vemula suicide controversy? No one knows what exactly happened, yet the unfortunate death of a young person was leveraged by everyone for their own interest and Victimhood was claimed on the basis of caste, religion, student status, student politics on college campus etc. A glass pane is broken in church? - all Christians are now in danger in India - they are all victims of Hindutva, Hinduism, Brahminism....I don't even know what else. Bring a rule to make it easy for persecuted minorities from Islamic nations to come to India? For the reasons no one knows, Muslims in India are suddenly now in danger. The list just goes on and on. And once you claim the status then you are free to do anything in the name of Victimhood. Go on rampage, destroy property, kill people but the so-called journalists and so-called Press will side with you. 

Unfortunately, instead of having a nuanced dialogue political parties act as a megaphone for such incidences. In fact, it is increasingly becoming impossible to discern the reality from fabrication. Is a particular incidence actually an incidence with some merit or it's simply a political stunt? The Delhi University fracas is a great example how issue manufacturing and Victimhood narrative is imposed on public so as to help few political parties and start political careers of some individuals. 

One can argue that this is all part and parcel of the politics. And the real issue is politics has seeped too much into our social fabric (is there even a single social or culture program in India that gets inaugurated by a non-Politician now?) Maybe, the argument has its merits. Not all Christians feel that they are in danger because Barkha Dutt proclaimed that a broken window in a Church tantamount to religious persecution. Not all Muslims feel in danger because a law is made for persecuted minorities of outside nations. Yet and this is where the tire hits the actual road, - no Muslim or Christian organization ever came forward to denounce this narrative setting. No archdiocese, who otherwise will eagerly defend rapist padre in Kerala, has come forward to denounce Barkha Dutt and her drama of birthing Victims. No Muslim organization has come forward and said that Muslims are not and will not be victims of a law that has nothing to do with citizens of India. And that's because it is clear to these organizations that playing the card of Victimhood pays dividend. The constant bombarding of stories that one or the other is a Victim in India, because of other Indians, because of Indian state or a society, in an 'inceptionian' way started forming a narrative in psyche. In a generation or so, people will start hating their own background, their own country, their own society, history, their own civilization. 

By the way, this has happened before. We are still suffering self doubt as a nation because of British imperialists leveraging issue manufacturing and Victimhood complex (Muslims, as usual, were always the victims even during British rule). The self doubt is evident in our foreign policy and military strategies even now.

The reality is, asking political parties to mend their ways is a tall ask. They are not different animals than us. For better or for worse, they are extension of us. If we want to emerge as a strong nation then the work starts at much micro level. We need to become strong in minds, understand the context, not fall for traps and for short term benefits. And, vote accordingly. 

Of course, all this has been said before. I am simply rehashing! 

 

 

Talibans, Talibs and New Age Indian ‘Taliberals’

The speed with which Talibans took over Afghanistan may seem astonishing but there was nothing surprising about it. The question was ‘If’ rather than ‘When’. The American resolve (if there was any such thing!) was vanishing rapidly since Trump came to Presidency. Biden’s poll promise was a pull-back at the earliest as well. Both Presidents acted in their own fashion - blundered through strategically, tactically, geo-politically and logically. The backdoor deals and discussions were happening for last few years. These deals weren’t about what to do with Talibans. The discussions provided space for one superpower to hold on to its last shred of dignity, a past superpower to meddle again to gain some footing on world level and an emerging self-proclaimed superpower to showcase their prowess. Ohh and then there were drug lords – who wanted to ensure heroine keep flowing uninterrupted and oil and gas companies who have been eying Afghanistan’s natural gas reserves for decades now.  All in all, there are so many actors with competing priorities that, having a strong central player as a ruler in Afghanistan was a critical requirement. Requirement of these external parties, not of Afghan people. No one, literally, no one gives a damn about these poor souls. They are proverbial ants in this game of giants.

Talibans trace their ideology to Deoband -  small dusty town in North India. Talibs means students. In this context, students of Deobandi school of Islamic thought. The ideology is conservative, bloody and violent. Something that even Talibans readily agree to. When Talibans first took over Afghanistan in 1990’s they were dubbed as Islamic terrorists’ outfit. They were accepted as legitimate only by UAE and by Pakistan, while rest of the world shunned them. This time though, the soft corner for them is emerging from all quarters. Articles about them being ‘reformed’ are getting printed in western press. And so called public celebrities in India are siding with them. Majority of the people who are showing soft corner for Talibans are self-proclaimed liberals and woke. These new age Taliban sympathizers or ‘Taliberals’ are not united nor do they work towards a central goal. For example, in India the so called woke liberals are opposed to Modi govt. The opposition as a political ideology is natural form of dissent but these self proclaimed ‘secular’ ‘ liberals’ are closet extremists. The goal of  Indian Taliberals is myopic and insidious.  They do not believe in democratic values and to defame the democratically elected govt. in India, they are in the process of throwing their lot with Talibans. The first step is to equate Talibans with Hindu nationalists. The second step is to whitewash Talibani past and highlight phony caste and religious violence in India. Third step is to willfully ignore new cycle of Talibans are unleashing in Afghanistan, especially on women. It’s ironic that if Talibans ever come to power in India, they will be hanging these so called woke liberals first.

But why are these Indian Taliberals dangerous? After all, this same lot sided with Yakub Menon – one of the mastermind behind Bombay bomb blasts that killed over 300 people, who was convicted by Supreme Court of India after due course of law? The same lot opposed Triple Talaq even though the law safeguarded interests of Indian Muslim women and they continue to oppose abrogation of Article 370 even though the law was anti-India and anti-Hindu.

These Taliberals are dangerous because they are now attempting to take their nefarious agenda international and take decisive steps towards siding with India’s sworn enemies. And, the important part is, they are still virtually untouchables in India. They still glide over the rough tides with ease, they still are impervious to justice and law. They still are heavily funded by foreign money. They still have access to NYT, The Economist and most of the foreign press and they are increasingly getting forum in US and European universities. Deeply ensconced within democratic nation and democratic fabrics the Taliberals are getting ready to unleash the cycle of misinformation, agenda driven narration and their habit of equivocating. 

The Talibans are not fighters by any stretch. They can never face a military power. They won because they could wait longer than US but if they ever face any sort of military again, they will simply run away hiding in burqas. They can be defeated but these newly emerging Taliberals are a whole different ball game. The fight will be long but it’s necessary to be on vigil against these new age enemies within.

Note: I did not coin the term 'Taliberals'. It's courtesy of Twitter. Forgot where I saw that term but I thought it's the most apt representation of new age 'woke' 'liberals'

Pan-Islamism - Dying By Multiple Cuts!

Pan-Islamism and solidarity among all Islamic nations have long been a pipe dream throughout Islamic history. And this delusion carried itself further post-1950s as multiple nation-states that professes their allegiance to Islam were established. The Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) was established with a vision of forming a bloc of Islamic nations that stretches from Morocco to Southeast Asia that will counter the western, liberal influence on geopolitics. The reality is far different. There has never been pan-Muslim solidarity throughout the history of Islam. And the situation did not change at all despite the establishment of OIC. And given the competing priorities of some of the strong (and some delusional) Islamic nations, one can safely bet that such unity will continue to be a pipe dream. 

The Israel Question:

The issue of Israel is quite interesting here. It's been going on for so long that it's hard to remember what is it about, to begin with. But the issue did serve its purpose for multiple state actors for decades. Under the guise of fighting with Israel, various Islamic nations of middle-east attempted to either spread their influence or straight up gobble additional geographic areas. For this blog's scope, let's have in-scope only the Arab nations and Iran. That is, let's ignore the Islamic nations of southeast Asia, Africa, and Pakistan. Now, get ready for the whirlpool of competing priorities and messed-up histories! 

Saudi wants to assert itself as the vanguard of Islam. That means taking up every issue - real or imagined, related to Islam. Since Israel - a Jewish state is established literally at the heart of Islam's birthplace, Saudis have to fight against them. Since they are too lazy to fight, they outsourced it to Hamas. But the fight against Israel is rather secondary when it comes to priorities. The priority is to project Saudis are the only ones steadfastly fighting against Israel and as the only true friends of Palestine. That's the important objective. Because they do not want Persians (Iran) or Turkic (Turkey) influence to grow in their backyard. The conflicting ethnicities of these three nations are to be paid attention to here. 

This brings us to Iran - For Iranian theocracy to survive, they have to keep fighting the enemies of the state - real or imagined. These enemies are Israel and US. Since the US is too far for Iran to showcase any sort of 'fighting' spirit against, they have to make do with Israel. All the big and fervent rallies in Tehran aside, the reality is Iran does not possess any military capabilities to harm Israel. So Iran chooses the Saudi way of outsourcing the fight. They support Hizbollah - another terrorist organization. Iran funds them and asks them to die so that they can tell their domestic audience how Shia power is growing and how they are raining hellfire on the Jews. 

Since Saudis are Sunnis who hate Shias and Iran is Shias who hate Sunnis for Sunnis hating them, the fight between them, for all practical purposes, eternal. Hate each other more than they hate Israel! The cause is Israel and the battleground is Palestine, far far away from their lands. 

Now, Turkey is an interesting case here. They believe they are Europeans but they also think they ought to own pretty much the whole of middle-east since it once belonged to the Ottoman empire. And, also, most importantly, they believe all Islamic nations should bow to them since they were the last Caliphs. (The Caliphate was discontinued post-WW 1 by Britishers. For some reason, Gandhi in India decided to start a moment - the 'Khilafat' movement against this British decision. The so-called devoutly Hindu leader wanted to bring back the Caliphate, which will disfranchise Hindus as non-believers. But let's not digress here!) 

The only way Turkey can showcase their military chops, you guessed it right - is by going after Israel. For the record, modern-day Turkey was not like this for the last several decades. The emergence of Erdogan meant the emergence of the delusional self of Turkey. Now Turkey is not only meddling or trying to meddle with Israel but attempting to increase its sphere of influence in various theaters. They want to be an actor in Syria / Lebanon conflict. They are openly siding with Pakistan against India. They are trying to play a role in Azerbaijan - Armenia conflict. They are all over! But this is what happens when one gets free money and free armaments for years. Turkey has been one of the largest recipients of military aid from the US for decades. 

Turkey not only considers their identity as Caliphs of Islam, which puts them at odds with Saudi and Iran, but their Turkic ethnicity is increasingly becoming a focal point of its expansionist mindset. Turkey readily supporting Azarbaijan in a recent skirmish between Armenia and Azarbaijan is an indicator of this new worldview. 

Iran is Persian, a proud one at that. Saudis are Arabs, a proud one at that too. So, not only Turkey is fighting with Saudi Arabs and Irani Persians for a numero uno position in the Islamic world, both Irani and Saudis are worried about ethnic Turks overpowering them again as the Ottomans once did. All in all, it's an excruciatingly confusing theater of violent ethnic-nationalistic-Islamic secretariat conflict. 

This brings us back to the recent development of the UAE embracing Israel. For the last several decades this anti-Israel mindset had a great hold over the Islamic nation bloc's foreign policy. The first break in the rank was Egypt deciding to be diplomatic with Israel in 1979 and then Jordan following the course in 1994. However, for the next two decades, the so-called resistance in Palestine intensified further. Till the lull that happened in the mid-to-late part of the 2010s. As the realization that the Palestine issue is no longer critical to even Israel and the fact that Palestine is nothing but a pawn leveraged by external powers to serve their interests sets in, more Arab countries will join the bandwagon of being friends with Israel.  

However, this does not mean the state actors, the self-proclaimed vanguard of Islam, will stop their attempt to establish hegemony. That will continue. It will only need a new enemy. And the whole cycle will begin again. 

The Proverbial Marathi Manoos and Thakrey's Party (aka Shiv Sena)

It is nauseating to see Shiv Sena ('Thakrey party' henceforth!) spewing venom in the name of Marathi manoos again. I always been wary of this so called ideology. I am not from Mumbai, though I am as Marathi as one can get, this Marathi manoos philosophy gets hollower as you move away from Mumbai. And by the time you hit Nagpur - which is the second capital of Maharashtra, this Marathi Manoos thing is nothing but a drum that's already broken. But fortunately, this issue has lived its life and heading towards a quiet exit. That's because this political outfit isn't going to last long! 

I am extremely proud of Marathi language, Marathi history, Marathi culture and everything Marathi. I am privileged to be born in Marathi land, Marathi house and to Marathi family. It must have been punya-karma of my last birth that my mother tongue is Marathi and I thank my parents that they put me in Marathi 'medium' for my education. I know history of Maratha empire by heart, by dates, by battles fought, by battles won and lost. I can recite the poem on Shivaji Maharaj by Kavi Bhushan

"साजि चतुरंग सैन अंग में उमंग धरि
सरजा सिवाजी जंग जीतन चलत है"

And this is where this political 'ideology' is lost to me. You see, Kavi Bhushan was not a Marathi. In fact, if to go with the typical slur by Thakrey party then he was a 'Bhaiyya'. Now, what do we have to say about him in current circumstances? Do we kick him out of Maharashtra? Call him names? Tell world that he is taking jobs of Marathi poet? Even though he wrote his poems exalting greatness of Shivaji Maharaj in Braj-bhasha in current political situation, he will be kicked out for being a bhaiyya and for using non-Marathi language to talk about great Shivaji! 

The ideology or the confidence should be strong enough to assimilate and make non-Marathis into strong Marathis. Alas, that's a lot of work and who has time for that?

Thakrey party is a reactionary force, brought to birth with congress moneybags and meant only to keep commies at bay. To that objective, they have succeeded. At one point MH cultural and literary life had strong odor of communism and that stench could really have spread into political arena. Fortunately it did not since whatever small political space left by Congress was slowly taken over by Thakrey's. 

But the objective that was met, was of Congress's. Not of this so called Hindutva leaning party or ideology. In fact, Thakrey's party barely posed any serious political challenge to Congress. Even after Congress split right in the middle with formation of NCP. The seats that Thakrey's party won in 1995 when they formed first non-Congress state government in MH with the help of BJP - their highest, was in late 60s. Guess the number of seats they won in 2019 elections - late 50s. 

In today's world, Thakrey's party's stance was only to gain power. Nothing else. They attempted to create besieged feeling among Marathi masses to carve out political space. But that was very much limited to Mumbai and its immediate surroundings. Beyond that geography, the Marathi manoos talk never carried any weight or meaning. For that, they relied on Hindutva ideology. They were firebrand for sure, but again, it was only to serve their political purposes. MH is a fairly right-wing leaning state. Shivaji Maharaj still rules the hearts of masses, so even sonia's secularism infested Congress is decidedly Hindutva leaning. With anti non-Marathi stance and organizationally weak outside of MH to gain from their Hindutva brand means Thakrey's party not only remained a decidedly regional party but they largly  remained a local, Mumbai area-centric outfit.   

Thakrey's party and their thinking heads believe that harping on Marathi Manoos and creating controversy by beating this dead horse will help them survive. Not sure if this political maneuvering makes any sense.  It never gave them life to begin with, so, for that reactionary political plank to pay any dividend now is nothing but delusional. The proverbial Marathi manoos that Thakrey's party supposedly stood for has moved on long time ago. The results of last Bruhan Mumbai Municipal Elections (BMC) are a clear indication that this Marathi manoos now identifies itself more with a 'Gujju bhai' lead BJP. The voting share of Thakrey party in non-Mumbai areas of MH has at best remained stagnant and worse, have been completely devoured by BJP lead by Devendra Fadnavis's governance oriented personality. 

Another fun fact - despite Congress's massive reversals in political fortunes, the vote share of Thakrey party in 2019 MH assembly elections is barely a percentage more than Congress party!

This brings me to Rhea Chakraborty saga. There is no evidence of any connection between her and Thakrey party. At least, there should not be. But there is some life to this conjuncture. Otherwise, why would Tharkey's unofficial spokesperson and their mouthpiece has taken extraordinary steps to either divert the attention of the media and public away from this saga involving Rhea? And when it is apparent it is not working, why are they going ludicrous extent to somehow connect this to Mumbai pride and Marathi manoos? 

This is because, Thakrey party and Rhea are not that different. Talent less, morally bankrupt, and full of shady dealings. Somehow them being connected through either Sushant Singh Rajput's death or through money laundering or through drugs makes perfect sense. 

In any case, all this will quiet down post Bihar election and most importantly, post fall of Thakrey party MH government. People will move on and the sordid saga involving Rhea will be relegated to last pages of the news paper. And, this party of Thakrey's will join the long list of reactionary regional political outfit that ran the due course and went down without a bloop!